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Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

With the trade deadline just three weeks away, and all signs pointing towards the Twins being sellers at the deadline, contending teams are starting to take stock of what the Twins have to offer. Despite being in a down year (relative to his normal production) and on an expiring contract, Dozier remains one of the top players the Twins have to offer at the deadline.
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I get that there is still somewhat of an ongoing debate about whether or not it is the best decision for the Twins to move Dozier at the deadline or wait until this winter and give him a qualifying offer. While I agree that both sides of the debate are still up for discussion that is not the point of this article. Instead, we will be looking into which teams have the most to gain by adding Brian Dozier to their roster before the deadline to try and assess what kind of value Dozier might have.


Boston Red Sox

For the past decade, the Boston Red Sox have been a team with very little concern about second base with Dustin Pedroia manning the position. However, with the combination of age and injury, question marks have started to arise for the Red Sox at second. Pedroia has played just three games all season and is currently on the disabled-list with no clear timetable for his return.

With Pedroia out, the Red Sox have used a combination of Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt at second. Nunez is coming off a couple of okay years in 2016 and 2017 (combined 5.1 fWAR), but has been absolutely dreadful this season to the tune of a -0.4 fWAR. On the other hand, Holt has been a better option for the Red Sox at second, but his best attribute to the team is as a utility man so he isn’t exactly their full-time answer for second base.

With Dozier on the team, he provides an immediate upgrade over Nunez. He also brings a lot more upside than does Holt, who has just a career 4.3 fWAR spread across seven Major League seasons.


Los Angeles Dodgers

If there is a contending team that would see the biggest upgrade at the second base position by adding Brian Dozier, it is the Los Angeles Dodgers. A couple of years ago the Dodgers were linked as the team with the most interest in trading for Brian Dozier, but those talks inevitably feel through as the Dodgers decided to go for Logan Forsythe instead.

That move hasn’t panned out too well for them, as Forsythe had an okay season last year, but has been terrible in Dodger blue this year with a .202/.260/.301 slash line to go along with just two home runs, good for a 54 wRC+ (100 being league average). The other main option for the Dodgers at second base has been an aging Chase Utley. Much like Forsythe, Utley has had a down year at the plate with an OPS of .621 and a wRC+ of 71.

Combined the Dodgers have received -0.6 fWAR at the second base position in 2018, which ranks 28th in all of baseball. By comparison, Brian Dozier has been worth 1.0 fWAR this season and is on pace for a league average season despite how poorly it seems like he has played. That alone would be a big upgrade for the Dodgers.


Milwaukee Brewers

Another contending team that could use an upgrade at second base is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers improved on an 86-win team from a year ago with the additions of Lornezo Cain and Christian Yelich, along with the breakout performances from Josh Hader and Jesus Aguilar. However, one area where the Brewers could use some help is in the middle-infield.

Coming off a strong season in 2016, Jonathan Villar has been nothing but a disappointment over the last two years. This year Villar is hitting .265/.312/.388 with six home runs. He also has just 13 stolen bases this year, so the additional production he has brought on the base paths has been limited.

The Brewers have also tried out Hernan Perez and the recently DFA’d Eric Sogard at second base, but neither has given them much production. With the Brewers squarely in the middle of a divisional race with the Chicago Cubs, they will almost certainly be looking to upgrade one of their weakest areas on the team.


San Francisco Giants

The Giants made a statement this winter that they wanted to compete in 2018 with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. Even though things havenot gone exactly as planned with their pitching staff, the Giants find themselves at 48-45 and just three games out in the NL West and four games back of the second NL Wild Card position.

Joe Panik has served as the team’s second baseman since their World Series run in 2014 but has dealt with some injuries this year. Panik missed all of May after having surgery on his left thumb and was just placed back on the DL on Saturday with a groin injury. Even when Panik has been healthy, he has struggled his way to a .654 OPS.

With an organization that clearly has a mind set on winning now, and a team that is very much in the hunt, it would not be a surprise if the Giants look for a short-term answer at second base as they try to continue their push back into the postseason.


Other Available Second Basemen

Now that we have established that there will be a market for second basemen at the trade deadline, the other thing to consider is what other second basemen are available for teams to choose from. Unfortunately for the Twins, the list of seemingly available second basemen is pretty strong.

Scooter Gennett – The Cincinnati Reds second basemen has been one of the better players at that position in major league baseball over the past couple of seasons. So far this year Scooter Genett has a .322/.366/.509 slash line with 14 home runs, and ranks fifth among all second basemen with a 2.9 fWAR. Gennett is under control through 2019, but with the Reds being unlikely to compete next season they should be looking to move him now to maximize his value.

Jed Lowrie – The A’s have exceeded many people’s expectations this year, and a big part of that has been the play from Jed Lowrie, whose 3.3 fWAR ranks second among all MLB second basemen. The A’s have gotten hot of late and pulled within six games of the Mariners for the second AL Wild Card spot. If the A’s can stay hot over the next few weeks that will be great news for the Twins as they will look to be buyers instead of sellers at the deadline, thus taking Lowrie off the market.

Starlin Castro – Another second baseman who could be on the move by the end of this month is Starlin Castro. If nothing else, the salary conscious Marlins will be looking to get his contract off their books. Despite being in his eighth MLB season, Castro still is only 28 and under control for $11 million in 2019 with a team option of $16 million in 2020 ($1 million buyout). For every team except the Marlins this is a pretty affordable contract for a player who is still producing at a quality level.

Given these circumstances, I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to wait until right up before the deadline before Brian Dozier is traded away (if he does get traded). I think buying teams will be waiting to see what happens with Scooter Gennett and Jed Lowrie before they make a move on Brian Dozier. I also think the Twins might hold off on Dozier as long as they can, hoping he might get on one of his patented hot streaks and increase his trade value before the deadline.


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123 Comments

 

you'd have to ask teh team, in the middle of a playoff race, that sent Gray down that question.....

 

Like the Twins sending Gibson down in a playoff race last year? 

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nicksaviking
Jul 12 2018 12:48 PM

 

- If the playoff game was tomorrow, I probably wouldn't start Gray over Gibson. If it was in 3 months I would certainly think long and hard about it. Gray has been a better pitcher throughout their careers, especially when you adjust for park. It's not even that close. 

 

- Fans don't matter. What we do, say and think has no bearing on how teams operate their roster. 

 

- Since the start of 2017.Jon Gray's GB% = 47.5%.Kyle Gibson's GB% = 49.7%. Jon Gray K%/BB% = 26.5%/6.8%. Gibson's = 19.7%/10.5%. What exactly makes Gray a bad fit for Coors yet Gibson a good one?

 

Gray is a bad fit because four-seamers aren't naturally supposed to create groundballs but he is or the team is making him throw them almost exclusively low in the zone surely in an attempt to limit HR. They've been getting crushed with an ISO on his four-seamer of .234 this year, likely because the pitch location is so predictable.

 

He's pitching like a sinkerballer without a sinkerball.

 

Gray is a bad fit because four-seamers aren't naturally supposed to create groundballs but he is or the team is making him throw them almost exclusively low in the zone surely in an attempt to limit HR. They've been getting crushed with an ISO on his four-seamer of .234 this year, likely because the pitch location is so predictable.

 

He's pitching like a sinkerballer without a sinkerball.

 

4 seam fastballs get crushed because they miss middle up, which is what Gray's biggest problem has been (command), not because they consistently stay low in the zone

 

 

I never said the negotiation hinged on those splits.It was only an example of ways Dozier's value can be further deflated.As I said in the last post, there wasn't a market for him last year.There isn't much of a market this year and he now only a two month rental.

 

I guess we can sell the "Dozier gets hot in the second half angle" but then that is only lip service.What team is going to part with anything much by pinning their hopes on that?

 

A team that wants to win a title and thinks that they are just a 2B who plays solid defense and could give you 20+ homers away from winning it?

    • Thrylos, Mike Sixel, jkcarew and 1 other like this

 

A team that wants to win a title and thinks that they are just a 2B who plays solid defense and could give you 20+ homers away from winning it?

That is all very cute, but we know what happened last year.

 

 

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Aerodeliria
Jul 24 2018 09:37 PM

 

how so? I mean, I'd rather get fifty cents than nothing.....

Well, that's not exactly true. Getting a minor league player who has basically reached his potential is worse than nothing because the player simply becomes someone who takes up a position...

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mngopherguy
Jul 24 2018 11:47 PM

 

Yes I do. If there's one thing the new regime has done is show ownership creative ways to acquire better talent by taking on additional payroll or eating more of a bad contract.

 

You may be right, you definitely trust them more than I do.  

I would be mildly surprised if the Twins don't get someone mildly interesting for Dozier. There is zero risk in signing him right before he hits free agency, and potentially a lot of reward for one year. And he's cheap.

I would be mildly surprised if the Twins don't get someone mildly interesting for Dozier. There is zero risk in signing him right before he hits free agency, and potentially a lot of reward for one year. And he's cheap.

No doubt we will be surprised. Sadly I doubt it will be pleasantly.
    • Dman likes this

A couple unexpected suitors for the Doze

 

https://www.mlbtrade...ian-dozier.html

 

Judging by the returns for Escobar and Pressly I'll suggest from the Giants:

 

Either/Iether/both

 

Blake Rivera #23 MLB Pipeline

Camilo Doval #21 MLB Pipeline

 

As for the other team...well...let's just say I hope that doesn't happen

 

EDIT: might consider the Taiwanese Yu-Tang-Clan dude

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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 28 2018 01:08 PM

Cleveland has a nice system, and it never hurts to pillage from it for 2 months of Dozier... That said, the guy that fits our need is Mejia, but that would be an overpay on Cleveland's part. I woudln't mind Shane Bieber or Bobby Bradley either.

 

The Giants system seems a bit weaker, though a few names woudl be good returns. Chris Shaw would fit into the teams' needs. Aramis Garcia might fit there too.

 

Cleveland has a nice system, and it never hurts to pillage from it for 2 months of Dozier... That said, the guy that fits our need is Mejia, but that would be an overpay on Cleveland's part. I woudln't mind Shane Bieber or Bobby Bradley either.

 

The Giants system seems a bit weaker, though a few names woudl be good returns. Chris Shaw would fit into the teams' needs. Aramis Garcia might fit there too.

 

If they trade with the Giants I would try and get Santos or Corry.Both young pitchers with upside.

 

From Cleveland I would take Oviedo or maybe Nick Sandlin and something extra added.

 

I would try and stick with young pitching that has upside.It shouldn't hurt teams too much to those types of players up because they are further away and because they are further away you can maximize the value you receive in trade.

    • wyowib likes this

 

Cleveland has a nice system, and it never hurts to pillage from it for 2 months of Dozier... That said, the guy that fits our need is Mejia, but that would be an overpay on Cleveland's part. I woudln't mind Shane Bieber or Bobby Bradley either.

 

The Giants system seems a bit weaker, though a few names woudl be good returns. Chris Shaw would fit into the teams' needs. Aramis Garcia might fit there too.

 

?

 

CLE already traded Mejia.....unless they have another one.

    • Andrew Thares likes this
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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 28 2018 03:39 PM

 

?

 

CLE already traded Mejia.....unless they have another one.

oops... well there's that.

    • Mike Sixel and tvagle like this
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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 28 2018 03:41 PM

 

If they trade with the Giants I would try and get Santos or Corry.Both young pitchers with upside.

 

From Cleveland I would take Oviedo or maybe Nick Sandlin and something extra added.

 

I would try and stick with young pitching that has upside.It shouldn't hurt teams too much to those types of players up because they are further away and because they are further away you can maximize the value you receive in trade.

 

Those aren't bad gets either, but with all the young upside pitching we have right now, there's a real 40 man issue here, unless these guys don't need to go on the 40 man any time soon. The team needs an ML ready C as well as a 1B/3B/DH type.I'd probably go for a hitter here unless Cleveland is dangling someone with ace potential at us (and I don't think they would). 

With this news maybe the 'Stros come calling on the Doze...it's a thought

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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 29 2018 05:27 AM

 

With this news maybe the 'Stros come calling on the Doze...it's a thought

I think it would be longer than a week and a half on the bench to get them to get a replacement. If he's out for the season, then yes.

YES, we actually are in agreement here.

Remember the Dozier thread last year? Seems hardly worth it to have a reprisal of what happened there. I would be interested to know what kind of prospect we'd get. I actually agree with beckmt. Hard to imagine doing much better than the QO. THat isn't what I want the Twins to do because I feel Dozier has to be moved at this point. He is not a fit here


Just a question, a qualifying offer is for 1 year if I'm correct, who is a better fit at 2nd base for the Twins next year?? Someone who hasn't even played there yet?

 

I think it would be longer than a week and a half on the bench to get them to get a replacement. If he's out for the season, then yes.

Houston trading for Doz might work, but they missed a much better opportunity with Esco.

Anyone mention the Red Sox? Nunez isn't a very good 2nd baseman and Dustin P might be out for awhile yet.

 

With the Monster in right, it might be a good match.

Anyone mention the Red Sox? Nunez isn't a very good 2nd baseman and Dustin P might be out for awhile yet.

With the Monster in right, it might be a good match.


I think they were mentioned. I read that they are worried about adding salary and it's luxury tax ramifications
Offers must be really poor for Dozier. I am getting they gamble on qualifying offer for draft pick. Would be nice to start giving younger guys some at bats.

 

Anyone mention the Red Sox? Nunez isn't a very good 2nd baseman and Dustin P might be out for awhile yet.

 

With the Monster in right, it might be a good match.

they moved the Monster???!?!!

    • Twins33 and TFRazor like this

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