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Article: Game Thread: Twins@Mariners 5/25 9:10PM

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:59 AM
The Twins kick off a 3-game series in Seattle tonight and I’m going to be serious for once in my life.I’d like everyone’s attention as I...
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Interesting article about Buxton

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:59 AM
I enjoyed the article linked below about Buxton. As you can see, the Twins and lots of other folks seem to think that he could be a hall...
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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Top Prospect Timelines

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 09:52 AM
Twins Daily Roundtable is a new weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respo...
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Hanley Ramirez DFA'd

Other Baseball Today, 09:48 AM
Red Sox DFA'd Hanley, Thoughts?   https://www.mlb.com/...ent/c-278245918
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Article: Did Minnesota Just Summon the Ghost of Christmas...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:54 AM
In the Charles Dickens classic, A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by three ghosts.The last of these phantoms, the Ghost of C...
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Opportunity Cost

For Twins fans, the last couple of weeks have brought one piece of good news after another. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have built on last year’s playoff team by overhauling the pitching staff. Two new starters and multiple relievers have been added to help fix Minnesota’s biggest weakness. Add in the signing of Logan Morrison to bolster the offense and it’s been an almost perfect offseason.

That being said, there has been some collateral damage throughout this process. Players who were poised to break camp with the team will be starting in the minors or ending up on another roster. Who has been impacted the most by the current roster’s construction?
Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitcher Effect
Ervin Santana is going to start the year on the disabled list but there was still other arms vying for a role in the rotation. Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson seemed like locks and both players should still be in the rotation on Opening Day. Beyond those two players, the rest of the rotation has been impacted by the additions of Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn.

Adalberto Mejia was penciled into the back-end of the rotation as spring training began. However, he now seems destined for Rochester to join a stacked rotation with many of the team’s top pitching prospects. Phil Hughes also had a chance at a rotation role. With the current roster, it seems like he will be shifted to the bullpen. Anibal Sanchez saw his Twins tenure come to an end on Sunday even if it was a long-shot for him to make the rotation.

Pre Off-Season Rotation: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, Phil Hughes

Current Rotation: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson

Relief Pitcher Effect
Minnesota’s bullpen had some bright spots last season but there were still some question marks as the offseason began. There was very little late-inning experience and it was hard to know who would be called upon for some of the biggest outs in the game. Adding pieces like Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke might have shifted the bullpen into one of the team’s strengths.

Some less experienced players are going to find themselves in the minors to start the year. Tyler Kinely was selected in the Rule 5 Draft but the bullpen is already crowded. The Twins could work out a deal with Miami to keep him in the minors. Hughes is going to have to take the place of another arm. Names like Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss and Gabriel Moya are going to have to continue to prove themselves in the minors as they wait for their opportunity.

Pre Off-Season Bullpen: Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed

Current Bullpen: Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly, Zack Duke, Taylor Rogers, Phil Hughes

Designated Hitter Effect
Even after having offseason surgery, Miguel Sano will continue to get time on the defensive side of the ball. There may be a time in his career where he is relegated to a designated hitter role. Over the last two seasons, Joe Mauer has averaged 23 starts at DH. Other names like Kennys Vargas and Robbie Grossman entered camp with a chance to earn some time as the designated hitter. Logan Morrison’s signing changed some of those plans.

Kennys Vargas seems like the odd-man out in the new DH equation. His lack of defensive position makes him more replaceable than someone like Robbie Grossman. Minnesota can put Grossman on the bench and have him serve in a fourth outfielder role. Vargas seems redundant with more proven hitters like Morrison, Sano and Mauer ahead of him on the DH depth chart.

Pre Off-Season DH Options: Robbie Grossman, Kennys Vargas, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer
Current DH Options: Logan Morrison, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer


Who has been impacted the most by the moves of this off-season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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66 Comments

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ashburyjohn
Mar 13 2018 11:35 AM

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

Age surely plays a role in this. Kershaw came up to the majors at 20. Being on an innings limit at that age would seem standard.

 

I compared game logs for Mejia and Berrios while writing my erlier post in the Lefties thread, and Berrios did indeed go deeper into games than Mejia during his stint in the high minors. But then, I'm not claiming Mejia has the same high-end potential than Berrios. Just - not so fast - let's not give up on him as a possible workhorse quite yet.

 

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

Strange comp. Mejia is no Kershaw. Kershaw spent only one full year in the minors and pitchedon average more than 6 inning per game since he was 22. So Mejia can be Kershaw. Love the optimism

    • h2oface likes this

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

I remember during the Dozier rumors that anytime a Twins fan would question JDL or any other Dodger prospects small amount of IP per season the Dodgers fans would reply that they don't allow any of their SP prospects to pitch deep into games routinely.

So some kind of Dodger development plan? I don't know. I never checked to back this up.

Just looked at Brock Stewart, in the two seasons before his MLB callup he averaged less than six innings and it's not because he was pitching badly...based on the stats. So maybe true about the Dodgers? I'm not going to go through all their prospects to find out. Plus injuries etc may skew the numbers and be even more work to weed out.

Strange comp. Mejia is no Kershaw. Kershaw spent only one full year in the minors and pitched on average more than 6 inning per game since he was 22. So Mejia can be Kershaw. Love the optimism


Wasn't meant to be a comp. I'm just curious if it's common for any milb pitcher to average that many innings? I don't know. I just looked at Kershaw because there is zero doubt he's a great pitcher.

I'm genuinely curious how often milb pitchers average 6+ per start.
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ashburyjohn
Mar 13 2018 05:49 PM

Wasn't meant to be a comp. I'm just curious if it's common for any milb pitcher to average that many innings? I don't know. I just looked at Kershaw because there is zero doubt he's a great pitcher.

I'm genuinely curious how often milb pitchers average 6+ per start.

Going the other direction from Kershaw, how about Corey Kluber, who is undeniably a fine pitcher but who took a while to hit his stride. In 2011 at age 25 he made 27 starts at AAA Columbus, totaling 150 innings. That's just above five and a half innings - approximately his rate the previous 3 seasons too. The next season he was also at Columbus and started 21 games for 125 innings - stepping up to nearly 6 innings per at age 26.

 

Carlos Carrasco by contrast looks like he was averaging 6 innings per start for 5 years in the minors.

 

Think of some other pitchers and see what else you find.

 

Grossman is SCARY in the outfield.He has run into Santana, Polanco and Buxton.He made more errors than all LFers in the league in 2016 in just SEVENTY FIVE games.

 

I don't understand why people keep referring to him as a "fourth outfielder". That means if someone goes down he is next man up out there.

He was better in 2017 and he was better prior to 2016 in the field. He had a bad year with the glove in 2016. I'm not sure why - maybe he had some communication issues playing with some young guys, maybe he didn't put as much work into that side of the ball that year. I think I remember him acknowledging some struggles and putting extra work in to get better during the offseason prior to last year.

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AWOLNATION_11
Mar 14 2018 07:47 AM

 

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

I'm not so much concerned that they wasted $417,000, but glad that they have the type of relationship with Pohlad that they could pivot to Lynn even though it was a waste of $417,000.  

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ashburyjohn
Mar 14 2018 10:37 AM

I'm not so much concerned that they wasted $417,000, but glad that they have the type of relationship with Pohlad that they could pivot to Lynn even though it was a waste of $417,000.  

I continue to believe that Pohlad doesn't stoop to that level of detail in the business. He likely does two big things, in conjunction with Dave St Peter: sets a general budget limit, and is in the approval chain for any contract longer than two years. Contracts of no more than two years will not be a likely burden to the next GM, if such a change would prove to be necessary. (If the front office were on thin ice, that approval process might become active for any multi-year contract.)

I think Kennys Vargas is out.He has the potential to be a David Ortiz type hitter.But there's that word again - potential.Good luck to you, Kennys.

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Brock Beauchamp
Mar 14 2018 11:50 AM

I continue to believe that Pohlad doesn't stoop to that level of detail in the business. He likely does two big things, in conjunction with Dave St Peter: sets a general budget limit, and is in the approval chain for any contract longer than two years. Contracts of no more than two years will not be a likely burden to the next GM, if such a change would prove to be necessary. (If the front office were on thin ice, that approval process might become active for any multi-year contract.)

Yeah. I suspect the front office had to go to ownership hat in hand to sign Lynn but I doubt Sanchez was even in the discussion.
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ashburyjohn
Mar 14 2018 12:05 PM

Yeah. I suspect the front office had to go to ownership hat in hand to sign Lynn but I doubt Sanchez was even in the discussion.

Unless adding Lynn was going to top the agreed-on budget cap, I can imagine DSP or JP saying, "put your hat back on and get outta here. Why are you even bothering me? One year? This is what I pay you to decide." :)

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Brock Beauchamp
Mar 14 2018 12:17 PM

 

Unless adding Lynn was going to top the agreed-on budget cap, I can imagine DSP or JP saying, "put your hat back on and get outta here. Why are you even bothering me? One year? This is what I pay you to decide." :)

Yeah, my point is that I doubt they had clearance for Lynn in the original budget. They even talked about being done with moves before that point, which indicates they didn't have much space left to spend.

    • ashburyjohn likes this

Vargas is a good player. Fans who say otherwise are bad players. :P

 

Not ever has he averaged 6 innings a game. That is not a number 3.Swinging strike number is average. WHIP is way above average. They see it and don't swing at it and get a walk or the eventually see one and get a hit. As he will turn 25 there would be a lot of development in a short period of time,

Arrieta, Wacha, Tanaka... none of them average 6 innings. Arrieta only 5.5. I'd consider all of those guy's 2's or 3's.  League average for S/M % was 9.8% so he was above average. WHIP was high, yes but he had a below average HR/9 of 1.19 which means a slightly higher whip than average will play.... Also it was his rookie season, not many players come out and dominate rookie year. And to remind you I'm not saying he's a number 3 RIGHT NOW. Saying he could be with development.

 

Arrieta, Wacha, Tanaka... none of them average 6 innings. Arrieta only 5.5. I'd consider all of those guy's 2's or 3's.  League average for S/M % was 9.8% so he was above average. WHIP was high, yes but he had a below average HR/9 of 1.19 which means a slightly higher whip than average will play.... Also it was his rookie season, not many players come out and dominate rookie year. And to remind you I'm not saying he's a number 3 RIGHT NOW. Saying he could be with development.

Yup Arrietta had a bad season for him. That may have cost him a lot of money. He still got a great contract based on the prior years. 

Swing and miss numbers are nice. Contact was the problem.An .850 ops against is not very good considering he had a slightly below average hr/9. League averageops was around .750

Some pitchers with command develop late. The issue is quality of pitches besides a slider.

 

Arrieta, Wacha, Tanaka... none of them average 6 innings. Arrieta only 5.5. I'd consider all of those guy's 2's or 3's.  League average for S/M % was 9.8% so he was above average. WHIP was high, yes but he had a below average HR/9 of 1.19 which means a slightly higher whip than average will play.... Also it was his rookie season, not many players come out and dominate rookie year. And to remind you I'm not saying he's a number 3 RIGHT NOW. Saying he could be with development.

Bob Hemelin could havehad a great career, but did not. Could be is far far different than is.Swing and miss 9.8%,is nice an ops for the other team was .822 was .750 overall. He is better than Slegers but you never know, Slegers could develop into a number 3


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