Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Game Thread: Twins vs Rangers, 7:10pm cdt 6/22/2018 ad

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:31 PM
The order o' tonight's service will be as follows... Would the congregation please rise for the singing hymn #25 "Nothing but Raindrops"...
Full topic ›

Article: The Gib is Up, Kyle Is For Real

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:29 PM
There’s no need to remind you of what Kyle Gibson was, we’re all aware. Early on in the 2017 season, the former first round pick looked l...
Full topic ›

Interesting article about Buxton

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:57 PM
I enjoyed the article linked below about Buxton. As you can see, the Twins and lots of other folks seem to think that he could be a hall...
Full topic ›

Article: Is Paul Molitor the Right Man to Lead the Twins?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:29 PM
Shortly after they hired Paul Molitor as manager in November of 2014, the Twins invited me to Target Field for a one-on-one interview wit...
Full topic ›

Article: Let's Talk About Eduardo Escobar

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:03 PM
Eduardo Escobar's day at the park ended shortly after a Rick Porcello fastball bounced off the vulnerable part of the arm just above the...
Full topic ›

Opportunity Cost

For Twins fans, the last couple of weeks have brought one piece of good news after another. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have built on last year’s playoff team by overhauling the pitching staff. Two new starters and multiple relievers have been added to help fix Minnesota’s biggest weakness. Add in the signing of Logan Morrison to bolster the offense and it’s been an almost perfect offseason.

That being said, there has been some collateral damage throughout this process. Players who were poised to break camp with the team will be starting in the minors or ending up on another roster. Who has been impacted the most by the current roster’s construction?
Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitcher Effect
Ervin Santana is going to start the year on the disabled list but there was still other arms vying for a role in the rotation. Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson seemed like locks and both players should still be in the rotation on Opening Day. Beyond those two players, the rest of the rotation has been impacted by the additions of Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn.

Adalberto Mejia was penciled into the back-end of the rotation as spring training began. However, he now seems destined for Rochester to join a stacked rotation with many of the team’s top pitching prospects. Phil Hughes also had a chance at a rotation role. With the current roster, it seems like he will be shifted to the bullpen. Anibal Sanchez saw his Twins tenure come to an end on Sunday even if it was a long-shot for him to make the rotation.

Pre Off-Season Rotation: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, Phil Hughes

Current Rotation: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson

Relief Pitcher Effect
Minnesota’s bullpen had some bright spots last season but there were still some question marks as the offseason began. There was very little late-inning experience and it was hard to know who would be called upon for some of the biggest outs in the game. Adding pieces like Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke might have shifted the bullpen into one of the team’s strengths.

Some less experienced players are going to find themselves in the minors to start the year. Tyler Kinely was selected in the Rule 5 Draft but the bullpen is already crowded. The Twins could work out a deal with Miami to keep him in the minors. Hughes is going to have to take the place of another arm. Names like Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss and Gabriel Moya are going to have to continue to prove themselves in the minors as they wait for their opportunity.

Pre Off-Season Bullpen: Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed

Current Bullpen: Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly, Zack Duke, Taylor Rogers, Phil Hughes

Designated Hitter Effect
Even after having offseason surgery, Miguel Sano will continue to get time on the defensive side of the ball. There may be a time in his career where he is relegated to a designated hitter role. Over the last two seasons, Joe Mauer has averaged 23 starts at DH. Other names like Kennys Vargas and Robbie Grossman entered camp with a chance to earn some time as the designated hitter. Logan Morrison’s signing changed some of those plans.

Kennys Vargas seems like the odd-man out in the new DH equation. His lack of defensive position makes him more replaceable than someone like Robbie Grossman. Minnesota can put Grossman on the bench and have him serve in a fourth outfielder role. Vargas seems redundant with more proven hitters like Morrison, Sano and Mauer ahead of him on the DH depth chart.

Pre Off-Season DH Options: Robbie Grossman, Kennys Vargas, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer
Current DH Options: Logan Morrison, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer


Who has been impacted the most by the moves of this off-season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

  • dbminn and nclahammer like this

  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

66 Comments

My prediction

Catchers: Castro , Wilson (2)
Infielders: Mauer, Morrison, Vargas, Dozier, Polanco , Escobar , Sano , Aybar. (8)
Outfielders: Rosie, Buck Ya , Max
Robbie Grossman (4)

Pitchers SP : Berrios, Odorizzi, Lynn, Gibson (4)

Relievers : Rodney, Pressly , Reed , Duke , Rogers , Kinley , Hughes


Top AAA options : Garver , Ehire Adrianza , Nick Gordon , Zach Granite , Curtiss, Slegers ,May , Gonsalves , Romero, Moya , Reed.
7 Relievers w/ Hughes as the long-man. *** Hildenberger*** starting yr. off as 8th inning set-up guy for AAA Rochester . (prob just April and maybe May)

 

Imo, this what "should" happen.

 

Bullpen: Have Alan Buesnitz and Adalberto Mejia round out the last 2 spots (has experience). AAA depth; Curtiss, Reed, Moya, Kinley (trade Aaron Slegers and Tyler Duffey to Fish) are next in line.

If you are suggesting that the Twins trade Slegers and Duffy to make room for Kinley, I don't think that would --- or should --- happen. At this point, with 2 weeks left in ST, Kinley is going to have to flash some real magic to make this club. He doesn't appear to be the second coming ofJohan Santana, so I don't think we'll regret losing him.

It's pretty clear the Twins signed Morrison because they think he's better than Vargas. They were essentially given the opportunity to sign Morrison - knowing that they'd lose Kennys if they did it.They took the deal.

 

It's too bad, like others have said Kennys looks like a guy who can hit 30+ homers with 500 AB.But Morrison hit 38 last year, and it appears the Twins prefer the sure thing over giving Vargas a shot. So be it.Here's hoping Kennys catches on with another team.I sure hope it ain't in the AL, because I'd hate seeing him hit 35 HRs for anyone in the Central, or the Red Sox, or frankly any team the Twins play more than once a year.

    • Riverbrian and MN_ExPat like this
Photo
killertwinfan
Mar 12 2018 06:34 AM

 

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that? What a nice piece to have waiting at AAA but tough for the Duff Man. He certainly seemed likely to make the team before this crazy offseason.

I would like to understand the rationale that set up this move. Yes, 20/20 hindsight shows this move to be odd, however, it never seemed to make sense.It seems like when Burdi went high in the rule 5 draft, the FO panicked to make a move to offset the loss.Pulling at straws here.Like I have said in the past, this FO, is making great strides and this one seems out of step with everything else they have done.  

 

Maybe.But that was a horrible bullpen.And he is a novelty type of pitcher.And novelty (unlike stuff) tends to wear out.

Some people might argue that Busenitz was or that Belisle was or that Kintzler was...

 

Kinda tough to point at the one-eyed person among the blind and saying that he should be around...

Novelty type of pitcher? Just because he throws sidearm?  

 

So he's kind of like Neshek was/is a novelty type pitcher? Because he hasn't had any type of success in professional baseball at all.

    • woolywoolhouse likes this

 

. What happens if you give a guy like the 500 at bats?

 

 

IMO he gets exposed for the player he is.

 

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

Agreed. What's even weirder is that we managed to sign/acquire 7 MLB players this offseason, and didn't need Kinley's 40-man roster spot (or Vargas's) to add any of them. Obviously we were helped by the slow market, but I don't think we ever expected to return Kinley before mid-March either. And if we didn't like Burdi, it seems like Bard or Chargois would have been realistic possibilities to keep too, even without the benefit of the 60-day DL.

 

Not a huge deal, obviously marginal gains/losses compared to our main offseason moves, but worth noting among obsessive baseball fans. :)

 

Of course, Kinley could still make the team, if we carry 12 pitchers and Hughes is our 5th SP / long reliever.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that?

You are correct. Duffey actually has 2 option years remaining -- he only spent 7 days on optional assignment in 2015, so he didn't use one there. His only option year used so far was in 2016.

    • ThejacKmp likes this

 

Keep Vargas.  his hitting is timely. Morrison can play OF at least as well as Grossman.

 

In the last 3 years.(avg/obp)

None on - .267/.325

Runners on - .214/.289

scoring position - .207/.267

bases loaded - .235/.211

leading off - .244/.308

scoring position 2 outs -.147/.227

 

Is that clutch?

 

Also last year they thought so much of him as a right handed hitter, they gave him 65 at bats and hit .185, he was good the two years prior.

    • Dozier's Glorious Hair likes this

 

Morrison can play OF at least as well as Grossman.

No. He. Can't.

    • Oxtung, SwainZag and dbminn like this

Vargas is definitely the odd man out. He still has a chance to be a good DH but I don't think it will be with the Twins. I could see him DH for the White Sox (or maybe the Rays). Otherwise, he should go overseas and get some PA.

 

If Sano isn't with the team to start the season, IMO bench will be: Garver, Grossman, Granite and Adrianza. Granite to AAA when Sano is available. A surprise might be LaMarre instead of Granite to start the season. Let Granite get his ups in AAA to start the year and let the older guy sit on the bench.

 

I predict Hughes starts the season on the DL. He's released in mid-April if his stuff doesn't come back. He's not Falvine's guy. Duffey or Mejia in long relief to start the season. 

 

Twins will try and keep Kinley. Easy velo with a nice slider. I think his mechanics are pretty reasonable (based on a whole two innings of TV). Either he clears waivers and they make a trade with Miami or Pressly could be out.This is my "hot take" impact. IMO, Pressly is a little like Vargas - a lot of talent but maybe no room.

 

"I don't understand why people keep referring to him as a "fourth outfielder". That means if someone goes down he is next man up out there."

Because that's what they're used him as since he's been here.

 

That's the same rationale as, "it's this way because this is the way we have done it the last two years"

 

Because we used him as a 4th outfielder doesn't mean it has to continue for a third year.Seriously, it seems like some people feel like Grossman needs to be here.He does not.He is a perfect example of someone who can be easily replaced by a better player at virtually the same cost.

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

The Sanchez guarantee was indeed strange, even if it was on the margins of roster and payroll. He had minor league deal, nonroster invite written all over him. And he signed right at the same time as we acquired Odorizzi, and we knew about the slow market for Lynn/Cobb, so it's not like we were that desperate at the time.
    • Twins33, h2oface and Vanimal46 like this

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc..... Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.


They went to arbitration with Gibson so they could learn the process.

 

They went to arbitration with Gibson so they could learn the process.

 

Because they don't know the process?.... in all their previous experiences and positions that got them the jobs they now have? Right. That's what was said, but I don't buy that spin at all. Hopefully, they already were well aware of the process.

Photo
Brock Beauchamp
Mar 12 2018 07:18 PM

 

Because they don't know the process?.... in all their previous experiences and positions that got them the jobs they now have? Right. That's what was said, but I don't buy that spin at all. Hopefully, they already were well aware of the process.

They wanted the new management team to experience the process. Falvey and Levine, who probably have plenty of experience in the process already, aren't the people who go into the arbitration hearing and argue how much Gibson is worth (actually, I don't believe anyone from the team does at all, it's an MLB thing and the experience gained was probably through working with MLB).

 

You can choose not to believe that but when Gibson himself doesn't seem bothered by how it went down, getting upset about it seems a little ridiculous.

    • BigSkyTwinsFan, Twins33, AWOLNATION_11 and 1 other like this

 

Disagree. 4.50 ERA in his rookie campaign with Swing and miss material. 10.5% S/M rate. that was higher than Berrios' 9.4%. Think he has a good chance to be a typical number 3 in the rotation in the future years..

Not ever has he averaged 6 innings a game. That is not a number 3.Swinging strike number is average. WHIP is way above average. They see it and don't swing at it and get a walk or the eventually see one and get a hit. As he will turn 25 there would be a lot of development in a short period of time,

 

They wanted the new management team to experience the process. Falvey and Levine, who probably have plenty of experience in the process already, aren't the people who go into the arbitration hearing and argue how much Gibson is worth (actually, I don't believe anyone from the team does at all, it's an MLB thing and the experience gained was probably through working with MLB).

 

You can choose not to believe that but when Gibson himself doesn't seem bothered by how it went down, getting upset about it seems a little ridiculous.

 

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

 

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.


But you don't mind assigning motives to the Twins FO for why they chose to take Gibson to arbitration?

Not ever has he averaged 6 innings a game. That is not a number 3. Swinging strike number is average. WHIP is way above average. They see it and don't swing at it and get a walk or the eventually see one and get a hit. As he will turn 25 there would be a lot of development in a short period of time,


He averaged exactly 6 IP per start in 2016. Unless my math isn't what it used to be.
22 starts, 132 IP.

 

He averaged exactly 6 IP per start in 2016. Unless my math isn't what it used to be.
22 starts, 132 IP.

One year of exactly 6My bad, Mejia has been pitching for how long?

Photo
Brock Beauchamp
Mar 13 2018 07:38 AM

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.

What bothers me is when people speculate wildly without a speck of evidence to support their opinion. Doubly so when that speculation casts people in a negative light for no reason.
    • Carole Keller, BigSkyTwinsFan, SwainZag and 1 other like this

 

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

They as likely upped whatever they were offering Gibson just to get to the arbitration number, just as Gibson's agent lowered the asking price for arbitration.If Gibson was a free agent he might not see that kind of money.

    • h2oface likes this

One year of exactly 6 My bad, Mejia has been pitching for how long?


Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

Similar Articles


by Cody Christie , 19 Jun 2018
Photo


by Andrew Thares , 19 Jun 2018
Photo


by Cody Christie , 17 Jun 2018
Photo


by Tom Froemming , 17 Jun 2018
Photo


by Tom Froemming , 16 Jun 2018
Photo