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Re-opening the WAR debate

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Shots fired from Bill James: https://www.billjame...dge_and_altuve/
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Article: Twins With Options On The Trade Front

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Recent reports have suggested that the Twins may be interested in using the trade market to handle some roster moves this winter. Mike Be...
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Article: Five Things Twins Fan Can Be Thankful For

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As the holiday season begins, let’s take a minute to appreciate some of the things that have gone well in Twins Territory over the last y...
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Article: What's Next For Kohl Stewart?

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 03:27 PM
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Article: Part 6: Seth's Updated Top 50 Twins Prospect...

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 10:31 PM
This week, the Twins made some decisions on several minor leaguers. Some were added to the 40-man roster, and others were left unprotecte...
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Official Twins Daily July Trade Deadline Day Thread

Happy July 31st Trade Deadline Day!!

This article will be updated throughout Monday with any rumors associated with the Minnesota Twins. Be sure to check back frequently for discussion of rumors. Obviously any Twins transactions will get a new article for deeper discussion on it.

The Twins gave us fans a great run of some really exciting baseball for the season's first 100 games. It's clear that they need to be sellers at this time, and they have several players that teams should be interested in. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's phones (and they may have multiple phones each) will be busy. Hopefully they remember to bring their chargers to work!

More important for fans to remember, the Twins have a core of players on their roster, and some younger players who should get opportunities the rest of the way. This team should be fun to watch the rest of this season as we look toward a 2018 in which we will have hope. Hope is a good thing!
Image courtesy of Sergio Estrada, USA Today
Update 2:00 p.m. - Jerry Crasnick says the Twins may be nearing a trade of Brandon Kintzler... well, yeah, there's under one hour to go until the deadline!



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Update 11:11 a.m. - In response to Feinsand, Mike Berardino tweeted that the Twins expect a Kintzler deal to go "down to the wire."

Darren Wolfson tweeted that the Nationals, Rays and Rockies have shown a lot of interest in Kintzler.
Wolfson added the idea that Kintzler could be brought back in the offseason, even if he is traded.



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Update 10:30 a.m. - Mark Feinsand from MLB.com notes that as Justin Wilson and Addison Reed have come off the board, the Twins are getting more interest in Kintzler...



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Update (9:30 a.m.) - It's been remarkably quiet on the Twins Trade rumor front so far this morning. Addison Reed was just traded from the Mets to the Red Sox.



Does this remove the Red Sox as a potential landing spot for Brandon Kintzler? There are likely still many other teams involved in discussions as well, but having the Red Sox involved can't hurt.



The Red Sox gave up three prospects for him, but none higher than their 18th ranked prospect. So, this, like the Neshek deal last week, sets an expectation that the Twins might be able to get quantity, but they probably won't get high-ranking prospects for Kintzler.

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We all woke up on Sunday morning and soon learned that the Twins and Yankees had agreed to a trade that sent LHP Jaime Garcia to New York in exchange for RHP Zack Littell and LHP Dietrich Enns.

The Twins went on to lose to the Oakland A's for the second straight game in walk-off fashion. While the front office had essentially acknowledged a day earlier that they were now in sell mode, the two losses in the Bay Area should have made it official.

We tried to keep up with Twins rumors the rest of Sunday. There were some rumors on the likely trade candidates, and we know that many times there is a trade of an unlikely player. Who will that player be for the Twins tomorrow, if there is one?

I think we can all agree that Brandon Kintzler is the player most likely to be traded tomorrow. Because he can fill so many roles for a team, from seventh inning reliever to closer (if needed), any playoff contender could find a role for him. Also, he is an impending free agent.



It's hard to disagree with Nick's tweet from Sunday night. Because he can be a free agent, it seems wise for the Twins to get whatever they can for him as opposed to getting nothing for him at the end of the season. I can't imagine the Twins would make him a qualifying offer at approximately $18 million for 2018.

Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray have yet to be traded. Maybe they won't be. Either way, it would seem that Ervin Santana is more of a fall-back plan for those teams like the Dodgers or Astros.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of rumors swirling around Brian Dozier. A home run in his first at-bat on Sunday was followed by five strikeouts, which probably isn't what a potential trade suitor would want to see. Then again, Dozier's got five years worth of data points that teams are fully aware of.

Matt Belisle is currently the Twins most reliable reliever. He also is a free agent at the end of the season. He is another guy that teams will consider as a sixth or seventh inning guy since they know that he won't buckle under the pressure of big-game situations. The return would certainly be small, but since he's a free agent, getting anything back would be good.

And again, there will be plenty of rumors throughout the day, and this article will be updated as we hear them. Updates will happen at the top of the body of the article, so be sure to check back often and discuss.


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235 Comments

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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 31 2017 05:07 AM

for all the angst surrounding Belisle's name, it's a bit surprising to think he could be dealt to another team. Not sure I'd expect a ton for Belisle or Kintsler, but if we get a low A lotto type, I'm fine with that.

    • Jerr, Oxtung, Dman and 3 others like this

 

for all the angst surrounding Belisle's name, it's a bit surprising to think he could be dealt to another team. Not sure I'd expect a ton for Belisle or Kintsler, but if we get a low A lotto type, I'm fine with that.

Agree, I just don't want to see them walk away for nothing in return.

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HitInAPinch
Jul 31 2017 07:15 AM

Breslow was officially released yesterday.

I'd set the over/under on number of trades today at 1.5

 

Kintzler will get traded for best offer.

 

I think Santana is next likely to get traded. I think the Yankees will get Gray, but I don't think the Dodgers will give up Buehler or Verdugo for Darvish and Texas will ultimately hold onto him.There could be a potential fit there since the Dodgers have such a deep farm system and I could see a deal being made that doesn't include their top 5 prospects.Mariners have talked to Twins about Santana too, but their farm system doesn't match up well with what the FO seems to want back.  Astros are in it too. Maybe even Royals.  It ultimately depends on if a team will get desperate and meet the FO's minimum return.  If not, the smart move is to hang onto him. 

 

Escobar, Belisle, Gimenez could all be moved too.  Seems most likely that Dozier is moved in the offseason.  Maybe even another trade in the style of JRM for Moya. (Park to someone?)

 

I think I'd take the over.  Kintzler and then either a Santana trade or a more minor trade. 

 

 

    • markos and SF Twins Fan like this

Kintzler will almost certainly be traded today. 

I could see Belisle getting traded in August. 

Ervin I'll put at 15% chance he's traded today. 

 

Dozier 0.5%. I just don't see any team that needs a 2B. 

    • Jerr, Mike Sixel and jun like this
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nicksaviking
Jul 31 2017 07:44 AM

I bet Santana gets moved but for a return most folks here are underwhelmed by. The front office surely sees his peripheral stats indicate he's much closer to being a liability than he is a front of the rotation guy. If he pitches to his stats the 2nd half, this is likely the last chance to deal him.

    • diehardtwinsfan, markos, Rhino and Compass and 3 others like this

Quite possible. Something tells me though we'll be surprised in some way (either more trades than we thought or less, although I have a sneaking suspicion that it will be less for some reason).

I am a little surprised there hasn't been more trade activity.  Makes me nervous about the returns especially for relievers.  There seems to be a fair number of quality relievers out there so likely a buyers market.

 

Dozier has done nothing to make himself appealing at the deadline.  I thought last year he had turned a corner but I think this is pretty much who he is.  I don't see a big a return in the future either.  It is nice to have his power at 2nd but he seems pretty replaceable.

 

I agree that Belisle could get traded but for very little and that would be the appeal.  When used properly he is pretty solid so I think teams would be interested for a far away lottery pick.

 

It would be nice if some team would pony up for Escobar to remove the log jam of middle infielders but it seems unlikely as he is considered a utility player and I think the Twins value him higher than the market does.

 

It doesn't appear that any team wants to pay big in prospects for the starters that are available so that makes me doubt Sanana gets moved as he is pretty valuable to the Twins for next year and could be dangled again if needed.

 

Kintzler seems like the most likely to go but we will have to wait and see.

 

Kintzler will almost certainly be traded today. 

I could see Belisle getting traded in August. 

Ervin I'll put at 15% chance he's traded today. 

 

Dozier 0.5%. I just don't see any team that needs a 2B. 

Unless Arizona suddenly decides to be after a 2B.  Dozier's bat would play well there in my view.

 

I have no idea how likely that really is though.

I predict:

 

Kintzler dealt

Belisle dealt

Gimenez released in August waivers at some point, about 2-3 weeks from now

 

    • markos, Dman and SF Twins Fan like this

 

I predict:

 

Kintzler dealt

Belisle dealt

Gimenez released in August waivers at some point, about 2-3 weeks from now

I would change that to Gimenez moved to the bullpen, as it looks like they will need him there often.

    • nicksaviking and PDX Twin like this

 

I predict:

 

Kintzler dealt

Belisle dealt

Gimenez released in August waivers at some point, about 2-3 weeks from now

 

Too many relievers available for Belisle to go today. Going to be an August move.

    • James, Oxtung, Vanimal46 and 1 other like this

 

Too many relievers available for Belisle to go today. Going to be an August move.

 

good point. After the bad stretch, he's actually be quite good.

    • nytwinsfan likes this

From MLBTR's top 25 deadline day trade candidates, #4 (Justin Wilson) already went to the Cubs, and #3 (Addison Reed) is "moving closer" to the Red Sox.

 

Kintzler is the next reliever on the list, at #5.  Joe Smith is right behind him at #6, though, and I could see him being more appealing to some with his 2017 K rate.

 

I'm starting to suspect we might be underwhelmed by the Kintzler return, even compared to other relievers. Enough that the team may not bother to deal him at all...

    • diehardtwinsfan and markos like this
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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 31 2017 08:42 AM

MLBTR is saying the Yankees are front runners for Gray right now. Guess their rotation is in pretty bad shape if they've acquired Garcia and still want more pitching.

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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 31 2017 08:43 AM

 

From MLBTR's top 25 deadline day trade candidates, #4 (Justin Wilson) already went to the Cubs, and #3 (Addison Reed) is "moving closer" to the Red Sox.

 

Kintzler is the next reliever on the list, at #5.  Joe Smith is right behind him at #6, though, and I could see him being more appealing to some with his 2017 K rate.

 

I'm starting to suspect we might be underwhelmed by the Kintzler return, even compared to other relievers. Enough that the team may not bother to deal him at all...

 

I wouldn't expect much more than a high upside/high risk low A lotto type. Honestly, I'm also fine with that.

    • nicksaviking, 70charger, Vanimal46 and 1 other like this

 

MLBTR is saying the Yankees are front runners for Gray right now. Guess their rotation is in pretty bad shape if they've acquired Garcia and still want more pitching.

 

Gray is cheap, they want under the cap, and he has more than 1 year of control left. I think it is about that, more than fixing just this year.

    • diehardtwinsfan likes this

 

I wouldn't expect much more than a high upside/high risk low A lotto type. Honestly, I'm also fine with that.

I'm wondering if the return might not be closer to Pat Light territory, though.  Kintzler has had a nice season for us but I'm not sure he fits anyone's profile for bullpen reinforcement.

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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 31 2017 08:49 AM

 

I'm wondering if the return might not be closer to Pat Light territory, though.  Kintzler has had a nice season for us but I'm not sure he fits anyone's profile for bullpen reinforcement.

 

well, given that the Indians seem more interested in Zach Britton and his price tag/history now that Reed is gone, you might be right.

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nicksaviking
Jul 31 2017 08:52 AM

 

I wouldn't expect much more than a high upside/high risk low A lotto type. Honestly, I'm also fine with that.

 

I agree, partly because most teams are willing to give up those types of players which are so far away, and partly because the front office probably is already going to have their hands full with 40-man decisions next year.

 

I'm wondering if the return might not be closer to Pat Light territory, though.  Kintzler has had a nice season for us but I'm not sure he fits anyone's profile for bullpen reinforcement.

 

Hmm, that's a tough spot. The Twins could try to re-sign Kintzler in the off-season either way. But if the return is essentially a non-prospect, not sure if it's worth the hassle. 

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Willihammer
Jul 31 2017 08:54 AM

 

MLBTR is saying the Yankees are front runners for Gray right now. Guess their rotation is in pretty bad shape if they've acquired Garcia and still want more pitching.

I think Garcia plugs in as their #5 so they're okay but no room for an injury. If they got Gray they could bump Montgomery to the pen in Phil Hughes type fashion. I think that's the thinking.

 

From MLBTR's top 25 deadline day trade candidates, #4 (Justin Wilson) already went to the Cubs, and #3 (Addison Reed) is "moving closer" to the Red Sox.

 

Kintzler is the next reliever on the list, at #5.  Joe Smith is right behind him at #6, though, and I could see him being more appealing to some with his 2017 K rate.

 

I'm starting to suspect we might be underwhelmed by the Kintzler return, even compared to other relievers. Enough that the team may not bother to deal him at all...

Underwhelming or not, anything is better than losing him for nothing at the end of the year. I will be happy with a return of anyone under the age of 24 that arguably slots into the top-30 of the Twins system.

    • Mike Sixel, Twins33, SF Twins Fan and 1 other like this

What I expect to see:
- Kintzler
- One other trade today
Over/under of 2 trades today.

 

What I would like to see:
- Kintzler
- Santana
- Grossman -> Granite stays up when Buxton is called back up
- Gimenez -> Garver called up as C/DH

    • Mike Sixel, dbminn, SF Twins Fan and 1 other like this
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Rhino and Compass
Jul 31 2017 09:15 AM

I think the time to trade Santana is now. His peripherals indicate that he is going to nose dive sooner rather than later, and at 35, even if his peripherals were good, well, the time would be coming soon anyway. If good GMs have a chance to look into him this offseason, without the deadline panic, I'm not sure anyone would take him. Seems strange to say, given his raw numbers, and the fact that he was a gosh darned all-star this year.

I think Kintzler is going to go right at the deadline as the bidding war starts up after Reed is gone, and the O's decide on Britton


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