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Fun with Numbers 2018 Edition

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Moving Dozier Needs to Include Creativity

Happy New Years!

It may be the first you've heard of it, but it sounds like the Twins and Dodgers have been having trade discussions that revolve around All-Star 2B Brian Dozier.

Oh, you have heard it?

Of course you have. It's been an ongoing national talker and there's been no shortage of articles to read on the topic right here on this site.
Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
While no one knows how close we are to getting (or not getting) to a resolution in these trade talks, you can put me squarely in the camp that believes the Twins shouldn't move Dozier unless they're blown away.

Sorry guys, trading Dozier for Jose De Leon in a 1-for-1 swap isn't blowing the Twins away. And trading Dozier for De Leon and Brock Stewart also isn't enough, in my opinion, to pull the trigger.

So what's going to give?

Did you hear? The 9th edition of the Twins Prospect Handbook is coming out on Wednesday. If you plug the code FWD15 in at checkout, you'll get 15% off. Want to buy a few? Get 20% off five or more books with the code SPACE20.
Get Another Prospect or Two

The Dodgers reportedly are holding steadfast in that they won't budge from not including other highly-regarded prospects like Yadier Alvarez or Cody Bellinger. But they've shown a "willingness" to include De Leon. A package that includes De Leon and Stewart is a good start. So who else could they look to include?

Willie Calhoun - Calhoun is fashioned as a power-hitting left-handed-hitting second baseman. That might cause you to raise a red flag because that's ultimately Jorge Polanco's home. No problem, though, because Calhoun isn't going to stick at second base. His future is likely in left field, where he'd be limited by his lack of speed and arm, only because a 5' 6" first baseman isn't realistic. I wouldn't love Calhoun to be included, but his bat is an asset and assets are what the Twins need to close the deal.

Jordan Sheffield - Getting another arm would be wise and Sheffield has a pretty powerful one (which includes a remade UCL). The Twins liked Sheffield - but didn't love him - coming out of Vanderbilt and there are questions about whether he profiles as a starter or not. But guys that can hit 98 don't just fall off trees and getting him as a third piece wouldn't be a terrible thing.

Trevor Oaks - Oaks profiles as a groundball pitcher who could be a back end starter/middle relief option. There's nothing sexy about him but adding a (good) Nick Blackburn-type would be an acceptable third piece.

Lottery Tickets - The Dodgers have been very active in international free agency the past few years and maybe the Twins could pry away either Ronny Brito, SS or Starling Heredia, OF. Just 17 and neither having made their US debut yet, both prospects have high ceilings but a long way to go. Brito is a defensive wizard who has questions about his bat. Heredia is a big-bodied power hitter who will end up in a corner.

It might go without saying, though, that if the Dodgers were willing to include any of these guys and the Twins were willing to seal the deal with the inclusion of any of these guy that the deal would already be done.

So now let's get more creative.

International Spending Money - The new CBA revamps how and what teams can spend. Hard caps. Pools are much more even.

For example, the Twins, despite having the #1 overall pick in the draft, get no advantage in the international free agent (IFA) market for being the worst team. Because they receive revenue sharing, they will receive a competitive balance pick and extra IFA money. Every team will have a pool of at least a minimum of $4.75 million. The Twins, who get an extra pick after the first round, will have a pool of $5.25 million. There are eight teams who have pools of $5.75 million. The Dodgers fit in the group that has $4.75 million to spend.

So where am I going with this?

The Dodgers are still stuck with the penalties of going over their spending limit in 2015. They can't sign any player for more than $300,000. Maybe they could send some money to the Twins? The Twins could add up to $3,937,500 to their pool. The Dodgers love to spend money, so maybe they'll just spend it all on $300,000 guys... or maybe they could cough up $1.75 million to the Twins, who would then have $7 million and the ability to throw their weight around in that market as the team with the most money. Rules prohibit pool money from being traded until the market opens on July 2, so it would have to called "future considerations."

Take On Bad Money - The Dodgers will always flirt with the luxury tax threshold. With only 13 players under contract for 2017, they are already at $200 million in commitments. They have eight arbitration-eligible players who are projected to get around $16 million. If the four players who fill out the roster all make the minimum, they're looking at a payroll that is nearly $220 million.

The way the CBA reads, the Dodgers would face a 50% penalty on the overage (the limit is $195 million for the upcoming season) which would cost them $12.5 million. In addition to that, they'd be forced to pay an additional 12% on any dollar over $215 million, which is another $600,000. And that's assuming the Dodgers payroll is only $220 million. It will likely be greater. At $240 million? More penalties. It could almost get to the point where the Dodgers are forced to pay $2 for every $1 they spend over $195 million.
So a team, like the Twins, could take on $10 million dollars and save the Dodgers $20 million. You know what could encourage a team to take on money? More prospects.

How could the Twins take on money, you ask?

Brandon McCarthy - McCarthy has two years at $10 million each left on his contract plus a team option. McCarthy has only made 13 starts in the last two seasons due to having Tommy John surgery. He's only 33 and not too far removed from being a pretty good pitcher.

Erisbel Arruebarrena - The Cuban shortstop is a defensive wizard but has been suspended for much of the last two seasons. He's owed $9 million over the next two years. I'm not interested in adding the player - mostly cause I don't know what his issues are - but I'd take on his money to add another prospect (like Sheffield). The Dodgers, in turn, would save up to nearly $18 million of dead-weight.

Yaisel Sierra - Another Cuban, the right-handed pitcher has been a huge disappointment after signing a six-year, $30 million contract in February. He only lasted on the 40-man until the beginning of July and struggled at both high-A and AA. He's still on the hook for five years and $23 million. But he could still prove to be a serviceable arm. While that money is an albatross for the Dodgers - and costing them nearly $50 million - it could be worth taking on for the Twins... if the Dodgers are willing to throw more in.

Of course, this is all based on the assumption that the Dodgers care about wasting money (and they might not).

Brian Dozier (who's owed $6 million and $9 million for the next two years) for Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart, the contracts of McCarthy or Sierra and Arruebarrena (who are owed $6.5 million and $8.5 million the next two years), Calhoun and/or Sheffield and some IFA money in July would be a creative way to get a deal done.

Is it enough? Is it fair?

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While I think they could afford to do so and would love it if they would do it, I just don't see the Twins taking on $10 million in salary for getting an extra prospect.  

Still want prospects, But Dodger bosses do not like trading propects.This may take until just before spring training to clarify the positions.2B(right handed hitter) is still the Dodgers biggest need and options here for them are not good.

Could they also find a way to get a third team involved to add another prospect. 


What if they were able to trade a veteran (not a core type) for a package of 2-3 B-/C+ prospects and spin them to the Twins (obviously knowing the specifics of such a deal).


Those sanctions on the Dodgers (not being able to spend more than $300K on any signing) is a HUGE thing. Makes me very glad that the Twins were wise enough not to do that. I like the idea of including some IFA dollars. 

    • DJSim22, Riverbrian, Don't Feed the Greed Guy and 1 other like this


Is it enough? Is it fair?



I have often wondered what the dollar value of a prospect is. 


If Boston wanted to buy Tyler Jay from the Twins for example. How big a check should the Red Sox write. 


I love creativity and I hope the discussions are considering all of this and more. 


I also wouldn't mind some 3 or 4 team deal creativity either. 



    • Don't Feed the Greed Guy likes this
Cory Engelhardt
Jan 01 2017 10:51 AM
De Leon and Stewart and Will Smith and Sierra sound good to me. Let's make it happe
Sure would be nice to find a 3rd team willing to take Erv Santana to get a better haul of prospects.
    • Cory Engelhardt, jokin, TheLeviathan and 1 other like this

Great post Jeremy


I too  Would be down with De Leon , Brock Stewart and Willie Calhoun


but De leon and De Jong or De Leon and Stewart isn't enough.


And i believe the only way we might get De Leon and Walker Buehler + one other is by including Mike Tonkin or Alex Pressly whoever strikes their fancy

If we still had Duensing, a deal would have been struck a month ago.
    • DJSim22, jokin, TheLeviathan and 4 others like this
Jan 01 2017 11:20 AM

What happened to De Leon + Alvarez and the hangup was the Twins wanted a 3rd player?

Have zero interest in Calhoun. His bat is pretty legit, but his only realistic position is DH. Just not that valuable. Much rather have Verdugo or Sheffield or Lux or even just Stewart plus a lottery ticket type (e.g., Brito, Heredia).

    • jokin and Oxtung like this
Cory Engelhardt
Jan 01 2017 11:23 AM

Have zero interest in Calhoun. His bat is pretty legit, but his only realistic position is DH. Just not that valuable. Much rather have Verdugo or Sheffield or Lux or even just Stewart plus a lottery ticket type (e.g., Brito, Heredia).

But he is an asset that they could use or trade too

I'm sorry but, IMO, De Leon and Stewart for Dozier is fair.

    • birdwatcher, Thrylos, Cory Engelhardt and 4 others like this

I too have wondered how we could help the Dodgers provide us with a more appealing package. I've thought that taking on some salary might be a good way to get there, but I also wonder at times whether LA even cares about money. Maybe they print it themselves and the luxury tax means nothing to them.


If money does have some impact then taking on Kazmir's contract might make a difference in what is available to us.

Cory Engelhardt
Jan 01 2017 11:34 AM

I'm sorry but, IMO, De Leon and Stewart for Dozier is fair.

Agree 100%
    • TheLeviathan and jimmer like this

There are many more creative ways to make a Dozier trade happen.


1) Did Terry Ryan take the Scotch and Bourbon supply with him when he left? De Leon + a case will do.


2) Without Bill Smith around who will keep the ice bucket full on the drinking cart? This is an essential role that needs to be filled for any GM. De Leon + the Dodgers drinking cart guy. This is one of the toughest jobs in any MLB organization and the Twins need to make sure they have a veteran for the job. 


3) Trading Rule 4 draft spots or Rule 5 draft spots is out of the question, but what about Rules 1-3 draft spots? (Rule 1 = The Baseball Owner's Yearly Caviar Supply Draft, Rule 2 = MLB Jet Timeshare Draft, Rule 3 = Bermuda Tax Shelter/Winter Vacation Timeshare Draft). 


4) De Leon + unlimited access to the Dodgers team guest mansion in LA. Would be nice for the Minnesota winters (assuming the new leadership is even in MN this winter, I guess).


5) De Leon + new velvet smoking jackets for the C-level and higher Twins staff. Hugh Hefner has a good supply of such jackets. Does Hefner still live next door to the old Dodgers owner? Hook up the Twins, yo.


See? When dealing with men of extreme privilege there are dozens of great options of tradeable assets. All they have to do is think outside the box. 

    • Vanimal46 likes this


What happened to De Leon + Alvarez and the hangup was the Twins wanted a 3rd player?

That is still the case, some of the other people around here just like to completely ignore this news that I brought them :)

    • darin617, dgwills, HitInAPinch and 2 others like this


But he is an asset that they could use or trade too

Yeah, but that's what Dozier is too, except in the meantime he provides value on the field. I'm not interested in trading Dozier for assets we can then just trade again. Calhoun is an asset, just not a very good one because his positional destination is so limited. 

    • Riverbrian likes this


What happened to De Leon + Alvarez and the hangup was the Twins wanted a 3rd player?

If De Leon and Alvarez were on the table and we don't do the trade because of haggling over other pieces, it's a major fail by our new FO.

    • Thrylos, Kevin, Cory Engelhardt and 4 others like this
Cory Engelhardt
Jan 01 2017 12:01 PM

Yeah, but that's what Dozier is too, except in the meantime he provides value on the field. I'm not interested in trading Dozier for assets we can then just trade again. Calhoun is an asset, just not a very good one because his positional destination is so limited.

But, he is a top 100 prospect. None of us have seen him play, and all we can go by is the scouting report and stat line. He hit a LOT of homeruns in a hitter friendly league with an ops that wasn't great (with the number of homeruns involved) and has below average ranks on defense. Still, if he is part of the trade, who is to say that he couldn't become a good player with the twins, and/or used to get a different player at a different time?
There are over 2000 comments that parse the relative merits of Dozier for Deleon + Alvarez (or not). Maybe this thread can stay a bit more creative? I am pretty sure I know how everybody feels about THAT deal at this point.
    • Doomtints likes this
Jan 01 2017 12:02 PM

Including a Nick Blackburn-like prospect = creativity.  




some of the other people around here just like to completely ignore this rumor that I brought them



I haven't followed all this DaveW stuff. Is he full of it or just have bad info? Perhaps legit info that the brass isn't acting on? I've been in forums with this type of junk, I guess time will tell. I tend to be extremely sceptical of some guy on the internet with a source.
Anyway, I doubt a Dozier deal gets done this offseason.
Buddy Holly
Jan 01 2017 12:52 PM

How do you replace Dozier's bat? Polanco has better average, less power he looks stiff in the field. DeLeon is a 24th round 25 year old #3 projection. He could be a Jim Perry or Phil Humber. I don't like plugging a hole with hope and opening up a bigger hole in the infield. Who backs up Sano, a defensive nightmare and a hamstring waiting to happen if Polonco is at 2nd. I keep Dozier, wait a year and see how the arms at AA progress. If you trade Dozier you need a back up plan for the infield. Knoblauch to Dozier was 15 years of pain. Being creative sometime is taking your time. 

    • jokin and Bill Brown69 like this

A few questions/thoughts:


1. Any interest in a pitcher like Chase De Jong as a 3rd or 4th piece? Not nearly enough upside?


2. What about MLB-ready OF's Toles or Thompson.


3. Any hot names on the international market this summer that will take a decent amount of coin to reel in?

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