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Cord cutters dilema

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 08:17 PM
With the season fast approaching, what is the best way to watch Twins Baseball as a cord cutter? For the past several years, I've been us...
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Player Opt-outs

Other Baseball Yesterday, 01:56 PM
While we think about if a season happens or not.I started thinking about the opt out clauses by players, and what they will do.I tried to...
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Spring Training 2021

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 12:02 PM
No matter what kind of patch work 2020 season MLB comes up with, if anything at this point, it will amount to no more than a glorified pr...
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Watch the Live Play-by-Play of the Virtual Twins Playoffs

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 09:19 AM
With the real Twins around the corner, I have elected to sim to the playoffs to try and tease how the real club will do this fall, and as...
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Charley Walters: Twins-Saints partnership talks quietly o...

Twins Minor League Talk 13 Jul 2020
Very interesting article in Pioneer Press from Charlie Walters. https://www.twinciti...uietly-ongoing/ There’s been a few suggestions in...
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Mitch Garver Can Prove a Lot of People Wrong

This week, national media showed Mitch Garver some love. Despite some projections indicating that the Twins catcher is bound to disappoint us this year, Mike Petriello, from MLB.com, wrote this fine piece going the other way. But even in such a positive article, there were still some question marks about what he can really bring to the table in 2020. Are they right to be suspicious?
Image courtesy of Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Petriello put together very reasonable sources of doubt about Garver, three of which caught my attention: his lack of track record to earn him confidence, the fact that his 2019 numbers were well above what had come before, and his struggles against non-fastballs. So I raised some counterarguments for those points, to try to inject some optimism in favor of The Sauce.

Does he really have no track record?
If you consider Garver’s time as a major leaguer alone, that’s a fair point. Because he chose to attend college, his MLB debut came only at age 26. But that doesn’t mean that what he did the previous eight years is not relevant.

A while back, I looked back at some Twins collegiate careers. In four years playing for the Lobos, Garver had outstanding numbers. He maintained a slash line of .351/.421/.527 (.948 OPS) in the four years he played for NCAA Division-I. He revolutionized the program, leading it to its best seasons in history and earned national recognition, being named a Johnny Bench Award finalist (a prize now known as the Buster Posey Award) two times. That’s why his breakout 2019 didn’t come as a surprise for his college coach Ray Birmingham, as he told Twins Daily last year.

As Petriello points out, he also earned some recognition for his minor league career, being named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year in 2017. In 110 games at Triple-A, good for 456 plate appearances, he slashed .298/.386/.520 (.906 OPS). Even though he was never considered a top prospect during his years in the minors, he did have a very solid time there. So 2019 shouldn’t have come as much as a surprise.

Did his breakout really start only in 2019?
In his article, Petriello chose to separate Garver’s MLB career into 2019 and 2017-18. But did his rise really only start in 2019? Actually, in spite of his overall 2018 stats showing a rather average performance, his breakout started in the middle of that season.

From June 1, 2018 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 156 games (592 PA), hitting .278/.359/.555 (.914 OPS), with a 139 wRC+ and .380 wOBA. Oh, and he also hit 36 bombas. Those are some much more reliable numbers to back up his breakout. During that time, he shared a lot of his PA’s with two or three other catchers, so it will be fun to see him finally being the Alpha of the Twins’ catching position.

How did other hitters perform at the same point of their careers?
Maybe the greatest mystery for Garver in 2020 is whether his struggles against non-fastballs are going to hurt him or not. So, I tried to investigate other hitters that had similar problems after three seasons in the majors and if that affected their following seasons or not.

Mitch Garver
Attached Image: GARVER.png
Bryce Harper
Attached Image: HARPER.png
Aaron Judge
Attached Image: JUDGE.png
J.T. Realmuto
Attached Image: REALMUTO.png
Two proven power hitters, who had very similar gaps between their fastball numbers and at least one other type of pitch. Such difficulties didn’t stop them from becoming two of the most feared bats in baseball. Both of them still display this difference nowadays, so I think it isn’t a big reason to worry. Considered by many the best catcher in baseball, Realmuto also showed an even larger lack of balance in his first two years in the majors, but he managed to even things out in his third year.

Given the amount of hard work Garver put into becoming a better catcher defensively, I don’t think it’s impossible that he becomes a better non-fastball hitter, like Realmuto did. But the bottom line is: he’s still going to see more fastballs than offspeed or breaking stuff. My guess is that he’s going to be fine either way.

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7 Comments

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the_brute_squad
Feb 23 2020 06:42 AM

I don't think Garver's risk of decreasing production is any worse than it is for anyone else on the roster. Assuming they don't use last years juiced baseball we can probably expect a 5-10% decrease in power numbers.

If MLB is using the same ball there's no reason to suspect any decrease as every batter in this lineup has protection behind them. There's no reason to think another HR record isn't in reach.

    • DocBauer likes this
Photo
Doctor Gast
Feb 23 2020 07:15 AM

I wasn`t too surprised by Garver`s rise last year, like you you stated it really started at the end of `18. Garver is mature & dedicated so I don`t expect a real decline this year. So I too was shock at Garver`s projections for this year. 

    • DocBauer likes this
A lot of the reasons listed to be skeptical are silly. You don’t hit 30+ HRs with 1.000 OPS, an impressive 87-42 k-BB, and 4 WAR by accident. It was offensive domination across the board. He didn’t stumble into a few HRs, like some lacy national pundits seem to think.

The questions I have in regards to Garner are related to his playing time. He only had 350 ABs. That makes his numbers even more impressive on the surface, but what happens when/if that increases?

His advanced age is noted above. That concerns me because he already had years of wear and tear on his body. When do the rigors or catching finally surface? I think this should be his last year behind the plate. Prior to signing Donaldson, I wanted him moved to first. If he’s as good as it appear offensively, tearing that down behind the plate right after it comes to fruition would be a tragedy.

Will Garver repeat last years numbers per AB/PA? Almost certainly not. Those were borderline Barry Bonds on roids type numbers. Still, he’s the premier player at his position as it stands.

Will be very interesting to watch Garver this year. Took him a long time time to arrive. Late arrival probably due to Terry Ryan’s regime not properly developing their minor league players. Wishing nothing but the best for Garver to stay successful and make some money during his career.

    • IAMNFan likes this

My biggest concern with Garver is the concussion bugaboo. The Twins have some history there. 

I would be happy with 25 HRs in 450 ABs this season. He is in his prime years so I can still see him being an .850 OPS guy. I'm happy with a .780 OPS from C position, which I am confident Garver can hit that.
    • Danchat likes this

 

My biggest concern with Garver is the concussion bugaboo. The Twins have some history there. 

Catchers have this concern.Seems worse than ever.