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Article: HAYES: Twins to Hire Wes Johnson as Pitching Coach

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Baseball America's Top Ten Twins Prospects

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Givens for Twins 2019 Bullpen?

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  So, I just threw this question out on Twitter to get more thoughts, but thought this would be an interesting discussion here....
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Article: Rundown: Mauer Being a Pain, Prospect Lists, Phi...

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For as many words as there have been written and said about Joe Mauer, his legacy won’t truly be determined by what anybody outside the g...
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MIN 4, BOS 1: For Grossman and Kepler, The Price Was Right

The Twins have played two of their best games of the season to open this series against the Boston Red Sox. Last night it was the Eduardo Escobar show, tonight the Twins were led by excellent performances by both Max Kepler and from the bullpen. The Twins have clinched the series win and will go for what could be their first sweep of a three or four game series all season Thursday afternoon.
Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Lance Lynn: 53 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 K, 5 BB, 51.5% strikes
Bullpen: 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 K, 0 BB
Lineup: 1-for-6 w/RISP, 5 LOB
Top three per WPA: Lynn .186, Kepler .167, Hildenberger .080

Attached Image: vs Red Sox 6-20-2018.PNG

Joe Mauer got the night off against a tough lefty in David Price, but Robbie Grossman stepped in nicely for him in the leadoff spot, belting a home run to get the Twins on the board after their first batter of the game. It was just Grossman’s third home run of the season and his first as a right-handed hitter.



The Twins base running woes continued tonight as Eddie Rosario was picked off first base with one out in the first. In case you were wondering, here is a little update on how many times the Twins have made outs on the bases this year.



After giving up a run in the second, the Twins regained the lead in the fourth when Max Kepler blasted a two-out, two-run home run of David Price. This continued Kepler’s improvement against left-handed pitchers this year as Kepler has now doubled his total of extra-base hits against them from a season ago, going from 6 to 12.



Kepler then backed that up with a tremendous diving catch, on a fly ball with a 4 percent catch probability, to rob J.D. Martinez of a hit in the eighth inning. The catch was originally ruled a hit but was quickly overturned after going to instant replay.



The Twins picked up an insurance run in the eighth when Brian Dozier lined a double off the left-field wall and Eddie Rosario scored from first with some excellent base running. Dozier finished the night going 2-for-4 with two doubles.

Lance Lynn was the definition of effectively wild in his start tonight. Lynn needed to work around five more walks but wound up surrendering just one unearned run over five innings. In each of the five innings the Red Sox had a runner in scoring position, but in each instance, they failed to get a hit once someone got there.

The only reason the Red Sox ended up scoring against Lynn was because of a botched exchange between Logan Morrison and Lynn after Morrison made a great diving play to nearly get the Twins out of the inning.

While Lynn may have had to work to keep the Red Sox off the board, that wasn’t the same story for the Twins bullpen which allowed just one base runner over four innings of work.

Taylor Rogers had perhaps his best outing of the season in the sixth, then Addison Reed came in for the seventh and had a get-back-on-track inning. Then it was more of the same from Trevor Hildenberger and Fernando Rodney who each worked a 1-2-3 inning in the eighth and ninth respectively.

Postgame with Paul Molitor



Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Attached Image: 6-20-2018 vs Red Sox.PNG
AL Central Standings
CLE 40-33
DET 36-39 (5 GB)
MIN 33-37 (5.5 GB)
CHW 24-49 (15 GB)
KC 22-52 (18.5 GB)

Next Three Games
Thu at BOS, 12:10 pm CT – Rick Porcello vs. Kyle Gibson
Fri vs. TEX, 7:10 pm CT – Mike Minor vs. Fernando Romero
Sat vs. TEX, 1:10 pm CT – Yovani Gallardo vs. Jake Odorizzi

Last Three Games
MIN 6, BOS 2: Bats Get to Boston Bullpen
CLE 4, MIN 1: Lots of Traffic, Just One Run
MIN 9, CLE 3: That’s Our Eddie

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42 Comments

Time to blow them out for the sweep today. Get out your brooms Twins fans!

    • tarheeltwinsfan likes this
Rogers was firing on all cylinders last night, his 2 seam and 4 seam fb's were 94 to 95.3
    • USAFChief and Minny505 like this

Going for the sweep. As expected.

    • USAFChief, blindeke, tarheeltwinsfan and 1 other like this

Great win! Let's complete the sweep this time - they almost did it in Cleveland last series, sure would be nice to see it happen today!

 

Dozier, one day after being called out by the Twins round table, delivers! Another "just-get-the-job-done" outing by Lynn, nice to see Reed have a clean inning as well.

 

Logan Morrison. Dud city. The guy seems to strike out or hit grounders to 1st base every time. Not much "sting" on the ball either. I'd rather see Gregor Petit in the batter's box, and I'm not joking.

 

Break out the brooms!

    • Dman and Tom Froemming like this

The Twins are doing everything to keep us interested for as long as possible!

 

There is still life, more than I saw a week ago today.

 

The Indians are good. Very good. In fact, they are better than the Twins.

 

However, the Indians also have more glaring warts than the Twins do. They are a couple good trades away from fixing those, but the Twins are a couple trades away from being a legitimate threat too, so long as everyone starts performing to expectations.

Nice win against a tough starter in Price!!!!!

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EddieMatthews
Jun 21 2018 06:49 AM

It's really nice to look at the starting pitching assignments for the Twins.  Each day the starter gives us hope, expectation of a good game.  Unlike past years where one or two starters were good, the rest gave us dread of impending loss.  Go Twins!

    • Dman, Circus Boy, DocBauer and 3 others like this
Lynn gave them a chance. It was ugly and not very fun to watch, but he worked out of many jams. I'm still not in the "worth the wait" camp, but he did beat a very good team with the help of four lock-down relief outings.
    • ken and jud6312 like this
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TheLeviathan
Jun 21 2018 07:13 AM

Rogers and Hildy getting back to what we expected would do a world of good for this team.

    • DocBauer likes this
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Tom Froemming
Jun 21 2018 07:20 AM

Is it time to platoon Max and sit him against righties? :)

 

Pretty frustrating to see the Twins make another out on the bases, but boy was the one Boston made 10x more awful. Betts at the plate, two down, runners at the corners and Brock Holt comes way too far off third on a ball in the dirt. Garver, Escobar and Adrianza combine on the run down to get him out to end the inning. Thank you!

    • tarheeltwinsfan, Vanimal46 and Minny505 like this
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jorgenswest
Jun 21 2018 07:28 AM
Kluber, Carrasco, Sale, Price and Porcello. There is no way the offense can do enough damage to beat this quintet of Cy Young winners and near winners. Is there?
    • USAFChief, Han Joelo, Dantes929 and 3 others like this
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Andrew Thares
Jun 21 2018 07:33 AM

This game was pretty much the exact reverse of Sunday's game.

 

On Sunday the Twins had plenty of chances to get to the starter, but only scratched one run across after going 1-for-10 with RISP and leaving 10 on base, on their way to a 4-1 loss.

 

In this game, it was the Red Sox who had plently of chacnes to get to the starter, but only scratched one run across after going 0-for-9 with RISP and leaving 7 on base, on their way to a 4-1 loss.

    • USAFChief likes this

Even in Lynn's poor early starts he wasn't being hit hard. He should just target the middle of the plate and let the ball do the work. Absolutely no reason not to win today and keep the broom moving when the Rangers get to town. 4 of 6 is always a nice pace but 5 of 6 or even better on this home stand is doable.

As an aside, pitching, always a huge part of the game obviously, is everything right now. Its to point where the stat heads are saying that batting average is no longer important. Bryce Harper is at .213. Sanchez, Yankees catcher, below .200.Its pitching and the long ball period.

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tarheeltwinsfan
Jun 21 2018 07:34 AM

It would be hilarious today for Fernando Rodney to be brought in from the bullpen in a Zamboni. Sweep the Sox. I want to see some brooms in the fans' hands today.

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Andrew Thares
Jun 21 2018 07:51 AM

 

 

As an aside, pitching, always a huge part of the game obviously, is everything right now. Its to point where the stat heads are saying that batting average is no longer important. Bryce Harper is at .213. Sanchez, Yankees catcher, below .200.Its pitching and the long ball period.

I think your missing the point. It's not that batting average isn't important, it's that on-base percentage is far more important as it is basically the same thing as batting average except it controls for how often you walk and get hit by pitches. What makes Harper's .217 AVG bearable is his .347 OBP. Yeah, its been a subpar season for him, but he's having a slightly above-average season based on a league wide standard.

 

When it comes to offensive production, having a better on-base percentage is mathematically proven to be nearly twice as important as a high slugging percentage because not making outs is the most important part of any plate appearance, and then if you can not make outs with some power that's even better.

 

If offense was solely reliant on power, then guys like Chris Carter would be in the league and not in AAA.

    • Minny505 likes this
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Jun 21 2018 07:56 AM

Kluber, Carrasco, Sale, Price and Porcello. There is no way the offense can do enough damage to beat this quintet of Cy Young winners and near winners. Is there?

Our only hope is to out-pitch those guys :)

 

I think your missing the point. It's not that batting average isn't important, it's that on-base percentage is far more important as it is basically the same thing as batting average except it controls for how often you walk and get hit by pitches. What makes Harper's .217 AVG bearable is his .347 OBP. Yeah, its been a subpar season for him, but he's having a slightly above-average season based on a league wide standard.

 

When it comes to offensive production, having a better on-base percentage is mathematically proven to be nearly twice as important as a high slugging percentage because not making outs is the most important part of any plate appearance, and then if you can not make outs with some power that's even better.

 

If offense was solely reliant on power, then guys like Chris Carter would be in the league and not in AAA.

https://www.fangraph...ase-percentage/

 

Are you sure?

    • ashburyjohn, KGB and jkcarew like this
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Andrew Thares
Jun 21 2018 08:21 AM

 

Very much so. Here are a couple articles that prove my point. I also did my own independent research on the topic a couple years ago and found that when you increase a team's OBP by 1 point it increases the teams expected number of runs in a season by 5.2, but when you increase a team's SLUG by 1 point it only increases their expected number of runs in a season by 2.8.  

 

https://www.beyondth...a-bad-statistic

 

https://pubs.aeaweb....57/jep.20.3.173

    • alarp33 likes this

 

Very much so. Here are a couple articles that prove my point. I also did my own independent research on the topic a couple years ago and found that when you increase a team's OBP by 1 point it increases the teams expected number of runs in a season by 5.2, but when you increase a team's SLUG by 1 point it only increases their expected number of runs in a season by 2.8.  

 

https://www.beyondth...a-bad-statistic

 

https://pubs.aeaweb....57/jep.20.3.173

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

"Not making an out" isn't the most important thing a hitter can do, and here's why I believe that:

 

Two hitters, one goes 0-0 with four walks for his team, the other 1-4 with a HR. Which hitter guaranteed his team a run?

 

 

    • KGB and jud6312 like this

 

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

"Not making an out" isn't the most important thing a hitter can do, and here's why I believe that:

 

Two hitters, one goes 0-0 with four walks for his team, the other 1-4 with a HR. Which hitter guaranteed his team a run?

 

There are actual math studies that prove this, it's not really an opinion thing. OBP is worth about twice as much as SLG, like the other poster stated

 

As another example, take one team with a .300/.500 split, and one with a .400/.400 split. Though both teams have an OPS of .800, the first team is expected to score 4.9 runs per game while the second should score about 5.8. This suggests that, in many situations, trading slugging for OBP could be a good idea.

 

https://sportsstatsa...lugging-or-ops/

 

    • 70charger, bizaff, Drew and 1 other like this
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Andrew Thares
Jun 21 2018 08:46 AM

 

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

"Not making an out" isn't the most important thing a hitter can do, and here's why I believe that:

 

Two hitters, one goes 0-0 with four walks for his team, the other 1-4 with a HR. Which hitter guaranteed his team a run?

Well lets use math to figure this one out. The linear weight value of a walk is .55 runs, while the linear weight value of a home run is 1.65 runs (all relative to making an out). So, if a guy walks 4 times his total value was 2.2 runs, while a guy that just hits 1 home run was worth 1.65 runs. So yeah, give me the guy with 4 walks every day of the week.

 

But to your point, which guy didn't use up any of his teams precious 27 outs? Outs are the games currency, you only get 27 of them to spend and the goal is to score as many runs as possible before you've spent them all.

    • alarp33, Loosey and 70charger like this

 

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

"Not making an out" isn't the most important thing a hitter can do, and here's why I believe that:

 

Two hitters, one goes 0-0 with four walks for his team, the other 1-4 with a HR. Which hitter guaranteed his team a run?

But what if the guy with 4 walks scored 3 times?I still like OPS better, which obviously combines the two, mainly because I don't like conflict and having to choose. . . 

Twins continue to be very lucky in these wins, with the other team unable to get hits with men on base. It's good when it happens though!
    • jud6312 likes this

 

Twins continue to be very lucky in these wins, with the other team unable to get hits with men on base. It's good when it happens though!

To your point about it being lucky the other team can't get a hit with men on base, does that mean the Twins had been unlucky the entire first third of the season?

    • Dman likes this
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Aerodeliria
Jun 21 2018 09:06 AM
Oooh, I like the idea of looking at outs as currency. BTW, it's one of the reasons I can tolerate Grossman as a hitter. Despite his BA, he is a fairly patient hitter and ends up walking quite frequently in high leverage situations. His fielding, well that's a different matter.

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by Andrew Thares , 02 Jul 2018
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