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Article: MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:44 AM
That’s more like it! After a demoralizing sweep, the Twins opened up a stretch in which they’ll face the Tigers in seven of their final 1...
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Should the Twins offer Mauer a Koivu-like extension?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:26 AM
Wild GM made a shrewd move I thought giving Koivu an extension at an affordable price in a cap-driven world.   No cap in baseball. N...
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Article: Game Thread: Twins @ Tigers, 9/21@6:10pm CT

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:44 AM
New York was absolutely no fun at all, but it’s ok… we got time to have some fun yet. We have a 4-game series in Detroit that begins toni...
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Twins fire Dougie Baseball

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 05:26 AM
http://m.startribune...?section=sports   Bummer. He sounds pretty pissed about it. Best of luck to him in the future.
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MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record

There have been more than 200,000 games in the history of Major League Baseball, but a team had never hit home runs in each of the first seven innings … until tonight. The Twins made history Tuesday at Target Field, accomplishing that feat in a blowout of San Diego.
Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs)
Attached Image: Sanpshot912.png
Brian Dozier got things started with his 30th homer of the year to lead off the first inning. Then it was Jorge Polanco in the second, Jason Castro in the third, Eddie Rosario in the fourth, Castro again in the fifth, Eduardo Escobar in the sixth and finally Kennys Vargas in the seventh inning. Seeing is believing:

Along with the dingers, there was plenty more to get excited about. Kyle Gibson continued to roll, throwing 6.0 shutout innings of four-hit ball while striking out six batters. Niko Goodrum got his first major league hit, which was well received by the home crowd. Reliever Gabriel Moya made his major league debut and recorded his first strikeout in a clean inning. And both Byron Buxton and Zack Granite made great catches up against the wall in center field.

It doesn’t get any better than this. All together, Castro had three hits, four RBI and scored three runs. Dozier also had a three-hit game, recording his fourth triple of the year. Rosario, Robbie Grossman and Ehire Adrianza all had two hits apiece.

Standings
The Yankees lost, so the Twins now trail New York by 3.0 games for the top Wild Card spot. The Angels trail the Twins by 1.5 games for the second spot, their game was still underway at the time this published.

Postgame With Castro

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen912.png
Looking Ahead
Wed: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Padres (Dinelson Lamet), 7:10 pm CT
Thu: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Blue Jays (Brett Anderson), 7:10 pm CT
Fri: Twins (Bartolo Colon) vs. Blue Jays (J.A. Happ), 7:10 pm CT

Looking Back
KC 11, MIN 3: Big Dud from Big Sexy & Co.
KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss
MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together

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47 Comments

Man, that was a serious pounding. Sounds like Sano might be back within a week too. Twins are setting up to be a little frisky in the playoffs.

 

Vargas won't be back, and I'd be very surprised if they keep Garver over Gimenez. I don't believe they trust Garver defensively, and Gimenez is a proven winner. If it's not broken, don't fix it.

I think if Garver is average defensively but has a better bat, Garver stays. 

 

But, it's an opinion, which, we all know what that's worth. :)

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John Bonnes
Sep 13 2017 09:09 AM

I very much like that every high leverage arm in the bullpen has had three days of complete rest. 

    • Brock Beauchamp, DaveW, Danchat and 2 others like this

 

I know it was low leverage, but it was nice to see Perkins pitch effectively. Im sentimental, but I want him to be an effective pitcher again, even for a short time.

Yeah, he kinda got bailed out by a great play from Granite that was about an inch from going over the wall.I'm not convinced that Perk will ever truly make his way back.

 

I very much like that every high leverage arm in the bullpen has had three days of complete rest. 

We made a trade??  Who'd we get???

    • Mike Sixel likes this

Hey!We are on the plus side of run differential!+6!I don't remember being on the plus side this year.

I was re-surprised to notice the Twins have only been shut out 2 times so far this year by my count (June 22, White Sox and August 1, San Diego). Last year they were shut out 8 times. On the other side, they have scored 10+ runs 14 times so far (one was in a loss to Detroit), with totals in those games of - 11, 14, 11, 20, 10, 11, 11, 10, 12, 10, 11, 17, 10, and 16.

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mickeymental
Sep 13 2017 09:31 AM

 

We made a trade??  Who'd we get???

maybe verlander's eight goose-egg innings against the angels was part of the twins well-crafted master plan. chess versus checkers. 

    • USAFChief, Mike Sixel and 70charger like this

 

You might see Kyle Gibson toss six innings of shutout ball with six K's.

 

Yeah, this is the one that has me thrown. has Kyle Gibson figured it out or is this another mirage from the pitcher I like to call "The Tease"? He's been a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season, but the track record is so spotty it's hard to feel confident that we've finally got the Kyle Gibson we've been hoping for. Still gives up plenty of hits, but when he keeps the ball in the park, gets just a few extra Ks and a few less walks...he's an asset. but we've seen this before...is it sustainable?!?

 

 

 

 

 

Two big moves make the Twins a legit contender next year.

1--sign Moustakas or Hosmer (especially if there is no qualifying offer attached)
2--trade Gordon, two out of Gonsalves/Romero/Thorpe, and a bullpen prospect TB likes for Archer.

Your rotation is Archer, Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson

Your lineup is Dozier, Mauer, Hosmer/Moustakas, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, Castro/Garver

Your bullpen is still an issue, but the easiest one to fix, and as long as it's not a dumpster fire, 95 wins is a real possibility.

 

why is TB trading Archer, if they are a contender? 

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diehardtwinsfan
Sep 13 2017 10:12 AM

 

Yeah, this is the one that has me thrown. has Kyle Gibson figured it out or is this another mirage from the pitcher I like to call "The Tease"? He's been a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season, but the track record is so spotty it's hard to feel confident that we've finally got the Kyle Gibson we've been hoping for. Still gives up plenty of hits, but when he keeps the ball in the park, gets just a few extra Ks and a few less walks...he's an asset. but we've seen this before...is it sustainable?!?

 

will the real Kyle Gibson please stand up?

Someone explain why b-r WAR and fWAR on Archer are this different? bWAR, the one I prefer, has him at 1.3 while fWAR has 4.3. That's a pretty big difference. I know they use different metrics to measure pitchers but that seems like a pretty big variance. 

Vargas won't be back, and I'd be very surprised if they keep Garver over Gimenez. I don't believe they trust Garver defensively, and Gimenez is a proven winner. If it's not broken, don't fix it.

I am sorry to say Gimenez is not a proven winner by any means. Gimenez cannot hit and play below average defense. (3PB in one game).Vargas is not making much and is a good power threat and I think he is coming back.
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Brock Beauchamp
Sep 13 2017 10:42 AM

 

Someone explain why b-r WAR and fWAR on Archer are this different? bWAR, the one I prefer, has him at 1.3 while fWAR has 4.3. That's a pretty big difference. I know they use different metrics to measure pitchers but that seems like a pretty big variance. 

FIP versus ERA. Archer is underperforming his FIP by almost three-quarters of a run this season.

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diehardtwinsfan
Sep 13 2017 10:51 AM

 

You might see Kyle Gibson toss six innings of shutout ball with six K's.

 

since you are on the topic of the paranormal, we may as well add UFOs and Big Foot sightings to the list.

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

FIP versus ERA. Archer is underperforming his FIP by almost three-quarters of a run this season.

Is there a theory as to why there's a big difference this year? Random variance? Bad defense? 

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drivlikejehu
Sep 13 2017 11:28 AM

 

will the real Kyle Gibson please stand up?

 

Fangraphs (Rotographs) had an article on this and concluded his recent results are pretty much a reflection of the teams he's faced. Not everyone agrees but I think the evidence generally supports the idea that he hasn't really changed.

 

Gibson's overall 2017 line is now a near carbon copy of his 2016. That's who he is . . . a borderline 5th starter at best.

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Brock Beauchamp
Sep 13 2017 12:44 PM

 

Is there a theory as to why there's a big difference this year? Random variance? Bad defense? 

It appears random variance, at least from a glance. Archer has been relatively consistent with FIP/ERA over the course of his career and the Rays are a good defensive team.

 

This is what makes baseball amazing.

 

Another amazing baseball stat broken today.... Cleveland 21 wins in a row. 

    • Mike Sixel and snepp like this
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yarnivek1972
Sep 13 2017 07:24 PM

Two big moves make the Twins a legit contender next year.

1--sign Moustakas or Hosmer (especially if there is no qualifying offer attached)
2--trade Gordon, two out of Gonsalves/Romero/Thorpe, and a bullpen prospect TB likes for Archer.

Your rotation is Archer, Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson

Your lineup is Dozier, Mauer, Hosmer/Moustakas, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, Castro/Garver

Your bullpen is still an issue, but the easiest one to fix, and as long as it's not a dumpster fire, 95 wins is a real possibility.


Given the choice, I'd prefer Moustakas over Hosmer. Clearly, the Twins need a plan B at third. Miguel Sano has not started even 80 games there this year. Escobar has filled in admirably, but I really have a hard time beliving he is a .766 OPS, almost 20 HR guy - if he finishes that high, it would be a career best.

He's certainly not the 1.100 OPS guy that we've seen in September.

 

Fangraphs (Rotographs) had an article on this and concluded his recent results are pretty much a reflection of the teams he's faced. Not everyone agrees but I think the evidence generally supports the idea that he hasn't really changed.

 

Gibson's overall 2017 line is now a near carbon copy of his 2016. That's who he is . . . a borderline 5th starter at best.

 

This is what I am afraid of. people are going to get overly excited about The Tease, only to have him fail us once again. It's super hard to trust that Kyle Gibson can be a reliable starter over a full season.

 

This is what I am afraid of. people are going to get overly excited about The Tease, only to have him fail us once again. It's super hard to trust that Kyle Gibson can be a reliable starter over a full season.

On the other hand, that's what a fifth starter is. 30 teams, 5 starters, minimum, Kyle is probably in the 80-100 range of all starters this year.

 

I just looked at fangraphs pitching leaders for starters, min 30 innings, and Gibson in #96 on the list by fWAR and #92 by xfip. Others in that area include Matt Moore, Cole Hamels (he's having a bad year), JC Ramirez, Ryu, Wade Miley by fWAR and Jordan Montgomery, Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman by xfip.  Sure, you'd like to have five starters who all are better than that but it's not normal, especially for lower payroll markets. 

 


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