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It's Never Too Early for Magic Number

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:36 AM
Just a little Spreadsheet fun for those interested in knowing how many wins/losses the Twins need to clinch a playoff spot  ...
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Article: MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:19 PM
One moment it looked like the Twins were going to blow a quality start from Ervin Santana, the next moment they were blowing out the Tige...
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Game Thread: Twins @ Tigers 9-23 5:10 PM CT

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:58 PM
  ANNND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Re-write edition! I am your host for the next 2 days, Vanimal. How NEAT was that ga...
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Walt's daily odds

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:40 PM
Here is daily odds for Twins make playoff levels. Is base from win percent and binomial function.   Win Second Wall Car: 0.62 Win To...
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Happiest surprise for you this season?

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 10:49 PM
Since there isn't a lot going on in the minor leagues right this second, I figured I'd ask what your favorite surprise was this season fo...
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MIN 16, SDP 0: Twins Hit 7 HRs, Set New Record

There have been more than 200,000 games in the history of Major League Baseball, but a team had never hit home runs in each of the first seven innings … until tonight. The Twins made history Tuesday at Target Field, accomplishing that feat in a blowout of San Diego.
Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs)
Attached Image: Sanpshot912.png
Brian Dozier got things started with his 30th homer of the year to lead off the first inning. Then it was Jorge Polanco in the second, Jason Castro in the third, Eddie Rosario in the fourth, Castro again in the fifth, Eduardo Escobar in the sixth and finally Kennys Vargas in the seventh inning. Seeing is believing:

Along with the dingers, there was plenty more to get excited about. Kyle Gibson continued to roll, throwing 6.0 shutout innings of four-hit ball while striking out six batters. Niko Goodrum got his first major league hit, which was well received by the home crowd. Reliever Gabriel Moya made his major league debut and recorded his first strikeout in a clean inning. And both Byron Buxton and Zack Granite made great catches up against the wall in center field.

It doesn’t get any better than this. All together, Castro had three hits, four RBI and scored three runs. Dozier also had a three-hit game, recording his fourth triple of the year. Rosario, Robbie Grossman and Ehire Adrianza all had two hits apiece.

Standings
The Yankees lost, so the Twins now trail New York by 3.0 games for the top Wild Card spot. The Angels trail the Twins by 1.5 games for the second spot, their game was still underway at the time this published.

Postgame With Castro

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen912.png
Looking Ahead
Wed: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Padres (Dinelson Lamet), 7:10 pm CT
Thu: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Blue Jays (Brett Anderson), 7:10 pm CT
Fri: Twins (Bartolo Colon) vs. Blue Jays (J.A. Happ), 7:10 pm CT

Looking Back
KC 11, MIN 3: Big Dud from Big Sexy & Co.
KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss
MIN 8, KC 5: Rosario Drives in 4, Hildenberger Holds it Together

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47 Comments

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Brock Beauchamp
Sep 12 2017 10:10 PM

 

There have been more than 200,000 games in the history of Major League Baseball, but a team had never hit home runs in each of the first seven innings … until tonight. 

This is what makes baseball amazing.

    • ChiTownTwinsFan, ashburyjohn, USAFChief and 13 others like this
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ChiTownTwinsFan
Sep 12 2017 10:26 PM

This is what makes baseball amazing.


Yup. Never know what you'll see on any given night.
    • USAFChief, glunn, Blake and 1 other like this
You knows what baseball is? It's WAY beyond being "America's game". (The NFL has taken over that mantel, to a degree until you factor in longevity vs daily, etc). When was the last time you screamed out "touchdown, field goal, 2 point conversion!" To this day everything is about a base, (including romantic interludes), and a win. In baseball, we measure EVERYTHING. But what we can never fully measure is what baseball brings to us and means to us. Every game is a new day. Filled with hope and possibility. This team gets it. Win or lose, they fight.
    • USAFChief, glunn, spanman2 and 4 others like this
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mickeymental
Sep 12 2017 11:46 PM
trout grounded out to seal the 1-0 angels loss. guess that means he didn't wanna win.
    • USAFChief, Mike Sixel, James and 7 others like this
The offense is good, I don't think the Twins need to add any veteran hitter next season.
1b: Mauer
2b: Dozier
3b: Sano
SS: Polanco
CF: Buxton
LF: Rosario
RF: Kepler
C: Castro
DH: Grossman

Bench: Escobar
Vargas
Garver
Adrianza or Granite

Gimenez should not return and Goodrum is not ready.

The Twins really need to address pitching during the off season, especially the bullpen.
The starting pitching is legit. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia and Slegers might be fine.
Bullpen candidate: Rogers, Hildenberger, Busenitz, Moya, Gee, Belisle, Hughes and some effective veterans.
    • blindeke and Florida Loggerman like this
While I can certainly appreciate the future, and it looks bright here, no question- I'm really just enjoying this season in this moment. They don't always win, but I feel like these guys bust their collective *** and bring it every night. I'mma keep trying to stay in the moment and enjoy my favorite baseball club playing relevant games, in a playoff spot, in mid-September. Never would've thought this was possible in April, or even May.
    • Dman, Vanimal46 and CUtomorrownight like this
One thing that rankles me a bit are these "playoff percentage" thingies.

This morning, for example, Buster Olney tweets the playoff chances of the NYY (97.3%), Twins (55.7%), Angels (21.5%), and Royals (9%). It's cool to weigh the Twins chances against the team closest to them, but it's much easier for me to conceptualize that the Twins have a 2 game lead with 18 to play than it is to ingest these percentages.

And, yes. Stay offa my lawn, you **** kids.
    • USAFChief and HrbekRules like this

I know it was low leverage, but it was nice to see Perkins pitch effectively. Im sentimental, but I want him to be an effective pitcher again, even for a short time.

    • DJSim22 and James like this

Moya was really fun to watch at the end, but I feel like he is going to get called for a balk at least once a game.  That's a crap-ton of pre-pitch motion that he's got going!

trout grounded out to seal the 1-0 angels loss. guess that means he didn't wanna win.


I'm thinking they should probably trade him for starting pitching. If nobody will take him at this point, drop him off the 40-man.
    • Circus Boy likes this

One thing that rankles me a bit are these "playoff percentage" thingies.

This morning, for example, Buster Olney tweets the playoff chances of the NYY (97.3%), Twins (55.7%), Angels (21.5%), and Royals (9%). It's cool to weigh the Twins chances against the team closest to them, but it's much easier for me to conceptualize that the Twins have a 2 game lead with 18 to play than it is to ingest these percentages.

And, yes. Stay offa my lawn, you **** kids.


I like it. It shows exaxtly what the 2 games in 18 means (roughly a coin flip).

Different strokes, I guess.
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Florida Loggerman
Sep 13 2017 07:31 AM

my hope is that the Twins will be able to come down to earth in todays game, and simply not let last nights home run barrage effect todays important finale with the weak Padres.Great over kill win, hopefully we have kept enough power in our bats so we can enjoy a home run or two today behind Santana when we really need itl;Love watching the team pick up the Defense, Tom Kelly has to be sitting at home and similing, Defense was his strong point. Keep up the strong finish Twins. not sure if our mess of middle arms can keep us in the final weeks AL WC race

Tonight will be an interesting matchup for the hot Twins offense against a hot pitcher in Lamet.  The young fireballer has an ERA in the mid 2's since the All-Star break, and well over a K per inning.  Twins need to make sure they take the walks he will give, then come through with RISP.

 

trout grounded out to seal the 1-0 angels loss. guess that means he didn't wanna win.

 

excellent use of narrative!

 

One thing that rankles me a bit are these "playoff percentage" thingies.

This morning, for example, Buster Olney tweets the playoff chances of the NYY (97.3%), Twins (55.7%), Angels (21.5%), and Royals (9%). It's cool to weigh the Twins chances against the team closest to them, but it's much easier for me to conceptualize that the Twins have a 2 game lead with 18 to play than it is to ingest these percentages.

And, yes. Stay offa my lawn, you **** kids.

At the trade deadline they were less than 7%.  I said they were just a modest winning streak (5 of 6 or so)  from quadrupling that percentage.  Of course, they had to actually go on that modest winning streak. Same thing here. Its a little better than a coin flip because they have a 2 game lead and a weak schedule but they have to actually win those weak schedule games not to mention there are other teams that can go on a decent winning streak. Fun times.

I know it was low leverage, but it was nice to see Perkins pitch effectively. Im sentimental, but I want him to be an effective pitcher again, even for a short time.


After the robbed home run, he looked halfway decent. I'd love to see Perk continue his career to be honest. Even if he is just a 4th or 5th option out of a pen.

At the trade deadline they were less than 7%. I said they were just a modest winning streak (5 of 6 or so) from quadrupling that percentage. Of course, they had to actually go on that modest winning streak. Same thing here. Its a little better than a coin flip because they have a 2 game lead and a weak schedule but they have to actually win those weak schedule games not to mention there are other teams that can go on a decent winning streak. Fun times.


Yeah the problem isn't so much the Angels, it's that there are like 4 other teams within striking distance, where a 10-2 run would almost certainly catipult them into the spot if the Twins play .500 or slightly above .500 ball

 

The offense is good, I don't think the Twins need to add any veteran hitter next season.
1b: Mauer
2b: Dozier
3b: Sano
SS: Polanco
CF: Buxton
LF: Rosario
RF: Kepler
C: Castro
DH: Grossman

Bench: Escobar
Vargas
Garver
Adrianza or Granite

Gimenez should not return and Goodrum is not ready.

The Twins really need to address pitching during the off season, especially the bullpen.
The starting pitching is legit. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia and Slegers might be fine.
Bullpen candidate: Rogers, Hildenberger, Busenitz, Moya, Gee, Belisle, Hughes and some effective veterans.

 

They could use a better 1B bat than Vargas. I know he went yard off of a AAA pitcher last night but he just doesn't have it. I want them to find a 1 year deal for a lefty-mashing DH/1B/OF type to take that spot.

 

But otherwise, no reason to mess with anything. Escobar and Grossman etc. also bridge the gap to your Rookers and Gordons who are coming up.

Adrianza over Granite. He can hit right handed and play IF. His OF defense has been un-infielder-like.

    • LA VIkes Fan likes this

 

The Twins really need to address pitching during the off season, especially the bullpen.
The starting pitching is legit. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia and Slegers might be fine.
Bullpen candidate: Rogers, Hildenberger, Busenitz, Moya, Gee, Belisle, Hughes and some effective veterans.

 

The starting pitching needs some depth. They don't need to go get a front-end starter (though I wouldn't be heart-broken) but this year shows that you need some depth. May should be back but who knows what May. Gonsalves and Romero and Jorge are barking at the door but not sure they're there yet. I'd like one back-end starter on a short deal (maybe someone trying to build value after injury?) who the Twins can deal if a young guy needs to come up.

 

Yup. Never know what you'll see on any given night.

You might see Kyle Gibson toss six innings of shutout ball with six K's.

 

 

    • ChiTownTwinsFan, Blake, Danchat and 3 others like this
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Brock Beauchamp
Sep 13 2017 08:46 AM

Yeah the problem isn't so much the Angels, it's that there are like 4 other teams within striking distance, where a 10-2 run would almost certainly catipult them into the spot if the Twins play .500 or slightly above .500 ball

Thankfully, three of those teams are in the AL West and they all play each other down the stretch. That decreases the odds of going on a tear and passing the Twins.
    • gunnarthor and Circus Boy like this
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ChiTownTwinsFan
Sep 13 2017 08:47 AM

 

You might see Kyle Gibson toss six innings of shutout ball with six K's.

See? There's always something! :)

    • Blake likes this
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howieramone2
Sep 13 2017 08:57 AM

 

The offense is good, I don't think the Twins need to add any veteran hitter next season.
1b: Mauer
2b: Dozier
3b: Sano
SS: Polanco
CF: Buxton
LF: Rosario
RF: Kepler
C: Castro
DH: Grossman

Bench: Escobar
Vargas
Garver
Adrianza or Granite

Gimenez should not return and Goodrum is not ready.

The Twins really need to address pitching during the off season, especially the bullpen.
The starting pitching is legit. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia and Slegers might be fine.
Bullpen candidate: Rogers, Hildenberger, Busenitz, Moya, Gee, Belisle, Hughes and some effective veterans.

Vargas won't be back, and I'd be very surprised if they keep Garver over Gimenez. I don't believe they trust Garver defensively, and Gimenez is a proven winner. If it's not broken, don't fix it.

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Cap'n Piranha
Sep 13 2017 09:02 AM
Two big moves make the Twins a legit contender next year.

1--sign Moustakas or Hosmer (especially if there is no qualifying offer attached)
2--trade Gordon, two out of Gonsalves/Romero/Thorpe, and a bullpen prospect TB likes for Archer.

Your rotation is Archer, Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson

Your lineup is Dozier, Mauer, Hosmer/Moustakas, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, Castro/Garver

Your bullpen is still an issue, but the easiest one to fix, and as long as it's not a dumpster fire, 95 wins is a real possibility.

 

Two big moves make the Twins a legit contender next year.

1--sign Moustakas or Hosmer (especially if there is no qualifying offer attached)
2--trade Gordon, two out of Gonsalves/Romero/Thorpe, and a bullpen prospect TB likes for Archer.

Your rotation is Archer, Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Gibson

Your lineup is Dozier, Mauer, Hosmer/Moustakas, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, Castro/Garver

Your bullpen is still an issue, but the easiest one to fix, and as long as it's not a dumpster fire, 95 wins is a real possibility.

 

Qualifying offer no longer costs a draft pick.

 

That isn't enough for Archer.


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