Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

2019/2020 Twins Minor League Signings

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 09:53 AM
This is a forum to update Twins minor league signings (and can be where we post Twins minor league free agents that signed elsewhere)....
Full topic ›

Keith Law's top 100 prospects

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 09:13 AM
Only 3 Twins' players:   9. Alex Kirilloff OF 31. Royce Lewis, SS/OF 69. Jordan Balazovic, RHP   Graterol is not included eithe...
Full topic ›

Astros, Bauer, Pohlad's, Twins, Future of MLB

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 08:53 AM
BIG title right? But I think MLB is sitting at a unique precipice right now, and we, as baseball fans, should be concerned about everythi...
Full topic ›

What Makes a Shortstop a Great Defender?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 08:19 AM
When Statcast came out with infield defensive ratingsat the end of 2019, Jorge Polanco appeared at the bottom of the SS list. Using actua...
Full topic ›

Spring Training Game Thread: Twins @ Rays 2/26/202020ad

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:52 PM
It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times. And TD had yet to jinx the Twins... Oh right. I need to find a line up...
Full topic ›

Recent Blogs


Making a Mega Deal for the Twins

Back at the July 31st trade deadline Star Tribune beat writer LaVelle E. Neal keyed in on the talks had between the New York Mets and the Minnesota Twins. Names like Noah Syndergaard and Byron Buxton were tossed around, but nothing came to fruition. What happens if a blockbuster is the avenue to impact pitching this winter?
Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
If there was a misstep by the front office at the deadline, it was missing on the Toronto Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman. Maybe the Canadians never circled back, but Minnesota easily could have trumped the New York offer. Eventually they pivoted to talking with the Mets directly, and the man coined Thor reportedly came up in talks. Byron Buxton was the ask, and that was out of the question. Injury makes it easy to judge that in hindsight, but it remains a logical position from the Twins brass. What if there was another way to do that deal though?

Parting ways with Byron Buxton in the middle of a record-breaking season would have been asinine for the Twins. Flipping him off of an injury, while he still looks the part of a superstar due to his exploits in the field and rise at the dish, would remain an odd proposition. If Syndergaard was on the table then though, he may still remain so, and going the route of quantity could be enough to reach the finish line.

The key for the Mets during the season was an acquisition of major league-ready players. They have just lost Zack Wheeler, and had parted with top prospects to bring in an aging Robinson Cano. Despite being in the big city, Carlos Beltran’s squad remains the kid brother to the Bronx Bombers. Rebuilding the overall talent pool is something that Brodie van Wagenen should be focused on, and a plethora of impact prospects would certainly advance that possibility.

Syndergaard is under team control for two more seasons, at which point he’ll be entering his age-29 season. He will soon become quite expensive, and that would need to be a consideration for any acquiring team as well. Blending a return that satisfies some immediate assistance with future gain is the way I’d attack this if I were the Twins.

Mets receive: Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, Blayne Enlow, and Travis Blankenhorn

Twins receive: Noah Syndergaard

In this scenario Minnesota is giving up a current big leaguer who has posted just shy of 8.0 fWAR over the past three seasons in Rosario. He’s a left-handed bat that would immediately boost the New York outfield, and at 28-years-old, becomes an extension candidate should things trend upwards prior to his free agency in 2022. A former first-round pick and current top 100 prospect, Trevor Larnach represents future value that is very close to paying dividends. He’s a power corner guy with a pretty safe floor.

Moving to the second half of the deal, New York would be looking to cash in on the ceiling. Enlow was an above slot deal back in 2017 and has looked the part at each level. He’s still a developing arm, but a 50 future value makes him an intriguing option in the middle of a rotation. Blankenhorn could end up being more of a utility guy, but there is a lot to like in his profile. He does a lot of things well and looks like a pretty safe bet to contribute at the major league level.

Certainly, this is a haul for the Twins to part with, but they’d be doing so to acquire a bona fide ace. Ideally an extension could be worked out with Syndergaard but that’s probably a lofty ask given the impending payday coming on the open market. Pairing the current roster with a solid number one could be the needle-moving decision that strengthens a likely postseason battle with the Yankees in each of the next two seasons.

No matter how Minnesota ends up acquiring the impact arm they talked about heading into the offseason, a level of risk and decisive action will need to be taken. Hyun-Jin Ryu is among the small list of names still warranting a hefty payday, while prospect capital or eating salary from another organization represent the alternative modes of spend.

The trade market is a difficult one to nail down. Between having multiple options (of which some very intriguing scenarios were recently presented by Skor North’s Jake Depue), and uncertain returns (looking at you Cleveland Indians), we really never know what to expect.

How would you feel about this move, and what would you do differently?

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email


  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

54 Comments

If we can get Syndergaard for that package I take it everytime. Keeping Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran in a trade for a pitcher like Thor would be an absolute gift. I wouldn't be surprised if they'd rather base the trade around one of the top 5 and Eddie to trade off more players involved for more impact players involved.
    • Twins33, Mike Frasier Law, alphanumeric and 9 others like this
Photo
sweetmusicviola16
Dec 17 2019 09:23 PM

Its been widely reported that the Mets aren't interested in trading Syndegaard and this offer I don't believe will change their minds. We aren't getting an Ace for COF Larnach and 3 throw ins imo. Would we be willing to take this deal if the tables were turned?

 

Its probably time to swing the deal with the Pirates for Chris Archer. Maybe getting reunited with Odo would get his career back on track.

    • Twins33 and raindog like this
Photo
strumdatjaguar
Dec 17 2019 09:24 PM
How about trade all those prospects and Rosario for Hershel Walker instead? Don’t make this proposed trade
    • nokomismod likes this
I wouldn’t trade Stroman for that package if I were the Mets. A league average LF/RF who isn’t cheap and has 2 years left, a high-floor medium-ceiling LF/RF prospect, a potential Utility player and a pitcher who might sniff the bigs. Also, I would guess 22 teams could easily and painlessly top that package.
    • chpettit19, dbminn and sweetmusicviola16 like this

This proposal fails at baseballtradevalues.com, rather badly: 75-40

 

I'm open to the idea that the site is over-valuing Syndergaard -- but then again, likely so are the Mets. And that's a pretty wide gulf to bridge.

    • SQUIRREL, ashbury, nokomismod and 12 others like this

At this point just pick up a salary dump like David Price and still keep all of the above players.

    • chpettit19 and lukeduke1980 like this
Photo
sweetmusicviola16
Dec 17 2019 09:58 PM

 

If we can get Syndergaard for that package I take it everytime. Keeping Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran in a trade for a pitcher like Thor would be an absolute gift. I wouldn't be surprised if they'd rather base the trade around one of the top 5 and Eddie to trade off more players involved for more impact players involved.

Are you saying that this deal is a steal? Why would the Mets take it then?

Photo
nicksaviking
Dec 17 2019 09:59 PM
I know everyone likes Philly, Washington and Atlanta, but I think the Mets are the team to beat in the NL East. Top to bottom that team looks really good, I don’t think they’re selling.
    • chpettit19, lukeduke1980 and Doctor Wu like this
Photo
drivlikejehu
Dec 17 2019 11:38 PM

The Mets are trying to win the World Series. The idea that they would trade Syndergaard is just not in line with reality. Not even worth message board conjecture.

    • chpettit19 and Dome Dogg like this

I am beginning to feel the same way about Arizona. They added Bumgarner they may just keep Ray and try to make the playoffs.

    • nicksaviking and wabene like this
The teams we could potentially trade for a pitcher due to budget or team is rebuilding include: SF, Col, Pittsburgh, Miami, Boston, KC, Det, Sea. Maybe Cubs.
    • lukeduke1980 and wabene like this
That's not close to enough to get Thor, IMO.
    • chpettit19 and Doctor Wu like this
The last time the Twins made any mega trade was.....oh yah never.
    • alphanumeric likes this

 

That's not close to enough to get Thor, IMO.

I agree, The Mets would want some much better players or prospects. But as others have already remarked, I doubt they are even thinking of trading him at this point.

 

Are you saying that this deal is a steal? Why would the Mets take it then?

I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a steal. Those are solid players involved as Ted outlines, and all of them have a legit shot at being valuable for a major league team. My point is that you think about trading for an ace and you think of giving up one of the top 2 hitters or top 3 pitchers because they're all guys where the sky is the limit since Syndergaard doesn't have a David Price contract. A lot of times for a guy like that they'd want guys that have similar upside that looks more achievable, but if they want quantity over quality (although the pieces listed are still quality) I would definitely be willing to pull the trigger.

Photo
In My La-Z-boy
Dec 18 2019 08:22 AM

In your very intriguing scenarios link the only ones I like are the Alcantara deal and the Price deal. I don't think the Mets will be reasonable and I don't like bailing on Sano and Buxton. I'm expecting their 2 best years coming up. Your deal above I would do. I don't see the Mets doing it. I'm also in on an Archer trade if they are reasonable, but how do you reverse course on that considering what they gave up? Geez the Pirates blew that deal.

    • sweetmusicviola16 likes this

This proposal fails at baseballtradevalues.com, rather badly: 75-40
 
I'm open to the idea that the site is over-valuing Syndergaard -- but then again, likely so are the Mets. And that's a pretty wide gulf to bridge.


I was playing around with this yesterday with Musgrove from the Priates. I noticed it would take a top 4 guy to complete that trade according to the site.

But personally I am not the biggest fan of Thor, he is hurt almost every season, and his performance against above .500 team is not something I would expect in a "Ace"
I think the problem is that these teams all need their Syndergaard's way more than they need their Buxton's and Rosario's right now. Almost every team is all in right now to at least make the wild card. Tampa Bay a year or two ago were dumping guys, but they already had their replacements in hand. So Cleveland dumping Kluber isn't really a sign that they have given up either, they already have real good young pitchers to take over. I don't think there is any way anyone will pry a Syndergaard away from the Mets. I mean they are signing 4th and 5th guys for the rotation as we speak, guys like Porcello. You are not going out there and shoring up your rotation for the beginning of the year only to dump one of your best guys. I mean in order to get someone like that it would have to be such an extreme overpay where they couldn't refuse. No one, especially the Twins will offer up some crazy overpay. Right now, for whatever reason, almost all of the teams are all in. Not only that, but almost all teams value their systems more than they used to. So the Twins and a few other teams would develop within and teams like the Dodgers would be out buying whoever they could and would dump their minor league depth in order to do so. But not anymore. Everyone is holding on. Only way a mega deal gets done is at the deadline.
    • chpettit19 likes this
Photo
Major League Ready
Dec 18 2019 08:36 AM

 

I know everyone likes Philly, Washington and Atlanta, but I think the Mets are the team to beat in the NL East. Top to bottom that team looks really good, I don’t think they’re selling.

 

Not to mention BV would essentially be saying he screwed up so badly after 1 year at the job that he already needs to tear down the team. Not happening.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets, even with WS aspirations, would be open to dealing Syndergaard, just like they floated at the 2019 deadline, but it certainly wouldn't be for a package like this. Right now, it would take Mackenzie Gore, or Buxton plus Lewis -- something elite.

 

Of course, I don't think 2 years of Syndergaard is probably worth that at this point, so effectively, he's not getting traded.

    • Steve Lein and sweetmusicviola16 like this

 

I was playing around with this yesterday with Musgrove from the Priates. I noticed it would take a top 4 guy to complete that trade according to the site.

Mostly straight up, that's probably what it would take. I could also see a package involving the next tier (Balazovic, Duran, Jeffers).

 

Although I kinda doubt Musgrove is worth that for the Twins right now. And the Pirates likely want to bet on him, at least one more season, to see if he can break out and fetch that kind of return before they settle for something less.

 

How about trade all those prospects and Rosario for Hershel Walker instead? Don’t make this proposed trade

I think Bo Jackson would be better. Don't you love all the wanna be GMs?

That's not a fair trade for the Mets at all.
    • Twins33, alphanumeric, Vanimal46 and 1 other like this

When I read the majority of the potential trades thrown out on these sites, I usually shake my head and think they are crazy.This one, not so much.

 

The Rosario haters will tell us that no way would the Mets make this deal.And as far as baseballtradevalues is concerned, my son's chocolate lab is probably more accurate than what I see from most of their calculations.  

 

But should the Mets want a little more on the pitching front, perhaps Blankenhorn gets replaced with another starter, say Duran (anybody other than Graterol and Balazovic).In any case, this deal would be dependent on Thor agreeing to an extension of at least another year or two.

 

But a deal like this sure would be a nice present under the Twins tree this winter, eh?

    • alphanumeric and wabene like this

Yeah that package isn't even close.  

 

They wanted Buxton+ and I'd say he himself had more value than this deal in it's entirety at the deadline.

    • Vanimal46 likes this

Similar Articles


by Ted Schwerzler , Yesterday, 03:44 PM
Photo


by Ted Schwerzler , 25 Feb 2020
Photo


by Cody Christie , 24 Feb 2020
Photo


by Cody Christie , 22 Feb 2020
Photo


by Ted Schwerzler , 20 Feb 2020
Photo