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LAA 5, MIN 4: More Missed Opportunities

The powerful Twins lineup mashed a couple more home runs tonight, but the team's struggles to deliver clutch hits continued. They combined to go 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and Jose Berrios had his worst start of the season as the Twins dropped the series opener to the Angels 5-4.
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Box Score
Berrios: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 62.4% strikes (63 of 101 pitches)
Home Runs: Polanco (8), Gonzalez (4)
Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-for-5, HR), Rosario (2-for-4)
WPA of +0.1: Astudillo .178, Gonzalez .110
WPA of -0.1: Kepler -.117, Buxton -.171, Garver -.182, Castro -.210, Berrios -.332
Attached Image: Win513.png
(chart via FanGraphs)

Neither pitcher looked good early on, as Jose Berrios and Tyler Skaggs combined to throw 121 pitches through the first three innings. In the fourth inning, Berrios matched his season high in hits allowed (eight) and recorded his first ground ball double play of the season when he got Shohei Ohtani to ground into a 4-6-3 on a 3-0 pitch to end the inning.

Worst Start of the Year for Berrios
The struggles for Berrios didn’t end after he induced the fourth inning double play. In the fifth inning, a replay challenge ruled Andrelton Simmons was safe on a stolen base and he later scored on a seeing-eye ground ball from Albert Pujols. Jose also served up two home runs, the first to Shohei Ohtani in the third inning and the second to Tommy La Stella in the sixth.

After allowing two base runners following the La Stella home run, Berrios' night was cut short after 5 2/3 innings. For the first time this season, Jose was pulled prior to completing six innings. He surrendered 12 hits and allowed five earned runs with only three strikeouts on 101 pitches. Simply put, he did not look like his usual self tonight.

Resilient Twins Offense Strikes Again
The Angels weren’t the only ones having fun at the plate. Thanks to a pair of two-run home runs from Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins tied the score at four apiece in the bottom of the fifth inning. If not for having an Angel in the outfield, it very well could have been three home runs for the Twins but Garver’s blast came up just short of the flower beds in left and instead landed in the outfielders glove.

Coming Up Just Short
The bullpen kept the Twins alive, keeping the Angels off the board over three plus innings. A double from La Tortuga to lead off the eight showed promise of another late inning rally but the offense fell short and were unable to drive him in.

With the top of the order due up in the ninth, the Twins had one last chance to come from behind. Unfortunately it didn't go their way. They were retired in order and for only the third time this year the Twins dropped back to back games.

Postgame With Baldelli

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen513.png
Next Three Games
Tue vs. LAA, 6:40 pm CT (Gibson-Pena)
Wed vs. LAA, 12:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Cahill)
Thu at SEA, 9:10 pm CT (TBD)

Last Game
DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem


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57 Comments

Second, having seen these studies before, I believe the math shows that in certain situations, sac buntingactually increases the chances of scoring exactly one run, while lowering the chances of scoring multiple runs.

Yes. This is key. (The other points you raised are also valid.)

 

In the early part of the game, you don't really have much idea how many runs you need. So don't do things that reduce the average number of runs.

 

Late in the game when it's close, you have a better idea of the value of one solitary run. Then you do things that increase the chance of scoring anything at all.

 

Unless I missed something, the tables in the linked article were for average numbers of runs. "We’ll touch on run expectancy and bunting today, and cover probability another day." Someone needs to go find that other article.

 

Yes. This is key. (The other points you raised are also valid.)

 

In the early part of the game, you don't really have much idea how many runs you need. So don't do things that reduce the average number of runs.

 

Late in the game when it's close, you have a better idea of the value of one solitary run. Then you do things that increase the chance of scoring anything at all.

 

Unless I missed something, the tables in the linked article were for average numbers of runs. "We’ll touch on run expectancy and bunting today, and cover probability another day." Someone needs to go find that other article.

https://www.athletic...of-the-sac-bunt

 

try this. Unfortunately, it doesn't cover bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with 0 out.

 

 

Photo
yarnivek1972
May 14 2019 04:02 PM
The Twins have a lot of guys that lack plate discipline, even moreso with Cruz on the shelf.

The result is going to be a lot of bad at bats. The times when good at bats are IMPERATIVE are the RISP ABs. This is a problem that is not going to go away with this group of hitters. This is simply who they are.
    • USAFChief likes this

 

This is where commas are important.

 

I meant that. 

 

I'm sick and tired of ball guys.:)

    • ashbury, USAFChief and 70charger like this

 

did you read the math article?

 

Bunting there decreases your odds of scoring by 5%, give or take. Seems odd, but it does.

 

I did

 

Run expectancy: how many runs we can expect to score, on average, given a specific base/out state.

 

That explains everything right there. "how many"? 

 

The chart illustrates that you will score less runs on average when you bunt and this is because when you sacrifice an out... you also sacrifice one-third of your ability to score multiple runs and therefore make it harder to hang a 6 on the scoreboard. As a result you score less runs and reduce expectancy in the process. 

 

The chart the article needs: What happens to the percentages of scoring one run and one run only. That's the chart that will tell you if Kepler or Adrianza should have bunted last night in the 8th. 

We didn't need 6 runs... we needed 1.:)

Photo
TheLeviathan
May 14 2019 06:56 PM

I don't think enough was said in this thread that our bullpen did a pretty good job giving us a chance.

 

We're quick to rip them when they blow a game, but with how bad Berrios was we only had a shot because the bullpen held down a big chunk of the game.

    • ashbury and Riverbrian like this

I don't think enough was said in this thread that our bullpen did a pretty good job giving us a chance.

We're quick to rip them when they blow a game, but with how bad Berrios was we only had a shot because the bullpen held down a big chunk of the game.

if by bullpen you mean Taylor Rogers, then yeah. Agreed.

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