Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Game Thread: Twins vs Red Sox, 6/18/19, 7:10 PM

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:33 PM
The Twins have lost back-to-back games!! Oh my gosh, the world must be coming to an end. On a less extreme note, the Twins are still in f...
Full topic ›

Target: Luis Castillo

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:26 PM
With the Reds in a seemingly perpetual rebuild, what would a package for Castillo look like? They also have some other arms that may be o...
Full topic ›

Interesting article about Derek Johnson

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:08 PM
This article provides some insights as to why the Twins' pitching has improved this year --  https://fivethirtyei...-real-surpr...
Full topic ›

Article: Why Miguel Sano's Strikeouts Are Not a Problem

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:25 PM
Miguel Sano has played in 17 games for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. He missed the beginning of the season rehabbing from an Achilles inju...
Full topic ›

Article: Potential Prospect Cost in Twins Trades

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:51 PM
As we move closer to July, we also push towards the looming Major League Baseball trade deadline. With the waiver period being removed in...
Full topic ›

LAA 5, MIN 4: More Missed Opportunities

The powerful Twins lineup mashed a couple more home runs tonight, but the team's struggles to deliver clutch hits continued. They combined to go 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and Jose Berrios had his worst start of the season as the Twins dropped the series opener to the Angels 5-4.
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Box Score
Berrios: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 62.4% strikes (63 of 101 pitches)
Home Runs: Polanco (8), Gonzalez (4)
Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-for-5, HR), Rosario (2-for-4)
WPA of +0.1: Astudillo .178, Gonzalez .110
WPA of -0.1: Kepler -.117, Buxton -.171, Garver -.182, Castro -.210, Berrios -.332
Attached Image: Win513.png
(chart via FanGraphs)

Neither pitcher looked good early on, as Jose Berrios and Tyler Skaggs combined to throw 121 pitches through the first three innings. In the fourth inning, Berrios matched his season high in hits allowed (eight) and recorded his first ground ball double play of the season when he got Shohei Ohtani to ground into a 4-6-3 on a 3-0 pitch to end the inning.

Worst Start of the Year for Berrios
The struggles for Berrios didn’t end after he induced the fourth inning double play. In the fifth inning, a replay challenge ruled Andrelton Simmons was safe on a stolen base and he later scored on a seeing-eye ground ball from Albert Pujols. Jose also served up two home runs, the first to Shohei Ohtani in the third inning and the second to Tommy La Stella in the sixth.

After allowing two base runners following the La Stella home run, Berrios' night was cut short after 5 2/3 innings. For the first time this season, Jose was pulled prior to completing six innings. He surrendered 12 hits and allowed five earned runs with only three strikeouts on 101 pitches. Simply put, he did not look like his usual self tonight.

Resilient Twins Offense Strikes Again
The Angels weren’t the only ones having fun at the plate. Thanks to a pair of two-run home runs from Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins tied the score at four apiece in the bottom of the fifth inning. If not for having an Angel in the outfield, it very well could have been three home runs for the Twins but Garver’s blast came up just short of the flower beds in left and instead landed in the outfielders glove.

Coming Up Just Short
The bullpen kept the Twins alive, keeping the Angels off the board over three plus innings. A double from La Tortuga to lead off the eight showed promise of another late inning rally but the offense fell short and were unable to drive him in.

With the top of the order due up in the ninth, the Twins had one last chance to come from behind. Unfortunately it didn't go their way. They were retired in order and for only the third time this year the Twins dropped back to back games.

Postgame With Baldelli

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen513.png
Next Three Games
Tue vs. LAA, 6:40 pm CT (Gibson-Pena)
Wed vs. LAA, 12:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Cahill)
Thu at SEA, 9:10 pm CT (TBD)

Last Game
DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem


  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

57 Comments

Well, there will be games like this, there will be stretches like this throughout the long season. 

 

Good teams find ways to not make them last very long.  

 

Our 2 strongest pitchers so far both had rough games, back to back. The hitters didn't come through AT ALL in high-leverage situations. It's a couple of games so far, winnable games in winnable series'. Doesn't make it any less frustrating, but, there it is. 

 

Go get 'em tomorrow.

 

    • glunn, pbrezeasap, Minny505 and 1 other like this
Photo
Aerodeliria
May 13 2019 09:31 PM

This was a typical managerial mistake that is often made when trying to get a starting pitcher a win. I was worried that Berrios would come out for the 6th once the Twins tied it, but it was clear he didn't have his best stuff so he should have taken his seat at the end of the bench.

 

Again, the Twins did not get the bit hit when they needed it, but once they had tied it, I had optimism that they could win it. The home run took a bit of wind out of everyone's sails.

    • glunn, h2oface, Dman and 1 other like this
And THAT is why traditionally you don’t have the best pitcher in the back of the bullpen enter games when trailing. It’s a gamble, and Rocco lost the bet. Berrios has struggled controlling the curve many of his starts so far...his mediocre FIP and K/9 heading into today’s start reflected that, despite the favorable results. It was bound to bite him eventually.
    • h2oface and Dman like this
Photo
Aerodeliria
May 13 2019 11:28 PM

PS-Now I have to watch highlights of Ohtani's home run over and over again :-(...

Burning Rodgers in a losing effort, and having him in when they were always behind. I can understand one inning to keep it close, and I know that he needed work, but to burn him for at least tomorrow and maybe wednesday with 31 pitches in 11 innings? Odd management. Is that what the analytics say to do? Plus, dropping a position player when you have one out but not on the IL to replace him.... means a bench of 2. Odd again. Not smart odd.

 

So.... we have lost 3 of the last 4, at home, to teams with losing records. The season settles in, eh? There have be so many barely missed homers. And Berrios was really pretty horrible today. 12 hits. More than 2/inning average.

 

What do all you Marwin doubters think now?

    • Aerodeliria likes this

 

PS-Now I have to watch highlights of Ohtani's home run over and over again :-(...

 

That pitch from Berrios to Otani was so right down the middle with no movement.

    • Aerodeliria likes this

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.

Photo
Aerodeliria
May 14 2019 03:21 AM

This game was so annoying....even the interview. The reporterette asked Rocco, "Why did you let Berrios come out for the 6th?" HAHAHAHA....Just kidding. That would have been a rational question. Her question instead was,"How did you know it was time to take Berrios out of the game?" How?? Is that even a real question? He just gave up his 12th hit in 5 + innings! I mean come on; that was softball sitting on a batting tee.

 

Let's hope tomorrow, we'll play baseball that will make this game fade from our memories....("Stupid Ohtani highlights" think Homer Simpson's voice).

    • Tomj14 likes this
Photo
Old Twins Cap
May 14 2019 05:55 AM

Hope MLB gets a urine test on Tommy La Stella. 

 

He's cracked 10 HRs this year, and took an off-speed pitch out to LF.

 

When HOF'er Albert Pujols goes oppo, it's dribblers, but not La Stella.

    • lukeduke1980 likes this

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

 

 

 

 

 

    • USAFChief, glunn, pbrezeasap and 7 others like this

I think this team will be fine. It's unfortunate they've been kinda playing with the 'B' team for the past couple of days. We might get the "B" team for the remainder of this series, unfortunately. Glad Castro will be on the bench tonight, Kepler will be back in his leadoff spot, and hopefully we'll have an infield of Astudillo, Polaco, Schoop and Cron. A few nagging problems:

 

1. Get Cruz back ASAP - unfortunately the Twins will be careful with him, but he'll be okay. Maybe he'll wait until Seattle to play?

 

2. Schoop has been out with a sore left shoulder. Odd injury...

 

3. Perez and Berrios show they're human. No biggie, but it hurts that the two best pitchers haven't been at their best when the Twins feel desperate for wins.

 

4. Sano is on the way. I think the Twins may need this guy sooner rather than later....but be careful what you wish for. The guy will still have games where he strikes out 3-4 times. Here's hoping he doesn't have one of those games right away upon his return.

    • glunn and Aerodeliria like this

 

 

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

 

Kepler absolutely has to advance the runner there. You can swing for the fences all you want, but if you get a gift situation like that in the 8th inning you get that runner over by hook or by crook!

    • USAFChief, glunn, Riverbrian and 5 others like this

 

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

There are still times when "productive outs" really are productive. No matter how hard some people scoff at the idea.

 

Sometimes you fail, everyone does, but that was a terrible PA by Kepler. Not just unproductive, uncompetitive.

    • glunn, Riverbrian, woolywoolhouse and 3 others like this

There are still times when "productive outs" really are productive. No matter how hard some people scoff at the idea.

Sometimes you fail, everyone does, but that was a terrible PA by Kepler. Not just unproductive, uncompetitive.


I know you are not a bunt guy. I’m not a bunt guy either Because I’m a big believer in the crooked number and not making outs is how you produce the crooked number and producing the crooked number produces wins.

However... if you are ever going to bunt... That would have been the time because the clock was running out.

Once it is determined that you are not going to bunt. You better be able to pull that ball and get the runner over.

Oh well... tomorrow is another day.
    • USAFChief and glunn like this

 

I know you are not a bunt guy. I’m not a bunt guy either Because I’m a big believer in the crooked number and not making outs is how you produce the crooked number and producing the crooked number produces wins.

However... if you are ever going to bunt... That would have been the time because the clock was running out.

Once it is determined that you are not going to bunt. You better be able to pull that ball and get the runner over.

Oh well... tomorrow is another day.

Adrianza could have bunted.I question using Schoop as a PR.He has more value with his bat. I do like bunts and this was definitely a place where the bunt would have had great value.

    • Aerodeliria likes this

3. Perez and Berrios show they're human. No biggie, but it hurts that the two best pitchers haven't been at their best when the Twins feel desperate for wins.


The Twins felt desperate for wins the past two days? At 25-13 (now 25-15)?
    • pbrezeasap likes this
Photo
Tom Froemming
May 14 2019 08:13 AM

 

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.

Not sure where to dig up the numbers specifically on shifting, but I know the Twins are inside the top five in shifts and have allowed the 11th-lowest BABIP in baseball, .284. Last season they ranked 25th with a .302 BABIP. 

 

I'm not saying those stats make it an open and close case, there's a lot of other factors to consider about why that BABIP is so much lower, and there was quite a bit of turnover in terms of personnel, but they're doing something right. That's a pretty significant increase in balls in play they're turning into outs. But when the shift doesn't work it most definitely stands out a lot more than when it does.

    • glunn and Hosken Bombo Disco like this

Anything less than 5 runs usually means a loss in today's game. Now that the 2 Twins aces (so far this year) have lost can Gibson come through tonight? Would be nice to pull out this series and win the home stand before heading west. Seems like Rocco is doing a lot of lineup tinkering and I hope he is not being too smart by half as the old saying goes. Don't take this managing thing too seriously Rocco. Just let 'em play.

My mistake....sorry Jake, you are at the top of the list ace wise the way you have pitched the past few games. Gibson still needs to come through.

    • Aerodeliria likes this
Photo
Hosken Bombo Disco
May 14 2019 08:37 AM

This game was so annoying....even the interview. The reporterette asked Rocco, "Why did you let Berrios come out for the 6th?" HAHAHAHA....Just kidding. That would have been a rational question. Her question instead was,"How did you know it was time to take Berrios out of the game?" .

I liked her non-confrontational version of the question better. Granted, there might have been a time in the near past when “what the hell are you doing out there” would have been an honest question for the manager and front office, but not now :)
Photo
Don Walcott
May 14 2019 08:39 AM

 

Not sure where to dig up the numbers specifically on shifting, but I know the Twins are inside the top five in shifts and have allowed the 11th-lowest BABIP in baseball, .284. Last season they ranked 25th with a .302 BABIP. 

 

I'm not saying those stats make it an open and close case, there's a lot of other factors to consider about why that BABIP is so much lower, and there was quite a bit of turnover in terms of personnel, but they're doing something right. That's a pretty significant increase in balls in play they're turning into outs. But when the shift doesn't work it most definitely stands out a lot more than when it does.

Byron Buxton accounts for some of this difference.

    • Yawn Gardenhose likes this
Photo
Hosken Bombo Disco
May 14 2019 08:41 AM
I’m not scoffing at the idea of productive outs, but I’m not bothered that Kep didn’t advance the runner there. Yes, it would have been nice, sure. Twins fans have endured 25 years of “move ‘em over, get ‘em in” ... “play for a run, lose by a run” style of baseball. I like this version better!
Photo
Don Walcott
May 14 2019 08:45 AM

I don't mind bringing Rogers into a 1-run game, or a tie game for that matter. If they'd done that against Detroit they might have come out of that series with another win or two. Rogers did his job, and the Twins offense did not do theirs. Down one at home, guy on second and no outs. You have to score there.

 

I'm happy with our record and optimistic about this team. But it seems like we're losing games we should win due to some questionable managerial decisions and failing at basics. I just hope the players and manager are learning from it.

    • pbrezeasap, adjacent and Aerodeliria like this
Photo
Cap'n Piranha
May 14 2019 09:08 AM

 

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.

 

Do you remember the times not shifting has hurt us badly?The totality of the logic behind shifting is to place more defenders in areas to which each individual batter is more likely to hit the ball.Smart teams move their defenders to maximize the odds of success--that doesn't mean it can't look really bad.Just like how in blackjack smart betters double down on ten when the dealer is showing six.That doesn't mean you won't get a 2, and the dealer won't flip a five and then get a face card.

    • Danchat likes this
Photo
LA VIkes Fan
May 14 2019 09:11 AM

Do you guys really like Kepler as a lead off hitter? He's back to his old self at the plate from the last 3 years of full time play - .236/.304/.457(.761) this year, .233/.312/.421(.733) career. His OPS is up a little because of a better slugging %, not because of a better batting average and his OBP is down and actually pretty bad. He's OBP is better vs. RH pitching than LH pitching - .331 v. .216 so maybe that's why Baldelli doesn't play him or at least doesn't lead him off against LH pitching. I know a lot of people here want him to succeed, but let's face facts. He's had 1800 MLB ABs and so far he is a below average hitter for a corner OF. I know his peripherals are better and I've heard the rationalization that he "just suffers from a low BABIP". That may be true, but's it's now been true for 3 plus years of full time play. His track suggests that this may be who he is - an above average to elite defender in the corner who could besolid to better fielding CF, who doesn't really hit much for average or OBP but does have some power. He's really the strong half of a platoon.  

 

My point isn't to sit or replace Kepler, but I think batting him lead off isn't a good idea. He isn't there because he's good at it - by statistical definition he's a mediocre lead off hitter against RH pitching and a truly lousy lead off hitter against LH pitching. He also seems to press a little there and under pressure over all. Witness last night's awful AB with a man on second a no outs in the 8th down a run where he lunged at the first pitch trying to hit a home run when a ground ball to the right side was his job. Only one AB, but right now he has a .485 OPS with runners in scoring position this year (admittedly a SSS). The Twins are committed to him now, so let's develop him by putting him where he can hit with a little less pressure. We should hit Kepler 7th or 8th where he belongs. 

 

I come not to bury Kepler, but to argue that he hasn't "broken out" yet and leading him off is not helping him do that. I would lead off Garver when he plays and Polanco when Garver sits, move Gonzalez to the 2 hole when Garver isn't playing, and put Kepler at 6 ahead of Schoop at 7. Peripherals are nice but don't show a breakout. At most, they suggest that a breakout may be coming. A breakout happens when one's BA, SLG % and OPS show the breakout. Those are the stats that matter on the field. Kepler's stats don't show a breakout. There's a better chance of Kepler breaking out lower in the order IMHO.

 

Performance matters. It matters even when we want and hope a player does well. Now, I'll crawl into my bunker, fortify the door, waiting for the responses. 

    • Don Walcott likes this
Photo
Aerodeliria
May 14 2019 09:14 AM

So I guess Cruz's wrist is not so bad? If so, that's good news.

 

When is Sano expected to show his face in a Twin's uniform?...this series?

 

 


Similar Articles


by Cody Christie , Today, 12:45 PM
Photo


by Kirby O'Connor , Yesterday, 09:14 PM
Photo


by Nick Nelson , 16 Jun 2019
Photo


by Tom Froemming , 15 Jun 2019
Photo


by AJ Condon , 12 Jun 2019
Photo