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Wins versus Payroll in 2018: Fun with Numbers

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 10:21 AM
How much does it cost (in payroll) to win an extra baseball game? How much should a team expect to spend to win 85, 90, 100 games?I did a...
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2019 priorities. Literally, a group wide priority list

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 10:10 AM
Our current FO has almost, to the day, been on the job, for 2 years now. And we've seen 2 drafts, 2 off season's of work, changes on the...
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Non-Twins Off-season news, tidbits and transactions

Other Baseball Today, 09:57 AM
We had a thread for items around the baseball world that were worth sharing but not worth a thread of their own. Now that the 2018 season...
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Article: Former Teammates Take To Social Media To Honor/T...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:56 AM
When news came out that Joe Mauer was retiring and there would be a Monday morning press conference (11:00 central time), many took to so...
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Baseball America's Top Ten Twins Prospects

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 10:10 AM
Looks like Mike Berardino was again in charge of the Twins rankings for Baseball America's Top Prospects. Here are his choices for the to...
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KC 8, MIN 4: OH THE HUMANITY!!!

Trevor Hildenberger had a disaster of a game Friday night in Kansas City. He was entrusted to protect a one-run lead in the ninth, but ended up giving up four hits, including a walk-off grand slam to Salvador Perez.
Image courtesy of © Peter G. Aiken
Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Berrios: 63 Game Score, 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K, 66.0% strikes (64 of 97 pitches)
Home Runs: None
Multi-Hit Games: Grossman (3-for-5, 2B), Astudillo (3-for-4, BB), Mauer (2-for-5, 2B), Petit (2-for-3, BB)
WPA of 0.1 or higher: Grossman .181, Rogers .148, Berrios .138, Mauer .109, Astudillo .108
WPA of -0.1 or lower: Petit -.108, Polanco -.152, Austin -.171, Hildenberger -.787
Attached Image: WinChart914.png
Hildenberger retired the first man he faced in the ninth, but then a Rosell Herrera double followed by a Whit Merrifield single tied it up at 4-4. Adalberto Mondesi delivered another single, putting the game-winning run at third base with one out.

That created an opportunity for Paul Molitor to try an interesting strategy. He had Hildy intentionally walk the next batter to load the bases, then substituted in Logan Forsythe for Robbie Grossman, who had been playing left field, to give the Twins a five-man infield.

The Twins could’ve had a seven-man infield and 15 guys in the outfield and it wouldn’t have mattered. Perez worked a full count, then hit a walk-off grand slam to center field.

Based on the early goings of this game, you certainly wouldn’t have predicted that Jose Berrios would turn in a strong outing. He walked a batter and gave up a run in the first inning before walking two more batters and gave up another run in the second.

Berrios got straightened out and was outstanding for the next four frames. After the second inning, Jose did not walk another batter, only gave up three hits and struck out eight batters.

This was the first time Berrios had pitched to Willians Astudillo, not sure if that had anything to do with the sluggish start, but it certainly couldn’t have helped matters. Speaking of viral video superstar Willians Astudillo, here’s another good one:

Trevor May gave up a solo homer in the seventh to bring the Royals within a run. Kansas City came within inches of tying the game against Taylor Rogers in the eighth, but the Twins combined to make an excellent play.

Robbie Grossman fielded a double off the wall, fired in to cutoff man Jorge Polanco, who quickly relayed the ball toward home. The throw was a little up the line, but Astudillo did a great job reeling in the throw, then lunging toward the runner to tag him out just in the nick of time.

Astudillo was also 3-for-4 with a walk, the first of his Major League career.

Another day, another Joe Mauer milestone. He hit a double tonight that put him above Tony Oliva for fourth on the team’s all-time extra-base hit list. Twins Communications Director Dustin Morse gave us a look ahead at the next milestone Mauer will have his sights on:


On the topic of getting on base, the Twins did an excellent job of doing that tonight. They combined for 13 hits and drew three walks. You’ve got to come away with more than four runs when you have that much traffic on the bases.

Postgame with Molitor

Next Three Games
Sat at KC, 6:15 pm CT: Chase De Jong vs. Ian Kennedy
Sun at KC, 1:15 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Jakob Junis
Mon at DET, 6:10 pm CT: TBD

Last Three Games
KC 6, MIN 4: Coming Down is the Hardest Thing
MIN 3, NYY 1: Odorizzi Carries No-No Into 8th Inning
MIN 10, NYY 5: Joe Mauer Grand Slam Highlights Big Night for Bats

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25 Comments

The Twins need to trade for Salvy Perez so that he can stop hitting homers against them!

 

In all seriousness, though, I would be thrilled if the Twins traded for Perez. It won't happen with Castro under contract, but man would that be awesome! (especially if he hits like he always hits at Target Field ;))

    • shimrod, Einheri and mngopherguy like this

Even with the loss, it was a fun game to watch.  Willians Astudillo has quickly become my favorite player and plenty enough reason to watch this team in these final weeks.

    • Jerr, nicksaviking, mikelink45 and 2 others like this
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nicksaviking
Sep 14 2018 10:48 PM
The team seems to have a higher talent level than they are playing up to. Disappointment seems to be becoming a self fullfilling prophecy. 2019 can't come soon enough.
    • tarheeltwinsfan, Shaitan, bighat and 1 other like this
Gimmick pitchers' gimmicks only last so long.
    • ChrisKnutson, Platoon, lukeduke1980 and 2 others like this

Perez owns the Twins.In the first game the radio announcers gave us a look at how he hits against us and it is ridiculous.Now I also have to ask the Twins pitching brain trust how they left Hildenberg in to pitch to Perez.He gets one out, but then a double, a single, single, walk (intentional so we could have the player who hits the best against us come up) and then Hildy still pitches against him.We only had a one run lead, he gave that up and then melted down and with a bullpen bristling with arms he was still in.When did MLB teams come up with this strategy of never pulling a closer?When did Hildy become our closer?Baffling.

 

KC is having fun, the Twins are not.But our starter gave us quality, Astudillo made two outstanding fielding plays, got three hits and a walk.Don't give me the Gimenez leadership story - play Willans the rest of the way.

    • adorduan, bighat and Original Whizzinator like this

A closer giving up 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th in a 1-run game? That could be a record of some kind. Literally could not do worse than that. Hildy appears to be a below-average middle reliever trending downward. Put his season in the "disappointment" column along with many other Twins.

 

Astudillo is what makes this team worth watching right now. He's the type of guy the Twins need more of...just can't get enough of this guy!

    • Jerr, tarheeltwinsfan and Einheri like this
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notoriousgod71
Sep 15 2018 06:56 AM

The silver lining is that Hildenberger is pitching himself out of what I assumed would be the closer role next season if he was even reasonally competent.

    • Danchat likes this
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lukeduke1980
Sep 15 2018 07:25 AM
So Rosario, Berrios, and 23 question marks for 2019
    • mikelink45, tarheeltwinsfan, IaFan1 and 1 other like this

Aside from his self-admitted chubbiness, I'm getting a real Chris Farley vibe from Willians just in look and mannerisms as well.  

 

That ending goes in the TSF bucket.  Good Lord.  Who will be the closer next year?  Nobody currently on the Twins, for sure.

    • ashburyjohn and mikelink45 like this

I think Dick 'N' Bert said the team has 11 relievers currently on the big league roster, by my count at least 5 of these have no business being in the majors, expanded rosters or not. And as far as using an opener, DON'T!! The bullpen is far and away the worst part of a bad team, though I guess we wouldn't have to worry about them blowing a lead if they give up 4 or 5 in the 1st inning.

    • mikelink45 likes this

Astudillo is what makes this team worth watching right now. He's the type of guy the Twins need more of...just can't get enough of this guy!


Definitely fun to see Astudillo, although for me it comes with a tinge of regret too -- there was absolutely an opening to see if he could have provided this team with a spark back in May/June. (Similar story with Cave, who could/should have been up when Buxton first hit the DL way back in April.)
    • bighat and Einheri like this
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ashburyjohn
Sep 15 2018 08:49 AM

Astudillo is a BASEBALL PLAYER.

 

I didn't watch the game last night, so I missed some good stuff from Willians. In addition to the short clip shown above, have a look at this clip. https://mediadownloa...asset_1800K.mp4

Also, watch all the way through, if you want some insight into "team chemistry". Escobar used to clown around with pretending to have feuds with teammates - Astudillo and Berrios are continuing that tradition. It's not my cup of tea for interacting with others, but I can see it being a positive for our guys.

    • Jerr, jimbo92107, Einheri and 1 other like this

Eh, September baseball.

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Kelly Vance
Sep 15 2018 10:02 AM

I don't know that Hildy is a closer. We need a guy that is money

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yarnivek1972
Sep 15 2018 01:11 PM

Perez owns the Twins. In the first game the radio announcers gave us a look at how he hits against us and it is ridiculous. Now I also have to ask the Twins pitching brain trust how they left Hildenberg in to pitch to Perez. He gets one out, but then a double, a single, single, walk (intentional so we could have the player who hits the best against us come up) and then Hildy still pitches against him. We only had a one run lead, he gave that up and then melted down and with a bullpen bristling with arms he was still in. When did MLB teams come up with this strategy of never pulling a closer? When did Hildy become our closer? Baffling.

KC is having fun, the Twins are not. But our starter gave us quality, Astudillo made two outstanding fielding plays, got three hits and a walk. Don't give me the Gimenez leadership story - play Willans the rest of the way.



Hildenberger has gotten the majority of 9th inning save chances since Rodney was traded. In this particular game, what is your better alternative? Rogers and May had already been used. Most of the rest down there aren’t better.
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Carole Keller
Sep 15 2018 01:14 PM

 

Astudillo is a BASEBALL PLAYER.

 

I didn't watch the game last night, so I missed some good stuff from Willians. In addition to the short clip shown above, have a look at this clip. https://mediadownloa...asset_1800K.mp4

Also, watch all the way through, if you want some insight into "team chemistry". Escobar used to clown around with pretending to have feuds with teammates - Astudillo and Berrios are continuing that tradition. It's not my cup of tea for interacting with others, but I can see it being a positive for our guys.

I saw that clip when I watched game highlights ... I really wanted it to keep going to see what would happen next ... :)

    • ashburyjohn and tarheeltwinsfan like this

While I don't think Hildy is a non-MLB talent, I don't think he's cut out for the closer role and I'm not sure if he's good for high leverage situations. The only positive development in the bullpen thus far has been Taylor Rogers... I forsee several relievers getting added on 1 year deals this offseason with nobody else seizing any spots.

Team needs guys like Willans Astudillo. He's our Everyman baseball hero. 

    • ashburyjohn, Danchat, mikelink45 and 2 others like this
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mickeymental
Sep 15 2018 02:12 PM

 

KC is having fun, the Twins are not.

not disagreeing. just noting that a few days ago this could have been said: the twins are having fun, the yankees are not. that's baseball.

    • ashburyjohn and Original Whizzinator like this

 

Hildenberger has gotten the majority of 9th inning save chances since Rodney was traded. In this particular game, what is your better alternative? Rogers and May had already been used. Most of the rest down there aren’t better.

You misunderstand.I am fine with Hildy, but when he is not right or make that when any closer is not right, it should be okay to bring someone else in.

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yarnivek1972
Sep 15 2018 09:25 PM

You misunderstand. I am fine with Hildy, but when he is not right or make that when any closer is not right, it should be okay to bring someone else in.


Repeating, Who? Maybe Hildenberger was having a bad night. But the only reasonable choices were Reed and Belisle, who have been terrible most of the year. Oliver Drake? It’s easy to criticize, but if you don’t supply an alternative action, your criticism is empty.

Nothing against Castro personally.
But I wouldn't mind if the Twins moved him this off season and we went with Garver/Astudillo behind the plate next year.

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mngopherguy
Sep 15 2018 11:04 PM

Like I said when the Twins traded Rodney, the next closer is not in the organization.

 

Almost nightly this group of relievers are showing why the FO was grabbing every waiver guy they could.Hidly is a 7th inning reliever, not a closer in a one run game. 

    • ashburyjohn likes this

 

Repeating, Who? Maybe Hildenberger was having a bad night. But the only reasonable choices were Reed and Belisle, who have been terrible most of the year. Oliver Drake? It’s easy to criticize, but if you don’t supply an alternative action, your criticism is empty.

Well we will not agree on this, but I would have used any of the three you listed and anyone else not asleep in the BP.I do not leave a ninth inning reliever in because when his is good he is better than the others.Because if he is not good the game is lost.

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ashburyjohn
Sep 16 2018 07:58 AM

Well we will not agree on this, but I would have used any of the three you listed and anyone else not asleep in the BP.I do not leave a ninth inning reliever in because when his is good he is better than the others.Because if he is not good the game is lost.

Recognizing that players are not the same as their stats on the back of their baseball card, and they have good games and bad games, is a step up.

 

But I think it's also true with pitchers that they don't necessarily/always have their best stuff when they face their first batter or two or three... think of the many solid starters who have a reputation for "you'd better get him early". Similarly you sometimes watch a reliever struggle for a batter or two, and then find himself. Of course most relievers don't have the luxury of getting a full inning to get squared away. But it's still as much an art as a science.

 

I'm not a Hildenberger apologist by any means, nor a big fan of the Closer role. But I don't think it's automatically a black mark against the dugout braintrust to leave him in, if they feel he's starting to find his feel for pitches. Of course, they can be wrong - it's a competition between batter and pitcher.


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