Just How Good is Blake Treinen, and Should the Twins Sign Him?
Dec 04 2019 03:00 PM |
Cooper Carlson
in Minnesota Twins
Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
If you were like me when you saw Blake Treinen was non-tendered, you probably thought back to his 2018 season when he finished sixth in Cy Young voting and 15th for MVP. He was the most dominant reliever in baseball and it looked like the Athletics had a star for years to come.During that dominant 2018 season Treinen had a 0.78 ERA (19 ERA-), 1.82 FIP (44 FIP-), 31.8 K/%, 6.7 BB%, 0.83 WHIP, 3.6 fWAR, and .187 wOBA against. This year was a complete outlier with every year since his 2014 debut finishing with a FIP above 3.00 or higher. He had always been a solid reliever, but some regression was expected after his 2018 season.
The regression hit him hard and he had his worst season in the majors in 2019. He pitched 58 2/3 total innings and produced a 4.91 ERA (110 ERA-), 5.14 FIP (115 FIP-), 22.2 K%, 13.9 BB%, 1.62 WHIP, -0.3 fWAR, and .336 wOBA against. So basically if you take the middle ground of his last two seasons you get nearly his exact career average in ERA, FIP, and WHIP.
This tweet alone from the creator of BaseballSavant shows the extreme difference a year made for Treinen.
He is now a free agent after being non-tendered by Oakland while being just a year away from one of the greatest seasons for a reliever ever. The 2018 version is not the one that will be signed, but I also don’t think the 2019 version is who you will be getting. Whoever signs him will likely get the guy in the middle of both of those seasons. Steamer projections have him at a 3.86 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 1.33 WHIP.
Oakland let him go for a reason. Maybe that reason is they just hate spending money, but they probably realize they are not getting the guy from 2018 because relievers are weird. He was due for $7.5 mi which would have been the fourth-highest salary on their team.
The immediate reaction from Twins fans suggested a lot of people would love to sign him on what I estimate will be a two-year deal for around $15 million. It could be a good idea with a solid back half of the bullpen with Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May. They wouldn't be relying on Treinen to be the lights out closer, but the upside is there and if he flops it doesn't destroy the bullpen.
What do you think? Should the Twins take a chance on Treinen, or roll with their interior options that project to be just as good? Leave a comment and discuss.
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17 Comments
No, I don’t believe so. The possibility exists that Treinen May be cooked. It’s baseball, those things happen. But given His track record and ability, he’s worth at least a look.
I'm also starting to have second thoughts about Perez. I wonder about a 1yr at $4-5M and convince him it's time to re-invent himself as a RP.
What is to lose?Sign those arms - all of them you can.
Not wild about him, but since I doubt they're going to sign any starters they might as well try to load the bullpen up as much as possible.
I'm in the sign him up camp. I'd go maybe 2/12 on an option.
People say two years and $15. So why didn't the A's sign him. Use him as a flippable themselves. The other interesting fact: the A's were offering him to any team willing to take the aribtration salary, and also give the A's something in return. That, in itself, is a warning sign.
2018 was the outlier. No thanks.
I would be interested but probably not at those numbers.
I would sign him and give Perez yet another shot. Perez was basically a stud for two months. There must have been a reason for his success. Something changed somewhere along the line. I don't think it was a burning out and I don't think it was related to the law of averages catching up. Something was definitely different at a specific point in time. He throws 95-97 mph, doesn't he?
I would sign him to a contract with multiple incentives, and give him the opportunity to make good money, and bet on himself.
Treinen was used over 80 innings in 2018. Not many relievers have good seasons the following year. Justin Wilson in a similar career arc got a 2/10 deal. It would be fair to say that Trienen is no Wilson in terms of talent, so it would be fair to say 10 million would be a steal for him, Otovino numbers would be more the high end at 9 million a year. 7.5 million or so does not seam unreasonable yet since seasons end Oakland couldn't even trade him for .195 A ball hitter. There is something wrong here that bears some watching. I am not recalling an Oakland player that was very good being let go for nothing.
The A's are notoriously thrifty when it comes to player salaries, but I think the Treinen move had more to do with performance issues, which as others have noted is a red flag. But if he's capable of pitching remotely like he did in 2018 it would obviously be a good pickup for the Twins.
Perez picked up a cutter in the offseason that the league had no scouting report on. He had about 12 starts before word got around and then things got ugly. He throws it off the plate every time and basically teams caught on and just took the pitch everytime he threw it. Once they were 2-0 or 3-0, he'd throw them a cookie and it would get destroyed. His cutter was his only pitch that had a positive pVal, that 95-97 mph fastball had a -16.4 pVal. He's a smoke and mirrors pitcher who gives up too many homers and walks too many guys. Let him fill innings for a tanking team.
Trienen had injury issues for most of 2019 as I understand. Even if healthy he's not as good as his 2018, but it's easy to see the raw stuff is there. It really wouldn't hurt to sign a guy or two like this with so many younger guys in the bullpen as it stands now. He wouldn't have to close or even set up and it'd be a nice opportunity to rebound for him and a low risk high reward situation for us.
Depends on the price I suppose. 2/15 may be a little steep, unless it were to be back loaded a bit on the second year. I say he'd be a upgrade from the likes of Harper, albeit at a much bigger price tag.
Having said all that, I think he's a good bounce back candidate. 2014-2017 he was a decent reliever even without his 2 extreme outliers of 2018 and 2019. ERA was 3.21, FIP 3.43 in those four seasons.
Health is the issue. The team that knows his health the best essentially released him. That should be the big red flag. Bouncing back this year from shoulder and back issues may not be that easy