Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

The 5 Rule Draft

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 11:24 PM
This year's Rule 5 draft we lost Akil Baddo and Tyler Wells. So I thought I'd check to see how they were doing. 1st I checked on Baddo, h...
Full topic ›

Why isn't Buxton on MLB OPS leaders list?

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:55 PM
Buxton is listed only on the MLB HR leaders list. Not on OPS or AVG or SLG or OBP. He should be the leader in several of these. He has as...
Full topic ›

2021 Regular Season Game Threads

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 08:40 PM
Welcome to the 2021 edition of Twins' Baseball. Twins Daily plans to have a game thread during the regular season for every game (one thr...
Full topic ›

Morneau

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 06:58 PM
I thought he was was really good last year. Maybe I'm on an opening day high (Not high) but he is so good.Who would have thought he would...
Full topic ›

Fun with Numbers 2021

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 06:27 PM
Nelson Cruz is on pace to hit over 150 home runs if he gets 500 at bats.   Josh Donaldson slash line:1.000/1.000/2.000/3.000
Full topic ›

How Long Can the Twins Keep Their Window of Opportunity Open?

Opportunities don’t last forever and in the baseball world success can turn to also-ran status overnight. Minnesota has won back-to-back division titles, but how long can the organization keep open its window of opportunity?
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota’s Front Office Philosophy
Thad Levine and Derek Falvey were brought together in Minnesota four winters ago. In that time, the front office has been able to rebuild an organization that had lost 92+ games in five of the previous six seasons. They have been shrewd to hang on to their top prospects with Brusdar Graterol’s trade being the lone exception and the Twins are likely happy with their return in that deal.

Having one of baseball’s best farm systems is a key to sustainable contention. Minnesota’s current crop of regulars was moving through the farm system back in 2015-16, which saw them ranked as one of MLB’s top-five farm systems. Since the new front office took over, the Twins have moved back into the top 10 with prospects like Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Jhoan Duran ready to make a big-league impact. Even with those players getting close, other key pieces like Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios can reach free agency in the coming years so it becomes a roster balancing act.

Entering the 2019 season, Thad Levine was asked about signing one of the big free agent options (Bryce Harper and Manny Machado), but he felt those moves are for teams trying to put their “foot down” and not “trying to wrench a window of opportunity open.” Last winter, the window was open, and the Twins spent big money on Josh Donaldson. Now the Twins can look to the not-so-distant past for a glimpse into their own future.

Kansas City’s Approach
Kansas City is a lower revenue team, and in recent memory they saw their window open and jumped at the opportunity. KC’s front office used a slash and burn approaching by trading away pieces from one of baseball’s top farm systems. The results are hard to argue with as Kansas City won back-to-back AL pennants along with taking home the 2015 World Series crown. As the old adage goes, flags fly forever, but what are the long-term costs?

Looking back on those seasons, Kansas City wasn’t sure how long their window would be open. “You owe it to your fans and your city,” said Royals General Manager Dayton Moore. “You owe it to your ownership and all the people who’ve worked so hard to get your franchise to a certain point.” He capitalized at the right time, but things haven’t gone as smooth in recent years.

Since their title run, Kansas City has yet to post a .500 record and things aren’t exactly looking bright for 2021. Their farm system ranks in the middle of the pack with some top tier talent, but they are still trying to rebuild after trading away pieces for their title run. Would Twins fans want the front office to follow a similar approach and go all-in for one or two seasons of success?

Baseball’s Harshly Cyclical Nature
Kansas City isn’t the only team to see their window close after multiple winning seasons but not all teams end up walking away with a title. Detroit won the AL Central for four consecutive seasons from 2011-14 and they made World Series runs in 2006 and 2012.

During that time, they handed out big contracts and traded away top prospects to keep their window open. The team was trying to end a title drought that stretches back further than the Twins (1984). Recently, Detroit has struggled to be relevant again as they have posted sub-.400 winning percentages for four consecutive seasons.

"At some point, some teams get into an all-win-now mode because they're right there," Tigers general manager Al Avila said. "It's very hard to get into the playoffs. It's very hard to get into the World Series, much more even to win it. When you feel you have that chance, you've got to go for it."

Toronto made back-to-back ALCS runs in 2015-16 with sluggers like Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion anchoring their line-up. The Blue Jays added veterans like David Price and Troy Tulowitzki to try and get them over the hump, but they never made it to the Fall Classic. Since then, they have lost 86+ games for three straight seasons before finishing above .500 in 2020.

Forbes baseball writer Maury Brown believes MLB expects windows to be open for roughly five years. Low revenue clubs can expect to be a little shorter and higher revenue clubs can expect to be a little longer. Multiple prospects need to hit at the same time and the organization needs to make appropriate supplemental moves, but he feels confident the league likes to tout five years as a bit of a “standard.” Minnesota’s revenue is considered in the middle to lower end of baseball, so the time might be now for the Twins to act.

The Twins window is clearly open, but it might close faster than fans would like.

How long do you think Minnesota’s window will stay open? Should the team go all-in? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

  • mikelink45, DocBauer, dbminn and 1 other like this

  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

57 Comments

This is a fun exercise, but no one knows how to really stay on top forever - except the Yankees who were there all of the 50's and then spent some of Steinbrenner's cash.But overall throwing money around does not guarantee anything either - what has Harper meant to the Phillies?Mike Trout is the best in baseball according to the experts - but he can't even get to the playoffs with Pujols and Rendon as teammates.  

 

Darvish signed with the Cubs and then failed, will he fail or win with the Padres?  

 

Pitchers arms fail, concussions ruin careers, players like Herb Score seem destined for the HOF until their is a line drive. 

 

Plan well, but baseball is a game of failures as the cliche goes about success being able to get three hits out of ten and become a star - a 70% failure rate.  

 

I went to the Twins yearly record.Going backward the Twins have been 1st/second 5 of the last 6 years.The exception was 5th (last place). 

 

2011 - 2014 we were 4th or fifth - this ten year period from 2011 to 2020 we were top two 5 times, bottom two 5 times.Fits the projections.

 

2006 - 2010 we were 1st three times, 2cd once, and 3rd once.

2001 - 2005 1st three times, 2cd once, 3rd once.That ten year period defies the odds and perhaps should allow more credit to an earlier regime.6 first, 2 seconds, 2 thirds!

 

1996 - 2000 we were in the doldrums 2 fifth and 3 4th  

1991 - 1996 we were last twice and 4th once the last three years of this stretch - adding to the next five years with 4 times in last and 4 times in 4th which must balance out with the exceptional years of 2001 - 2010.The beginning of this period saw us win the world series and come in second.

 

So to recap these thirty years - one world series - nine times 1st, six times 2cd, twice 3rd, 5 times 4th, and 8 times 5th. Nice symmetry in those numbers. 

 

Then it gets more confusing because there are more teams in a division and fewer teams in the playoffs, but three decades is an interesting view.I will add that we only finished 1st in the years from 1961 - 1990 four times. Too bad there were no extra divisions in a few of those years. 

Photo
terrydactyls1947
Feb 23 2021 10:02 PM
I see no reason why the starting lineup listed below can't remain in contention for a long time. 2023 1B Roller 2B Arraez SS Camaro 3B Miranda LF Kirilloff CF Celestial RF Larnach DH Santo SP Duran SP Balazovich SP Winder SP Sands SP Canterino RP Duffy RP Rogers RP I ran out of thoughts. Good night.
Cody, this was a great OP and very relevant! I liked and agreed with just about everything with the exception of 2 items.

1] I found the Twins window being clearly open but perhaps closing fast inaccurate. More on that in a moment.

2] Probably should have included Cleveland in your examples. If ever there was a team that had a shot and short changed themselves, they would be it.

You all know I'm opinionated and long-winded, LOL, but Cody's OP strikes at my Twins heart. So I'm going to TRY to be direct and not be TOO long winded.

I live in Royals country here in Omaha. I totally appreciate the 2 teams that went all in and won one. What a thrill for their fans! But they went decades between championship teams. And now they are re-building yet again.

As fantastic as the Dogers have been the last several years, all of their regular seasons and playoff appearances, and their $200M payroll, they still never won the WS until last year. With all their talent and $, do you realize they hadn't won the WS since 1988? And they had to beat the "upstart" and frugal Rays to do it.

I am not dismissing anyone's opinion, but what would you rather have? A team that at least contends year to year and provides hope and opportunity to win? Or a team that blows up payroll and trades off talent for that one big season? There is no wrong answer.

But for me, I want contention yearly. And that's what this FO has been talking about since DAY ONE. For those who want instant gratification...so to speak since its been a while since we won the BIG ONE just like the Dogers...it doesn't happen easily. The best chance you have is to compete yearly.

So, bullet points:

1] Surprise! We've been winning!

2] The FO has done exactly what I hoped they would do for 2021. I prefer a long view of things, no matter how emotionally attached I am to the Twins. They filled holes and kept their eye on the prize with solid, smart additions without going nuts. A good, contending team with flexibility without signing long term deals or trading anyone away after a missed 2020 milb season.

3] While a few of us are old enough to remember the 80's and the number of pitching prospects we had then that NEVER turned out, we are 30+yrs removed from those days to realize this current crop is very different. And the FO and coaching changes are also very different. In all my years, I have NEVER been more excited and pleased about what I am seeing coming up! There's a reason, beyond the next CBA, the Twins have been looking at 1yr deals. They know what is coming up and they have the $ to bring someone back if they want.

4] Berrios has been treated well. There have been discussions about an extension. There is no animosity. This could be important for many reasons. We have a great number of arms ready or nearly ready. No reason why he can't be part of a great rotation for the next few years. The possibilities are endless right now.

5] Not only are there pitching options, there are position players and positional depth options and versatility to complete the roster. EXAMPLE: Sano at 1B, and a rotation of AK, Larnach, Kepler, Rooker and Sano at 1B, OF and DH.

The window, IMO, is very much wide open right now! And it could be for 3-5 years plus if they just keep playing the smart card
    • Dman and Major League Ready like this
Photo
Dodecahedron
Feb 24 2021 08:50 AM

 

Maybe the 4.00 ERA yobs were better than you think because of the PED era inflated offensive numbers? 

 

I also talked about how those teams had great set-up men and a great closer. Rincon and Romero, who I consider the best of those set-up men, were both using PEDs. PEDs helped pitchers too.

Photo
Channing1964
Feb 24 2021 07:55 PM

Are you referring to the trades that helped build the farm system rankings that this post is partially touting?

i am referring to the fact that i did not agree with the trade of Escobar, Lynn, or the way they treated Molitor and Santana. To see the look on Molitor's face as he learned of the trade of Escobar made me cry. He had already turned in the lineup card for that nights game at Fenway. Every administration has its good and bad points. I am not attacking the Falvines. I just do not agree unequivocally with every thing they do. Nor do I think they walk on water like the omnipotent one. Hopefully they learned some lessons that year about how we treat our own.
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 24 2021 07:56 PM
I was doing fine without revisiting that.

 

i am referring to the fact that i did not agree with the trade of Escobar, Lynn, or the way they treated Molitor and Santana. To see the look on Molitor's face as he learned of the trade of Escobar made me cry. He had already turned in the lineup card for that nights game at Fenway. Every administration has its good and bad points. I am not attacking the Falvines. I just do not agree unequivocally with every thing they do. Nor do I think they walk on water like the omnipotent one. Hopefully they learned some lessons that year about how we treat our own.

It's really bizarre that a human being can be traded. No way I'd take a job with that requirement. I love the human side of the game too, so I appreciate this comment, even if I still think the right "business move" was trading those players.

 

Okay, not Lynn. He seemed more like he treated the Twins that way, imho.

    • Channing1964 likes this
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 25 2021 06:33 AM

It's really bizarre that a human being can be traded. No way I'd take a job with that requirement. I love the human side of the game too, so I appreciate this comment, even if I still think the right "business move" was trading those players.
 
Okay, not Lynn. He seemed more like he treated the Twins that way, imho.

it's kind of weird about why i liked Lynn as a Twin. One thing about hom that i knew before we got him is that, being an ex Cardinal we knew he knew how to win ball games. He signed late and if i remember right maybe only got a week or two os Spring Training. Without looking up the stats i am pretty sure his overall numbers were pretty in line with his career numbers by the trading deadline. I think we got maybe Austin from the Yankees for him. He was pitching Super when we traded him. Guarantee we will see plenty of him now that hes on the Sox. I wasnt mad they traded him. 2018 made me as mad as a hornet all year because of the Sano fiasco, Buxton's fluke injuries, the whole Ervin Santana thing and the fact that we gave up with 70 games to go and if i recall only like 7 back. This was only a year after a torrid August and September got us a wild card. The Falvines traded our closer that year too and some other questionable moves (jaime garcia). It just felt like the front office wanted the team to fail so they could put their "stamp" on a total rebuild. Well there are plenty of guys still around from before their tenure. To sit there and say trading Es obar was smart is a matter of opinion. I haven't seen any of those guys in the bigs yet. Maybe Alcala is one. I am not sure. The Pressly trade was not a genius stroke, nor was Dozier's. Im not crying about any one thing. 2018 was a fiasco on every organizational front. I am not going to say the Falvine mission is a failure at all. All I am saying is that they are doing okay for their first times and they make smart moves usually. I am not buying the fact that they are the best ever like the administration of this website would have us believe.
Photo
Major League Ready
Feb 25 2021 09:43 AM

 

i am referring to the fact that i did not agree with the trade of Escobar, Lynn, or the way they treated Molitor and Santana. To see the look on Molitor's face as he learned of the trade of Escobar made me cry. He had already turned in the lineup card for that nights game at Fenway. Every administration has its good and bad points. I am not attacking the Falvines. I just do not agree unequivocally with every thing they do. Nor do I think they walk on water like the omnipotent one. Hopefully they learned some lessons that year about how we treat our own.

 

I think you give up your right to criticize the team’s effort to improve if you are unwilling to trade pending free agents at the deadline when the team is not a contender. This is anything but “boneheaded”. Do you really look around the league at the deadline and wonder why all these bonehead teams are stupid enough to trade away pending free agents? Literally ever GM in the league makes these trades. The Yankees traded away Chapman. Do you think Yankee fans think that move was boneheaded now?

 

The relative value of trading of Escobar is still to be seen. If Duran ends up being an average BP guy it’s a modest win. It’s a big win if he becomes a high leverage RP. In the event he reaches something close to his ceiling, this is the kind of move that dramatically improves a team. This is exactly the type of move that opens or extends a window. The extremely shortsighted approach you advocate is a really good way to ensure mitigating relative success over the long-term. Escobar and Lynn were not going to get that team to the playoffs. At best the net result would have been a couple extra wins.

 

It's possible Duran / Maciel / Alcala and Celestino all falme out. However, I think it’s fair to believe those trades will very likely have significant benefit over the course of 6-7 years. To forego that possibility for a couple regular season wins would be absolute incompetence so I really don’t understand labeling it “boneheaded”.

    • Channing1964 likes this

 

 

 

They should've gotten something for Rosario, sadly. Losing him because of arbitration is a somewhat loss, but you do have replacements that need to play in Rooker and Kirilloff. The Twins have also signed temporary emergency stopgaps if need be.

 

How could they have gotten something for Rosario? They offered him for free on waivers, and not one team bit. If you won't take him for free, why would you offer anything in trade? I think it's fair to assume the Twins offered him in trade before they cut him loose.  

 

The only way they could have gotten something in trade is if they offered him earlier, I suppose. But when? During the pennant race? He might have been a useful piece to a contender -- but that's what we were! We needed him too!

 

So maybe a year earlier? He was coming off a leg injury, and given his lack of walks and suppressed defense, I doubt he would have brought much in return, at least not till he showed his fielding could rebound, which it never did.

 

More than a year ago? I don't know. I was enjoying his contributions right up till the end. I don't mind replacing him with someone cheaper, if the replacement has higher upside, like Kiriloff. And with Rooker and Larnach in reserve, I think it's an acceptable risk for a contending team to cast off their long-time starter, but only because they are confident there won't be a huge drop-off. 

 

I can't say they handled this wrong at any stage.

 

I will miss Rosario a lot -- his timely homers and dazzling throws to third and home seemed to give the team a real jolt. He could single-handedly take over a game. But his poor plate discipline and reduced fielding skills meant we had a good chance for more production at lower cost. And having invested several recent first round picks at his position, it was to let them give it a shot.

 

But I will be rooting for him to hit 30+ homers, keep throwing out everyone except Twins, and for his legs to return to the days he was a plus fielder. I loved his passion and timely hitting, and I will miss seeing him come to the plate. I won't miss his boneheaded base-running blunders, but maybe they will seem a lot funnier now that they will be happening with the Tigers.

    • ashbury, flpmagikat, DocBauer and 1 other like this

but maybe they will seem a lot funnier now that they will be happening with the Tigers.

Cleveland. But otherwise I share your view.
 

Photo
Channing1964
Feb 25 2021 11:38 PM

I think you give up your right to criticize the team’s effort to improve if you are unwilling to trade pending free agents at the deadline when the team is not a contender. This is anything but “boneheaded”. Do you really look around the league at the deadline and wonder why all these bonehead teams are stupid enough to trade away pending free agents? Literally ever GM in the league makes these trades. The Yankees traded away Chapman. Do you think Yankee fans think that move was boneheaded now?
 
The relative value of trading of Escobar is still to be seen. If Duran ends up being an average BP guy it’s a modest win. It’s a big win if he becomes a high leverage RP. In the event he reaches something close to his ceiling, this is the kind of move that dramatically improves a team. This is exactly the type of move that opens or extends a window. The extremely shortsighted approach you advocate is a really good way to ensure mitigating relative success over the long-term. Escobar and Lynn were not going to get that team to the playoffs. At best the net result would have been a couple extra wins.
 
It's possible Duran / Maciel / Alcala and Celestino all falme out. However, I think it’s fair to believe those trades will very likely have significant benefit over the course of 6-7 years. To forego that possibility for a couple regular season wins would be absolute incompetence so I really don’t understand labeling it “boneheaded”.

Actually you are correct. I would not say my views on that subject are farsighted at all. They are absolutely shortsighted for sure. I happpen to have an old friend who was so excited for that 2018 season that he scraped and scrimped to be able to afford a season ticket package at Target Field. Can you imagine his dismay to realize the last 60-65 games of that season were deemed unimportant to the fans by the front office. Sometimes people have other reasons to be upset at their team or their team's front office decisions. I do get your point clearly. If i had the motivation to become the next junior general manager i would look at in a different light. I am only reminiscing about that fiasco of the 2018 season before i declare Derek Falvey the greatest team executive in Twins history
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 25 2021 11:56 PM

How could they have gotten something for Rosario? They offered him for free on waivers, and not one team bit. If you won't take him for free, why would you offer anything in trade? I think it's fair to assume the Twins offered him in trade before they cut him loose.  
 
The only way they could have gotten something in trade is if they offered him earlier, I suppose. But when? During the pennant race? He might have been a useful piece to a contender -- but that's what we were! We needed him too!
 
So maybe a year earlier? He was coming off a leg injury, and given his lack of walks and suppressed defense, I doubt he would have brought much in return, at least not till he showed his fielding could rebound, which it never did.
 
More than a year ago? I don't know. I was enjoying his contributions right up till the end. I don't mind replacing him with someone cheaper, if the replacement has higher upside, like Kiriloff. And with Rooker and Larnach in reserve, I think it's an acceptable risk for a contending team to cast off their long-time starter, but only because they are confident there won't be a huge drop-off. 
 
I can't say they handled this wrong at any stage.
 
I will miss Rosario a lot -- his timely homers and dazzling throws to third and home seemed to give the team a real jolt. He could single-handedly take over a game. But his poor plate discipline and reduced fielding skills meant we had a good chance for more production at lower cost. And having invested several recent first round picks at his position, it was to let them give it a shot.
 
But I will be rooting for him to hit 30+ homers, keep throwing out everyone except Twins, and for his legs to return to the days he was a plus fielder. I loved his passion and timely hitting, and I will miss seeing him come to the plate. I won't miss his boneheaded base-running blunders, but maybe they will s eem a lot funnier now that the y will be happening with the Tigers.

Of course...nice take. Some of us loved Rosario more than others, i just think that 8-10 mil to keep him around for one more year wasn't going to ruin the budget. With the tiny sample size ive seen of Rooker and Kiriloff im not convinced either one will make us forget Rosario. IMHO they should have let Cave go and kept Kiriloff and or Rooker on the 25 man in a role like Cave's. If Buxton goes down, and he will, we all know Kepler will be in center anyways. To just jettison Rosario like that was b.s. I hope karma doesnt come back to haunt the dynamic duo on that one.
Photo
Major League Ready
Feb 26 2021 08:22 AM

 

Of course...nice take. Some of us loved Rosario more than others, i just think that 8-10 mil to keep him around for one more year wasn't going to ruin the budget. With the tiny sample size ive seen of Rooker and Kiriloff im not convinced either one will make us forget Rosario. IMHO they should have let Cave go and kept Kiriloff and or Rooker on the 25 man in a role like Cave's. If Buxton goes down, and he will, we all know Kepler will be in center anyways. To just jettison Rosario like that was b.s. I hope karma doesnt come back to haunt the dynamic duo on that one.

 

The reason you and many other fans find themselves at odds with the front office is that your evaluation is from a micro perspective. The front office takes a more macro approach. Your approach is that they COULD spend $10M on Rosario if the elected to do so. Their approach is that $10M spent on Rooker or Cave + Simmons is a considerably better roster. Again, they are also looking past this year. How do you get better if you don’t develop players at the ML level?

 

I also have a different fan perspective. Rosario was definitely one of my favorite Twins. Now, I don’t care to watch the high percentage of absolutely horrible ABs and mistakes in the field. I would rather watch one of the young guys develop into a player we can enjoy for several years.

 

Bottom line is that fans with a macro view or a decidedly short-term focus are always going to be at odds with the front office. It’s not their fault for acting in the best interest of the team.

    • Channing1964 likes this
Photo
Major League Ready
Feb 26 2021 08:36 AM

 

Actually you are correct. I would not say my views on that subject are farsighted at all. They are absolutely shortsighted for sure. I happpen to have an old friend who was so excited for that 2018 season that he scraped and scrimped to be able to afford a season ticket package at Target Field. Can you imagine his dismay to realize the last 60-65 games of that season were deemed unimportant to the fans by the front office. Sometimes people have other reasons to be upset at their team or their team's front office decisions. I do get your point clearly. If i had the motivation to become the next junior general manager i would look at in a different light. I am only reminiscing about that fiasco of the 2018 season before i declare Derek Falvey the greatest team executive in Twins history

 

Try looking at it from a slightly different angle. The 2018 team was not going to be a contender with or without any of the players that were traded. By trading them there is a very good chance a player or players received in the trade will provide a great fan experience for all of us for 6+ years. What if Duran turns into a front of the rotation starter? How much fun would that be for 6+ years? We can also look at it knowing these additions could elevate the team and contribute to a playoff run. Might all go to crap but acquiring these players has a much better chance of producing winning baseball than keeping those free agents on until the end of 2018.

    • Channing1964 likes this
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 26 2021 09:42 PM

Try looking at it from a slightly different angle. The 2018 team was not going to be a contender with or without any of the players that were traded. By trading them there is a very good chance a player or players received in the trade will provide a great fan experience for all of us for 6+ years. What if Duran turns into a front of the rotation starter? How much fun would that be for 6+ years? We can also look at it knowing these additions could elevate the team and contribute to a playoff run. Might all go to crap but acquiring these players has a much better chance of producing winning baseball than keeping those free agents on until the end of 2018.

sure, of course you are right. Im really not trying to dwell on 2018...i am glad its over. I just think its not a bad idea to have a voice of reason to realize that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don't walk on water. Sometimes the way they treat people really bothers me. Whats wrong with publicly saying that a player like Rosario, who has spent his whole career in Minnesota, just isnt in the plan anymore? I know why they did it, I know how they did it, I just wish they could have done it maybe a little "classier" It leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I dont feel like thats what we should be all about. I mean if your team doesn't represent the values and traditions of the community then what does it represent? We could just as well be Marlin fans or Mariner fans. I think our FO is doing a very nice job. I reserve the right to hold them to the same standards i held every Twins management team all my life. If you want winners to play for you, then you have to be a winner in how you treat the players, the fans, the media, and yourself.
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 26 2021 10:22 PM

The reason you and many other fans find themselves at odds with the front office is that your evaluation is from a micro perspective. The front office takes a more macro approach. Your approach is that they COULD spend $10M on Rosario if the elected to do so. Their approach is that $10M spent on Rooker or Cave + Simmons is a considerably better roster. Again, they are also looking past this year. How do you get better if you don’t develop players at the ML level?
 
I also have a different fan perspective. Rosario was definitely one of my favorite Twins. Now, I don’t care to watch the high percentage of absolutely horrible ABs and mistakes in the field. I would rather watch one of the young guys develop into a player we can enjoy for several years.
 
Bottom line is that fans with a macro view or a decidedly short-term focus are always going to be at odds with the front office. It’s not their fault for acting in the best interest of the team.

we all have our favorite players. I am not going to apologize for the fact that Rosario happens to be one of mine. To sit there and say theoney spent on Simmons made Risario unaffordable is a joke right? Without all the payroll numbers in front of me I would be willing to bet the payroll is at least 10 million under the projected 140 million dollar payroll that we are all led to believe. What's done is done. Why are we arguing anout Rosario any more? A lot of you got what you wanted when they non tendered him. He isnt coming back(except for the 19 times a year he torments Wes Johnson
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 26 2021 10:25 PM
one playoff game that we lost with Kiriloff in a different position is not going to make anyone forget Eddie Rosario. This is a gamble what they are doing... I hope i dont have to say I told you so
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 26 2021 10:35 PM

The reason you and many other fans find themselves at odds with the front office is that your evaluation is from a micro perspective. The front office takes a more macro approach. Your approach is that they COULD spend $10M on Rosario if the elected to do so. Their approach is that $10M spent on Rooker or Cave + Simmons is a considerably better roster. Again, they are also looking past this year. How do you get better if you don’t develop players at the ML level?
 
I also have a different fan perspective. Rosario was definitely one of my favorite Twins. Now, I don’t care to watch the high percentage of absolutely horrible ABs and mistakes in the field. I would rather watch one of the young guys develop into a player we can enjoy for several years.
 
Bottom line is that fans with a macro view or a decidedly short-term focus are always going to be at odds with the front office. It’s not their fault for acting in the best interest of the team.

Again I am sure Mr. Pohlads opinion of the front office is mostly positive...I just think as Minnesotans, and fans of the team we have a right to scrutinize every decision they make. I am not calling for their dismissal, only objectively evaluating some of their moves. For example, I love Josh Donaldson as a player and as a man, but i would never have given him a 4 year deal at this stage of his career. I suppose we could argue about that too but IMHO that was stupid. So when you wanna take that big step and be the big men on campus you better hire some more p.r. people to cover your butts. This aint New York, Boston, LA, Or Chicago but believe me, plenty of us are watching. Closely.
Photo
Major League Ready
Feb 27 2021 08:36 AM

 

we all have our favorite players. I am not going to apologize for the fact that Rosario happens to be one of mine. To sit there and say theoney spent on Simmons made Risario unaffordable is a joke right? Without all the payroll numbers in front of me I would be willing to bet the payroll is at least 10 million under the projected 140 million dollar payroll that we are all led to believe. What's done is done. Why are we arguing anout Rosario any more? A lot of you got what you wanted when they non tendered him. He isnt coming back(except for the 19 times a year he torments Wes Johnson

 

Here is the problem. Who projected $140M? I did not see any such projection from the Twins. The $140M projection was a wish and the number was pulled out of the air. Some fans hoped the team would spend the equivalent to the record high payroll set last year. Is this reasonable?

 

Well, what is the basis of any budget? Revenue, right? I think it’s fair to say any young man/woman coming out of college with a business degree knows this to be true. Is there any chance revenue will be unaffected by the pandemic? Is that even remotely reasonable. Of course not. Best case scenario IMO is a $30M with a most likely case scenario of $40-50M. We can quibble over the exact number but the impact is going to be significant. Therefore, the problem is not the FO if you expect spending to be unaffected.

 

I don’t object to strongly to these really poorly formed positions until posters insist the actions are “a joke” initiated by “boneheads”. The problem is not what Falvey does not understand. The problem is what fans often don’t understand about the decision making process and responsibilities of the FO. Go ahead ... watch closely. Just don't assume the people qualified to make these decisions are idiots especially if you don't have the financial acumen to understand spending should not remain the same when a revenue reduction is certain.

    • Channing1964 likes this
Well, what is the basis of any budget? Revenue, right?

Sure, it's a basis, but not the final word. The high-end company my daughter works for has made it plain that in this difficult economy, they are not only not laying off anyone, but they are selectively hiring aggressively, on the theory of picking off plum employees from competitors who are focusing on their current bottom line. The strategy worked great for them during the 2007-2011 downturn. (Past performance is no guarantee of future results... :) )

 

The point is not to specifically defend a $140M payroll, but to suggest that it wouldn't be crazy for a team to decide this is the year to be contrarian and invest in some way.
 

    • wsnydes likes this
Photo
Major League Ready
Feb 27 2021 10:49 AM

 

Sure, it's a basis, but not the final word. The high-end company my daughter works for has made it plain that in this difficult economy, they are not only not laying off anyone, but they are selectively hiring aggressively, on the theory of picking off plum employees from competitors who are focusing on their current bottom line. The strategy worked great for them during the 2007-2011 downturn. (Past performance is no guarantee of future results... :) )

 

The point is not to specifically defend a $140M payroll, but to suggest that it wouldn't be crazy for a team to decide this is the year to be contrarian and invest in some way.
 

 

I have stated in the past that one potential approach would be to take it in the shorts this year. Take a 3 year approach that would require more measured spending over the next 2-3 years. This approach takes advantage of a buyers market so I don't disagree in principal. However, that's not what happened here and its not the point. Many absolutely plucked a number out of the air or just hoped they would return to a record level of payroll. As I said, I don't mind the blindly optimistic approach until someone suggests it's boneheaded, joke, etc.

 

Revenue grew for some companies as a result of the pandemic. The fact that your daughters company did not lay-off anyone is anecdotal. It may or may not be relevant. However, the premise that spending follows revenue is about as basic as it gets.

 

We also need to look beyond this year to evaluate this off-season. The team really needed to make room given the number of quality corner OFers ready to contribute. This was also the year to transition Lewis and a couple of SPs. Establishing these players puts us in a very strong position. It's impossible to evaluate this off-season properly without mapping next season. Not with absolute specifics but in concept. In other words, assuming one of the OF prospects transitions. One of the SPs are promoted. What does it look like with or without Lewis taking over at SS, etc.

To answer the premise of the article it will depend on how much starting pitching they develop.
    • Squirrel and wsnydes like this
Photo
Channing1964
Feb 28 2021 07:04 AM

Here is the problem. Who projected $140M? I did not see any such projection from the Twins. The $140M projection was a wish and the number was pulled out of the air. Some fans hoped the team would spend the equivalent to the record high payroll set last year. Is this reasonable?

Well, what is the basis of any budget? Revenue, right? I think it’s fair to say any young man/woman coming out of college with a business degree knows this to be true. Is there any chance revenue will be unaffected by the pandemic? Is that even remotely reasonable. Of course not. Best case scenario IMO is a $30M with a most likely case scenario of $40-50M. We can quibble over the exact number but the impact is going to be significant. Therefore, the problem is not the FO if you expect spending to be unaffected.

I don’t object to strongly to these really poorly formed positions until posters insist the actions are “a joke” initiated by “boneheads”. The problem is not what Falvey does not understand. The problem is what fans often don’t understand about the decision making process and responsibilities of the FO. Go ahead ... watch closely. Just don't assume the people qualified to make these decisions are idiots especially if you don't have the financial acumen to understand spending should not remain the same when a revenue reduction is certain.

I absolutely expected the payroll to be much lower because of the pandemic. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they have their head buried in the sand. Every time i see Jim Pohlad on any media outlet he is harping about the fact that the revenue reduction from last year is not going to affect his business decisions with the Twins. He stresses he is not laying off any front office employees and he can afford to pay the minor league players their full salaries for 2020. I do not care what other teams are doing but i am proud that my team is setting that bar. Now you want to argue with me what the budget is. I am sure I dont know that information specifically and i would be quite surprised if you told me that Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, or Jim Pohlad shared that information with you. My point was simply this....what would have been so wrong to spend 10 more million on Rosario this year so that we had an established major league player in that position? If i recall the combined salaries of Gonzalez and Adrianza were about equal to Simmons. Cruz is making basically the same money. They absolutely saved another 10 million by signing Happ, and Shoemaker while subtracting Odorizzi's 18 million. Why in the world should we not think there is money enough to keep Rosario. After 2021 he could have been an unrestricted free agent anyway. Some people are so in love with this front office that they never take their rose colored glasses off long enough to see some of the flaws in their thought processes. I am not even saying they deserve to get fired. What I am saying is ..Is this the way we want our organization to treat loyal and productive employees. Do we want the MLBPA to have an overall bad opinion of our teams management? There is a right, just, and fair way to do everything. I just want my team to be looked on favorably by the rest of the league and its fans. Just because the rest of the league has its head buried in analytic spread sheets and cost cutting manuals doesnt mean the Twins have to stop doing the right thing and treating the players like human beings instead of cattle. There is most likely going to a be a work stoppage in 2022 and these little things wont be forgotten by the players. All of the junior assistant general managers will be out of work if there is a 9-12 month strike in 2022 wont they? It wont matter who your smart, affordable team controlled players are if there is no league to play the games in. If you think 2020 was bad wait until you crack the books for 2022.
Photo
Major League Ready
Feb 28 2021 10:12 AM

 

I absolutely expected the payroll to be much lower because of the pandemic. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they have their head buried in the sand. Every time i see Jim Pohlad on any media outlet he is harping about the fact that the revenue reduction from last year is not going to affect his business decisions with the Twins. He stresses he is not laying off any front office employees and he can afford to pay the minor league players their full salaries for 2020. I do not care what other teams are doing but i am proud that my team is setting that bar. Now you want to argue with me what the budget is. I am sure I dont know that information specifically and i would be quite surprised if you told me that Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, or Jim Pohlad shared that information with you. My point was simply this....what would have been so wrong to spend 10 more million on Rosario this year so that we had an established major league player in that position? If i recall the combined salaries of Gonzalez and Adrianza were about equal to Simmons. Cruz is making basically the same money. They absolutely saved another 10 million by signing Happ, and Shoemaker while subtracting Odorizzi's 18 million. Why in the world should we not think there is money enough to keep Rosario. After 2021 he could have been an unrestricted free agent anyway. Some people are so in love with this front office that they never take their rose colored glasses off long enough to see some of the flaws in their thought processes. I am not even saying they deserve to get fired. What I am saying is ..Is this the way we want our organization to treat loyal and productive employees. Do we want the MLBPA to have an overall bad opinion of our teams management? There is a right, just, and fair way to do everything. I just want my team to be looked on favorably by the rest of the league and its fans. Just because the rest of the league has its head buried in analytic spread sheets and cost cutting manuals doesnt mean the Twins have to stop doing the right thing and treating the players like human beings instead of cattle. There is most likely going to a be a work stoppage in 2022 and these little things wont be forgotten by the players. All of the junior assistant general managers will be out of work if there is a 9-12 month strike in 2022 wont they? It wont matter who your smart, affordable team controlled players are if there is no league to play the games in. If you think 2020 was bad wait until you crack the books for 2022.

 

OK. I will play along. Now that we have established that expecting the budget to remain the same is unreasonable, we can agree they spent more than should have been expected. Therefore, we have two possible conclusions.

 

1) It’s unreasonable to expect they would have spent an additional roughly $10M to keep Rosario but you expect it regardless of reason.

 

2) We should have sacrificed elsewhere. Which one of these options would have been less productive than replacing Rosario with a combination of Rooker / Kirilloff / Larnach and Cave.

a. Pass on resigning Cruz.
b. Not added Simmons and used a prospect in his place.
c. We should have Passed on Happ and Robles.

d. Pass on some other combination of additions at a collective cost of $10M.

    • Channing1964 likes this

Similar Articles


by Cody Christie , Yesterday, 10:34 AM
Photo


by Nick Nelson , 11 Apr 2021
Photo


by Cody Christie , 07 Apr 2021
Photo


by Nick Nelson , 06 Apr 2021
Photo


by Cody Christie , 06 Apr 2021
Photo