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How COVID-19 Will Hurt Eddie Rosario and the Twins

Eddie Rosario and the Twins have been growing apart for a bit, but the shortened season and the outlook for 2021 make it especially hard to envision a good ending for them.
Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports
From a player’s point of view, there’s no worse career stage at which to be right now than that of Trevor May. He’s due to hit free agency this fall, but free agency is going to be as unprofitable a proposition this fall and winter as it has been since MLB players won the right to become free agents. From a team’s point of view, though, the worst career stage is the one at which Eddie Rosario now finds himself.

Rosario, 28, is two seasons of service time from becoming a free agent, but thanks to COVID-19, of course, that has effectively turned into 1.4 seasons. More saliently, the team isn’t necessarily inclined to wait that long before acting. Rosario’s persistent inconsistency at the plate and the Twins’ looming alternatives in left field have made him a trade candidate.

Alex Kirilloff and Travor Larnach both seem likely to surpass Rosario in terms of performance within a year. Even if they don’t, Rosario’s poor defense in left field and increasing salary make him a cog ill-suited to operating what is a newly modernized machine. Trading him could, in theory, have been a good option for the team, either this summer or after the season. Now, however, that seems much less likely.

Consider that, for players actually reaching free agency, the impact of whatever losses owners realize due to COVID-19 will be clear and straightforward. They’ll only get what the market will bear, and (for better or worse) teams will set the market in accordance with their projected budgets for 2021. For those still early in their careers (either yet to reach arbitration, or just reaching it), the impacts will be minimal, and teams will be more eager than ever to acquire and retain players in that segment of the compensation structure.

Arbitration, though, is a different matter. It follows rules and procedures that will be hard, if not impossible, to adjust to fit the present circumstances. What a player earns via arbitration is determined by how much they earned the previous year, how they compare to similar players at the same stage of the process, and (in the case of players late in the process, like Rosario) how they compare to players who have recently reached free agency.

The inflexibility of the arbitration system has been a problem for years now, distorting the league’s compensation structure and changing the career trajectories of several individual players. It’s an especially glaring weakness now, however, and it leaves teams and players in a bad position.

Rosario was set to make $7.75 million in 2020, though that figure will now be pro-rated. Given his proximity to free agency and the way the system values the antiquated measures of offensive performance in which he excels, he could easily be in line to get an eight-figure salary in 2021. That’s part of why the Twins are interested in moving on. In a league that looks likely to spend substantially less money on players next season, though, it becomes a downright bad deal, and that torpedoes Rosario’s trade value.

The only way the Twins might plausibly get something worthwhile for Rosario, at this point, is if they find a trade partner who is also saddled with a player near free agency ill-fitted to their roster and set to make an inflated arbitration-set salary. Failing that, Rosario will either stick around (making it harder to get Kirilloff, Larnach, Brent Rooker, and any other hitter who takes unexpectedly large steps forward, as Mitch Garver and Luis Arráez did just last season), or he’ll have to be traded for virtually nothing.

Except in the most craven zero-sum sort of way, no team or player is really benefiting from COVID-19. They’re all being hurt in different ways, though. The Twins and Rosario now find themselves in a tricky spot, and the only really happy resolution for which they might hope is Rosario getting very hot over the course of this short season. Rosario has had All-Star-caliber half-seasons in the past. For multiple reasons, the Twins need another one in 2020.

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54 Comments

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yarnivek1972
Jul 13 2020 07:37 PM
Rosario is more likely to be non-tendered than traded. As you mention, he provides marginal offense and subpar defense at a premium price. Those are the kind of players being squeezed out of the league.
    • KFEY93 likes this

Arg. This makes me sad.

    • PopRiveter likes this

I'd like to see what happens when the season starts. Let's not forget Eddie has stretches when he carries the team. 

    • PopRiveter likes this
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Channing1964
Jul 14 2020 05:15 AM
I'm not quite sure how I will ever understand some people's disdain for Eddie Rosario. I get it that his contract situation makes it seem like it's hard to move him. I get it that last year his defensive metrics took a hit. I even get it when people say that their little sister could have knocked in a hundred runs batting fourth in the lineup last year. What I don't get is this. This man came up with a group of players that includes Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Rogers, May, Duffey, and Garver. Because he was like a year, or a half a year ahead of them they view him as a sort of catalyst or leader of the group. Is anyone even paying attention? Did anyone see the throw he made to save the game at Fenway last year. Does anyone remember he had to play on a sprained ankle AND move to rf to occasionally make room for Araez to play lf last year. If you told me it would cost 7.75 mil a year for a 30 bomb/100 rbi/ clubhouse leader i would think you were insane. 29 other mlb teams would take that deal in a heartbeat. Why don't we just cheer for Eddie and let that other crap take care of itself after 2021? Make no mistake Cave, Wade, Larnach, Kiriloff, Lewis, or Celestino could never carry Rosario's jock strap. At least not this year OR next. Just saying.
    • PopRiveter, USNMCPO, LA VIkes Fan and 7 others like this
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theBOMisthebomb
Jul 14 2020 06:40 AM

I'm not quite sure how I will ever understand some people's disdain for Eddie Rosario. I get it that his contract situation makes it seem like it's hard to move him. I get it that last year his defensive metrics took a hit. I even get it when people say that their little sister could have knocked in a hundred runs batting fourth in the lineup last year. What I don't get is this. This man came up with a group of players that includes Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Rogers, May, Duffey, and Garver. Because he was like a year, or a half a year ahead of them they view him as a sort of catalyst or leader of the group. Is anyone even paying attention? Did anyone see the throw he made to save the game at Fenway last year. Does anyone remember he had to play on a sprained ankle AND move to rf to occasionally make room for Araez to play lf last year. If you told me it would cost 7.75 mil a year for a 30 bomb/100 rbi/ clubhouse leader i would think you were insane. 29 other mlb teams would take that deal in a heartbeat. Why don't we just cheer for Eddie and let that other crap take care of itself after 2021? Make no mistake Cave, Wade, Larnach, Kiriloff, Lewis, or Celestino could never carry Rosario's jock strap. At least not this year OR next. Just saying.

Amen to all this. Eddie is the type of guy who will be sorely missed if the Twins don't keep him long term. It might take a year or two of reflection and a new guy struggling a bit before Twins fans realize what Eddie brought to the table. Maybe Falvine will want to keep him?
    • PopRiveter, rdehring, Crackedfungo and 1 other like this

I understand what you are saying about Eddie's situation, Matt. And agree that two of the Twins prime prospects are corner outfielders.

 

But I must ask, who from inside the Twins organization has ever indicated that the organization and Eddie are going in opposite directions? I recall seeing many writers here and on other sites piling crap on Eddie's play. I recall seeing many, many commenters taking shots at his abilities. But I don't recall anyone who makes decisions for the Twins ever hinting at anything other than they like Eddie.

 

I don't know what the future holds for Eddie and the Twins, and I have warmed to the position that trading him may become their best alternative.But I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him an extension sometime next year. They can then sit back and see which of the top prospects actually makes it and deal with the others. But that's just my opinion.

    • LA VIkes Fan, Shaitan, Crackedfungo and 3 others like this
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Doctor Gast
Jul 14 2020 07:42 AM

I too don`t understand why so many people want to get rid of Rosario. Yes, he seems to be over aggressive at the plate & too lackadaisical in LF but he`s still by far the best we have in that position. Many want some up coming bat to take his place but they are more suited to play 1st base or DH which we have such a glut, I`d like to trade one or two of them which would be a much better trading chip than Rosario for a ace or potential ace. It seems like Rosario is serious about changing, healthy & he still has a great arm. So I`d give him a chance to prove himself (he has the tools to do it) & if he does, I`d keep him

    • rdehring and Joey P like this
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Major League Ready
Jul 14 2020 08:32 AM

 

I too don`t understand why so many people want to get rid of Rosario. Yes, he seems to be over aggressive at the plate & too lackadaisical in LF but he`s still by far the best we have in that position. Many want some up coming bat to take his place but they are more suited to play 1st base or DH which we have such a glut, I`d like to trade one or two of them which would be a much better trading chip than Rosario for a ace or potential ace. It seems like Rosario is serious about changing, healthy & he still has a great arm. So I`d give him a chance to prove himself (he has the tools to do it) & if he does, I`d keep him

 

Rosario is an average MLB player. I would like to think the floor for Kirilloff and Larnach is average MLB player and both have the potential to be well above average perhaps even all-star level level players. Obviously the floor for any prospect is to not even make it to the MLB level but the likely floor for Kirilloff and Larnach is considerably higher.

 

The team is far better off in the long run investing in other assets as opposed to Rosario when we have players that will likely be as good or better than Rosario on the verge of being ready. That might not be until 2022 but that will,be determined over the course of 2020 and perhaps 2021. It's entirely possible they keep Rosario next year while they audition his replacement. KIrilloff / Larnach / Rooker and possibly Celestino will all get their chance to displace Rosatio. The best case scenario for the Twins is that one or more of them bursts on to the scene in a big way.

    • birdwatcher, Cap'n Piranha and DocBauer like this

"Eddie Rosario and the Twins have been growing apart for a bit"

 

Do you have a source for this opening statement? Starting with "It seems like" would clarify that it's a perception, but not necessarily a fact.

    • rdehring, Channing1964 and TouchEmAllGuy like this

 

Rosario is more likely to be non-tendered than traded. As you mention, he provides marginal offense and subpar defense at a premium price. Those are the kind of players being squeezed out of the league.

 

 

Unless something drastic changes from his 2019 performance, I give non-tendering between a 0-5% chance. 

    • rdehring and Channing1964 like this
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LA VIkes Fan
Jul 14 2020 09:13 AM

The question of whether Kiriloff/Larnach/Rooker are "as good or better than Rosario" Is only one of the issues. First, they clearly are not at that status now and are unlikely to be at that status in 2021. This year and next are for contending for championships, not auditioning new guys. So even if you just looked at the one position, which I don't think you can do, it makes absolutely no sense to try to trade Rosario. His situaton this year and next works fairly well for us. We have him at a relatively controlled salary level this year and next which gives us time to evaluate which of the other players, if any of them, can be a viable replacement. I think Eddie is the starting left fielder on this team this year and next unless someone offers us significant pitching for him.

 

You also have to look at this in a larger context with the other outfield positions and the DH spot. We have a centerfielder with great potential who has really not shown at the plate and who can't stop getting hurt. We have a right fielder who had a solid year last year, not a great year but a solid year, who also has potential but until last year was a below average hitter. He also may haveto be the centerfielder at some point if Buxton can't stay healthy. Add into that the undeniable fact that while Cruz is a tremendous DH for this year, and perhaps next or maybe even the year after if we get really lucky, after that he has to be replaced. And this is the optimistic scenario assuming none of them suffers a major or career ending injury in the next two seasons.

 

One last fact to throw in, Rosario is a team leader. His teammates look up to him and the team plays better when he is on the field. Management does not get to pick the leaders amongst its employees as all of us in business well know. It will be an emotional loss for this team when and if Rosario leaves.

 

I think the Twins have to consider all of those issues before you can make a decision on Rosario. The good news is that we have three or four guys in the minors who look like they might be the real deal. That's great, but hisotry tells us that we will be lucky if one of them is better than Rosario and another is as good as Kepler. Plus, the timing of when Rosario hits free agency as compared to the earliest time when they are likely to be ready seems to work pretty well. I think management is playing this extremely well. Let some of the younger guys get their feet wet this year and next to see what we have and then when that first wave of changes hits the year Rosario hits free agency and Cruz likely loses to Father Time, we will have an idea of what we have and can make some intelligent decisions. I can definitely see a likely scenario where those decisions Involves starting one or two of the young guys in an OF/1B/DH/4thOF role, with theremainder of that five person grouping including some combination of Rosario, Kepler, Buxton and maybe even Sabato, Wade or Cave.  

 

There is a long way to go yet before we should or you would have to make a decision on Rosario. I know the guys in the minor leagues always look so enticing. We always imagine them to be the second coming of Tony Oliva. We are a looong way from knowing the answer to these questions. Rushing to a decison does us no favors. Rosario isn't going to net us a big haul right now so why even consider moving him? Management is playing this correctly. The big decisions don't come until mid to end of next year. and even that might be early. Let's enjoy our depth and contend and let Rosario drive in some clutch runs and win us some games along the way. 

    • rdehring, Channing1964, heresthething and 1 other like this

 

I'm not quite sure how I will ever understand some people's disdain for Eddie Rosario. I get it that his contract situation makes it seem like it's hard to move him. I get it that last year his defensive metrics took a hit. I even get it when people say that their little sister could have knocked in a hundred runs batting fourth in the lineup last year. What I don't get is this. This man came up with a group of players that includes Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Rogers, May, Duffey, and Garver. Because he was like a year, or a half a year ahead of them they view him as a sort of catalyst or leader of the group. Is anyone even paying attention? Did anyone see the throw he made to save the game at Fenway last year. Does anyone remember he had to play on a sprained ankle AND move to rf to occasionally make room for Araez to play lf last year. If you told me it would cost 7.75 mil a year for a 30 bomb/100 rbi/ clubhouse leader i would think you were insane. 29 other mlb teams would take that deal in a heartbeat. Why don't we just cheer for Eddie and let that other crap take care of itself after 2021? Make no mistake Cave, Wade, Larnach, Kiriloff, Lewis, or Celestino could never carry Rosario's jock strap. At least not this year OR next. Just saying.

I have been a big fan of Eddie for awhile now.He has always hit well at all levels.He is not the typical guy hitting, with his huge chase rate, but good contact on chases.He is a leader in the club house and loves to come through in big situations.You can point out to several times he stepped up in big situations, but you need to accept the bad with the good.For years, people have stated his defense is below average and his decision making on defense is questionable.He thinks he can make every throw, but sometimes he makes poor choices and runners advance.  

 

When hot, the man can carry any team and will be feared by all pitchers, because other than behind him, there is no where you can throw a pitch he may not hit a HR on.I once saw him hit a HR on a ball at his eyes.When cold, he will leave you shaking your head wondering what he was thinking.He is who he is and will never change at this point in his career, no matter how much you ask him too.  

 

That being said, the question the Twins need to answer is if they feel they have someone as good, or better, in the system.That includes the impact in the clubhouse, something that I feel goes underrated for both positive or negative impacts. 

 

I do not see any long term deal in his future at this point.If he has good season this year the Twins will be up for big choice, tender contract or not.My guess, they will not because he is replaceable on the field, and teams may be looking to save money next year because of unknowns of COVID and fans in seats. 

    • Channing1964 likes this

 

Rosario is an average MLB player. I would like to think the floor for Kirilloff and Larnach is average MLB player and both have the potential to be well above average perhaps even all-star level level players. Obviously the floor for any prospect is to not even make it to the MLB level but the likely floor for Kirilloff and Larnach is considerably higher.

 

The team is far better off in the long run investing in other assets as opposed to Rosario when we have players that will likely be as good or better than Rosario on the verge of being ready. That might not be until 2022 but that will,be determined over the course of 2020 and perhaps 2021. It's entirely possible they keep Rosario next year while they audition his replacement. KIrilloff / Larnach / Rooker and possibly Celestino will all get their chance to displace Rosatio. The best case scenario for the Twins is that one or more of them bursts on to the scene in a big way.

I understand much of what you are saying and agree with your expectations for Kirilloff and Larnach. And your belief that the team may be better off putting the dollars Rosario will earn elsewhere may also be correct. But I must disagree with your statement that Rosario is an average MLB player. 

 

There is nothing average about Eddie Rosario. Hitting 30+ home runs and driving in 100+ is not average. Yes, I understand the argument some bring that he was fortunate to have the opportunity of coming to the plate often with runners in scoring position. But, unlike so many over the years he got the job done and drove them in...more than 100 times.

 

There is nothing average about his swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. And I would guess that he gets more hits and extra base hits on balls well out of the zone than any other player in baseball. Frustrating, yes. Average, certainly not.

 

There is nothing average about the emotion he brings to the field and his team when on one of his several streaks every year, streaks that can last for weeks. There is nothing average how he cuts off balls down the left field line that look for certain to be doubles, at least when playing on two good legs and ankles. There also is nothing average about how he comes to the field and plays with noticeable injuries. Yes, there are many others that also play hurt, but I would guess not your average MLB player.

 

There is nothing average about his making a few truly dumb baserunning mistakes during the season, mistakes you try to eliminate in Little League. Yet, he also takes so many extra bases that those few gaffes can be forgiven. Again, not your average player. And there is nothing average about the five to ten outs he gets from throws that very few players in the game will even try, much less be successful with. And yes, there is nothing average about the dozen or so throws he makes to the wrong base each season...certainly not something you would expect from your average veteran outfielder.

 

Yes, there can certainly be criticism of some of the things Eddie does on the field. And I suppose that some of the stats you all use may put Eddie amongst those average outfielders in the game. But the player I see on the field is anything but average and a player I hope I can continue to watch in a Twins uniform for many years.

    • LA VIkes Fan, terrydactyls1947, Crackedfungo and 3 others like this
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Cap'n Piranha
Jul 14 2020 09:54 AM

 

I'm not quite sure how I will ever understand some people's disdain for Eddie Rosario. I get it that his contract situation makes it seem like it's hard to move him. I get it that last year his defensive metrics took a hit. I even get it when people say that their little sister could have knocked in a hundred runs batting fourth in the lineup last year. What I don't get is this. This man came up with a group of players that includes Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Rogers, May, Duffey, and Garver. Because he was like a year, or a half a year ahead of them they view him as a sort of catalyst or leader of the group. Is anyone even paying attention? Did anyone see the throw he made to save the game at Fenway last year. Does anyone remember he had to play on a sprained ankle AND move to rf to occasionally make room for Araez to play lf last year. If you told me it would cost 7.75 mil a year for a 30 bomb/100 rbi/ clubhouse leader i would think you were insane. 29 other mlb teams would take that deal in a heartbeat. Why don't we just cheer for Eddie and let that other crap take care of itself after 2021? Make no mistake Cave, Wade, Larnach, Kiriloff, Lewis, or Celestino could never carry Rosario's jock strap. At least not this year OR next. Just saying.

 

Eddie played a total of 14 games, for 98 innings, in a position other than left field; let's not pretend he's a poor man's Marwin all of the sudden.The throw in Fenway was great, but if we're going to start picking individual plays, you have to mention all the times he chased pitches and made outs in key situations as well.

 

If he was playing on a sprained ankle, then that would explain his reduced mobility on defense, but it would not explain his complete lack of plate discipline.Further, if that injury was so debilitating, it would have been better for him to sit--after all, in the second half of last season, Eddie was 106th out of 140 players in OPS at .750, which is only .007 ahead of Pujols, and behind players like Kevin Newman and Anthony Santander.

 

His wRC+ in the second half was 89, which means he was 11% WORSE than the average player.Not for nothing, but Jake Cave had a .964 OPS in the second half and a 150 wRC+, while playing more innings in right and center than Eddie; if those trends continue, it's Eddie that can't hold Cave's jockstrap, not the other way around.

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Cap'n Piranha
Jul 14 2020 09:58 AM

 

I too don`t understand why so many people want to get rid of Rosario. Yes, he seems to be over aggressive at the plate & too lackadaisical in LF but he`s still by far the best we have in that position. Many want some up coming bat to take his place but they are more suited to play 1st base or DH which we have such a glut, I`d like to trade one or two of them which would be a much better trading chip than Rosario for a ace or potential ace. It seems like Rosario is serious about changing, healthy & he still has a great arm. So I`d give him a chance to prove himself (he has the tools to do it) & if he does, I`d keep him

 

So, Eddie is far better than the outfield prospects, yet those prospects are much better trade chips?The only way that's true is if a bunch of other teams are not just not as smart as Falvine, but are actually way dumber.

 

If Eddie can turn it around, display even a modicum of patience, and stay relatively healthy, then I support keeping him.Otherwise, I'd rather use his $8-$10M a year on an extension for Berrios, or keeping Odorizzi.

    • Major League Ready likes this
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Channing1964
Jul 14 2020 11:20 AM
I just like Eddie Rosario and what he brings in team spirit. He played hurt last year because Everybody was banged up and he felt he needed to be in there. Apparently Rocco, Shelton, Falvey and Levine agreed so that speaks for itself. Nobody is gonna give us a front line pitcher for him and we know that. To say he should be non tendered is really nonsense. Show me a 30+ homer and 100+ rbi guy that isnt a steal at 7.75 million a year! We dont have to worry about it until after 2021. Don't be surprised to see Larnach, Lewis, or Kiriloff be included in some package for quality pitching before Rosario ever is.
    • SQUIRREL, LA VIkes Fan and rdehring like this
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yarnivek1972
Jul 14 2020 11:24 AM
I love all this “Rosario is a team leader” stuff.

I didn’t realize we had so many people posting to this forum who were members of the team. After all, the players are the only people who know who their leaders are. Fans don’t.
    • heresthething likes this
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Channing1964
Jul 14 2020 11:40 AM

I love all this “Rosario is a team leader” stuff.
I didn’t realize we had so many people posting to this forum who were members of the team. After all, the players are the only people who know who their leaders are. Fans don’t.

You dont have to believe it if you dont wanna. If you really wanna know just pay attention or listen to what Sano, Cruz, Buxton, Polanco or Berrios have to say about it. Where else have you heard so many different teammates at so many different times say stuff like "I just wanna be there for my teammates" All these guys came up together through A, AA, AAA etc. You can look that up. If Eddie goes the Twins are gonna miss him. A Lot. So will I.
    • LA VIkes Fan and rdehring like this
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Crackedfungo
Jul 14 2020 11:53 AM

Show me how many twins players hit 30 hrs, 100 RBI, batted .270+ in the last 20 years?Only two?How many times did 'hometown boy' Mauer?NEVER.In most twins years since Puckett, this would be THE cornerstone player.His fielding has been great, mediocre, and poor at times.Injuries and some decision making have made substantial contributions to these results - it isn't skill or tools.All for only $7.75MM per year (which is a bargain by any measure).Anyone that says that he is NOT one of the leaders of the team doesn't watch the games, and anyone that argues that he can CARRY the team for long stretches hasn't tuned in.Prospects are suspects until they prove otherwise.They must adjust, and many take years to do so (Buxton and Hicks, anyone?).Rosario is much better than average, and this is a team built to win in the next 2-3 years.Carry on.....

    • rdehring and Channing1964 like this

 

"Eddie Rosario and the Twins have been growing apart for a bit"

 

Do you have a source for this opening statement? Starting with "It seems like" would clarify that it's a perception, but not necessarily a fact.

I'd bet it's a perception... I think it's the combination of no talks of an extension and the other corner OF just signed one, and the fact that Kiriloff, Larnach, and Rooker are coming up and haven't been traded away. The way things it going, it appears Rosario isn't going to be here past 2021... emphasis on "appears".

 

Rosario is a player with high highs and very low lows... he'll get you somewhere between 1.5 to 3 WAR in a given season, and he can be a great clutch hitter and has a great arm to throw out runners with, but all the crazy strikeouts, refusal to take walks, and airmailed throws into the infield drag down his value, not to mention that recently his defensive abilities have waned.

 

For a team which has its core aging up and getting more expensive, it makes sense to transition LF to one of the prospects, but that doesn't mean we have to kick Eddie out the door. I'd wager on him getting tendered next year and then hitting free agency in 2022.

    • LA VIkes Fan, Major League Ready and Shaitan like this
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Cap'n Piranha
Jul 14 2020 02:34 PM

 

You dont have to believe it if you dont wanna. If you really wanna know just pay attention or listen to what Sano, Cruz, Buxton, Polanco or Berrios have to say about it. Where else have you heard so many different teammates at so many different times say stuff like "I just wanna be there for my teammates" All these guys came up together through A, AA, AAA etc. You can look that up. If Eddie goes the Twins are gonna miss him. A Lot. So will I.

 

I'm reasonably certain Cruz is the team leader; I'm also reasonably certain Cruz didn't come up through the minors with Eddie.I will also miss Eddie if he goes--I've followed him since he battled Miguel for the Appy League homer crown way back in2010 or 2011.I'm sure he'd be missed in the clubhouse as well, he does seem to be well liked.But guys who are well liked leave clubhouses every year, it's part of the game.And Eddie's on-field production can probably be largely, if not entirely replaced at only 10-20% of the cost.For a team that needs to figure out how to pay Berrios and Buxton, as well as give significant raises in the next year or two to Garver and Arraez, Eddie is just not a luxury the Twins can afford.

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Major League Ready
Jul 14 2020 02:36 PM

 

I'd bet it's a perception... I think it's the combination of no talks of an extension and the other corner OF just signed one, and the fact that Kiriloff, Larnach, and Rooker are coming up and haven't been traded away. The way things it going, it appears Rosario isn't going to be here past 2021... emphasis on "appears".

 

Rosario is a player with high highs and very low lows... he'll get you somewhere between 1.5 to 3 WAR in a given season, and he can be a great clutch hitter and has a great arm to throw out runners with, but all the crazy strikeouts, refusal to take walks, and airmailed throws into the infield drag down his value, not to mention that recently his defensive abilities have waned.

 

For a team which has its core aging up and getting more expensive, it makes sense to transition LF to one of the prospects, but that doesn't mean we have to kick Eddie out the door. I'd wager on him getting tendered next year and then hitting free agency in 2022.

 

This is a fair assessment and I agree he is most likely here through 2021. However, the losses resulting from Covid-19 will result in players being non-tendered we would not normally see. This year could determine his fate with the Twins but I suspect they hang on to him allowing the Twins to assess replacements during the 2021 season.

 

It's probably the ups and downs that causes the variance in opinions. He had a coupe stretches over the past 5 seasons where he was great. Rosario had an OPS of 870 and a wRC+ of 127 for the 2017 season through the first half of 2018. That was good for 5.9 war over that year and a half period. In the past year and a half, Rosario's OPS is .752 and his wRC+ is 93. That would not be bad for some positions but it's pretty poor for a LFer. His WAR during the past year and a half is 1.3. IMO, the cancellation of the MiLB season made it more likely he will be retained. It would have been pretty easy to let him go (trade or non-tender) if one of the prospects would have forced the issue this year. That could still happen but it doubt it.

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Cap'n Piranha
Jul 14 2020 02:50 PM

 

Show me how many twins players hit 30 hrs, 100 RBI, batted .270+ in the last 20 years?Only two?How many times did 'hometown boy' Mauer?NEVER.In most twins years since Puckett, this would be THE cornerstone player.His fielding has been great, mediocre, and poor at times.Injuries and some decision making have made substantial contributions to these results - it isn't skill or tools.All for only $7.75MM per year (which is a bargain by any measure).Anyone that says that he is NOT one of the leaders of the team doesn't watch the games, and anyone that argues that he can CARRY the team for long stretches hasn't tuned in.Prospects are suspects until they prove otherwise.They must adjust, and many take years to do so (Buxton and Hicks, anyone?).Rosario is much better than average, and this is a team built to win in the next 2-3 years.Carry on.....

 

30 homers is still a significant number, but far less so than it used to be.53 players hit 30 homers last year; in 2009 it was 30, in 1999 it was 42.Just look at 2014-2015 for comparison--less than 20 players hit 30+ homers in each of those years.RBI is also an extremely flawed stat--for his career, Mauer had 2,107 PA's with RISP across 1,314 games--that means Mauer had 26.5% of his total PA's with RISP, in 70.7% of his games, and created 765 RBI, or an RBI to RISP PA ratio of .363

 

Eddie on those same metrics has had 668 PA's with RISP across 444 games, and produced 239 RBI.So 25.7% of Eddie's PA's have come with RISP, in 69.4% of his games, but his RBI to RISP PA ratio is only .358.

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Channing1964
Jul 14 2020 03:51 PM
We can crunch the numbers and argue about it all week but the bottom line is....Nobody in the front office has ever given any indication that Rosario is even available. The fact he hasn't been extended probably means they're waiting to see how he improves his plate discipline etc. That doesn't matter. What matters is he's under team control until after the 2021 season. There's no way they non tender him ever. The Falvines know damn well theres nobody else in the organization that brings to the team what Rosario brings. I would not be surprised to see some combination of Rooker/Larnach/Kiriloff/Lewis/Duran/ etc packaged for a front line starter. That will happen before anybody beats Rosario out.
    • rdehring likes this
Eddie has a lot to offer. And some great moments, right from the outset https://youtu.be/CVrQwEJyGgY
    • Channing1964 likes this