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Fun with Numbers 2018 Edition

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:47 AM
With the season being early its time to bring out the projections based off of the early games in the season.   Like right now Zach...
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Article: MIN 7, TB 8: Playing The Wrong Notes

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:00 AM
Chopin’s Etude Op. 25 No 5 is better known as the “Wrong Note” Etude. Not because it encourages the pianist to play the wrong notes, but...
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Is It Time to Start Worrying About Sano?

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:54 PM
Ok. 30 homers a year are not going to offset subpar fielding and striking out 40% of the time. He is showing no indication that he unders...
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Ryan LaMarre Opportunity

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:43 PM
Ryan LaMarre has been infiltrating other topics, sometimes with my assistance so I'm starting a fresh LaMarre topic to help stay on topic...
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Roster Decision

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:54 PM
The Twins have 13 pitchers and 9 relievers with Busenitz replacing Buxton on the roster. It doesn’t seem that the roster construction is...
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Hard Truths

Attached Image: liriano.jpg When the news came down this weekend that the Twins had traded Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a pair of middling 23-year-old prospects, the reaction around here was understandably negative. The same questions echoed in the minds of fans across the state.

Why did the Twins deal Liriano in the wake of his worst start of the season?

Why did they back away from their stated goal of adding young, high-upside talent?

And why – WHY – did they send a potential difference-maker to the one team that almost no Twins fan wants to see hoisting a trophy in October?
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
The answers to these questions aren't especially difficult to figure. Terry Ryan settled on dealing Liriano to the Sox because they had the best offer on the table and he didn't expect better ones to come by Tuesday. Of course he would have preferred to pry away younger prospects with higher ceilings, but even with the increased number of buyers brought on by the new postseason format, clearly teams weren't knocking at the door to hand over those kinds of players.

And while that's disappointing, it shouldn't be all that surprising.

It's not because of Liriano's clunker last Tuesday (which happened to come against the team that traded for him). General managers aren't stupid enough to view one outing in a vacuum when it comes to evaluating a pitcher. Bad starts happen. The problem is that, with Frankie, they've happened too often over the past five years.

Since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008, Liriano owns a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Utterly mediocre numbers that have been very much in line with the ones he's posted this year. For all his flurries of brilliance, the league is also vividly aware of the fragility – physical, mental or both – that has made him so insanely inconsistent and unreliable.

Rental players, in general, don't garner huge returns because no one wants to mortgage the future for two months of production from an impending free agent – particularly when it's a pitcher who is going to make, at most, a dozen starts. Occasionally a savvy GM can take advantage of one club's desperation, but in this case it became clear that nobody fully trusted Liriano. (Admit it, that includes you.)

Based on the left-hander's recent run of success, fans were overrating their own asset and setting expectations too high, putting Ryan in an unfortunate position. There was literally no way he was going to be able to acquit himself in this situation; holding on to Liriano made no real sense and the impact offers weren't there.

And sadly, I suspect he'll have a hard time making up for it in these final hours before Tuesday afternoon's deadline, because while trade chips like Denard Span and Josh Willingham are more appealing with multi-year contracts, they still don't have the kind of value that many fans want to believe.

Jim Crikket had it right when he wrote two weeks ago that we should be prepared for disappointment during the days leading up to the deadline. In a season like this one, I guess we shouldn't have expected anything else.


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