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Cody’s Top 20 Twins Prospects: 11-15

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 02:23 PM
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Could Dobnak be an All Star?

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 Could Dobnak be an all star? With this terrific infield, I believe he could be. When Donaldson was in the line up Dobnak shine...
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Who’s the Top Twins Prospect? Alex Kirilloff vs. Royce Lewis

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 01:40 PM
Many teams would be ecstatic to have the likes of Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis headlining their farm system. For Twins fans, a debate c...
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Is Cruz a MUST signing? And what if he doesn't fit?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:22 PM
Let me state I love Cruz and want him back if possible. I not only believe he brings class, experience, knowledge and leadership to the t...
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FA Value Shopping

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:03 AM
Just for fun-here is 1 player at each position that might be worth the money and my contract estimates:   C- Sandy Leon 1 year/1.5 m...
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Recent Blogs


Free Agent Faceoff: Marcell Ozuna vs. Nelson Cruz

The Minnesota Twins have a clear need for a designated hitter this offseason, and the free agent market has some intriguing names. Nelson Cruz and Marcell Ozuna are the top designated hitters available. Which would make for a better fit for the reigning AL Central Champs?
Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports (Marcell Ozuna) and © Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports (Nelson Cruz) -- Illustration by Adriana Taylor
“Free Agent Faceoff” will be a multi-part series in which I will pit two free agent targets against one another, examining their candidacy as a free agent for the Minnesota Twins. Ultimately I will decide the winner of the faceoff as the better fit for the Twins.

The first faceoff, two designated hitters: Marcell Ozuna vs. Nelson Cruz

Marcell Ozuna
Contract Estimate: 4 years/$72M

The Case For:

Marcell Ozuna finished 6th in MVP voting in 2020 after leading the National League in both home runs and RBI and posting a massive 1.067 OPS in 60 games. Ozuna’s numbers were no fluke, either, as the free agent finished in the mid-90s percentile for both exit velocity and barrel %. Ozuna possesses elite power and contact skills and is also extremely smart at the plate, posting a BB% of 14.2 in 2020, good enough for the top-12% of baseball.

Further, Ozuna will only just be entering into his age-30 season in the Majors in 2021. He is right in the middle of his prime, and figures to have many seasons of crushing baseballs ahead of him over the next half-decade.

In addition to being a designated hitter, Ozuna also possesses the ability to play the outfield. Since entering the league in 2013 Ozuna has over 8,000 innings of experience in the outfield, playing all three outfield positions. Ozuna hasn’t been super effective in the field, but the flexibility that he provides by being able to chip in on defense makes him extremely valuable.

The Case Against:

While Ozuna undoubtedly put up elite numbers in 2020, his career has been wildly inconsistent over the years. Since entering the league full-time in 2014, Ozuna has posted more seasons in his career with an OPS under .775 (4) than over .775 (3). If the Minnesota Twins were to sign the former Atlanta Brave this offseason, they would be acquiring him at his absolute highest value, paying top dollar after a great performance for 60 games. The small sample size could easily be more of an outlier for Ozuna’s career, where his realistic production expectation might be closer to the .816 OPS that he had averaged for the four seasons prior to his 2020 breakout.

Because the Minnesota Twins would be acquiring Ozuna at his peak value, the contract to sign him would need to be quite generous, likely requiring 4 years and somewhere in the range of $72M, handicapping the Twins payroll for years to come and making additional moves harder to come by. Further, with Ozuna’s spot as the team’s designated hitter on the payroll for the next four years, the Twins could find themselves in a tough spot should players like Miguel Sanó or Josh Donaldson decline enough in the field to necessitate becoming designated hitters themselves.

Nelson Cruz
Contract Estimate: 1 year/$16M

The Case For:

Nelson Cruz requires little introduction for Minnesota Twins fans. In two seasons with the Twins, Cruz has posted a combined OPS of 1.020, leading the team in home runs in both seasons. Off the field, Cruz has been a leader in the Minnesota Twins clubhouse and become a fan favorite for those in Twins Territory.

While it’s natural to be fearful of Nelson Cruz’s production dropping off in his age-41 season, the same could have been said for Cruz going into his age-39 and 40 seasons, when he defied historical precedent and provided the Twins monstrous numbers at the plate. Cruz has made it clear year after year, that past age-related production precedent does not apply to him.

Signing Nelson Cruz would allow the Minnesota Twins a tremendous amount of flexibility. First, signing Cruz would allow the Twins to fill their designated hitter spot without tying up their future payroll, as Nelson’s age will likely only require a 1-year contract, or potentially a second year that would kick in if certain incentives are met in the first year. In addition to the financial flexibility, the shortened Cruz contract would also provide the Twins with roster flexibility. Given the injury history of Miguel Sanó and Josh Donaldson, the Twins could certainly find themselves in a spot over the next two seasons where they might need to shift Sanó or Donaldson to the designated hitter position, and signing Cruz this offseason wouldn’t inhibit them from being able to do so.

The Case Against:

Sure, Nelson Cruz has defied all past precedent when it comes to age-related production, but at the same time ... he’s going to be 41 years old next season! There is certainly an imminent drop off coming for Cruz, and that drop off could certainly be coming next season. Teams constantly make the mistake of moving on from their aging stars a year too late rather than a year too early, and there is a very real chance that the Twins could be moving on from Cruz a year too late, should they decide to bring him back in 2021.

Down the stretch of the 2020 season, Nelson Cruz began to suffer from knee soreness, and his production took a dip as a result. After posting months with an OPS greater than 1.000 in both July and August, Cruz saw his OPS dip down to a more modest .844 OPS in September and October, perhaps hinting at a larger-scale production drop off in 2021.

Twins Twitter’s Take



The Verdict

Looking at the cases for both designated hitter free agents, Nelson Cruz makes much more sense as a target for this Minnesota Twins ball club. While the Twins have shown the willingness to open up their pocketbooks and spend money under this front office regime, this club is still a middle-market team that can only afford so many high-dollar contracts on their books. Signing Ozuna, a designated hitter, to a high-dollar deal for four years would simply hamper the Twins books too much and hamper them on such a replaceable position like designated hitter. Additionally, the Twins have multiple players in the pipeline who could fill the designated hitter position down the line, whether it is for an aging player declining in the field like Sanó or Donaldson, or a current prospect needing a roster spot like Brent Rooker or Aaron Sabato, the Twins simply can’t afford to tie up a roster spot on a designated hitter for the next four seasons.

In Nelson Cruz, there is definite risk with his age and likely dip in health and production, but his upside on this Twins team has been seen in each of the past two seasons on and off the field. The likely commitment of just one season greatly minimizes Minnesota’s risk and leaves the Twins with clear books to go out and sign players in future seasons while this contending window is still wide open.

Do you think the Minnesota Twins should go after Nelson Cruz or Marcell Ozuna at their likely price points? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

Be sure to check back to Twins Daily throughout this week for more editions of “Free Agent Faceoff”!

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19 Comments

Good write up, but I feel like signing Cruz is a no-brainer. The one position the Twins appear to be fully set at for years to come is DH, so there's no need to sign an expensive long term player there when worst case scenario the spot can serve as a mostly off day for a rotation of sluggers.

    • Otwins, specialiststeve, DocBauer and 6 others like this

Where is the option for the case against both?

 

Rather than spending ten plus million on Cruz or much, much more for the other guy, how about spending $600K on one of the young kids in the system? That would also open up a spot to rotate several of their big bats in the regular lineup thru the DH spot.

 

Seeing that the Twins have pulled their offer to Cruz off the table, got a feeling looking internally is high on their list. 

    • mikelink45, Major League Ready, DocBauer and 2 others like this
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Hollywood42
Jan 11 2021 09:07 AM

Safely Cruz for me. Ozuna is a good hitter but very likely will never match his 2020 output. Moving forward I expect him to be a ~.280 hitter, ~.330 OBP with 30-35 HR a year. That's only a modest improvement over Eddie Rosario. Ozuna is very poor defensively as well, and it just doesn't make sense to me positionally to commit 4+ years to Ozuna. We'd have to juggle guys around basically each year to make space for Kirilloff/Rooker, enable a potential Sano switch to DH or Donaldson switch to 1B/DH, etc

 

I wouldn't say no to Ozuna, but I don't think he's a very good fit here at all to be honest

    • DocBauer, Vanimal46, rdehring and 1 other like this
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strumdatjaguar
Jan 11 2021 09:23 AM
Rotating internal options is a better option because it gives a chance to rest established players like Sano and Donaldson. It creates more opportunity for younger players who are ready to be called. I don’t want Rooker and Larnach to sit on the bench. It is also more cost effective. I loved the Nelson Cruz years but last year should be the last.
    • mikelink45, DocBauer, rdehring and 1 other like this

Cruz. I don't like the idea of signing long term DH only contracts unless you're getting Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz. And I don't think Ozuna is either of those guys. And while he can technically play the OF, so can I. You can put me out there, but I wouldn't be helping the team. Ozuna is a DH only moving forward and I just don't think he can replicate his 2020 stats for full years moving forward.

 

Cruz is likely not a 162 game DH this year even. I think his end of the year slump was caused largely by his ailing knee, but as you get into your 40s you don't become less likely to have joint pain. I think he still has a good year in him and some classic Boom Stick stretches where he can carry the offense, but don't think I'd pencil him in for all 162. But he's still useful to have in the lineup and in the clubhouse on a 1 year deal. 

 

Part of his usefulness is that counting on the young guys to come up and replicate anywhere close to his numbers, or even provide above league average DH numbers, is not a smart plan going into a year you're looking to contend. Rooker has never put up Cruz like numbers in the minors so why would we think he'd suddenly do it in the majors? He looked really good for a week in the majors, but that literally means nothing. The league is going to have scouting reports on him now and he's going to have to adjust from the jump this year.

 

It's time for the young guys to start getting their chances, but don't do it without a safety net. Cruz provides a nice 1 year (throw in an option year again if he really wants it) safety net for the kids. He can get the majority of the DH ABs as long as he's proving to be useful while also helping mentor the young kids. Cruz and Donaldson are both professional hitters who have shown they're more than willing to work with the young guys and disseminate the wisdom that have helped them both produce at very high levels. Put Cruz in the DH spot for 2021, but give him some regular rest while cycling other guys through to keep him as healthy as he can at 41 years old and getting everyone who needs/disserves them regular ABs. Cruz is the perfect veteran safety net as the team works to contend while continuing to look to be competitive for the years to come.

    • DocBauer, rdehring and Doctor Gast like this

I've said it elsewhere on this site, but I think it's never a good idea to sign a DH to a long-term contract. A short-term deal locks down an effective bat for the roster but offers long-term flexibility with how you use the full 25+ roster over a few years.

 

There are always exceptions of course, but a David Ortiz only comes around so often (fortunately).

    • DocBauer and rdehring like this
So, regarding Cruz and his natural and normal decline.
He had trouble last year especially late. The knee was part of it. The reason we don't see any hitter doing well near or in the 40's (with very rare exception) is usually vision. The eyes ability to change focus hits the wall around that time. I think he's hit that wall. Just won't be able to consistently focus well enough on pitches with movement and speed. I say use internal options and spend on a starter, a couple of relievers and the utility guy or a new shortstop.
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Cap'n Piranha
Jan 11 2021 11:37 AM

 

Cruz. I don't like the idea of signing long term DH only contracts unless you're getting Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz. And I don't think Ozuna is either of those guys. And while he can technically play the OF, so can I. You can put me out there, but I wouldn't be helping the team. Ozuna is a DH only moving forward and I just don't think he can replicate his 2020 stats for full years moving forward.

 

Cruz is likely not a 162 game DH this year even. I think his end of the year slump was caused largely by his ailing knee, but as you get into your 40s you don't become less likely to have joint pain. I think he still has a good year in him and some classic Boom Stick stretches where he can carry the offense, but don't think I'd pencil him in for all 162. But he's still useful to have in the lineup and in the clubhouse on a 1 year deal. 

 

Part of his usefulness is that counting on the young guys to come up and replicate anywhere close to his numbers, or even provide above league average DH numbers, is not a smart plan going into a year you're looking to contend. Rooker has never put up Cruz like numbers in the minors so why would we think he'd suddenly do it in the majors? He looked really good for a week in the majors, but that literally means nothing. The league is going to have scouting reports on him now and he's going to have to adjust from the jump this year.

 

It's time for the young guys to start getting their chances, but don't do it without a safety net. Cruz provides a nice 1 year (throw in an option year again if he really wants it) safety net for the kids. He can get the majority of the DH ABs as long as he's proving to be useful while also helping mentor the young kids. Cruz and Donaldson are both professional hitters who have shown they're more than willing to work with the young guys and disseminate the wisdom that have helped them both produce at very high levels. Put Cruz in the DH spot for 2021, but give him some regular rest while cycling other guys through to keep him as healthy as he can at 41 years old and getting everyone who needs/disserves them regular ABs. Cruz is the perfect veteran safety net as the team works to contend while continuing to look to be competitive for the years to come.

 

In his age 24 season (2019), Rooker OPS'd .933 at AAA.In his age 24 season (2004), Cruz OPS'd .989 in A+, and .919 at AA.Based on this, Rooker would appear to be more advanced than Cruz at a similar point in their careers--why would we be so quick to assume Rooker can't possibly come close to Cruz' production?This is not to say I think he well--I am reasonably certain Nelson Cruz will put up better numbers in 2021 than Rooker.Will those numbers be far enough better to offset the extra millions Cruz will earn, and the decreased flexibility the Twins will have to endure?

    • rdehring, Heiny and heresthething like this
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yeahyabetcha
Jan 11 2021 12:29 PM
Neither
    • rdehring likes this

 

In his age 24 season (2019), Rooker OPS'd .933 at AAA.In his age 24 season (2004), Cruz OPS'd .989 in A+, and .919 at AA.Based on this, Rooker would appear to be more advanced than Cruz at a similar point in their careers--why would we be so quick to assume Rooker can't possibly come close to Cruz' production?This is not to say I think he well--I am reasonably certain Nelson Cruz will put up better numbers in 2021 than Rooker.Will those numbers be far enough better to offset the extra millions Cruz will earn, and the decreased flexibility the Twins will have to endure?

I think the flexibility Rooker brings is highly overstated. He's a negative defensive asset at a corner OF spot or 1B. He brings nothing defensively beyond being able to stand him out there. Better than Cruz, but not something that outweighs the offensive difference in any meaningful way.

 

Cruz also debuted in the majors at age 24 (where he OPSed .829 if that's the only stat you want to use). That's a super small sample size and worse than Rooker's very small sample size in his age 25 debut. But Cruz's career numbers in the majors (including his very rough first few years) are .278/.347/.529/.876 with a 133 OPS+ and 22% career K rate. Rooker in the minors has slashed .267/.357/.505/.861 with 28% K rate (35% at AAA in that .933 OPS season). Thinking he's going to come into the majors and match Cruz's career numbers is a stretch. Thinking he can come up and match Cruz's numbers from the last 2 years is really out there. Stranger things have happened, but the point of my post is that expecting any of those kids, or combination of them, to come up and do what Cruz has done is bad team building. Especially now that the teams know Rooker will likely be around and will have legit scouting reports on him. 

 

If you're legitimately attempting to win a WS you don't come into the season relying on multiple rookies to replace your .308/.394/.626/1.020 168 OPS+ superstar bat. You also don't bank on that bat repeating those numbers at the age of 41. Thus the combination of the rookies and old guy that I suggested. Instead of suggesting, or hoping, a rookie with a sky high minor league K rate will come into the majors and increase his productivity across the board.

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Major League Ready
Jan 11 2021 01:15 PM

 

In his age 24 season (2019), Rooker OPS'd .933 at AAA.In his age 24 season (2004), Cruz OPS'd .989 in A+, and .919 at AA.Based on this, Rooker would appear to be more advanced than Cruz at a similar point in their careers--why would we be so quick to assume Rooker can't possibly come close to Cruz' production?This is not to say I think he well--I am reasonably certain Nelson Cruz will put up better numbers in 2021 than Rooker.Will those numbers be far enough better to offset the extra millions Cruz will earn, and the decreased flexibility the Twins will have to endure?

 

It's really hard to compare anyone to Cruz in this context. Cruz was very good until he turned 35 when he became phenomenal. I doubt there has ever been a player that improved their career stats between the age 35-40. Trying to compare Rooker is hard to do. Does anyone remember the scene in Money Ball when Billy Beane explains to the staff they can't think in terms of replacing Giambi with one player. I think that applies here. It's not if we can replace him. Can we build a better team by investing elsewhere?

    • DocBauer, rdehring and Heiny like this

My preference in order would be:

1. Neither - rotate internal options

2. Ozuna

3. Cruz

 

I think we have more than enough hitters internally that can be (maybe even NEED to be) rotated through the lineup regularly to fill the DH spot. Ozuna isn't locked into DH only, he can also play outfield, I would guess could probably even play 1B. We've beaten the odds on Cruz's production falling off a cliff the past two years, let's be happy with that and move on instead of rolling the dice one more time against even steeper odds. Also, I keep seeing people excuse Cruz's declined performance at the end of last year with "he had a sore knee." Well, that's what happens when you're 40+ years old. You wake up in the morning with a sore knee for no apparent reason. Or a sore back, or neck, or shoulder, or wrist, or...

My choices -

  • Rooker
  • Larnach
  • Whoever we are resting

Spend the money on a pitcher.  

    • Cap'n Piranha, Major League Ready, rdehring and 1 other like this

The article limits the options to these two.I would say Cruz.That is because it is for 1 year.We have options to fill similar rolls in our systems.I would not want to clog that with a big deal for Ozuna, who may never live up to contract.His up and down seasons scare me, and even more when his best season was on a short contract season.He really only had 2 outlying seasons of high OPS.You list he had three over .775, and one of those was only .800, not like the over .900 of the other two.  

 

The big question, do you think for 18 mil a year for three years worth his expected numbers over what Rooker or Larnach would be expected?It is not always what the player can do for the price, but will the cost difference be worth what they would do compared to likely replacement.Cost of Rooker or Larnach will be for 2 years min 17 mil less, and for third year most likely at least 15 mill less.Can you spend that money each year on say a starting pitcher or another postion?  

 

To clarify why I said 3 years is with Cruz to 1 year the 3 years is the difference of the contracts. 

    • DocBauer and Heiny like this
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tony&rodney
Jan 11 2021 05:40 PM

Cruz is a victim of his own magnificence. A normal 40 year old former MLB star plays amateur ball where reduced skills are the norm. Cruz has been terrific and if he was even 35 the discussions would be totally different. But he isn't and age happens.

All of the arguments are well put and it does seem like the internal options are great, but wouldn't it make some sense to see Nelson Cruz again this coming summer. I can even accept if he is injured or suddenly cannot Boom. I'm of the mind to offer $15-17 million for this year with some option that is at the team's discretion and might include a path into coaching.  

Nelson Cruz is not even the shadow of Harmon Killebrew but letting the Killer go to Kansas City was the single worst mistake in franchise history. The Twins can afford to take a swig of Cruz in '21. Who knows, he may once again forget how old he is and do his little tip-toe jog around the bases enough to keeping us all smiling at the absurdity of it all.

    • Heiny likes this
Absolute no to Ozuna. He's shown none of the consistency Cruz has shown. Further, we are talking about a long term commitment, which I am against. I support the DH, always have, for many reasons, but you just don't LOCK UP a DH unless he's a special bat.

I think Rooker is going to be an OK player. Maybe even a good one, I think Kirilloff is going to be great. I think Larnach is also going to be good to great, which is why I hope any trade the Twins MIGHT make doesn't include AK OR Larnach. Those two could be our corner OF for years to come, or a combination of 1B and OF.

Why, unless a trade opportunity came our way would we part with either?

Cruz for 1yr makes so much sense for both sides it's almost ridiculous it hasn t happened yet. But I get it.

But as great as Cruz has been, If you want to buy into MLB TRADERUMORS, Brantley could be had for the same projected salary or less and could actually play the OF giving the roster flexibility.

OR, you could sign one of the top 3 SS options, move Polanco to super utility, STILL sign an 11th man amongst the many options available, and still sign Bradley or Pillar for OF depth and versatility to go along with a SP and possible RP move and forgo a direct DH signing.

Of course, IF you buy in to a $135-140M payroll, all bets are off. You can STILL sign or trade for a SP, potentially bring in an 11th man AND another solid BP arm and STILL bring in Cruz or Brantley.

I believe the Dirty Sox are about $120M right now. They MIGHT make a move or two to augment their roster and push it it $130M. Do the Twins actually do less than that?

No to Ozuna long term because there is so much talent on hand. Yes to Cruz on the short hand to let the roster and prospects come up and play.

YES to a signin of Bradley or Pillar on the cheap to fill out the OF and DH spot with Kirilloff and Rooker and everyone else on hand.
    • rdehring likes this
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Doctor Gast
Jan 12 2021 06:06 AM

Taking things as face value, there's no doubt we shouldn't invest in a FA DH, including Cruz. We can spend more wisely elsewhere & IMO thatrotating at DH is more advantageous& frees up an extra roster spot. But w/ Cruz there is a magical chemistry, a mutual bond that goes beyond stats. I believe Cruz still has at least one more good year in him. In 2019 Cruz ruptured his wrist & we thought he was finished but he came back, he has always came back. He knows his body & what needs to be done to maintain it's maximum level.

In this late time IMO they won't bring in the universal DH. It`s time for FO to offer a more reasonable offer. 

    • DocBauer and rdehring like this
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Cap'n Piranha
Jan 12 2021 11:05 AM

 

It's really hard to compare anyone to Cruz in this context. Cruz was very good until he turned 35 when he became phenomenal. I doubt there has ever been a player that improved their career stats between the age 35-40. Trying to compare Rooker is hard to do. Does anyone remember the scene in Money Ball when Billy Beane explains to the staff they can't think in terms of replacing Giambi with one player. I think that applies here. It's not if we can replace him. Can we build a better team by investing elsewhere?

 

I pretty much agree with this--as I stated, I doubt Rooker will be as good as Cruz in 2021.I very much doubt that Rooker will have anywhere near the career Cruz has; I would be beyond shocked to be talking about Brent Rooker, Borderline Hall of Famer in 2035.

 

That said, I tend to agree with the philosophy behind your Giambi reference.While Cruz would probably be somewhere around .290/.370/.550 in 2021, and Rooker more like .250/.310/.475, I wonder if the $14M you save by not having Cruz, in addition to the ability to give other players "half-days" by playing them at DH are more valuable than the 100 or so points of OPS you give up with Rooker.Particularly when taking into consideration that Rooker has very little downside, while Cruz has massive downside.

 

To be perfectly honest, I think my ideal scenario is to sign Brantley, and go Arraez Brantley 1-2 in the lineup.You can give each of your outfielders one day completely off every week, and one day at DH every other week, thereby keeping all of them fresh through the season.Your OBP at the top of the lineup becomes great, especially if you put Donaldson third, and you can then tap into power with Sano, Kepler, and Rooker in the 4-6 spots.That puts Buxton, Polanco (or a new SS), and Garver/Jeffers at the bottom of your lineup--that's a pretty dang good bottom three, particularly if Garver is closer to his 2019 form.

    • Major League Ready and DocBauer like this
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tony&rodney
Jan 15 2021 05:34 PM

The dollars direct the team. The Twins can add Kluber and Adrianza to sit around $110 million.

They can add Cruz if they are somewhere near $120+ million for the roster.

Where life gets interesting is if the Twins are open to a payroll between $130-155 million.

I cannot fathom a scenario where the Twins sign Ozuna because they are loaded with corner bats and players to rotate through the DH position. Nelson Cruz is a short term cost and his past production warrants another look, not because the team owes him but because he has been consistently good. While there is some evidence of decline, it is scant and Cruz still compares more than favorably with all other options. A roster of 26 also affords a team to carry a player like Cruz who only carries a bat.

At this time, with this team - no to Ozuna.