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Cubs interested in Luis Arraez?

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David Price? Eovaldi?

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Front Page: Every Team Wants Zack Wheeler

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Front Page: Fears of White Sox Competency Alarm Local Fans

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:05 PM
The surprising hot stove activity of the Chicago White Sox--signing Yasmani Grendal, their rumored pursuit of Zach Wheeler--is causing so...
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Exploring Five Twins Extension Candidates

Last off-season, there were plenty of moves that helped the club to a record-breaking season, but the two most important deals might have been signing Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to long-term extensions. Both players had career years, and each is under team control through a minimum of 2024.

Are there other members of the core that could be signed to extensions this winter?
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
5. Eddie Rosario
2019 Season (137 Games): .800 OPS, 106 OPS+, 1.6 WAR
So far this off-season, there has been talk of trading Rosario to upgrade the pitching staff. Unfortunately, Twins fans might value Rosario more than he is actually worth. As a 28-year old, he might fit the definition of a replacement level player and Minnesota has other young outfielders working their way to Target Field. He is under team control for the next two seasons so an extension beyond those years seems improbable.

4. Taylor Rogers
2019 Season (60 Games): 176 ERA+, 2.85 FIP, 2.5 WAR
Rogers was one of the team’s most valuable pitchers last season, especially while other parts of the bullpen were struggling. He will be arbitration eligible this winter and he can’t become a free agent until the 2023 off-season at which point he would be 31-years old. Would Minnesota be willing to buy out his remaining arbitration years so they could add some years of team control? It seems more likely for the Twins to explore an extension after the 2020 campaign to see if Rogers can continue his bullpen dominance.

3. Byron Buxton
2019 Season (87 Games): .827 OPS, 114 OPS+, 3.1 WAR
There has only been one big-league season where Buxton has logged more than 92 games played. In fact, the last two seasons he has been limited to 115 total games and he might have been denied a September call-up. Minnesota could look to avoid a Kris Bryant situation with Buxton by offering him an extension now. Buxton’s value could be hard to put a number on at this point because he showed some offensive improvement when he was on the field last year. He can reach free agency in 2023.

2. Miguel Sano
2019 Season (105 Games): .923 OPS, 138 OPS+, 3.1 WAR
Like Rosario, Sano is closer to free agency than the others on this list. He started last season recovering from a freak off-season injury before settling in nicely to a career-high OPS. There are some obvious flaws on the defensive side of the ball, but he could get more time at first base and designated hitter in the years ahead. Nelson Cruz’s mentorship helped Sano and that duo will be able to collaborate again in 2020. It’s scary to think what that could mean if Sano can play more than 105 games.

1. Jose Berrios
2019 Season (32 Games): 124 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 3.3 WAR
Berrios seems the most likely candidate to receive an extension, especially after his 2019 season. Minnesota’s front office already approached Berrios last off-season and he turned down the contract offer. Betting on himself might have been the right choice. “Every player wants to sign a multiyear deal, but we know it’s a business,” Berrios told the Star Tribune last spring. “I have to manage my business, too. … We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year.” Berrios has built quite the resume and the Twins are going to want to keep him long-term.

Will any of these players sign extensions this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.


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38 Comments

I would definitely try to extend Garver at this point as well

 

 

 

 

We had no one in our system this year that would have out produced Eddie. 

 

Not even Kirilloff?

 

/sarcasm...

well... 0 fWAR = replacement player... 1.2 is above that.. and yes I know that a replacement player isn't exactly 0.
 
I also know said player is somewhat mythical.  
 
We had no one in our system this year that would have out produced Eddie.


Small sample size but Cave has the same OPS as Eddie and is probably a better defender in left than Eddie. Cave also had 8 dingers in his small number of a bats as well so he has some power. Not a great stretch for him to replace Eddie with those numbers.
    • Mike Sixel and beckmt like this
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Kelly Vance
Nov 07 2019 06:49 PM

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello. 

 

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.

Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers.I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota.Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers. 

 

So your comment that most Twins fans over value Rosie's contribution.... sorry. That is Fake News. And more than a little condescending. 

 

But anyways,

 

 

I'd extend Buck, Sano, and Jose. These guys are special. I'd consider extending Rosie too. But we DO have corner OF guys about to break in. 

 

I'd try to teach Taylor a new pitch and think of converting him to a starter. He has the mound presence and stamina to be a #1 or #2 starter. Seriously, you want to pull a rabbit out of a hat, make Taylor another Grienke. 

 

I'd wait on Garver. Catchers are tough to project, given the challenges of the position. 

 

And I'd ask Cruz to sign on for another year. 

    • brvama likes this
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yarnivek1972
Nov 07 2019 07:11 PM

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello.

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.
Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers. I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota. Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers.

So your comment that most Twins fans over value Rosie's contribution.... sorry. That is Fake News. And more than a little condescending.

But anyways,


I'd extend Buck, Sano, and Jose. These guys are special. I'd consider extending Rosie too. But we DO have corner OF guys about to break in.

I'd try to teach Taylor a new pitch and think of converting him to a starter. He has the mound presence and stamina to be a #1 or #2 starter. Seriously, you want to pull a rabbit out of a hat, make Taylor another Grienke.

I'd wait on Garver. Catchers are tough to project, given the challenges of the position.

And I'd ask Cruz to sign on for another year.


Two of the three finalists had over 40 HR. Both were also gold glove finalists. The third had roughly the same number of HR and RBI. But of course Marcus Semien is a shortstop. Also a gold glove finalist.

Eddie Rosario’s 32 HR barely cracked the top 40 in MLB.
    • Mike Sixel, Twins33, beckmt and 4 others like this

 

I don't remotely trust the dWAR grades for Rosario. In 2017 and in 2019, dWAR graded him at Josh Willingham and Delmon Young levels. In 2018, they graded him average. Fangrapshs defensive valuations were slightly different but followed the same pattern - horrible in 17 and 19, better in 18. What was the big difference in those years? An elite CF was missing in 18. 

 

An article a while back (either on fangraphs or BP?) noted a problem with defensive calculations when a team had three really good defenders. One of the OFers would get negative grades because the other OFers took over. I think this is what is happening to Rosario - in 17 and 19 he made 66 and 63 'out of zone' plays. In 18, in about 100-200 fewer innings, he made 77 OOZ plays. Having Buxton and Kepler in center field has hurt him but he's a solid enough OFer. 

Very nice - I agree completely.In an era when Robbie Grossman is considered for the Gold Glove I do not want to hear about defensive metrics.

 

 

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello. 

 

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.

Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers.I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota.Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers.  

 

Look, I like Rosario but there simply no way you can look at his numbers as being "MVP candidate numbers". Mike Trout had 1/3 more HR in roughly the same amount of games with nearly 140 additional points in OBP and nearly 150 pts in SLG%. (while playing far superior defense at a much tougher position) That's an MVP season...and there's decent odds he loses out this year to Bregman.

 

Rosario wasn't even one of the top three hitters on his own team this year, even taking defense completely out of it. He's a useful player, has at times been a good player, and the totality of his contributions (including staying healthy, which is a valuable skill) have been good for the Twins but there's simply no way he's an MVP candidate.

 

 

    • Mike Sixel, Twins33, beckmt and 1 other like this
#1 Berrios: So much talent and so much potential. People forget how young he still is. Home grown, power arms with #1 potential are rare.

#2 Sano: People also forget how young he is as well. While we can debate endlessly, and have, as to his defensive merits at 3B, or how long he can stay there, his bat PLAYS!

#3 Buxton: Healthy all of last season, I'd have him #2. Does he bet on himself still being the next Mays, Griffey Jr or Trout? Or does he view career/life in a more pragmatic fashion and realize he may be better off with guaranteed money on a still good deal vs looking/hoping for some mega contract?

#4 Rogers: Guy is fantastic and might even get better. But with control for a few more years, I'd hold off until at least next season. There is just no need to rush.

#5 Rosario: I am a HUGE Rosario fan. I also agree some of the defensive numbers and opinions don't accurately reflect his full ability. I also object that his production is somehow easily replaceable. Production is production. The one thing that has held him back, slightly, is a couple of injuries that slowed him a bit. I really want him around. But let's be honest, unless moved, Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker and Raley are all 4 really, really interesting bats that could be ready over the next year plus. Just don't think I'd extend him at this point. But I sure wouldn't be disappointed if they did.
    • brvama and Kelly Vance like this
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Kelly Vance
Nov 07 2019 08:06 PM

 

Two of the three finalists had over 40 HR. Both were also gold glove finalists. The third had roughly the same number of HR and RBI. But of course Marcus Semien is a shortstop. Also a gold glove finalist.

Eddie Rosario’s 32 HR barely cracked the top 40 in MLB.

By Twins standards it is a great season. Rosie's critics are ungrateful. Period. 

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Kelly Vance
Nov 07 2019 08:09 PM

 

Look, I like Rosario but there simply no way you can look at his numbers as being "MVP candidate numbers". Mike Trout had 1/3 more HR in roughly the same amount of games with nearly 140 additional points in OBP and nearly 150 pts in SLG%. (while playing far superior defense at a much tougher position) That's an MVP season...and there's decent odds he loses out this year to Bregman.

 

Rosario wasn't even one of the top three hitters on his own team this year, even taking defense completely out of it. He's a useful player, has at times been a good player, and the totality of his contributions (including staying healthy, which is a valuable skill) have been good for the Twins but there's simply no way he's an MVP candidate.

I was speaking historically, not just for the year of the Bombas.109 RBIs ain't nothing. 

 

By Twins standards it is a great season. Rosie's critics are ungrateful. Period. 

 

Rosario's critics compare his numbers to all the other corner OFers, then look at his likely cost the next two years, and say he shouldn't be extended. NO ONE is saying cut him. No one is saying he's a bad player. But if you look at his numbers, all of his numbers, he's just not all that good compared to other corner OFers, and he'll be expensive starting this year. 

    • Twins33, beckmt, Dman and 2 others like this

And that is also why when someone comes a callin for one of those prospects and is willing to give up something of value for them, you don't clench them with such a tight fist.

I like Rosario and feel he should be kept here until he reaches free agency. That said, he is pretty much Jacque Jones and I kind of feel he should be treated the same way Jacque was. Pay him what he's worth when he's here, but when its time to part way, its time.

I agree with this unless he turns a corner finding some overall discipline in his game. It's possible he has a big year. He's not too old to improve. Can you imagine what he could do with those quick hands if he could coax more strikes? A big thing with him is staying healthy. If Buxton could find a little durability then maybe the Twins wouldn't have to play Rosie when he's dinged up.

Rosario is a gamer and does very good things (along with some bonehead plays).My issue is the league viewpoint of Rosario and when the league is walking Cruz to pitch to him, this speaks volumes to me.


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