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Article: Twins Trying to Sustain Excellence

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:41 AM
If you’re feeling a bit underwhelmed at the close of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, I’m sure you’re not the only Minnesota Twins fan i...
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Article: Official Rule 5 Draft Day Thread

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 11:51 PM
The Winter Meetings in Las Vegas have been fairly quiet against in 2018. Certainly there are meetings, but there haven't been a lot of si...
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Buxton: "Pissed" at Twins for No Call-Up Decision...

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:03 PM
According to the Star Tribune, Byron Buxton is displeased with the Twins after not being called up in September of 2018. According to Byr...
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Non-Twins Off-season news, tidbits and transactions

Other Baseball Yesterday, 11:03 PM
We had a thread for items around the baseball world that were worth sharing but not worth a thread of their own. Now that the 2018 season...
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Derek Falvey Interview on 1500 ESPN

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:41 AM
Falvey discusses Sano, payroll, etc. http://www.1500espn....an-mackey-judd/
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Emptying the Notebook: Happ, Dipoto, Boras and Blueprints

The Twins are reportedly interested in J.A. Happ, which may or not really mean anything at all. We can assume the Twins are interested in a lot of guys, right? Welcome to the offseason!

There are some other rumblings coming out of the GM Meetings, as well as other happenings in the baseball world that are worth turning your attention to. Let’s get to it ...
Image courtesy of © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
What are your thoughts on J.A. Happ?

Happ has been a great starting pitcher over the past four seasons, posting a 3.48 ERA (121 ERA+) and 1.21 WHIP for the Mariners, Pirates, Blue Jays and Yankees. The problem is that means he’s good enough to command a multi-year deal, though he’s already 36-years-old. The Twins could use a left-handed starting pitcher, and Happ would also add some experience and leadership.

MLB Trade Rumors had Happ has their No. 9 free agent and predicted he'll receive a three-year, $48 million deal (from the Angels) while FanGraphs had him ranked 21st and projected a two-year $28 million.

There were some rumblings of a Seattle fire sale brewing, but GM Jerry Dipoto downplayed that possibility, telling MLB.com “we're not looking to rip our club down. We're just too talented to do that.” Dipoto being Dipoto, he went ahead and made a deal tonight, sending catcher Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay for outfielder Mallex Smith. This is a situation worth keeping an eye on, a the M’s have pieces on their pitching staff and infield that could represent upgrades for the Twins.

High-profile agent Scott Boras name dropped the Twins, and not in a favorable manner.

OK. The Twins are a lower-market payroll team and attendance isn’t booming, but of all the teams you’re gonna take a cheap shot at Minnesota? Really? Per USA Today, the Twins had the 16th-highest Opening Day payroll and per ESPN they were 20th in attendance. Maybe Scott should stick to marketing his clients instead of shooting off super lame jokes.

Of course, it’s when his clients arrive when Twins fans are really gonna show up.


Earlier this week, Nick shared his offseason blueprint that envisioned the Twins as big spenders. The site has been booming with blueprints, as both the forums and the blog section have been active. Grab a copy of the Offseason Handbook for whatever price you feel is appropriate and put together your own blueprint today.

Matt Eddy of Baseball America shared a list of 520 minor league free agents. One name that really jumped out to me was Dilson Herrera. He’s a 24-year-old second baseman who has some MLB time (108 games) with the Mets and Reds. Herrera has a .290/.349/.461 (.809 OPS) batting line in 1,305 plate appearances in Triple A. The Twins will certainly aim higher in their search for a second baseman, but Herrera is an interesting fallback option.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that it won’t be too long before the Twins hear final word on Joe Mauer’s future.

Also over at The Athletic, Jim Bowdenshared five potential landing spots for J.T. Realmuto, should the Marlins decide to deal him. Spoiler alert! Twins are not listed.

Kennys Vargas signed with Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines.

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79 Comments

 

The Twins don’t have to choose between signing Machado, or Marwin, Murphy and Miller.

They can do all four.

 

Yes they could. I stopped at 3 because it was (in my opinion) an equivalent price for what Machado would cost and it was also the point that MLR was trying to make. 

 

We can keep going along those same lines. If the Twins have the money to spend on Machado, Marwin, Murphy and Miller. They would also have the money to spend, Marwin, Murphy, Miller, McCutchen, Moustakas and Morton. 

 

This is going to be important to me personally because I'm trying to avoid any scenerio that involves saying... OK Sano and Buxton... here is the starting job and if you fail... we have Motter to turn to.

 

I'd rather see the Twins sign Marwin, Murphy, Miller, McCutchen, Moustakas and Morton to plug all the holes. 

 

Disclaimer: This is for example purposes, I don't believe that the Twins will sign 6 free agents this year. 

 

BTW... If you come back with that the Twins could sign Marwin, Murphy, Miller, McCtuchen, Moustakas and Morton plus Machado. I'm just letting you know that at some point in time... I'm going to run out of options that start with "m".:)

 

 

    • USAFChief likes this
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Major League Ready
Nov 10 2018 10:59 AM

 

The Twins don’t have to choose between signing Machado, or Marwin, Murphy and Miller.

They can do all four.

 

I would have no problem with these signing with perhaps the exception of Miller because I don't know how realistic it is to expect him to come back to close to his past performance. If Buxton and Sano both bounce back and all 4 FAs perform at out above expectation these adds would get us close to the top teams. The Depth Charts projection is 10.1 wins. Of course, this would be the gain if they were replacing replacement level players but that’s not the case. It's a net add of 5-6 wins?

 

That gets us to 82 wins so we would need another 12-14 wins from Buxton/Sano and the other positions combined. The odds of that all working out are about the same as us getting Machado but it would not hurt us unless we are paying #35M/tr Machado until he is 38. Machado is a great long-term add and Marwin's flexibility should be an asset for as long as he is here. Murphy is a good 2 year placeholder. I see Miller as a risk but I don't have enough info to have a strong opinion.

 

5.2 Machado
1.7 Gonzalez
2.5 Murphy
0.7 Miller
----
10.1

    • Riverbrian likes this

 

I would have no problem with these signing with perhaps the exception of Miller because I don't know how realistic it is to expect him to come back to close to his past performance. 

 

C'mon Man... You are not even considering the fact that his name starts with "M"!:)

WAR is goofy and it hides too much important information. It only takes a couple of seconds to a couple of minutes to figure out what "sticks out" about a player, be it positive or negative. You can't do this with WAR.

 

What makes it worse is there are different algorithms. Baseball Prospectus's WAR(P) seems like utter nonsense, and Fangraphs' WAR seems inflated 30-40% of the time. Baseball Reference's WAR is the most consistent, though it slightly understates player value in my opinion. But even then, bWAR usually the last stat I look at when I'm analyzing a player....


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by Tom Froemming , 20 Nov 2018
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