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2020 Twins Blueprint Tool - Early Version

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HOME RUN KINGS!

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With 3 homers today and the Yankees only having 1, the Twins are HOME RUN CHAMPS! Wouldn't have thought it was possible the other day whe...
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Make it rain up in here, Derek.   http://www.startribu...rket/562665252/
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DET 5, MIN 3: Is There Anything Left?

It’s easy to forget just how good Ervin Santana was for the 2017 Minnesota Twins. He was an All-Star, finished fifth in the American League in both ERA and WHIP. He was seventh in Cy Young Award voting. Ervin made his fourth start of this season, and saw his ERA jump to 6.53.
Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Ervin Santana: 44 Game Score, 6.0 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 5 K, 2 BB, 58.5% strikes (55 of 94 pitches)
Multi-Hit Games: Ehire Adrianza (3-for-4, 2B) Jorge Polanco (2-for-4, 2B), Logan Forsythe (2-for-4), Jake Cave (2-for-4, 2B)
WPA of 0.1 or higher: Forsythe .153
WPA of -0.1 or lower: Kepler -.101, Morrison -.129, Mauer -.165 Santana -.223
Attached Image: WinChart810.png
Santana topped out a 90.6 mph and averaged 88.8 mph with his fastball tonight. To his credit, he was able to stay one step ahead of most batters. Ervin only allowed three hits over his six innings of work, but two of them came in the form of two-run homers.

It’s actually been impressive to see Ervin execute with diminished stuff, in sort of a depressing way. He should be getting clobbered. Like bounced outta the game in the second inning clobbered.

The lineup certainly could have executed better. The Twins outhit the Tigers 10-3, but were only 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position. Detroit even committed two errors, but the Twins couldn’t capitalize.

It’s pretty fun to see what Niko Goodrum is doing with Detroit. He hit his 11th home run of the season tonight and has a .720 OPS.

After the game, Santana did what you'd expect a professional veteran ballplayer to do. He took responsibility for his shortcomings and ... oh wait, no, he didn't. Jump head to about the 1:20 mark on this postgame interview:

My take: It's not like Ervin is going on a rampage here, but that's not his style. Still, I say just let him go. Honestly. I'm already wondering if this finger injury has derailed his career, he's certainly not getting his $14 million option picked up and now he's taking shots at the front office.

Even worse, by saying "it’s difficult to play without our good pieces" Santana is being disrespectful to his new teammates who've joined the club in the wake of those players leaving. Just end it now, there are plenty of other starting pitchers dying to get an opportunity.

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen810.png
AL Central Standings
CLE 64-50
MIN 53-62 (-11.5)
DET 48-68 (-17)
CHW 41-73 (-23)
KC 35-79 (-29)

Next Three Game
Sat at DET, 5:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Francisco Liriano
Sun at DET, 12:10 pm CT: Kohl Stewart vs. Matt Boyd
Mon: Off
Tue vs. PIT, 7:10 pm CT: TBD vs. Jameson Taillon

Last Three Games
LE 5, MIN 4: Walks and a Walk-Off
CLE 5, MIN 2: Cleveland Prevails on Lindor Walk-Off Homer
MIN 3, CLE 2: Mitch Garver Makes it Rain


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116 Comments

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Tom Froemming
Aug 11 2018 08:05 PM

 

 

We Most of us want them to be elite baseball players competing against the best baseball players in the world and if they are not we call for their dismissal. But even that isn't good enough.

 

HA! I see what you did there, lol :)

    • Riverbrian likes this
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Aug 11 2018 08:32 PM

... you are being asked to accept reality. And to stop trolling every damn thread with your "So you're saying there's a chance!" logic and "woe is us!" regret over a lost season. ...

"Going on hoping against all data and probability"

I'm not trolling, and not singling you out, I just genuinely have no idea what to do with comments like this. I suppose I could let them go unanswered, but answering them could also provide an educating opportunity too, for people who just aren't aware or are new to following baseball. Who the hell knows. Most important to me is I don't want fans to think comebacks don't happen or that pennant races can't be exciting.

2015: Texas Rangers were 8.0 GB in division on July 27, third place in West, behind the Twins in the Wild Card, went ahead and traded for Cole Hamels, won division.

2009: Minnesota Twins were 7.0 GB trailing Detroit in September.

2007: Colorado Rockies epic win streak.

We don't see this sort of thing every season, but really, the examples are numerous.

Did the Twins have a chance? Yeah, of course they did.

MONDAY

 

Wife: How was work today Honey?

 

Husband: I had a blast. Josh was digging through his desk and found some bottle rockets from like 3 years ago. We went out back and shot them off at lunch. They were so old and unpredictable. Some of them didn't explode and some of them went off immediately after lighting it. I hit a squirrel with one of them. 

 

Wife: You did that at work?

 

Husband: Yes... Umm... At lunch. 

 

Wife: What were you thinking... Did your boss know?

 

Husband: We told him about it... he was wondering why we were laughing. 

 

Wife: Oh that's great. How Stupid can you be? 

 

Husband: He didn't care... We are OK... Everyone is OK... Besides the squirrel... he kinda limped off. 

 

Wife: You gotta quit being so stupid. Be a professional... Care what people think of you!!! God you are an idiot. 

 

TUESDAY

 

Wife: How was work today Honey? 

 

Husband: We wrapped up the Brunswick Bowling Ball Account... High Five!!!. I'm getting a nice commission check on that one... Looks like we can afford that trip to Jamaica. 

 

Wife: That's fantastic. 

 

Husband: Yeah... I worked for a month on that account. I must have had about 15 lunches and meetings with Andrea just to get that one closed. 

 

Wife: Who's Andrea?

 

Husband: She the director of

 

Wife: What does she look like? 

 

Husband: She's umm... I don't know... She's

 

Wife: Yeah I bet she is. 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Wife: Hi Honey... How was work today. 

 

Husband: Fine

 

Wife: Are you reading from a piece of paper. 

 

Husband: Yeah... I got this from the new PR guy that I hired to help me with the answers to your questions. 

 

Wife: What?

 

Husband: Yeah... I used the money from the commission check and hired a PR guy. You are always getting mad at me. 

 

Wife: That money was for Jamaica!

 

Husband: Hold on... He gave me an answer for that one. Hold on... I might have left it in the car. I'll be right back. 

 

 

 

 

 

    • ashbury and glunn like this
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KirbyDome89
Aug 11 2018 09:15 PM

 

But he didn't acknowledge any of those things. He chose to only acknowledge the side of the coin that points the finger at the FO.

Blaming the FO for selling at 10 games back is just as unreasonable as blaming Santana for his injury timeline.

Again, I don't necessarily agree with Tom, because I don't expect a guy to use ration over emotion when talking about his friend, but I can see where Tom is coming from, absolutely.

The question was about his feelings regarding Rodney et al leaving. In Erv's mind they still had a chance for the division, so of course he's upset that they sold. Blaming the FO for falling 10 games under .500 is very different than blaming them for selling when you believe there's still a chance. That nuance is being ignored by hardline stances, which I'm not saying you're taking here.

 

I don't think it's a great look for Erv to say those things, but I don't mind him being candid. I can understand not liking the comments, but calling for his release is going too far IMO. 

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KirbyDome89
Aug 11 2018 09:32 PM

 

You're right that the organization and the fans aren't entitled to a debt of gratitude from Ervin. Although I'd have a higher opinion of him if he was extremely careful with his words in light of his own damaging past actions.

Agreed, I can understand falling on either side of the comments. 

I acknowledge there are flukes that happen. And I stated I don't want our decision makers relying on hope for flukes.

I don't begrudge your desire to see them compete. What I begrudge is the criticism for their decision.

In fairness, most of the guys we got in return for those traded away are being termed "lottery tickets". I have to think that our chances of making the playoffs, even now for that matter, surpass our odds of winning the lottery.

There's something to be said for not embracing a losing culture. Giving up every time the odds aren't in your favor doesn't really build character or winners, imo. Now if the guys we got move the needle, then it makes some sense. But to give up on multiple seasons for aaa filler and future rule 5 offers, not so much.

There are odds of wining, and there are pot odds. The 2 are not the same. A horse going off as a 1/9 favorite is going to be the most likely winner of a horse race, but a live long shot would still be a better bet because of value.

Less abstractly, if you bet $500 on the Twins to make the playoffs at 10-1 odds earlier in the year and I offered to buy the ticket off you at the trade deadline, you'd want an offer high enough that it actually makes a difference to you. If I offer 2 $1 scratch offs and a power ball, you hold out because for that offer, you may as well hope for the miracle.
    • ashbury likes this
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mngopherguy
Aug 12 2018 12:18 AM

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board.(Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.

    • SQUIRREL, USAFChief, Mike Sixel and 1 other like this

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board.(Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.


I pretty much agree with this. As I stated earlier, I really think it was more of an emotional response to missing his teammates and friends who he’s relied on the past few years than pointing a finger about business decisions being made, and I get that. I’m still crying over Escobar. I won’t cry over LoMo, but that wasn’t a trade, but it almost feels like a trade ... welcome to the Twins, Tyler Austin!
    • Riverbrian likes this
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Major League Ready
Aug 12 2018 06:28 AM

 

I agree, Ervin. They took away a lot of your good pieces. It's a shame. It might have been necessary, or even smart, but it's still not what I want to see my front office do...Give up. Shameful.

 

So as opposed to doing what you admit here might have been smart you would have preferred them to be dumb and NOT do what's necessary to improve the team's chances to be better in the future? Leaders do what is necessary even when it's not popular with a few people who do not understand the best thing to do for the organization. 

 

Giving up is very different than recognizing your team has had numerous injuries and the players that are not injured are under performing. If we do a position by position comparison of the teams that are contention, it requires one to stick their head very deep in the sand to understand that this team's is simply not a contender. Please feel free to prove me wrong with evidence this team is even close in a position by position comparison.

 

The old front office was often not willing to realize they did not have the talent to compete in meaningful way and they built pretenders instead of contenders. We had little chance in the playoffs last year and far less this year. Thank god the new regime looked at a 10% chance of getting to the playoffs and a 90% chance of getting our #ss kicked in the playoffs and decided it made sense to pick-up a dozen prospects instead. You say shameful, I say a demonstration of leadership and decision making that improves the chances for sustained performance.

 

 

    • ashbury and TheLeviathan like this

 

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board.(Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.

 

I agree

 

Major League Players have no reason to care about Minor League Acquisitions. Unless they are about to take their job. 

 

Jhoan Duran means nothing to him, he has no reason to check the Cedar Rapids box scores.

 

Escobar on the other hand had a locker near by and picked up a few of his grounders over the years. 

 

 

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TheLeviathan
Aug 12 2018 09:26 AM

 

In fairness, most of the guys we got in return for those traded away are being termed "lottery tickets". I have to think that our chances of making the playoffs, even now for that matter, surpass our odds of winning the lottery.

There's something to be said for not embracing a losing culture. Giving up every time the odds aren't in your favor doesn't really build character or winners, imo. Now if the guys we got move the needle, then it makes some sense. But to give up on multiple seasons for aaa filler and future rule 5 offers, not so much.

There are odds of wining, and there are pot odds. The 2 are not the same. A horse going off as a 1/9 favorite is going to be the most likely winner of a horse race, but a live long shot would still be a better bet because of value.

Less abstractly, if you bet $500 on the Twins to make the playoffs at 10-1 odds earlier in the year and I offered to buy the ticket off you at the trade deadline, you'd want an offer high enough that it actually makes a difference to you. If I offer 2 $1 scratch offs and a power ball, you hold out because for that offer, you may as well hope for the miracle.

 

Fair points, but then it comes down to hoping that they targeted the right players in their return.  

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yarnivek1972
Aug 12 2018 03:27 PM

I'm not trolling, and not singling you out, I just genuinely have no idea what to do with comments like this. I suppose I could let them go unanswered, but answering them could also provide an educating opportunity too, for people who just aren't aware or are new to following baseball. Who the hell knows. Most important to me is I don't want fans to think comebacks don't happen or that pennant races can't be exciting.

2015: Texas Rangers were 8.0 GB in division on July 27, third place in West, behind the Twins in the Wild Card, went ahead and traded for Cole Hamels, won division.

2009: Minnesota Twins were 7.0 GB trailing Detroit in September.

2007: Colorado Rockies epic win streak.

We don't see this sort of thing every season, but really, the examples are numerous.

Did the Twins have a chance? Yeah, of course they did.


How many of those comebacks featured teams that were below .500 as far back as mid April? I’ll wager few, if any. Teams that spend 3 months below .500 aren’t good. Period.
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Aug 12 2018 04:13 PM

How many of those comebacks featured teams that were below .500 as far back as mid April? I’ll wager few, if any. Teams that spend 3 months below .500 aren’t good. Period.

Of my three examples, the Rangers were below .500 on Aug 13, the Twins were below .500 in September, and the Rockies hovered around .500 most of the season (last below .500 on July 15 but half a game above .500 on Aug. 23).

Your condition that a team spend an unbroken period of time below .500 since mid-April is a pointless technicality. It only reaffirms my opinion that the Twins should have held and played out the schedule with their best players.

At this point, and it's just a gut feeling, but I'd even bet that if Falvey and Levine could do it over, they would, and they would keep Dozier, Escobar, and Rodney in favor of a soft sell of Pressly and Lynn, similar to last year. They still get Austin and a solid minor league starter from Houston, they keep their fan favorites, and not as many empty seats once the Vikings start their season.
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yarnivek1972
Aug 13 2018 09:58 AM
What you call a “pointless technicality” I call a clear sign of a bad team. Good teams don’t spend basically the entire season under .500. The Twins have been under .500 since mid April. To stay.

Sure, you are entitled to your opinion about what the Twins should have done at the deadline. I’m certainly glad you aren’t the guy making that decision. But, I highly doubt the ones who did regret “selling” as much as they did. Remaining vets are upset about it? Too bad. Perform better.
    • TheLeviathan and laloesch like this

 

I think the FO and Santana are far less worried about his comments than this board.(Yes Mike, I know it's a Twins board...) His comments were not a big deal.

 

I agree with this also. I don't get the angst over the comments......they make sense emotionally, if not logically. They should be upset about this, all of it......on reflection, they should also realize why this happened and not be upset over time.

    • SQUIRREL and mngopherguy like this
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Fritzderkat
Aug 13 2018 02:53 PM

 

>I can, and will again!

>The pieces were there. Basically the same team that made the surge last year, slightly different bullpen. The front office could have done a "light sell" of Pressly and Lynn and would have been praised just the same.

>Again, heading into July, same lineup as last season. Same players coming back. Pieces were there.

* **

 

My point, far as the Twins are concerned, is that the right "pieces haven't been there" for years. Anybody want to argue that?

>Let's say at the start of this season they had Castro, Polanco, a healthy Santana and Buxton and Sano as we've known them all year--performing nowhere near up to expectations, right? So what difference would that have made? They still didn't have what it would take to catch Cleveland, let alone anybody they might have met in the playoffs.This is not a contending club and for all practical purposes hasn't been since '91.

 


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