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Why isn't Buxton on MLB OPS leaders list?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:36 PM
Buxton is listed only on the MLB HR leaders list. Not on OPS or AVG or SLG or OBP. He should be the leader in several of these. He has as...
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Game Thread: Twins vs. Seattle, 4/10/21 @ 1:10pm

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:16 PM
Welcome back to the Twins Daily game thread party! After a rare Friday night off the Minnesota Twins will take on the Seattle Mariners t...
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Morneau

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:09 PM
I thought he was was really good last year. Maybe I'm on an opening day high (Not high) but he is so good.Who would have thought he would...
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The 5 Rule Draft

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 01:52 PM
This year's Rule 5 draft we lost Akil Baddo and Tyler Wells. So I thought I'd check to see how they were doing. 1st I checked on Baddo, h...
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Ex Twins in 2021: Where Are They Now?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:19 PM
One of my favorite annual threads on the site. Let’s stay updated on ex-Twins in the news... This is a start of a list, and feel free to...
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DET 4, MIN 3: Twins Fail to Execute in Extras

Nelson Cruz and Byron Buxton both hit their third home runs of the season but the Twins fell to the Tigers 4-3 in extra innings Tuesday afternoon in Detroit in a game marred by poor execution. Read more about the game in today’s recap.
Image courtesy of © Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Box Score
Happ: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Home Runs: Cruz (3), Buxton (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Robles -.350, Arraez -.210, Stashak -.196
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):
Attached Image: chart.png

Happ Solid, Stretched Out
J.A. Happ joined the Twins’ spring camp late due to a positive COVID test. Previously, Happ had only been stretched out to 73 pitches. In his first start of the season, Happ was solid, if not spectacular, striking out four in four innings of one-run ball. Happ managed 89 pitches, with a very mediocre Twins infield behind him.



Mize Strong Early
Casey Mize looked strong early for the Tigers. The 2018 No. 1 pick worked around scattered hits and walks in the first few innings, before struggling significantly in the fourth. In 2020, Mize typically got into messy innings, limiting his ability to get into later innings, the same was true today.

Arraez and Buxton Return to Lineup
Both Luis Arraez and Byron Buxton returned to the Twins lineup after exiting previous games with illness. Arraez started the game at second base, Buxton entered for Brent Rooker in the fifth.

Squandered Opportunities
The majority of the game felt like a frustrating 2020 offensive performance, full of missed opportunities.



In the top of the seventh inning however, Nelson Cruz again took matters into his own hands, sending his third HR in two days to right center field.



After replacing a struggling Brent Rooker, Byron Buxton deposited a pitch from José Cisnero deep into the left center field seats, emphatically tying the game in the top of the eighth after missing the previous two games with gastrointestinal discomfort.



Bullpen Battle
Happ’s relatively short start thrust the Twins bullpen into six innings of work. Cody Stashak entered the game in the fifth and struggled significantly. Stashak, who normally models impeccable control and command, needed 28 pitches (18 strikes) to see out his inning of work, giving up three hits, a walk and two runs in the process, ballooning his early 2021 ERA to 9.00.

2020 most surprising Twin Caleb Thielbar made his first appearance of 2021 in the seventh inning after missing some time in spring training with a back strain. Thielbar looked impressive in his outing, striking out five in two innings of work, showing sharp command of his curveball, and reaching an improved 93 mph with his fastball.

After Tyler Duffey pitched his best inning of the year, allowing just a walk in the eighth, Taylor Rogers found trouble in the ninth. Rogers induced a double play from Miguel Cabrera to end the inning.

In the top of the 10th, with Jorge Polanco beginning the inning at second base, Nelson Cruz immediately shot an opposite field single through the gap, sending Polanco to third base. Byron Buxton ground out, leading to Jorge Polanco being thrown out at the plate for the second time in the game before Andrelton Simmons struck out to end another empty Twins threat.

In the bottom of the 10th, Jeimer Candelario grounded out, moving Harold Castro to third base. Wilson Ramos struck out swinging. Hansel Robles deliberately walked Robbie Grossman before Akil Baddoo continued his torrid start to his first month in MLB, stroking the game winning single to right field to put the final nail in the coffin of a game the Twins will feel they should have won.

Mauer Joins Broadcast
Lastly, in a treat for home team fans, Twins great and future Hall of Famer joined the broadcast in the sixth inning, joining Dick Bremer and Justin Morneau to preview a charity home run derby being held at Target Field.



What were your thoughts on today's game? Who impressed? Who left you frustrated?

Postgame with Baldelli


Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
Attached Image: Screenshot 2021-04-06 at 4.11.31 PM.png


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55 Comments

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Dodecahedron
Apr 07 2021 02:55 PM

 

I wonder if teams will start walking the first batter in extras. Seems like a force at all 3 bases would almost make it easier...

 

May as well. A runner at second with zero outs is worth 0.6 runs according to baseball-reference. I assume this means the assumption is the runner will score 60% of the time. If you are the defending team, you may as well increase your chances to get a double play, at minimum, to counter that. By putting another runner at first, the 60% already counting against you probably only goes up to 70% or something, whereas your chances of getting a double play would no doubt go up much further than 10%. And, of course, it makes a triple play possible.

 

This rule is also not fair at a league level. Meaning, the NL will have a 2-in-9 chance to either get the pitching position at the plate or be able to walk someone to get the pitching position at the plate. In those cases, the baserunner might be less valuable.

    • FlauerPauer likes this
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Dodecahedron
Apr 07 2021 03:22 PM

 

I would definitely add Garver to your "need benching list". He might even be due for something worse. You can't send him down. Release him??

 

Let's compare the options:

Jeffers: .200 batting average, 55 OPS+, 2 WP/PB, 0 DRS
Garver: .200 batting average, 112 OPS+, 0 WP/PB, 0 DRS

Garver seems like the better option, but with these small sample sizes any decision is just gambling.

 

Was nice to see Polanco hit a couple balls hard to the gap, even if one got caught.

He's pretty important to this lineup. We need something closer to 1st half 2019 Jorge.
    • ashbury, Twins33 and Shaitan like this
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FlauerPauer
Apr 07 2021 06:15 PM

 

It's my understanding the Twins also start the 10th with a runner on second.

 

Basically MLB has said it doesn't want extra inning games. At this point, they might as well make overtime a home run derby. Each player in the lineup gets 2 balls from a designated person that the mlb has stationed at every game. Once through the lineup and whoever has the most home runs, wins the game. MLB's version of an NHL shootout.

 

Not quite like a coin toss — in the scenario you describe, the visiting team already failed to do something (score in top of inning) and the home team succeeded at something (preventing a run in the top of the inning). It is not a random event that advantages the home team in that scenario, it is their own good play. That’s like saying the advantage shifts to the offense after a lead off triple — of course it does, they did something good!

Also while it may seem advantageous to be able to play for 1 run, some of that is neutralized by the defense being able to play for preventing 1 run too. In the top of the 10th, there is a real downside for the home team on defense to issue intentional walks, play the infield in, etc. But those strategies become acceptable— recommended, even — for the visitors playing defense in the bottom of the inning. The home team may still get a slight net advantage but it could be rather small and easily dwarfed by other factors.

Would be interesting to see a study on this, if we have enough data.

 

agree with what you said, not any issues there but I still think of the football scenario especially college.  You go defense first or if home team you know you are on defense first. Yes, you make adjustments and make plays and prevent a run, same thing in football.  You make stops then you know how to play when on offense to get a run or multiple.  I don't like the 10th being the inning, would like to see the 12th and at that point, why not have a runner on 1st and 2nd?  Just thoughts, thanks your take on it