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Article: MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:27 AM
One moment it looked like the Twins were going to blow a quality start from Ervin Santana, the next moment they were blowing out the Tige...
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Possible items to include in the October 1 game thread op...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:20 AM
I am asking for TD posters to contact me via private message. I have the honor of opening the game thread for game 162, Sunday, Octo...
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With all these firings, Who's replacing them?

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 07:08 AM
We have been hearing about a lot of makeover going on throughout the Twins minor league system from scouts to MiLB coaches and staff to t...
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Jake Reed - 2017

Adopt A Prospect 2017 Today, 07:02 AM
Jake Reed:      He didn't win the over/under wins contest last year to win free Harry's Razors....      Pos...
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Article: Escobar Steps Up

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:08 AM
The Twins won on Friday night in Detroit. Later in the night, Angels and the Rangers lost, so the Twins have a 3 1/2 game lead on the 2nd...
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Delmon vs. Revere

Does Revere's Defense Make Up For Delmon's Offense?
Last week in a thought exercise, I wondered if who we could expect more out of this year – Delmon Young or Ben Revere. One offensive, one defensive. One defensively laughable, one offensively infuriating. So let’s look, sabrmetrically, at what each should be worth offensively and defensively next year.

Attached Image: Delmon-Revere.jpg
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

Offense
I like using a very basic sabremetric stat to measure offensive production for players: Bill James’ Runs Created (or RC). Basically James discovered that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bat a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players.

(If you’re looking for more on Runs Created, I did a short story on it back in April you might want to check out. That theory is that basis for a huge chunk of the sabremetric work out there. It also started the alphabet statistical soup that people like to mock. If you want to be able to explain the basics of this stuff to people, it’s a good start.)

Runs Created has been through all kinds of formulas and there are all kinds of pet derivations for it. I’m going to just pull mine from ESPN.com for both players.

Delmon Young created 51 runs last year, 89 the year before and 76 &45 in his first two years with the Twins. My gawd, was he really here four years? I guess time flies when you’re flailing at first pitches. He’s probably good for somewhere between 50 and 90 runs, so I’ll go with 70 as a nice round figure.

Revere played in 117 games with 481 plate appearances and created 46 runs. It’s not safe to assume he’ll be playing full time this year, but just so we can compare apples to apples, let’s assume he gets another 90 AB. That would give him about 55 runs of offense, about 15 less than Delmon.

Defense
The most widely used defensive metric, Ultimate Zone Rating (or UZR) also uses runs as its measuring stick, though this time it is runs in comparison to the average defender. We’ll take that number and add it to (or subtract it from) our offensive runs. We’ll get those numbers from FanGraphs.com.

Young has been bad defensively, but did you know that according to UZR he has really improved over the last two years? Last year he only cost the Twins three runs compared to the average left fielder, seven runs better than 2010 and 11 runs better than the year before that. My guess is that Young costs between 0 and -15 runs, and so I’ll got with -5. Overall that leaves him with 65 runs.

Revere is also a little hard to measure. His UZR in left field was also negative, but he only played there for a few games, so it’s hard to count on UZR. However, in center field he saved 10 runs, and that translates to 15 runs if he had played there full time. Generally, you would see that number go up in left field, just because the average left fielder is worse defensively than the average center fielder. So 15 runs seems safe, and it could be as high as 20. Let’s stay with 15.

And the cry goes up: But WHAT ABOUT HIS ARM? Well UZR takes an outfielder's arm into account. So for now, let's go with it.

Parenthentically, it should be a fascinating year for Twins fans as they watch a thought experiment play itself out in reality. Enormous range. No arm. Which is more important to an outfielder? I think it’s going to be “range” in a landslide, but I wonder if I’ll feel the same way after this year.

That gives Revere 70 runs and Delmon 65. I wouldn’t take it as definitive proof that Revere is going to be more valuable than Young, but they’re a lot more comparable than I would have thought.


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