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A way, way too early look at the 2019 rotation. And yet...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:12 PM
This is stupid! Its way, way too early! And we will have months ahead of us to discuss the 2019 season. And yet, between a disappointing...
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Dozier v Forsythe

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:54 PM
Never thought this would be necessary, but I'm going to post periodic updates comparing the two the rest of the year. Forsythe doesn't ha...
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Article: What To Do With Byron Buxton?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:54 PM
On Tuesday, the Minnesota Twins activated Byron Buxton from his fourth separate stint on the disabled list this season. It's been a night...
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Game Thread (8/16): Twins vs. Detroit, 7:10 PM CT

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:12 PM
Twins | 56-63 overall, 35-24 at home, 5-5 last 10 Ervin Santana, RHP | 6.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 2.33 K:BB in 20.2 IPTigers | 50-71 overall, 1...
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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Closing Time

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:37 PM
Twins Daily Roundtable is a weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respond i...
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Recent Blogs


CLE 5, MIN 2: Cleveland Prevails on Lindor Walk-Off Homer

It’s pretty difficult to win when your defense commits three errors, but the Twins nearly did just that this evening. Miguel Sano hit a game-tying home run in the top of the ninth, Max Kepler made a great catch as he crashed into the wall in the bottom of the ninth, but Francisco Lindor decided he’d just go ahead and hit one over the wall to walk it off.
Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Jake Odorizzi: 50 Game Score, 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 K, 2 BB, 58.4% strikes
Home Runs: Miguel Sano (8)
Multi-Hit Games: Miguel Sano (2-for-4, 2B, HR), Logan Forsythe (2-for-4, 2B)
WPA of 0.1 or higher: Sano .342, Forsythe .173
WPA of -0.1 or lower: Adrianza -.119, Kepler -.158, Polanco -.167, Morrison -.176 Hildenberger -.353
Attached Image: WinChart88.png
Jake Cave committed a fielding error that led to the game’s first run and both Mitch Garver and Trevor May committed throwing errors. Garver was also picked off at second base, likely costing the Twins a run, and the team combined to go 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position.

Given those circumstances, it’s actually pretty incredible this game was tied heading into the bottom of the ninth.

Miguel Sano had an outstanding game. He made a couple of nice plays in the field, hit a double and that huge homer off Cody Allen to tie it up. It was the first time Sano has hit a home run since his return from the minors.

Something must be up with Trevor Hildenberger. He gave up the three-run homer to Lindor, meaning Hildy has surrendered multiple runs in six of his last 18 appearances. Over that span, he’s given up 19 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings. Yikes.

Postgame With Molitor

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen88.png
AL Central Standings
CLE 63-50
MIN 53-60 (-10)
DET 47-68 (-17)
CHW 41-72 (-22)
KC 35-79 (-28.5)

Next Three Game
Thu at CLE, 12:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Corey Kluber
Fri at DET, 6:10 pm CT: Ervin Santana vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Sat at DET, 5:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Francisco Liriano

Last Three Games
MIN 3, CLE 2: Mitch Garver Makes it Rain
CLE 10, MIN 0: Who Needs Chris Gimenez?
MIN 6, KC 5: Cave Slugs Grand Slam as Twins Sweep Royals


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76 Comments

For all we know the FO could be intending to bring Forsythe back.


I hope not. There will be quite a few infield alternatives on the free agent market, and our lack of financial commitments suggests we don't have to go cheap on the position.

 

I hope not. There will be quite a few infield alternatives on the free agent market, and our lack of financial commitments suggests we don't have to go cheap on the position.

 

On the other hand Forsythe is a year and a half removed from a 3.4 WAR season.I know he was brutal with the stick in LA this season, if they don't think Gordon will be ready next year (not looking good) I could see extending a 1 year "prove it" type deal for Forsythe.He's only 31 and the Twins do have a lot of depth up the middle in the minors.I would be surprised to see them going to free agency and signing a multi year deal to a 2B/SS this offseason.

On the other hand Forsythe is a year and a half removed from a 3.4 WAR season. I know he was brutal with the stick in LA this season, if they don't think Gordon will be ready next year (not looking good) I could see extending a 1 year "prove it" type deal for Forsythe. He's only 31 and the Twins do have a lot of depth up the middle in the minors. I would be surprised to see them going to free agency and signing a multi year deal to a 2B/SS this offseason.


After last year's slow market, and this year's large crop of pending FA infielders, there is a good chance they don't have to make a multi-year offer to get a better player than Forsythe.

https://www.mlbtrade...ree-agents.html
    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

I would plan on Buxton starting next season in the minors and try and find someone needing1 year make good contract (if one is out there). 

 

You will get no argument from me. 

 

My thoughts on Buxton are simple. I think he has the potential to be one of the best players in baseball but he is currently closer to one of the worst players in baseball. 

 

I will not count on him until he proves he can be counted on.

 

He earns his job from here forward.

 

I'm just plain tired of absorbing poor CF play in the name of "he's gonna be". 

    • Mike Sixel likes this
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Carole Keller
Aug 09 2018 01:03 PM

 

It's kind of hard to overuse a hitter, compared to a pitcher. They are two different animals. Most hitters don't need time off, if they do, that handicaps the teams. Pitchers? totally different, they need time off.

I get that but what it all boils down to for me is the manager, how and when he uses certain players. How he manages the BP, the lineups, the players. It's not anyone's decision but his. Period. And if you are giving leeway to some players to make that call, that's on the manager and the FO for allowing it.

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Carole Keller
Aug 09 2018 01:05 PM

 

 

As Mike noted, they are not remotely comparable situations.

Yes, they are ... because it's the manager's decision who plays when, where, how. It's on him. And if he's not making those calls, why isn't he? It's his job! Giving deferenceto some players' 'needs' over others is not the way to manage.

    • ewen21 likes this

 

Concur; especially with the latter.

 

#MolitorNeedsToGo

 

I'm really trying to stay composed. 

 

I am already at peace with the knowledge that we won't win the World Series this year and don't care about W's and L's at this moment in time as a result.  

 

But my frustration is starting to get the better of me because when I consider 2019.I don't understand what purpose Forsythe and Morrison are serving the franchise and therefore don't understand why they are playing every day. 

 

I can justify Drake if I squint my eyes but I can't justify Forsythe, Morrison and of course Belisle. 

 

So yeah... I'm getting ready to join your chorus. 

 

    • Carole Keller and Mike Sixel like this
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Carole Keller
Aug 09 2018 01:37 PM

 

I'm really trying to stay composed. 

 

I am already at peace with the knowledge that we won't win the World Series this year and don't care about W's and L's at this moment in time as a result.  

 

But my frustration is starting to get the better of me because when I consider 2019.I don't understand what purpose Forsythe and Morrison are serving the franchise and therefore don't understand why they are playing every day. 

 

I can justify Drake if I squint my eyes but I can't justify Forsythe, Morrison and of course Belisle. 

 

So yeah... I'm getting ready to join your chorus. 

This whole season I've found roster management frustrating ... both from the FO with call ups and moves and with the manager in his in-game management of the roster given him.

    • Mike Sixel and Riverbrian like this

 

1.) Ummm, have you met the Marlins? The Padres? The Reds? The Twins have their warts but you're just being negative, per usual.

 

2) The 2016 #1 pick is Mickey Moniak and he's with the Phillies, not hitting in High A ball. I guess the Twins could try to trade for him but he's not that great a prospect so not sure why they world.

 

3.) The Braves were awful for years. They now are on the upswing. That's the way things go. In two years the Twins will be on the upswing hopefully. Not sure how you want the Twins to somehow fast forward time. Rebuilding takes time.

When you to have say we aren't as bad as the Reds, Marlins and Padres to find a sliver lining you are reaching.If this is "being positive" then I don't any part of it.The Twins need to make tough decisions and honestly assess what they need to do.I happen think they need to let go of both Molitor and Mauer after this season.It is time to move on into the next era.Needing local guys to sell the product is a Mickey Mouse approach.

 

 

 

You will get no argument from me. 

 

My thoughts on Buxton are simple. I think he has the potential to be one of the best players in baseball but he is currently closer to one of the worst players in baseball. 

 

I will not count on him until he proves he can be counted on.

 

He earns his job from here forward.

 

I'm just plain tired of absorbing poor CF play in the name of "he's gonna be". 

I do not agree with the underlined for the simple fact that his offense is way WAY behind the curve and it simply isn't going to correct itself.The last seven weeks of last year seems more and more like a mirage.Subtract out that little run and his major league stats are atrocious.I am also worried about his propensity for getting injured and the zeal with which he runs into walls.I am having a hard time envisioning him being much more than a Jackie Bradley type.....

 

And it is funny.

When Bradley had his little spurt 2 years ago people liked to compare Buxton to him.How come not now?Not positive enough?

 

Let's get real with Buxton.  

    • Riverbrian likes this

 

I have over 19,000 posts on TwinsDaily and I do not have 19,000 unique thoughts so I will end up repeating myself. 

 

You need 25 guys who can play on your 25 man roster. 

 

If the manager doesn't trust any of the guys on the 25 man roster.

 

They either shouldn't be on the roster or you need a new manager with the ability to trust.  

I have no argument with that, but I still think that we need a new paradigm for relievers.This just keeps developing - now with openers as well as closers and guaranteed daily relief pitcher use there has to be a better way of using them.We need systems - where are the stats boys?

 

This whole season I've found roster management frustrating ... both from the FO with call ups and moves and with the manager in his in-game management of the roster given him.

 

Yep... 2018 will end up being a blown opportunity. 

 

I want to know who to blame and I don't know the dynamic of the decision making room to be sure. I do know that It isn't as simple as blaming the players. 

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

I do not agree with the underlined for the simple fact that his offense is way WAY behind the curve and it simply isn't going to correct itself.The last seven weeks of last year seems more and more like a mirage.Subtract out that little run and his major league stats are atrocious.I am also worried about his propensity for getting injured and the zeal with which he runs into walls.I am having a hard time envisioning him being much more than a Jackie Bradley type.....

 

And it is funny.

When Bradley had his little spurt 2 years ago people liked to compare Buxton to him.How come not now?Not positive enough?

 

Let's get real with Buxton.  

 

I don't know everything and I certainly don't know enough about Buxton to be sure but I believe he can turn the light on fast if he would just level out that swing. 

 

Until then... It could only be termed as irresponsible... if the Twins pencil him into the starting CF spot next year without a sufficient back up plan.

 

But... Whatever they do... Don't give up on him. The past regime moved Aaron Hicks and Carlos Gomez way too early. 

 

    • ewen21 likes this

 

I have no argument with that, but I still think that we need a new paradigm for relievers.This just keeps developing - now with openers as well as closers and guaranteed daily relief pitcher use there has to be a better way of using them.We need systems - where are the stats boys?

 

When I heard that they were experimenting with openers in Rochester, it gave me a good feeling about the front office because it shows an effort to get out in front of the curve.

 

That type of operation would be such a welcome change from the old front office being consistently behind the curve. We were one of the last teams to fully embrace metrics under the previous regime and now maybe... just maybe we won't be that type of club anymore. 

 

I agree about the bullpen, it's a new world right now and I'd like the Twins to get out of the old world. I am waiting for the changes to take place at the major league level with the Twins. I want my team to get bullpen serious.

 

    • mikelink45 likes this

 

I don't know everything and I certainly don't know enough about Buxton to be sure but I believe he can turn the light on fast if he would just level out that swing. 

 

Until then... It could only be termed as irresponsible... if the Twins pencil him into the starting CF spot next year without a sufficient back up plan.

 

But... Whatever they do... Don't give up on him. The past regime moved Aaron Hicks and Carlos Gomez way too early. 

I don't think we moved on from Hicks or Gomez too early.We got Hardy for Gomez and that was a pretty good haul.Had we held onto Hardy we would not have bothered to think of Gomez.Gomez is also a sideshow and he was not "Twins-like"

I also thought it was not a terrible move to trade Hicks for JR Murphy.IT was a roll of dice and we got snake eyes.Hicks had his chance with us and it was becoming apparent that he was not developing with this organization.And there is the rub.

 

I am not sure if Buxton has a chance in this organization.THere is something seriously lacking when players make the jump from the low minors to where they need to be.He was great to talk about as a prospect and it was great to coo on and on about his "tools" and "potential"

The kid needs to put on the big boy pants and embrace the fact that he has to contribute at the major league level.I don't know what kind of mental barrier he has put up, but there is something about him that has me concerned.Almost like the major leagues is too big for him.He almost acts like he is in his apprenticeship.There are players several years younger that are more polished.It is almost as though the Twins put him on a pedestal and believed his talents were so great he would figure it out.

 

 

 

I don't think we moved on from Hicks or Gomez too early.We got Hardy for Gomez and that was a pretty good haul.Had we held onto Hardy we would not have bothered to think of Gomez.Gomez is also a sideshow and he was not "Twins-like"

I also thought it was not a terrible move to trade Hicks for JR Murphy.IT was a roll of dice and we got snake eyes.Hicks had his chance with us and it was becoming apparent that he was not developing with this organization.And there is the rub.

 

I am not sure if Buxton has a chance in this organization.THere is something seriously lacking when players make the jump from the low minors to where they need to be.He was great to talk about as a prospect and it was great to coo on and on about his "tools" and "potential"

The kid needs to put on the big boy pants and embrace the fact that he has to contribute at the major league level.I don't know what kind of mental barrier he has put up, but there is something about him that has me concerned.Almost like the major leagues is too big for him.He almost acts like he is in his apprenticeship.There are players several years younger that are more polished.It is almost as though the Twins put him on a pedestal and believed his talents were so great he would figure it out.

 

Bottom Line: Gomez and Hicks struggled mightily playing for us and then were traded and became productive elsewhere. This can only be seen as the fuzzy end of the lollipop. 

 

You can justify the addition of JJ Hardy but we didn't even get a year out of him and the same goes for John Ryan Murphy. We lost 5 tool players and we got basically nothing to hold in our hands in return and we still don't have a CF solution but we have had Mastroianni. 

 

Buxton... we are all concerned... but they need to develop him or eat him because we've seen this trade your disappointment movie before. 

 

 

 

 

Bottom Line: Gomez and Hicks struggled mightily playing for us and then were traded and became productive elsewhere. This can only be seen as the fuzzy end of the lollipop. 

 

You can justify the addition of JJ Hardy but we didn't even get a year out of him and the same goes for John Ryan Murphy. We lost 5 tool players and we got basically nothing to hold in our hands in return and we still don't have a CF solution but we have had Mastroianni. 

 

Buxton... we are all concerned... but they need to develop him or eat him because we've seen this trade your disappointment movie before. 

We didn't get a year out of Hardy, not because he sucked.Then he went on to have several good years after we traded him.Gomez never became all that much his "five tool player" moniker notwithstanding.You may have an argument in Hicks, but he was not going to be successful here.

 

As far as Buxton is concerned, I cannot understand where you are coming from.Earlier you seemed to suggest you would not be against trading.Was that "sarcasm"?

 

I am not for holding onto any player who sucks for five years.Next year is it for me.He has too many red flags.He strikes out a ton, doesn't get on base, doesn't hit for average, gets lots of injuries and relies almost entirely on speed.Where is he headed with that kind of a profile?I am not saying GET RID OF HIM!!  

I am simply saying a) it's time to understand he likely isn't going to be great (maybe not even good) and B) we need to stop giving endless amounts of rope to guys just so they can hang themselves

 

When you to have say we aren't as bad as the Reds, Marlins and Padres to find a sliver lining you are reaching.If this is "being positive" then I don't any part of it.The Twins need to make tough decisions and honestly assess what they need to do.I happen think they need to let go of both Molitor and Mauer after this season.It is time to move on into the next era.Needing local guys to sell the product is a Mickey Mouse approach.

 

I think you know as well as I do that I used those three teams to showcase the “hot take” by Number3. The Twins FO has been lauded by scouts and the national press for its draft the past two years, its free agency signings last year, and its trade deadline maneuvering this year. Anyone who says the Twins are the worst-run team in baseball is showcasing their ignorance. They may not be the best run team in baseball but they’re definitely upper half.

 

They don’t profile to have anyone better than Mauer at DH/1B in 2019. Rooker isn’t going to be ready til mid-season at the earliest (and plays OF as well). Austin might be ready but may also just be a AAAA player. He’s not someone you’re writing in with a pen. From there you’re looking at free agents and I’d encourage you to go look at who is available. It’s not a pretty list. Joe Mauer on a 1-2 year deal makes a lot of sense for a team with a big hole at 1B/DH/3B (precluding Sano moving over) and a need for OBP.

 

Some people just like to be negative. The Twins glass is 3/4 full right now. Lots of organizations would swap spots in a heartbeat. Young marketable players currently up, a beautiful park, a solid regional market, a well-respected front office, and a top 5-10 farm system to augment a team that was in the playoffs last year. This year didn’t go to plan but that doesn’t mean the plan was bad. Life happens.

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ashburyjohn
Aug 10 2018 09:10 AM

This year didn’t go to plan but that doesn’t mean the plan was bad. Life happens.

Plan was sound, sorta. Execution, more debatable.

 

To me, the pivotal point is in evaluation and forecasting. I still don't believe our analytics group is a strength compared to other teams. Kyle Gibson makes some changes, good results happen, and they carry over to 2018. Logan Morrison makes some changes, good results happen, and apparently pitchers adjusted to his changes and 2018 was a disaster for him. Somehow, evaluators who can tease out the difference between a "career year" and "turning the corner" are still lacking.

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

Plan was sound, sorta. Execution, more debatable.

 

To me, the pivotal point is in evaluation and forecasting. I still don't believe our analytics group is a strength compared to other teams. Kyle Gibson makes some changes, good results happen, and they carry over to 2018. Logan Morrison makes some changes, good results happen, and apparently pitchers adjusted to his changes and 2018 was a disaster for him. Somehow, evaluators who can tease out the difference between a "career year" and "turning the corner" are still lacking.

 

The Twins get a bad rap on Morrison. It’s a time when launch angles are changing for hitters so it wasn’t crazy to think that he might be a 125 OPS guy instead of a 105 OPS guy. They didn’t pay him like the 125 guy, they paid him like a 105 guy and they got an option for a second year in case he was a 125 guy.

 

Clearly we’ve learned last year was the outlier but it’s mainly been some bad BABIP and maybe some rust in April that’s kept him from being the 105 guy. That guy would have been a nice DH piece in the lineup.

 

I can’t fault them for Logan Morrison signing. The process was sound. I think a better argument can be made for them cutting him loose earlier but that’s a hard call to make. You never know when a guy is going to turn it around and it’s not like anyone wanted to see Vargas up in his stead or more Grossman. And there’s something to be said for sticking with free agents you sign since it sends a message to other free agents that they won’t lose their job if they struggle at first. We’ll see if they get anything for him in August, that would go a long way towards making their commitment to him worthwhile.

 

 

 

Some people just like to be negative. The Twins glass is 3/4 full right now. Lots of organizations would swap spots in a heartbeat. Young marketable players currently up, a beautiful park, a solid regional market, a well-respected front office, and a top 5-10 farm system to augment a team that was in the playoffs last year. This year didn’t go to plan but that doesn’t mean the plan was bad. Life happens.

David St. Peter would be proud of these remarks

 

David St. Peter would be proud of these remarks

 

Is that a bad thing? An insult? I think they're all good things?

 

Clearly we’ve learned last year was the outlier but it’s mainly been some bad BABIP and maybe some rust in April that’s kept him from being the 105 guy. That guy would have been a nice DH piece in the lineup.

I don't think "rust in April" is valid for Morrison, since he signed on February 25th.

 

But I was checking out some expected wOBA stats in another thread, and sure enough Morrison is up there for 2018. So is Mauer, for what it's worth, but he has under-performed his xwOBA by 30+ points every year of the Statcast era (since 2015). Morrison was a similar under-performer for 2015-2016 too, although not as much as he has underperformed in 2018.

 

https://baseballsava...&team=MIN&min=1

    • ThejacKmp likes this

 

Is that a bad thing? An insult? I think they're all good things?

You are selling the "gotta look at the positives" angle.

That's noble.

 

Just don't get your hackles up when others don't.You went in on Number3 a little too hard.Relax

 

You are selling the "gotta look at the positives" angle.

That's noble.

 

Just don't get your hackles up when others don't.You went in on Number3 a little too hard.Relax

 

Relentless and reflexive negativity (not Number3's first post) with nothing to back it up generally deserves a strong response that accentuates the positive.

 

But note taken.

 

P.S. it's not noble. It's realistic. It's easy to get dragged down in a 162 game disappointing season. Everyone would do a lot better to look at the bigger picture, which is overwhelmingly positive.


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