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CHW 8, MIN 4: South Side Slip

Lance Lynn was pitching well, the Twins held a 4-2 lead and they were playing the White Sox in the sixth inning. What could go wrong? Lynn opened the bottom of the sixth by slipping while trying to field a weak grounder in the grass, and from that moment forward the Twins just kept on slipping.
Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Lance Lynn: 45 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 65.6% strikes
Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB
Lineup: 1-for-1 w/RISP, 2 LOB
Top three per WPA: Adrianza .230, Dozier .069, Cave .017
Attached Image: WinEx626.png
Lynn ended up failing to record an out in the sixth, loading the bases on a bunch of weak contact prior to being lifted for Ryan Pressly, who promptly walked Tim Anderson on five pitches to force home a run.

Later that inning, Taylor Rogers gave up a two-run single that put Chicago up 5-4. The Twins ended up using four pitchers that inning, as Alan Busenitz came in to record the third out.

Unfortunately, Busenitz game up a leadoff homer in the seventh and another run came across while he was on the mound in the eighth after a single, a hit by pitch, an error and another single.

Then Matt Belisle came in and walked in another run. And that was just the pitching!

Ehire Adrianza had a good night, going 2-for-3 with a homer and Brian Dozier hit his 11th home run of the season, but the offense struggled. The team combined for six hits and a walk. They only had one at bat with a runner in scoring position all night.

After that nightmare sixth inning that saw the White Sox take the lead, the bats combined to go 0-for-9 with four strikeouts.

Postgame With Molitor

AL Central Standings
CLE 43-35
MIN 34-41 (-7.5)
DET 36-44 (-8)
CHW 27-51 (-16)
KC 24-55 (-19.5)

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen627.png
Next Three Games
Wed at CHW, 7:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. James Shields
Thu at CHW, 1:10 pm CT: TBD vs. Lucas Giolito
Fri at CHC, 4:05 pm pm CT: TBD

Last Three Games
MIN 2, TEX 0: La MaKKKKKKKKKKKKina
TEX 9, MIN 6: Odorizzi Lays an Egg
TEX 8, MIN 1: Circling the Drain

See Also
Twins Minor League Report (6/26): Thorpe Dominant, Miranda Slams
What Fernando Rodney Experience?
The Rise and Fall of Miguel Sano


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42 Comments

Photo
Tom Froemming
Jun 27 2018 11:25 AM

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. If you want a bigger sample, how about the biggest sample?

 

Per B-Ref, MLB hitters are 3,880,930-for-14,837,452 all-time. That's a .262 average. That may seem like a big difference, .262 to .246, but in reality it's only 1.6 percent.

 

For 2018 AL hitters to get up to that .262 mark, they would have needed to rack up 633 more hits than they have so far. That may seem like a lot, but AL teams have combined to play 1,185 games this season. 

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

Any increment that selects 1968 is going to be problematic, as that's the all-time low.

Strikeouts are WAY up. Without a corresponding rise in BABIP, that's going to lower batting averages. (And BABIP is actually down this year too, curious about that.)

 

I think it's fair to be concerned about the rise in strikeouts.

 

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. 

I recommend using Fangraphs and selecting "NP" (non-pitchers) as the position for a better comparison.

 

Although you have to export to a spreadsheet to do your own totals for multiple years.

Lynn's demeanor on the mound reminds me of Ricky Nolasco. He always looks irritated and crabby. 

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. If you want a bigger sample, how about the biggest sample?
 
Per B-Ref, MLB hitters are 3,880,930-for-14,837,452 all-time. That's a .262 average. That may seem like a big difference, .262 to .246, but in reality it's only 1.6 percent.
 
For 2018 AL hitters to get up to that .262 mark, they would have needed to rack up 633 more hits than they have so far. That may seem like a lot, but AL teams have combined to play 1,185 games this season.


It might be 1.6 percent purely per the math, but that’s really not the way to look at it.

On a scale where .200 is utter failure, and .350 extreme success, 16 points from .262 to .246 is fairly significant, IMO.
    • bluechipper and wsnydes like this
Photo
Hosken Bombo Disco
Jun 27 2018 12:02 PM
Does anyone have any opinion on whether Lynn should have stayed in in the 6th?

Does anyone have any opinion on whether Lynn should have stayed in in the 6th?


I complain about Molitor leaving his starters in too long a lot, but in this case I had no complaint.

And only one of the three hits he gave up in the 6th should have been a hit.

Fair to say Lynn is not a gold glove candidate though.
    • Mike Sixel, bluechipper, wsnydes and 1 other like this

 

(And BABIP is actually down this year too, curious about that.)

 

 

 

Shifts I assume?

Photo
Tom Froemming
Jun 27 2018 12:09 PM

 

It might be 1.6 percent purely per the math, but that’s really not the way to look at it.

On a scale where .200 is utter failure, and .350 extreme success, 16 points from .262 to .246 is fairly significant, IMO.

Over 600 at bats, your .262 hitter only gets about 10 more hits than your .246 hitter. That's a difference, but I wouldn't call it significant. 

Over 600 at bats, your .262 hitter only gets about 10 more hits than your .246 hitter. That's a difference, but I wouldn't call it significant.


But your quote considered “MLB hitters all time.”

I think a 16 pt BA drop is a pretty big thing. That’s 10 more hits for every hitter, not just one. Or 10 fewer to be more accurate.
Photo
Hosken Bombo Disco
Jun 27 2018 12:30 PM

I complain about Molitor leaving his starters in too long a lot, but in this case I had no complaint.
And only one of the three hits he gave up in the 6th should have been a hit.
Fair to say Lynn is not a gold glove candidate though.

I didn't see the inning, so no opinion.

In general I am the opposite. Would rather see a starter clean up his own mess.

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

So, currently we're 8 points below the dead-ball era.And we're lower than every era except for the era that resulted in the mound being lowered.(The current game does remind me of 1960's baseball to a degree.)But having said that, this data makes it look like the 70's and 80's were the aberration rather than the norm. 

 

Of course, the huge difference is in how the .246 (or .230) BA is achieved.In the past it was achieved with a whole lot of ball-in-play guys...and a healthy minority of strike-out/power guys.Now it's achieved with considerably less diversity in approaches skill/sets.Almost everyone is (or is trying to be) the same player offensively.And that player hasn't been developed to put the ball in play or spray the ball all over the field.He's been trained to 'launch' or walk...and accept the resulting K%.We know why.And it's probably true to say that, regardless of what the modern formula dictated, the shrinking diversity of approaches/skills-sets was going to an inevitable result of the evolution of how kids grow up today and are trained. They don't so much 'play' baseball as much as they are 'trained' at it.Ironically, this is more true the more talented the kid.

Photo
yarnivek1972
Jun 27 2018 01:23 PM
Baseball tends to be cyclical. Someone will have success with a contact and baserunning approach and the rest of the league will try to copy it.

But, I absolutely think the current game where the “3 true outcome” types are valued is ridiculously boring.

Homeruns are boring. The most exciting play in baseball? Triple IMO. Anytime there is a play at the plate also. No, I am not sorry they banned violent collisions either. The play at the plate is still exciting without seeing some guy get his head knocked off.

We have two starter with an OPS over .710, they both are over .900.Morrison is at the bottom at .630Its not time to panic yet, but it is time to mix it up more and change the lineup.  

 

Are you sitting down? I pulled these numbers up a couple weeks ago and was shocked. 

 

Twins 2018 MLB ranks w/RISP (pulled from FanGraphs)

AVG 6th (.262)

OBP 11th (.340)

SLG 6th (.437)

OPS 7th (.777)

wOBA 7th (.329)

wRC+ 7th (107)

 

Crazy, right? I would've bet they were in the bottom third in all those stats. The big problem has been simply getting the runners into scoring position in the first place. The Twins have 666 plate appearances w/RISP, that's the fourth lowest in baseball

 

Would love to see what these numbers look like excluding Rosario and Escobar.I bet they WOULD be in the bottom third of the league.

 

Shifts I assume?

Which means that leaving one-third to one-half of the infield completely open has lead to lower BABiP.Try explaining that one to the baseball novice.Of course true SLG guys aren't going to give in...nor should they.On the other hand, a whole lot of guys that are getting shifted are not in that category.


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