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2016 Postseason Twins Top Prospect Rankings

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 09:27 PM
As we did at midseason, I'd like to start another Twins Top Prospect ranking vote. We will use the Twins Daily Twitter feed for the votin...
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Twins Outright Five from 40-man roster

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:14 PM
According to the Twins official website, five players were outrighted from the Twins 40-man roster.    Andrew Albers James Bere...
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Game thread: 1991 Games 1 and 2

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:14 PM
Best I can tell, the Twins have been mathematically eliminated from this year’s World Series chase.   But I’ve been feeling in a nos...
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Norge Ruiz

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:20 PM
Darren Wolfson is reporting that the Twins will watch Cuban FA pitcher Norge Ruiz throw tonight in the Dominican League. Also watched him...
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SABR Meeting

Other Baseball Today, 08:11 PM
Who among us are SABR members? Is anybody going to the fall meeting on October 29th?   I just moved back to Minnesota last month. I'...
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Back of the Napkin: How Far Are The 2013 Twins From Contention?

How far are the Twins from contention? One side looks at their dismal record and wants a complete makeover. The other looks at the team's players and thinks they’re just a couple of arms away from a pennant race. Which is it?

Attached Image: 20080222_overmyer-730549.jpg Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin figuring. As of right now, the Twins are 111 runs under .500. Not wins under .500, but runs under .500.
That isn’t good. The Indians are the only American League team that’s worse. The three teams who have the most runs over .500 also happen to be the division leaders. The outlier is the Orioles, who are 45 runs under .500 but still have a shot at the wild card. But for the most part, the teams that are around 40 runs over .500 have a decent chance at a playoff spot.

So how do the Twins, in 2013, get from -110 to +40? Can they? Is that realistic?

It ain’t easy, but the Twins are both blessed and cursed by the same trait – they’re starting pitching is truly dreadful. That’s not breaking news, but just HOW awful they are is both stomach-turning and hope-inducing.

They’re the worst team in the American League, and it’s not particularly close. The starting rotation’s ERA is currently 5.56. Next worst is almost a full half run better. The AL average is more than a run better. The median team is 1.2 runs better. And the best team, the Devil Rays, is more than two runs better per game.

So where’s the hope? It’s in some simple math.

The average AL starting rotation pitches about 990 innings, or about 110 full games worth of innings. If the rotation improves to just second worst in the AL, that’s worth 55 runs. A move to mediocrity brings them another 110 to 130 runs. That at least sounds close to contention.

It turns out both sides are right. The Twins are dismal. And they’re a few non-terrible arms from contention. So the argument shifts: how tough is it to cobble together mediocre starting pitching?

That depends on who you talk to. The Orioles might say it’s not that daunting, considering their rotation improved from dead last in 2011 to 9th this year with nothing more than a couple of cheaper free agent pickups. On the other hand, the Royals haven’t been better than the 10th best team in the AL since 2003, which is also the last time they were contenders.

Twins optimists might point to Scott Diamond, a Rule 5 pickup, as an example of how decent starting pitching can come from where one least expects it. Twins pessimists might point to the other ten players who have started atop the mound at some point this season. None have thrown even 100 innings as a starter. None are likely to. If the front office could find pitching talent, wouldn’t they have found some in the 107 games started by those pitchers?

I’m not sure I know the answer. But watching the last few weeks of the season and seeing the performances of Liam Hendriks, Sam Deduno and hopefully Esmerling Vasquez could – and probably should – play a part in the overall direction of the franchise this season.

So maybe neither side is right, at least not yet.

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