A Massive Year for Max
Feb 20 2021 08:00 PM |
Cody Pirkl
in Minnesota Twins
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Max Kepler has become much more than just the entertaining story of a rare German born baseball player reaching the Major Leagues. After his first taste of action in 2015, Kepler has become a mainstay in the Twins lineup and outfield. His middling offense exploded in a 2019 season in which he was 21% above league average according to wRC+. His agility and athleticism made him a gold glove contender in right field. Kepler comes to mind for many when they think of the “core” of this Minnesota Twins team. 2021 however may determine whether that continues to be the case.Offensive Issues
Left handed hitters often struggle against same handed pitching and Kepler showed just how ugly this historical trend could get in 2020. In 47 at bats, Kepler mustered just 6 hits and posted a .128/.208/.170 line against southpaws after actually hitting them better than righties in 2019 with a .293/.356/.524 line. Plenty of players struggled to find their rhythm in the shortened season, but looking at Kepler’s career triple slash of .219/.288/.368 against left handed pitching suggests that his 2019 may have been a mirage.
His pull the ball in the air approach at the plate sets him up to hit the ball over the fence but really limits his batting average ceiling in the age of the shift. His career 10% walk rate isn’t awful, but it doesn’t offer much of a saving grace in the on base department either. Adding 6% to his K rate against lefties as his career shows gives Kepler little room to be a well rounded and truly consistent hitter.
All of this to say, throughout Kepler’s entire career besides 2019, he’s been a deeply flawed hitter. Despite being on the strong side of the platoon splits, continued struggles against left handed pitching would be hard to ignore if another player shows that they can produce regardless of their opponents handedness.
Up And Coming Competition
Alex Kirilloff needs no introduction at this point, but reports are also beginning to suggest that former 1st round pick Trevor Larnach might not be all that far behind him. Larnach is known for his balanced approach of controlling the strike zone and using all fields. He’s a highly touted hitter who to this point hasn’t shown a weakness to left handed pitching in his minor league career. His offensive profile is one that suggests he could avoid the massive cut in production that Kepler has shown as he matures in the MLB.
Defensively, Larnach is far from a gold glove defender in the corners. The former OSU first baseman stands at 6’4 and over 220 lb, lacking the raw athleticism of Max Kepler. That being said, the Twins used positioning to hide Jorge Polanco at shortstop and we saw the Oakland A’s turn Robbie Grossman into a Gold Glove finalist a few years ago. Defensive positioning has come a long way in baseball and having a center fielder like Byron Buxton can hide a lot of blemishes. Larnach’s defense should be adequate enough at the corners for at least the near future.
Max Kepler has been valuable to the Twins and will surely continue to be. Top prospects are approaching however, and if Kepler’s offensive output continues with his career trends outside of 2019, the bar for those prospects to clear may not be all that high. Max could rebound in 2021, but what if he doesn’t?
Kepler still has his incredibly team friendly contract attached which pays out only a bit over $20m over the next four years. On one hand, using him in a strong platoon/backup center field role wouldn’t be all that much of a waste of money. On the other, it’s a contract that other corner outfield needy teams would be very interested in. If the future of the outfield truly does consist of Kirilloff and Larnach, is Kepler’s left handed bat more valuable as a trade chip?
I still expect Max to bounce back from his 2020 performance, but I’m unsure to what degree. I expect Trevor Larnach to debut in 2021 and be a great hitter, but a performance strong enough to dethrone Kepler in right field is a long shot for any prospect. That being said, the Twins strong farm system has opened up a lot of possibilities for what the future of this team looks like. Do you think Max Kepler can continue being a cornerstone of this Twins core? Do you think Trevor Larnach could throw a wrench into those plans? Let us know below.
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12 Comments
Max really has only had the one good season when the ball was supposedly juiced so I think this article is spot on. Either they need to platoon him to get the most out of the bat or maybe Larnach is the ultimate answer.I really do love Max's defense in right and the HR power is definitely there but there are good bats on the way.He really does need a good year to prove he deserves his spot IMO.
With his contract and ability to play to center I think it would be tough to trade him as he would still have value even as a platoon bat or fourth outfielder but if the right deal came along I could see it.
I'm just glad that someone brought up that Max has competition.I feel as though, many people just assume Kepler is the guy because of his contract and ability to back up CF.I really hope Kepler stings the ball this year, but I'd hate to trade Larnach in a deal, watch him hit .300 and hit 20 HR's from afar, and us keep the Kepler that bats .220-.250 and hits 20 HR's.
If nothing else, he’s one of the more reliable guys on the team. He’ll give us 140 games of solid defense and 20-25 HRs. 140 games seems like a tall order for nearly any other position player at this point.
Corner OF will be the most interesting position area to watch over the next 2 years, and perhaps as soon as the trade deadline this year. It would be so much easier if Larnach batted righty to keep him and Max as 4th outfielder/platoon.
It feels like one of Kepler, Larnach or Kiriloff will end up getting traded. If we are after a big return it may need to be Kiriloff, but Max should also net a good return given his contract and it would help extend the Twins window with younger players controllable for more years.
I expect Kepler to bounce back in 2021 in a big way. He didn't even have 50 AB vs Lefties last year and he showed in 2019 that the potential is there.
Kepler's deal is actually $31.75M.
I would bet the FO has seen the OF situation a little differently than TD followers. Instead of trade depth, I think they saw the opportunity to end up with 3 corner OFers that collectively provide better offensive production. Rooker being RH provides the opportunity to rest one of them against tough LH pitching or use Rooker as the DH. This scenario also offers a couple other benefits.
The one probably most present in the minds of the FO is that no only could this combination be quite a bit more productive than Rosario/Kepler but the team could also be better off by reallocating the payroll.
In other words, Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker + free agent addition with savings >>> Kepler/Rosario. Of course, these players will also be under control for a longer period. We will see what happens with the CBA. The teams future is also likely gets better from whatever Kepler brings in trade.
That's only because you've been here before.
And don't forget that Kyle Garlick kills left handers. Why do you think the FO held on to him so tight? in case they need the platoon and Rooker needs more seasoning maybe.