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A Look at Brusdar Graterol’s Role for the Postseason and Beyond

With the exception of one bad outing (his first against Cleveland), flame-throwing prospect Brusdar Graterol has looked very good since being called up to join the Twins for the month of September. The velocity has always been there, but in Graterol’s most recent outing against Cleveland he took his pitching to another level. He averaged 99.8 mph on his sinker and threw the fastest pitch (at 101.9 mph) ever recorded in the history of the Minnesota Twins.
Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports
After getting plenty of weak contact but very few whiffs in his first few appearances, Graterol made Cleveland hitters look helpless as they flailed at his sliders. Since the one bad outing, Graterol has pitched well against Cleveland, Washington, and Chicago, allowing only one base runner (a home run hit by Chicago’s Zach Collins) in 4 1/3 innings while picking up five strikeouts.



What may be even more impressive than the velocity is the amount of movement Graterol gets on his fastball. Squaring up 100 mph fastballs is hard enough for a hitter, but when it is rapidly sinking the task becomes nearly impossible. To make matters even worse for Cleveland hitters, Graterol seemed to be able to throw his fastball wherever he wanted, regularly painting the corners as he did against a helpless Yasiel Puig, who struck out looking on a perfectly placed 101.2 mph sinker. Coupled with a slider that sits around 89 mph, Graterol has the potential to be unhittable. His confidence and swagger seem to grow with each appearance, and for good reason.



Graterol, of course, has been groomed to be a starter, and if he hadn’t missed the majority of 2019 with a shoulder injury, there is a good chance he would have long ago reached his innings limit. Graterol threw a career-high 102 innings in 2018 between high and low A-ball, but threw just 52 2/3 innings as a starter at Double-A in 2019 before missing time with his shoulder injury, and then pitched 8 1/3 innings between rehab in rookie ball and his promotion to AAA after moving to the pen. The Twins undoubtedly saw an opportunity for Graterol to reach the majors and potentially help the club down the stretch, and shorter appearances as a reliever were a way to make it a reality.

The question of interest for the time being is whether or not Graterol will be added to the postseason roster. Every appearance will be crucial for the 21-year-old to further sell his case to the Twins front office, but if he continues to pitch as he has of late, adding Graterol is a no-brainer. As things stand, the Twins appear to have five bullpen “locks” in Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffy, Trevor May, and Zack Littell, but beyond them Graterol seems to be the favorite. He has electric stuff, and with only Jose Berrios and Jake Odorrizi currently looking like viable postseason starters, the Twins may go with the “opener” strategy and should have plenty of roster space for relievers.

Regardless of what happens for the remainder of this season, Graterol’s future with the Twins looks bright. There are, however, questions as to what his future role will be. Although Graterol looks the part of a shutdown closer, he has been a starter and would have incredible value as a potential number one or two to help anchor the Twins rotation of the future. To be a frontline starter he will probably need more than his current two-pitch mix. Graterol does throw a changeup, but it seems to be a work in progress. The only home run he has given up in the MLB was on the lone changeup he threw in his last appearance against Chicago. On the bright side, he is confident enough to at least show his changeup at the major league level and Wes Johnson and crew can help guide him along.

It will be interesting to see what Derek Favley and company decide to do with Graterol in 2020. They would presumably like to give Graterol every possibility to be a starter and that might mean starting the year in AAA Rochester unless the team feels very confident in Graterol’s ability to begin the season in the big leagues. Graterol was dominant as a starter this year before his injury as he pitched to a 1.71 ERA in his 52 2/3 AA innings, all prior to his 21st birthday, so the ability is certainly present.

Another consideration for 2020 will be the amount of innings Graterol is allowed to pitch. After missing all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery, Graterol pitched 40 innings in 2017, 102 in 2018, and will not reach a hundred innings in 2019 due to the aforementioned shoulder injury. Therefore, it may make sense for the Twins to begin the season with Graterol in the bullpen in 2020 and slowly transition him to a starting role as the year goes on, which would help to limit Graterol’s innings pitched, ensuring that he would be available down the stretch. This could be done at the MLB level if the Twins so desire, giving the bullpen a boost early in the year and potentially strengthening the starting rotation as the season progresses.

Graterol’s health and effectiveness will be paramount in deciding what his future will entail, but whatever the Twins decide to do with Brusdar Graterol for the remainder of this season and beyond, it’s exciting to finally have a 100 mph flamethrower that we can call our own. With a little luck and a third pitch, Minnesota could have a really nice rotation piece to slot next to Jose Berrios in the near future, and if that doesn’t come to fruition, having another potent bullpen arm is a nice consolation prize.

What do you think? Will the Twins find a spot for Graterol in the postseason pen? Where do you think he will begin his 2020 season and what do you see as his future role? Please leave your comments below.

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58 Comments

1. Innings shouldn't really be an issue.

2. What may be an issue is his throwing motion (to mine untrained eye). I'm no expert, but, it seems like he throws with a lot of exertion on his arm, and not using his legs as much. Again, I'm completely ignorant and am open to scrutiny regarding this position. But, can someone break his throwing motion down for me and make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside about it?!

Pick me....pick me....(waiving my hand furiously)

 

Hell yes he needs to be on the post season roster and...

 

....HELL YES he needs to be a starter in 2020.

 

hint...the Ownership is not going to drop 150 mil plus for an elite FA pitcher (we just got overbid by a crazy offer...again!...we'll get them next time)

 

... and the FO does not appear to be inclined to trade any of their real prospects (my precious...oh my precious) 

 

so...let's just say there is A LOT riding on his and a select few others progression

    • mikelink45, birddog, jud6312 and 2 others like this
FO will make correct decision for this year’s playoffs. Same in 2020. Graterol is a huge potential asset going forward and will be treated accordingly.

Can anyone tell me why limiting innings pitched in a season has any validity at all.  Of course Graterol should make the post season roster.  Limit of two innings every 3 days just like a lot of the relievers.  Next year Berrios, resign Odorizzi, resign Pineda, start Graterol and give May another chance.  If not, I will say Dobnak has looked better in both of his last two starts than Gibson has all year. Great control, hit 95 with a great breaking ball and change up.   

    • Huskertwin and Twins1964 like this
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Only Here in Negative
Sep 20 2019 11:17 PM

 

 

 

Can anyone tell me why limiting innings pitched in a season has any validity at all.  Of course Graterol should make the post season roster.  Limit of two innings every 3 days just like a lot of the relievers.  Next year Berrios, resign Odorizzi, resign Pineda, start Graterol and give May another chance.  If not, I will say Dobnak has looked better in both of his last two starts than Gibson has all year. Great control, hit 95 with a great breaking ball and change up.   

 

There have been numerous studies that show that when guys make drastic jumps in the number of innings pitched, they strain their arms and get injured. Those are by no means definitive and there are people who disagree (or agree but disagree with approaches to dealing with this) but there is validity.

 

One of the issues for Brusdar starting next year is that his injury this year and time in the pen mean that he isn't likely to ramp up his innings much this year. It might not be a good idea to throw him out as a 180 innings starter next year. You may see the Twins start him in the pen and then stretch him out as they need someone as the year goes along. 130 innings may be solid and then they can work him up to a full-time starter.

 

Kyle Gibson has had numerous better performances this year. Eight innings of two hit ball against these Royals Jun 14th springs to mind. That doesn't take away from Drobnak but we should not forget what a healthy Kyle Gibson can do. We also shouldn't forget that Drobnak is young and came out of nowhere. There's not much of a scouting book on him and teams will adjust as one starts to develop. Drobnak may still be great when that happens. Or he may become more of a 5th to 7thstarter or a bullpen piece.

 

Kyle Gibson's contract is going to be fascinating. A team could talk themselves into illness as the context for his struggles this year. That said, he is going to be 32 and his success has been fleeting. He could be a great value pickup or money flushed down the toilet. I wouldn't mind the Twins taking a shot if the years and money is right but won't be sad if someone gives him 3 years and it isn't the Twins.

    • Dantes929, DocBauer, gbg and 4 others like this

 

There have been numerous studies that show that when guys make drastic jumps in the number of innings pitched, they strain their arms and get injured. Those are by no means definitive and there are people who disagree (or agree but disagree with approaches to dealing with this) but there is validity.

 

One of the issues for Brusdar starting next year is that his injury this year and time in the pen mean that he isn't likely to ramp up his innings much this year. It might not be a good idea to throw him out as a 180 innings starter next year. You may see the Twins start him in the pen and then stretch him out as they need someone as the year goes along. 130 innings may be solid and then they can work him up to a full-time starter.

 

Kyle Gibson has had numerous better performances this year. Eight innings of two hit ball against these Royals Jun 14th springs to mind. That doesn't take away from Drobnak but we should not forget what a healthy Kyle Gibson can do. We also shouldn't forget that Drobnak is young and came out of nowhere. There's not much of a scouting book on him and teams will adjust as one starts to develop. Drobnak may still be great when that happens. Or he may become more of a 5th to 7thstarter or a bullpen piece.

 

Kyle Gibson's contract is going to be fascinating. A team could talk themselves into illness as the context for his struggles this year. That said, he is going to be 32 and his success has been fleeting. He could be a great value pickup or money flushed down the toilet. I wouldn't mind the Twins taking a shot if the years and money is right but won't be sad if someone gives him 3 years and it isn't the Twins.

You can't get a whole lot better than Dobnak's last two starts.I have alwaysdefended Gibson in the past and I was mostly kidding about Drobnak (and May for that matter) but this year Gibson has had 9 quality starts out of 30 and none since the beginning of August. The major league average for quality starts is 50%. I hope Gibson returns to health, pitches for the Twins and does great but Drobnak appears to have a lot of the same stuff so I wonder what the Vegas odds would be on who will be better going forward.  As far as the studies go please share because I have searched for them, asked for them and have never found any of them.  I just can't imagine that a guy throws 120 innings, takes 4 months off, builds arm strength up to pitch 100 pitches an outing and now can throw only 140 innings as if what he did a year before has built up his arm by 10%. So much throwing in between and innings and conditions alone change not to mention the difference in body types.  By the way I don't necessarily believe in the 100 pitch limit thing but do believe in building the arm up slowly each season. In fact, it seems like in ST they go from 20 pitches to 100 rather rapidly. I also believe in what I see Gibson doing which is keeping the body and arm loose between innings rather than just sitting and watching until the offense is done.  

    • MN_ExPat likes this
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msukirbycarew
Sep 21 2019 01:42 AM
Have radke and Santana come and help him. What woyld it be a 88 to 95 change and a wipe out slider equala cy young with that heat.
    • nokomismod and D.C Twins like this
I love how this thread started with Graterol and is now fixated on Gibson. The horse has died, been butchered, left out to rot, thrown in the rubbish and incinerated....stop kicking it!

Graterol’s potential use brings to mind how we treated Santana in his early early days; bring him along slow and then unleash The Beast. If Graterol is this good (though referencing only 4+ innings of excellence doesn’t exactly help the argument), he needs to be in the majors. It’s that simple. If we’re worried about his pitch count, just use him as a reliever next year and then bring him around in 2021. It’s better to do that than leave a weapon in AAA.

Oh, and one comment about his pitches....when you throw 101 with that movement, you don’t need 3 or 4 great pitches at 21. Just scroll back through MLB history to see a lot of examples of guys who just brought heat for a few years until they figured out how to pitch. Guys don’t come out of the minors throwing like Max Scherzer does today.
    • mikelink45, gbg and Jeff_M like this

 

  Next year Berrios, resign Odorizzi, resign Pineda, start Graterol and give May another chance.  If not, I will say Dobnak has looked better in both of his last two starts than Gibson has all year. Great control, hit 95 with a great breaking ball and change up.   

 

1) Berrios

2) Pineda

3) FA... Dallas Kuechel

4) Dobnak's spot to lose in-season

5) Graterol's spot to lose in ST (Sign FA Drew Pomeranz- add some "Wes Magic") "Loser" of the 3 goes to the pen/AAA.

 

QO for Odo (he declines)

 

7th Inning- May/Duffey

8th Inning-Trade for Ken Giles

9th Inning- Rogers

 

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Richard Swerdlick
Sep 21 2019 05:30 AM

Don't forget Sudden Sam Dyson

    • Dantes929 likes this
Did I miss something last evening. Not to pick nits, but I think he gave up 3 hits? In one inning. He has a solid smooth look to his delivery, and I do think there's plenty there, but it ain't there yet. While his stuff is overpowering, the results aren't.
    • SQUIRREL, DocBauer and Shaitan like this

 

There have been numerous studies that show that when guys make drastic jumps in the number of innings pitched, they strain their arms and get injured. Those are by no means definitive and there are people who disagree (or agree but disagree with approaches to dealing with this) but there is validity.

 

Tom Verducci at SI has been pushing this for years, but that stats haven't borne it out. It makes a great deal of intuitive sense, but it doesn't mean that it's a real thing.

 

I like Graterol in the bullpen for this offseason, but I want him starting next year. The changeup needs work, and he'll need a 3rd offering to real lock it in as a starter in MLB, but I think he can do it. And while I'd love it to be the change, he could also be a guy who makes it work with 2 different fastballs and that nasty slider if the change doesn't come around.

 

Let him compete for the rotation out of spring training, and if the change or other 43rd offering isn't ready for prime time, he can keep working in AAA (which may be a better training ground for pitchers than it was with them using the MLB ball now) until he's ready. I think he's got a solid chance to be starting next year. I think any innings limit should be based on how his shoulder is doing during the year, not based on arbitrary numbers.

    • mikelink45, DocBauer and Rigby like this

There have been numerous studies that show that when guys make drastic jumps in the number of innings pitched, they strain their arms and get injured. Those are by no means definitive and there are people who disagree (or agree but disagree with approaches to dealing with this) but there is validity.

One of the issues for Brusdar starting next year is that his injury this year and time in the pen mean that he isn't likely to ramp up his innings much this year. It might not be a good idea to throw him out as a 180 innings starter next year. You may see the Twins start him in the pen and then stretch him out as they need someone as the year goes along. 130 innings may be solid and then they can work him up to a full-time starter.

Kyle Gibson has had numerous better performances this year. Eight innings of two hit ball against these Royals Jun 14th springs to mind. That doesn't take away from Drobnak but we should not forget what a healthy Kyle Gibson can do. We also shouldn't forget that Drobnak is young and came out of nowhere. There's not much of a scouting book on him and teams will adjust as one starts to develop. Drobnak may still be great when that happens. Or he may become more of a 5th to 7th starter or a bullpen piece.

Kyle Gibson's contract is going to be fascinating. A team could talk themselves into illness as the context for his struggles this year. That said, he is going to be 32 and his success has been fleeting. He could be a great value pickup or money flushed down the toilet. I wouldn't mind the Twins taking a shot if the years and money is right but won't be sad if someone gives him 3 years and it isn't the Twins.


If there are numerous studies, then it shouldn't be hard for you to link just one of them. Because I've heard this theory a thousand times, but have never seen any hard data to back it up. And I've looked.
    • Dantes929 likes this

I love the swagger he is developing. He ahs to continue to work HARD on location. Reports will be pulled and people where see where he is msot comfortable throwing pitches, especially his 100 mph ones, and some batters can adjust accordingly. Yes, he can throw the ball by batters. I expect that he will get four more opportunities to shine. Depending on what they Twins think they need for a third rotation spot (do they keep Gibson on the roster of IL him), he does have an outsize chance.

 

Tom Verducci at SI has been pushing this for years, but that stats haven't borne it out. It makes a great deal of intuitive sense, but it doesn't mean that it's a real thing.

 

I like Graterol in the bullpen for this offseason, but I want him starting next year. The changeup needs work, and he'll need a 3rd offering to real lock it in as a starter in MLB, but I think he can do it. And while I'd love it to be the change, he could also be a guy who makes it work with 2 different fastballs and that nasty slider if the change doesn't come around.

 

Let him compete for the rotation out of spring training, and if the change or other 43rd offering isn't ready for prime time, he can keep working in AAA (which may be a better training ground for pitchers than it was with them using the MLB ball now) until he's ready. I think he's got a solid chance to be starting next year. I think any innings limit should be based on how his shoulder is doing during the year, not based on arbitrary numbers.

 

Great post. About where I think the Twins see it (hopefully).

 

Just have him spend serious time doing the Berrios training regimen with Jose in Puerto Rico, And have him spend the remaining spare time working on a change with Johan. Brusdar will become a beast..

    • msukirbycarew likes this

 

 

Don't forget Sudden Sam Dyson

 

I'm trying to do just that. At this point, he's like a Matt Capps fading fever dream.

 

Right now? A 2020 lotto ticket if he somehow avoids serious surgery.

With the velocity these guys now achieve we are going to have to handle them differently than in the past. I do believe it would be unwise to expect 150 plus innings from the Bruiser next year. It is also going to be an important strategy going forward to not waste these young arm's bullets in the minors. I don't think we know how long health can be maintained when human boundaries are pushed like this. Therefore I'm on board with the above mentioned strategy of starting him in the MLB pen next year while letting him work with the staff on another pitch and then transition him mid season to more of a starter role. That is the beauty of the new flexibility with which pitchers are now handled. Go from reliever to primary to starter.
    • Dantes929 likes this

MOD NOTE: Please keep to topic. We already have many threads discussing Gibson and discussing the BP. Graterol ... that is the topic ... will he be on the post season roster, should he be, what will his role be moving forward? Please keep it there ... at least for the first couple of pages of discussion.

 

Thanks.

 

If there are numerous studies, then it shouldn't be hard for you to link just one of them. Because I've heard this theory a thousand times, but have never seen any hard data to back it up. And I've looked.

I haven't looked lately but a couple years ago I looked pretty hard as well.I have no science backing up my position either. Just seems that guys are just as likely if not more so to blow out their arms in ST as they are in inning 190.  

 

Tom Verducci at SI has been pushing this for years, but that stats haven't borne it out. It makes a great deal of intuitive sense, but it doesn't mean that it's a real thing.

 

 

 

 The intuitive sense to me is to warm up properly and focus on form and build up arm strength gradually at the beginning of the year.Its also to shut down guys or skip rotations not based on innings but based on feedback. If a guy appears to have some dead issues or some strain thenease up the burden and evaluate. Careful monitoring especially of young guys just makes more sense to me than policy.If Bert Blyleven came up today they would say lets start him off with 110 innings and then build him up to 200 innings over the next 4 years.So 110 instead of the 218 innings he actually pitched at age 19,135 instead of the 278 he actually pitched at age 20,170 instead of the 287 he actually pitched at age 21, and 190 instead of the actual 325 he pitched at age 22. Yes, I'm cherry picking but guys used to throw a lot more innings and SEEMED to have fewer arm complications. The guys having arm problems now seem to have their arm problems spread out pretty evenly. Some in ST, some in the 1st month, some in the 2nd month, etc.but of course when it happens at inning 140 someone can say "see, told you so. He should have been shut down after 130".You can argue that guys throw harder now but the counter to that is first yeah, so injuries are going to be unavoidable, period. Or you can say "Hey Brusdar, instead of us trying to build up your innings of throwing 102, mph why don't we just have you settle in at 97 mph and build innings from there." 

    • 70charger likes this

I think any innings limit should be based on how his shoulder is doing during the year, not based on arbitrary numbers.


His innings limit as a starter this year based on how his shoulder was doing was 52.2. That would get him into May. The year before it was 102...maybe the all-star break. As a starter, he’s been shut down every season of his professional career...not by arbitrary innings limits...by issues with his arm/shoulder. I get everyone wanting him to be a starter...me too. But I’d rather have him available the entire year as a reliever than constantly having to shut him down as a starter.
    • SQUIRREL, Dantes929, Sconnie and 1 other like this

 

With the velocity these guys now achieve we are going to have to handle them differently than in the past. I do believe it would be unwise to expect 150 plus innings from the Bruiser next year. It is also going to be an important strategy going forward to not waste these young arm's bullets in the minors. I don't think we know how long health can be maintained when human boundaries are pushed like this. Therefore I'm on board with the above mentioned strategy of starting him in the MLB pen next year while letting him work with the staff on another pitch and then transition him mid season to more of a starter role. That is the beauty of the new flexibility with which pitchers are now handled. Go from reliever to primary to starter.

Everything you say makes sense especially the part about not knowing how pushing human boundaries affects health. I think it is unknowable in terms of policy. One size doesn't fit all.I hear Graterol hits 101 mph and I cringe a little bit.The potential for that one throw to do damage feels like the equivalent of 10 extra innings over the course of the year throwing 97 mph. Again, no science to refute or agree.

    • wabene likes this
Photo
partial_lattice
Sep 21 2019 09:33 AM
Just tracking innings pitched in MLB has yet to show increased injury risk in statistical analyses, but it's hard to say if that is because of teams being too cautious or using other indicators of fatigue/injury risk or otherwise. It is generally accepted that increased fatigue* is associated with increased injury risk.** It would be pretty shocking if there wasn't some pitching load associated with increased injury risk, but we have no idea if that's at 150, 250 or 350 innings.

* I'm using loose language here as fatigue is considered an important concept in the training literature but is poorly defined.
** Example review: https://www.ncbi.nlm...les/PMC5394138/
    • Hosken Bombo Disco likes this

 

His innings limit as a starter this year based on how his shoulder was doing was 52.2. That would get him into May. The year before it was 102...maybe the all-star break. As a starter, he’s been shut down every season of his professional career...not by arbitrary innings limits...by issues with his arm/shoulder. I get everyone wanting him to be a starter...me too. But I’d rather have him available the entire year as a reliever than constantly having to shut him down as a starter.

Yes but it gets back to my other point. If he is in the pen I want him throwing 99 or more. If he is in the rotation I would rather him settle in at 96-98 with more focus on other pitches and command. Who knows the right path?He might have arm issues in one case but not the other or arm issues regardless or no arm issues regardless. Is 70 appearances as a relieverbetter than 30 as a starter? Maybe, maybe not.  

    • SQUIRREL and laloesch like this
I think there may be some usefulness to asking these guys to dial it back a little say 97 in Brusdar's case as Dante suggested but I'm not sure it will happen. Look at Dyson. He pressed through pain for two years in apparent silence. There i$ much on the line and the lure of 100 mph and the riches that come with it will be too much to resist. As this era plays out we will aquire the data and learn the answers to these questions.
Despite his immense talent and potential, I never really saw him helping in the post season. He's adjusting to ML hitters and the ML ball in a very short period of time. Looking not so great last night is part of his very SSS.

That being said, Gibson's illness now has me thinking he may make the post season roster as a wild card option, hoping he can get hot.

He absolutely needs to be a SP come 2020. Working on "pitching" in general and a 3rd offering...whatever that pitch may be...is important. Between 6 man rotation options, skipped starts, and even some bullpen time, I see no reason he can't jump to 120IP or so in 2020.

I hadn't honest thought about his being in the Twins pen and transitioning like Santana did. Didn't Liriano do the same??? I guess that is for ST to determine, ML level or Rochester to begin the season.

As far as injury, IMO only, it's about being a large, strong young man growing in to his body. He was simply not this tall or filled out when the Twins signed him. Not even close.

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