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Front Page: Is Homer Bailey the Next Martin Perez?

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8 Twins Who Could be on the Move for 2020

The 2019 season has come to an abrupt end after 101 wins. This means we may have seen some players in a Twins uniform for the final time. With a lot of question marks about the rotation and a few key position players, I take a look at who should come back and who should be on the move.
Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
The key Twins who could be moving on to a new team for 2020 are listed here.
(* = option or ARB eligible)
  • C Jason Castro
  • 1B C.J. Cron*
  • 2B Jonathan Schoop
  • SP Kyle Gibson
  • SP Michael Pineda
  • SP Martin Perez*
  • SP Jake Odorizzi
  • RP Sergio Romo
Nelson Cruz was originally on this list, but as expected, the Twins have picked up his option for 2020.



C Jason Castro
Castro began the season as the starting catcher, but Mitch Garver took Minnesota by storm with one of the Twins best hitting seasons as a catcher. That mixed with Castro’s struggles in the second half (.196/.333/.299) make it unlikely that he will return. He can probably find a starting job somewhere in free agency as a left- handed hitting defensive catcher. The Twins could also bring him back on a one-year deal if he does decide to stay and that wouldn't hurt.

1B C.J. Cron
Cron will still be under control next year, but it comes down to if the Twins want to pay for his final season or let him go to a new team like the Rays did last season. He suffered a thumb injury this past season that altered his production a lot. He had a .700 OPS in the second half and a .685 OPS vs RHP on the season. He plays a decent first base and crushes left-handers. With Alex Kirilloff on the horizon, I think Cron comes back for 2020 but could end up in a platoon role at some point. This could also depend on the Twins plan for Sano to either stay at 3B or move to 1B in the future.

2B Jonathan Schoop
The emergence of Luis Arraez along with the drop off from Schoop made it fairly clear who the starting second baseman will be next season. The Twins will likely ride with Arraez on Opening Day next season, and Schoop will definitely be able to find a starting job somewhere else in 2020. He was a solid addition and the Twins probably got what was expected from him.

SP Kyle Gibson
Moving on to pitching, Gibson is one of the longest-tenured Twins after seven seasons that started off rough, but ultimately ended well for him to land a nice deal next season. He had a 3.72 ERA from the 2017 trade deadline until now even with some unfortunate health concerns. He will probably get a multi-year deal with someone other than the Minnesota Twins and all of you who hate Kyle will be extremely happy.

SP Michael Pineda
Despite having his 2019 success stained by his suspension for a possible PED masking agent, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to bring Pineda back for next season. His 3.04 second half ERA, as he basically carried the rotation, was extremely impressive so he could be back. The Twins will likely bring two starters from this season back, and Pineda has a good chance to be one of them.

SP Jake Odorizzi
The Twins acquired Odorizzi before the 2018 season for AA infielder Jermaine Palacios who had a .192 AVG this past season. Odorizzi has produced 6.9 fWAR over those two seasons and was a 2019 All-Star. The Twins will likely send a qualifying offer around $18 million and if a team doesn’t want to lose a draft pick for him then I think Odo could be back. He could also come back on the QO because he can't be offered the QO two years in a row so he may come back to build his free agency stock for 2021.

SP Martin Perez
With a $7.5 million team option for next season, I don’t expect to see Perez back for the 2020 season. Maybe I can get behind seeing him as a relief pitcher, but the Twins should definitely be moving on from him in the rotation. From June to October he allowed a 5.93 ERA and a .831 OPS so I would hope the Martin Perez experiment has come to an end.

RP Sergio Romo
I challenge you to find one Twins fan who does not love Sergio Romo. You can’t, so don’t even try. The 36-year-old reliever would be a valuable asset who I believe will be back for 2020. His veteran presence mixed with his playoff/World Series experience and his electric energy on and off the field are all tools that would fit right in on this young team. Plus he is also an effective late inning reliever so that’s a plus.

Alright, now that I have finished going through all the players, here are my predictions:

Returning for 2020: Cron, Pineda, Odorizzi, Romo
Heading to a new team: Castro, Schoop, Gibson, Perez

As the off-season progresses, each one of these players will be monitored closely by everyone here at Twins Daily, so follow us on Twitter and be looking out for more in- depth articles about each player. Leave a comment here saying who you would like to see come back for 2020.

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83 Comments

The Twins will probably have to add 5-7 (at the msot) new guys. With all the pitchers currently on the roster, you wonder how many guys they will honestly add who MIGHT NOT play in the majors in 2019.

 

To the list above, don't see the Twins sticking with Dyson, unless they can work out a reasonable two-year deal.

 

Trevor Hildenberger will be gone. Ryne Harper might be, too.

 

With Wade and Cave and anyone else, no need to keep LaMarre and Miller on the 40-man roster. Torreyes will also be jettisoned, but aybe brought back on a minor league, if he wishes to stay with the Twins.

 

Looking at like 14 spots. And the Twins still do have to look at Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, Wade (or Cave). What to do with Nick Gordon (replacement for Adrianza?).

 

 

 

Also, has Adrianza maybe priced himself out of the picture for the moment? 

    • DocBauer and gagu like this

 

he ends up in NY, gets healthy and gets 16 wins for their team (including two against the Twins, <in the playoffs> of course).

Heh... FTFY.

    • Oldgoat_MN likes this

Well, I kind of have to like Gibson's section beginning with the words, "Moving on..."

    • 70charger likes this

 

I don't understand why people want Pineda, Odorizzi, Perez, and Gibson back.At some point one has to realize that if they do things the same way, the results will be the same (0 for the postseason.)

 

This pitching staff needs major overhaul, and the biggest elephant in the room is that Berrios has not improved in 3 major league seasons...I hope that the new regime realizes that and makes drastic changes.They need 2 pitchers better than Berrios to compete in the postseason.

 

Cron was third in the majors in xwOBA-wOBA and not sure that there are any cheaper better performing free agents or that any of the farm solutions are ready for a postseason contender.

I'm not opposed to keeping Cron around, either. He did OK, and hit some clutch dingers when healthy, but he really dragged in the 2nd half with that injury. I kind of see him as a Schoop-style stopgap, until one of those young sluggers (can Kiriloff-Larnach-Rooker play 1B?) forces his way onto the squad.

    • Oldgoat_MN likes this

 


This pitching staff needs major overhaul, and the biggest elephant in the room is that Berrios has not improved in 3 major league seasons...I hope that the new regime realizes that and makes drastic changes.They need 2 pitchers better than Berrios to compete in the postseason.

 

A guy who can win 14 games and pitch to a sub-4.00 FIP, while striking out almost a batter per inning AND log 200 innings in the AMERICAN LEAGUE is a very, very good pitcher. That's a horse. Justin Verlander's don't grow on trees.

 

Even the Astros and their mighty rotation is on the brink of elimination. How are the Tampa Bay Rays doing it? By sending out Charlie Morton (great free agent pickup), Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough and Tyler Glasnow - don't know where the last two guys came from, but it was certainly out of nowhere! And some of them are following "openers" all year.

 

I think the Twins need to get creative and start using the Kevin Cash blueprint. Spend some money on decent middle relievers next year and use them as openers.

    • Sconnie and DocBauer like this

The Twins currently have 42 players on their 40-man roster.I expect them to remove about 12 players to get to 30.Removing 12 (you have listed 7 above, not including Cron) will see some quality players at risk of being gone from the organization. 

 

Add at least 3 starting pitchers, one reliever and a 2nd/3rd catcher and you are back up to 35.That leaves 5 spots for adds from players who are Rule 5 eligible this December.At last count, I had 7 who were considered strong candidates to be added (Blankenhorn, Colina, Jax, Rijo, Raley, Duran and Javier).Its gonna be tight.Very likely someone we all like is going to be headed elsewhere on draft day, or sooner when DFA'd off the 40-man.  

    • wabene likes this
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pierre75275
Oct 10 2019 05:51 AM
I still think you let Cron and Castro walk.
Assuming Yasmani Grandel mutual option is declined by either him or the brewers, sign him.
You then have one of the most flexible rosters in MLB with a bench of:
Marwin
Adrianza
Williams Austidillo
Cave/Wade
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SgtSchmidt11
Oct 10 2019 06:26 AM

 

I still think you let Cron and Castro walk.
Assuming Yasmani Grandel mutual option is declined by either him or the brewers, sign him.
You then have one of the most flexible rosters in MLB with a bench of:
Marwin
Adrianza
Williams Austidillo
Cave/Wade

Why would the Twins sign Grandal to play 1B?Somebody is going to pay him to play C.

    • DannySD likes this
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pierre75275
Oct 10 2019 06:57 AM
He would primarily play catcher. He played first base for the Brewers this year. Garver and Sano could also play first base
    • bighat likes this

My wish list:

Castro: Yes (as a low cost backup)

Cron: Yes 

Schoop: No 

Gibson: No 

Big Mike: Yes

Odorizzi: Yes

Perez: No

Romo: Yes

    • Twins33, 70charger, Kelly Vance and 3 others like this

 

I don't understand why people want Pineda, Odorizzi, Perez, and Gibson back.At some point one has to realize that if they do things the same way, the results will be the same (0 for the postseason.)

 

This pitching staff needs major overhaul, and the biggest elephant in the room is that Berrios has not improved in 3 major league seasons...I hope that the new regime realizes that and makes drastic changes.They need 2 pitchers better than Berrios to compete in the postseason.

 

Cron was third in the majors in xwOBA-wOBA and not sure that there are any cheaper better performing free agents or that any of the farm solutions are ready for a postseason contender.

This is so accurate. Sure, Odorizzi and Pineda were fine, but there's certainly room to upgrade, specifically on Odo if his price gets too high. 

 

I'm tired of all the excuses for Gibson. He's not a bad pitcher, but he's 32 years old. Why he still gets treated like some prospect who might still figure it out is baffling. 

 

Spot on for Berrios. I keep hoping for this big step forward but it's the same old same. Again, not a bad pitcher at all but expectations are too high for him. 

Buxton and Sano are interesting ones. I believe Buxton is just one more injury away from being traded. He is a great talent but if he can only play a half season or less, I think Twins would be best to move him.

Sano--if they could parlay him into a trade for a top line starter, I would make that trade. Sano for me is one of the most frustrating hitters on the team. No question he has mammoth power, but as we saw in the post season, he still has those stretches where he can't hit sand on the beach.

 

Tigers don’t change their stripes. KG has always been an obstinate head case. Twins won’t pay him what his elevated self worth thinks is due him. Wes Johnson and staff can spend their time more effectively than trying to get KG to change.

 

Do you have any evidence for that statement? Because if not, that just seems like a case of sour grapes.

    • SQUIRREL, USAFChief, luckylager and 6 others like this

Good essay but I really object to the quote - "He will probably get a multi-year deal with someone other than the Minnesota Twins and all of you who hate Kyle will be extremely happy." 

 

I did not like his performance, even at his best I did not trust him in crucial games, but I do not know him and thus it is not personal, it is what baseball is - business.  

I would let everyone go except Odorizzi.With a finish like we had we need new people to come in who can move us to the next level.After the Pineda let down I do not resign him.I do not care if Perez would move to the pen, he would be out. 

 

The teams that let Schoop and Cron go last year saw what we should see this year - there are other options.Besides Arraez we have Gordon for 2B.At first base we have Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach and if we move Sano it is really crowded.

 

Personally I do not move Sano.Who else do we have for 3B that can give us positive results and not just some better fielding?  

 

Because I do not trust the FO to move on pitchers I would see Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol, one of the pick-em group of rookies who auditioned this year and one FA in the rotation. 

 

Astudillo will be the first half back up catcher and then, unless he is hitting the cover off the ball we will see Jeffers come up and eventually 1B could be Garver.

 

    • bighat likes this

Challenging group, lots of reasonable opinions on either side for a lot of these guys.

 

 

C Jason Castro: I'd like him back, but I think he gets offered a longer term deal elsewhere (2+an option, or even straight 3 year) and the Twins probably shouldn't go there with Garver stepping forward. If he's interested in a 1 year deal or 1+1, I'd do it.

1B C.J. Cron: I liked bringing him in last season and wouldn't mind him coming back, but I think the team moves on. Rooker may be ready to take on the job and there are other in-house options (Marwin can play there, allowing you to carry another OF, Sano can play there as way to get Marwin time at 3B or Adrianza in the lineup) so I think they look at the salary & the production and move along. I'm ok with that.

2B Jonathan Schoop: Did fine this year and was a very smart signing, but Arraez took this job by the throat, and Nick Gordon is waiting in the wings for depth. He moves on, everyone agrees.

 

SP Kyle Gibson: Oh, Kyle. I was so ready to believe in you and illness just wrecked your season, even though you somehow got 29 starts. I think someone looks at his peripherals, the illness this season and take a flyer on last season being who he is and not a fluke season. They may be right. I dunno if it's the Twins or if it should be the Twins. It will be really interesting if he sits on the market for a long time. I think the longer he goes without a deal, the more likely he is to come back to MN where he's comfortable and liked. But I really can't predict the market on him

SP Michael Pineda: I'd bring him back on a 1+1 or 2 year deal, but dammit I want a bit of a discount considering he's suspended for 60 games and we already paid him to rehab. I think he's more likely to be a better pitcher than Gibson next season, but missing the first half is...not great for this team. I think you choose one or the other, not both.

SP Martin Perez: Nope. The change in approach worked for a while, then people adjusted and he didn't have anywhere else to go. I don't think he's effective as a reliever (control is not good enough, stuff is not dominant enough to make up for the BBs). Nice idea, worked for a while, time to move on.

 

SP Jake Odorizzi: Yes. I'd try for 3 years, $45-50M maybe 3 plus an option (vests if he hits certain goals, otherwise is a team option?). I'd consider going as high as $18M AAV and I'd make the QO. I don't think anyone makes a 5 year offer on him, so maybe he does the deal with the Twins for 3 years of security. If he bets on himself and does 1 year, that's ok too, only an overpay if he regresses back to 2017-18; fine value if he's the '15,'16,'19 version and 1 year doesn't hurt you.

RP Sergio Romo: I'm fine with returning him; $2-3M for a reliever is ok and if it turns out he's cooked you can move on from it with minimal impact. As long as his knee isn't going to explode off his leg, he can probably keep flipping that 82 mph slider at hitters until he's 50. But it would be nice to have another reliable lefty in the 'pen so bringing Romo back feels more like a roster issue than a cost or effectiveness one. 

    • Sconnie, DocBauer, gagu and 2 others like this

 

Dyson: Not mentioned, but I'm including him here. The Twins cou,d easily walk away. But they could also do a split deal, like they did with Pineda, and sign him to a "small" 2020 contract, hoping for the best, with a 2021 option with incentives in mind.

 

I was thinking this at first, but with a shoulder injury I just don't know.

 

Also, has Adrianza maybe priced himself out of the picture for the moment? 

 

I hope not. I understand that finances play a role, but good teams don't just let good depth walk away. I also doubt Ehire's hit enough HR to price himself out. HR and AVG still dominate arbitration.

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Battle ur tail off
Oct 10 2019 09:28 AM

 

 

 

 

 

Also, has Adrianza maybe priced himself out of the picture for the moment? 

 

Boy, not if I am the GM. Adrianza has been an extremely solid guy for this team in his time here. He's not going to break the bank either way, I don't think. He's arbitration eligible, so he can still be here on a 1-year deal. No way they get rid of him and if they do, I think that would be the definition of Pohlad Pocket Protecting.

For reference, per mlbtraderumors.Their arbitration estimates:

 

Twins (10)

Sam Dyson – $6.4MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
C.J. Cron – $7.7MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM

    • USAFChief, 70charger and Sconnie like this
Just read a BR report on the top 10 FA starting pitchers. The 3 Twins FA’s are all listed in the 5 thru 10 range. For those insistent on a complete overhaul, the question is, “where will you find someone better”? 6 or 7 years at $200M+ for Cole isn’t happening. 5 yrs at $120m for Wheeler or MadBum isn’t likely either. How happy should we all be that we didn’t get Darvish? Gibson and Pineda are the type of arms that can be gotten on decent deals. I think they will have to overpay to get Odorizzi back, but I think they should I hope the bring 2 or 3 of them back and pull off a trade for a younger arm (Rosario as a centerpiece).
Their biggest shortcoming is not pitching, but infield defense followed by the ability to score runs other than via HR.
    • Oldgoat_MN, Sconnie, DocBauer and 2 others like this
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Battle ur tail off
Oct 10 2019 09:47 AM

 

For reference, per mlbtraderumors.Their arbitration estimates:

 

Twins (10)

Sam Dyson – $6.4MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
C.J. Cron – $7.7MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM

 

 

And that right there is why now is the time to go all in. Lots of productive guys there that are playing for cheap. 

    • Oldgoat_MN, Sconnie and wabene like this
Photo
diehardtwinsfan
Oct 10 2019 10:25 AM

Castro: If they can get him for a year, I'd do it. The question to me is whether we're comfortable with a Garver/Turtle combo at C. I don't think Rortvedt or Jeffers will be ready either, so you're signing a 4A type at C to sit in AAA.

 

Cron: Ikeep unless there's another 1B on the market that they want. Really, you have to replace his production and there's no one in the high minors that could feasibly do that at 1st or 3rd if you wanted to move Sano there. 

 

Schoop: Good bye... Arraez can handle the job for now, though I'd make it a competition between him and Gordon. 

 

Romo: Stays. 

 

Gibson/Pineda: I think one of these guys stays. It really depends on Gibson's medicals, though I'd lean Pineda who was pretty good and will come cheap. With Pineda, you can start Graterol in late April/May with the plan of keeping him the majors to build up his innings count as a long reliever/spot starter.

 

Perez: Good bye... It was a nice run, but once he was figured out, he regressed to his mean. 

    • Sconnie likes this

I don't understand why people want Pineda, Odorizzi, Perez, and Gibson back. At some point one has to realize that if they do things the same way, the results will be the same (0 for the postseason.)

This pitching staff needs major overhaul, and the biggest elephant in the room is that Berrios has not improved in 3 major league seasons... I hope that the new regime realizes that and makes drastic changes. They need 2 pitchers better than Berrios to compete in the postseason.

Cron was third in the majors in xwOBA-wOBA and not sure that there are any cheaper better performing free agents or that any of the farm solutions are ready for a postseason contender.

I think some of the "stay the same" is based on our 2019 success and the resignation to how our front office works, or doesn't work.

A key tenet to modern baseball management is to pay for future production vs past. ie who is likely to hold their form or improve. Perez flashed dominance. I think he could improve and fill a back end. I would not necessarily bet on Pineda improving. He was caught taking a making agent. Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it is.

Odo and Gibson have strong track records. Both showed good velocity. Twins have never been good about signing FA. The FO prides themselves in not overpaying which is what FA is.

So here's the catch 22. The guys the forum wants back or hopes to add are guys everyone wants. The chances we get even 1 of those guys, Odo, Pineda, Wheeler, Bummy, Ryu... remote or impossible.

That's why we're looking closely as to whether Gibby can bounce back, whether Perez can take another step forward, whether Smeltzer/thorpe/dobnak are legit.

I could see the Twins trading for Darvish for some reason. Finished strong, 1.10 whip. Hasn't worked out great in Chicago to date. FO loves him. We balked at years, fewer years left on the k now.

For reference, per mlbtraderumors. Their arbitration estimates:

Twins (10)
Sam Dyson – $6.4MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
C.J. Cron – $7.7MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM


I'm in favor of bringing Cton back, but that number seems a little high. I think he was only at $4.8M in 2019. That would be quite a jump.

Obviously Dyson will be a no-go at that number. 50/50 he is just allowed to walk vs a 2yr split deal.

The rest seems to make sense.

 

I'm in favor of bringing Cton back, but that number seems a little high. I think he was only at $4.8M in 2019. That would be quite a jump.

Obviously Dyson will be a no-go at that number. 50/50 he is just allowed to walk vs a 2yr split deal.

The rest seems to make sense.

 

WIth Rogers number to jump that high.......I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an extension before arbitration hits.

    • DocBauer likes this

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