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2015 Projections and Rankings: Oswaldo Arcia

In the last few days, we reviewed and made predictions about the 2015 seasons of the Twins infielders. Today, we will be posting our projections and rankings of the Twins outfielders.

Oswaldo Arcia is moving over to left field and his ability to take a step forward in his career is one of the keys to the Twins 2015 season.
Image courtesy of Tommy GIlligan, USA Today
MINNESOTA TWINS – OSWALDO ARCIA

Oswaldo Arcia sped through the Twins minor league system and made his major league debut at age 21 in early 2013. He hit 17 doubles and 14 home runs in that rookie season in just 97 games. In 2014, he played in just 103 games. He hit .231/.300/.452 (.752) with 16 doubles, 20 home runs and 57 RBI.

So, what are those things that will determine whether or not Oswaldo Arcia can take a step forward in his career in 2015? He will need to make more contact. He struck out 127 times in 410 plate appearances. He’ll need to be able to control the strike zone better as he walked just 31 times. He hit right-handed pitching to the tune of an .848 OPS. However, against southpaws, he hit just .198/.261/.313 (.574). Of course, defense will also be a struggle for Arcia. He won’t have a ton of range, but more important, will he be able to take better routes than he did in right field last year?

If he can show better plate discipline and make more contact, Arcia has all the potential in the world. He has 30-homer potential and will be able to drive in a lot of runs. If he doesn’t make a couple of adjustments, we could see Eddie Rosario getting his first opportunity with the Twins.

Our Twins Daily writers made their predictions:


Seth – .255/.312/.485 (.797) with 23 doubles and 27 HR.
Nick – .265/.325/.515 (.840) with 25 doubles and 35 HR
Parker – .250/.310/.470 (.780) with 20 doubles and 25 HR
John – ..220/.290/.400 (.690) with 15 doubles and 12 HR


AL CENTRAL LEFT FIELDERS

Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics
Chicago – Melky Cabrera – 30 - .301/.351/.458 (.808) with 35 doubles, 16-HR
Cleveland – Michael Brantley – 28 - .327/.385/.506 (.890) with 45 doubles, 20-HR
Detroit – Yoenis Cespedes – 29 - .260/.301/.450 (.751) with 36 doubles, 22-HR
Kansas City – Alex Gordon – 31 - .266/.351/.432 (.783) with 34 doubles, 19-HR


AL CENTRAL LEFT FIELD RANKINGS

#1 – Alex Gordon – Kansas City
#2 – Michael Brantley – Cleveland
#3 – Melky Cabrera – Chicago
#4 – Yoenis Cespedes – Detroit
#5 – Oswaldo Arcia – Minnesota


NOW IT’S YOUR TURN

Give it a little thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Oswaldo Arcia in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central left fielders? Then discuss your thoughts with the rest of the Twins Daily community. Check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions.

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS, PROJECTIONS AND RANKINGS

Kurt Suzuki
Joe Mauer
Brian Dozier
Trevor Plouffe
Danny Santana


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24 Comments

The average ISO for these projections is .233.  That would put Arcia in a category with Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, and Ryan Braun in terms of power over the past few years. That seems a little optimistic to me. Maybe Arcia will be putting up those numbers at the peak of his career, but I don't see him doing that at age 23/24.  I think my projection would be something like:

.245/.310/.455

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Willihammer
Apr 02 2015 09:06 AM
Arcia did have the 3rd highest ISO in the 2nd half last year (.278), trailing only Stanton and Kemp.
    • Mike Frasier Law likes this

.275/.340/.500 (.840) with 30 doubles and 32 homers.

Did you guys factor in defense into the rankings?After the Santana one I didn't think so, but maybe you did here?

 

I am guessing Arcia has a better OPS this year than Melky or Cespedes.Cespedes for sure.  Cespedes has basically been a .250/.300 guy with 22 HR the last two years (after tape existed on him)..740 OPS.That is in line with Arcia's age 22 and 23 seasons, where he was literally clueless against lefties and has had contact issues. I would expect a step forward to some extent this year.

 

.275/.340/.500 (.840) with 30 doubles and 32 homers.

 

That seems really rosy to me.I don't doubt that Arcia could eventually put up these type of numbers. But I don't see it this year.

 

His career OPS splits are .809/.613.So you are expecting his average to rise more than his career OPS against righties with about a 30 basis point improvement in his BA.

Prediction: Arcia plays this season for Rochester and Eduardo Escobar plays most of games in LF for the Twins.
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Willihammer
Apr 02 2015 10:12 AM
His lousy spring training aside, I am hopeful for a breakout year for Arcia. .240/.290/.510 and 30+ bombs.

240 (let's not get too optimistic - he would be very improved to get to this level)  30 home run if they do not get too upset with his strikeouts and fielding.  I am a little worried that he is looking a little pudgy in his photo with this article and based on what I have read I wonder if he can maintain plate discipline over the whole year.  I really want him to succeed!

 

 

Did you guys factor in defense into the rankings?After the Santana one I didn't think so, but maybe you did here?

 

It wasn't scientific, but it played a factor in the rankings, I guess.

 

That seems really rosy to me.I don't doubt that Arcia could eventually put up these type of numbers. But I don't see it this year.

 

His career OPS splits are .809/.613.So you are expecting his average to rise more than his career OPS against righties with about a 30 basis point improvement in his BA.

 

Yep!

His August and September last year mark a change. And he will grow from that. Look at those minors numbers again.

    • HitInAPinch and Vance_Christianson like this

I am hoping that the light bulb goes on that what he was doing in the minors worked better than what he has done in the majors and that he falls out of love with the tape measure shots and settles for 10 feet over the fence. .280 with OPS of .860. This is the guy I expect to have the greatest improvement over last year with possible exception of Mauer. If he can just tone down the swing a little bit I think he is a difference maker.

He's got some holes in his swing (most of them outside of the strike zone) that MLB pitching has exploited but soon enough he will be punishing them for their mistakes. 250/310/490 around 30 bombs give or take says the optimist in me.

 

His August and September last year mark a change. And he will grow from that. Look at those minors numbers again.

 

His OPS was .825 and .842 in August and September. 15 of his 20 HR cleared the wall in the second half.But his K rate was over 30% those last two months.I can't see the righty lefty split by month, but for the year he was at an OPS of .574 against lefties.He will need a meaningful improvement upon those numbers.

 

His minor league OPS was .917.Only 68 HR in 434 games. Not earth shattering or anything.Lots of doubles.

I would say Brantley is the best Left Fielder in our division. Doesn't have quite the glove that Gordon does but is better at the plate.

 

His OPS was .825 and .842 in August and September. 15 of his 20 HR cleared the wall in the second half.But his K rate was over 30% those last two months.I can't see the righty lefty split by month, but for the year he was at an OPS of .574 against lefties.He will need a meaningful improvement upon those numbers.

 

His minor league OPS was .917.Only 68 HR in 434 games. Not earth shattering or anything.

I think his OPS against lefties is a symptom of his efforts to pull everything and pull it a long way.    The 68 homers is not earth shattering but the .917 OPS kind of is.  I didn't see a lot of him in the early years but the not so distant past I would have thought steroids likely.  I would think if he made the same contact as he did in the minors the homer total would be a lot higher than 68 just because of his build and strength right now. Step toward the pitcher and go with the pitch.Does anyone think he can't hit it out of any part of the park with his swing and build?

Arcia is either going to improve, in which case he will be amongst the better LF. or Arcia won't hit enough to cover his defensive weakness, in which case Arcia will find himself playing fewer than 300 AB and we will bring up one or more of our OF prodigy's, or maybe they will bring up Sano and Plouffe will find himself playing LF.

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HitInAPinch
Apr 02 2015 03:30 PM

I'm hopeful that he's leaning more from Brunansky. 

Huge jump in BA to .255 [leaning to hit lefties some of the time]28 HR's, equal number of 2B's . 

Walk and chew gum in LF

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BrianTrottier
Apr 02 2015 04:27 PM

"John – ..220/.290/.400 (.690) with 15 doubles and 12 HR"

 

Just curious how Arcia could slug .400 with only 15 doubles and 12 home runs. Are we assuming his season is done by June?

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diehardtwinsfan
Apr 02 2015 04:55 PM
yeah John, gotta wonder a bit about your prediction there. He had a lousy spring, but his career to date says he won't be that bad. I think he cracks an .800 OPS personally, and Nick's numbers are probably closer. With a minor league OPS over .900, I really do think he could be a star in a couple years. I think the BA goes up and his plate discipline improves a bit.

.280/.340/.500 25 HR.

.320/.388/.539 (.928) with 36 doubles and 17 home runs plus 98 RBI.

 

There was someone from the Cardinals org. that said if he gave up some of his power he has a good enough swing to be the next Joe Mauer.

 

"John – ..220/.290/.400 (.690) with 15 doubles and 12 HR"

 

Just curious how Arcia could slug .400 with only 15 doubles and 12 home runs. Are we assuming his season is done by June?

He forgot to mention the 20 triples (in 500 AB). :)

    • BrianTrottier likes this

.264/.310/.489 27 HR, 32 Doubles

 

 

 

 

"John – ..220/.290/.400 (.690) with 15 doubles and 12 HR"

 

Just curious how Arcia could slug .400 with only 15 doubles and 12 home runs. Are we assuming his season is done by June?

Must be thinking the plate discipline is really coming around and will walk 125 times.


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