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Article: MIN 11, CWS 4: Twins Make Home Run History

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:04 PM
José Berríos scared us a little bit early in the game, but an Eddie Rosario-led offense scored in all of the first five innings to promot...
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Souhan: Mauer is Twins 2019 Most Valuable Pensioner

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:01 PM
http://www.startribu...team/510360372/     Surprised to see this wasn't posted here yet.   I have to agree. Letting Mauer...
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Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/24): 2018 Top Draft...

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 11:04 PM
We’re a little over a week away from the 2019 MLB Draft. On a night with very little offense across the system, 2018 top picks Trevor Lar...
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Game Thread: Twins vs White Sox 5:10 PM PST (7:10 PM CST)...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 10:49 PM
"Red-headed step-children are mollycoddled compared to this thrashing."   ----Halos Heaven game thread, last game of the series agai...
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Article: When the Twins Go Buying... Who Are They Selling?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 10:25 PM
As we approach the trade deadline - What? It’s only a little over two months away - there are a number of moves the Twins could and possi...
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Twins Minor League Report (5/13): Baller-Zovic

While only three of the Minnesota Twins four full season affiliates were in action on Monday, two of them had doubleheaders on the schedule thanks to the weather that’s been wreaking havoc seemingly every day so far this season. A pair of starting pitchers had solid outings, including one who set a personal strikeout record, and a top prospect hitter finished his day with four hits. An under-the-radar reliever also continued an impressive scoreless streak to start 2019.

To find out who those players were, and how the rest of your favorite Twins prospects performed on Monday night, read on!
Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Jordan Balazovic)
TRANSACTIONS
  • Hopefully Tyler Duffey hadn’t already boarded a plane back to Rochester, NY after being the 26th man on Saturday and officially being returned yesterday, as he was recalled Monday.
  • To make room on the 25-man roster, Jake Cave was optioned to Rochester.

RED WINGS REPORT
Scheduled Day Off

The Red Wings got the day off on Monday to travel as they end six-day homestand where they went 2-3 and had another game rained out that will be made up on June 21st against the Toledo MudHens. They begin a three-game series on Tuesday against the Charlotte Knights with righthander Zack Littell on the mound, coming off a six-inning scoreless outing his last time out.

BLUE WAHOOS BITES
Game 1: Pensacola 1, Chattanooga 0
Box Score

Starter Jorge Alcala was brilliant for 5 2/3 innings to pick up his fifth win of the year and needed to be as his offense was able to scratch across just one run on the game.

Alcala retired nine men in a row from the third through the sixth inning, but a two-out single after consecutive strikeouts to open the sixth inning brought an end to his outing. He allowed just two hits and two walks, struck out four, and threw 49 of his 82 pitches for strikes, including seven swinging.

The Blue Wahoos scored the only run of the game in the fourth inning after Taylor Grzelakowski drew a leadoff walk, moved to third on an Ernie De La Trinidad double, and scored on a sacrifice fly from Tanner English. Luis Arraez had three of their eight total hits on the game, a trio of singles but never got farther than second base as Pensacola was 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.

Ryan Mason finished the final 1 1/3 innings, allowing a two-out double in the seventh to make it somewhat interesting, but bookending that with a pair of strikeouts to pick up his seventh save of the year. For those keeping track, Mason has now appeared in 11 games, totaling 16 1/3 innings pitched, allowing zero runs on eleven hits and two walks, while striking out 23. That means his ERA is a perfect 0.00, and his WHIP a stellar 0.80 so far on the year. He’s also struck out multiple hitters in his last nine appearances.

Game 2: Pensacola 4, Chattanooga 5 (9 innings)
Box Score

The Blue Wahoos got on the scoreboard first in the fifth inning, taking a 2-0 lead after a couple of walks were followed by consecutive two-out RBI singles from Joe Cronin and Jaylin Davis. They extended that lead to 4-0 in the seventh when Luis Arraez drove in two with a two-out bases-loaded single.

Those insurance runs wouldn’t be enough however, as in their final chance the Lookouts got one big swing of the bat to extend the game. After Alex Phillips loaded the bases, lefty Tyler Jay was brought in from the bullpen to face Chattanooga’s cleanup hitter, and he sent an 0-1 pitch into the seats for a game-tying grand slam. Jay was later saved from losing the game by a ground-rule double for escaping to send it to extra innings. He would remain in the game and delivered a scoreless eighth, but the first hitter of the ninth snuck a base hit into center field and the winning run came home.

Pensacola took a bullpen approach to game two, with Adam Bray making the start and getting through 3 1/3 scoreless innings. He allowed four hits and struck out three. Sam Clay pitched the next 1 2/3 giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one. Phillips was responsible for most of the comeback, as he was charged with three runs on two hits and three walks in 1 1/3. He struck out one. Jay allowed two runs on four hits and two walks in his 1 2/3 innings, striking out two.

The lineup for the Blue Wahoos tallied just six singles and three walks on the day and were 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position.

MIRACLE MATTERS
Bradenton 2, Fort Myers 8
Box Score

Fort Myers poured it on late to put away the Marauders, but before that newly minted pitching phenom Jordan Balazovic chewed through his opposition. For his second start in a row, Balazovic struck out double-digit hitters, but in this one also set a new career high for K’s in a game with 12. He did run up a bit of pitch count to get there, as he only finished five innings with his 94 pitches and also walked four, but is hard to complain about two runs allowed when it’s all said and done with that amount of punchouts. He struck out three hitters in a row on two separate occasions and all three outs via K’s in two other frames. Of his 59 strikes, an astounding 22 were of the swing and miss variety.

Calvin Faucher and Anthony Vizcaya combined to toss four innings of scoreless relief (two innings apiece), allowing four hits and a walk while striking out five between them. Faucher notched his fourth hold, while Vizcaya picked up his fourth save.

The Miracle took the lead 3-2 in the fourth after a solo home run from Michael Helman, extended it to 4-2 after a Trevor Larnach RBI-double in the seventh, then blew it open with a four run eighth. Helman (single), Royce Lewis (double), Larnach (single), and Ryan Jeffers (double) all drove in a run in the inning.

On the game Larnach led the charge by going 4-for-5 with two RBI, while Helman and Ryan Costello each also added two hits to the effort. Lewis scored three runs by chipping in a walk and two stolen bases to go along with his double in a 1-for-4 night at the dish. After hitting just .209 in the month of April, Lewis is at .292 so far in May with five multiple hit games in his last eleven.

KERNELS NUGGETS
Game 1: Quad Cities 4, Cedar Rapids 9
Box Score

Righthander Josh Winder took the mound for the Kernels in game one and followed his eight-inning gem on May 6th with a complete game in this one. Because of the doubleheader it was *only* seven innings, but he kept the River Bandits in check when it mattered, finishing by allowing four earned runs on five hits and four walks, while striking out three. Of his 102 pitches on the game, 65 went for strikes (64%).

The Cedar Rapids lineup put things at ease for Winder with two big innings, including the bottom of the first. Three of the first four batters of the game for the Kernels reached by via walk or a hit-by-pitch, then an RBI groundout from Gabe Snyder, an RBI single Gilberto Celestino, and two-RBI single by Gabriel Maciel made it 4-0. In the fourth, a three-run bomb from Snyder and two-RBI double from Andrew Bechtold added five more runs for the home team’s final tally.

Game 2: Quad Cities 7, Cedar Rapids 0
Box Score

Cedar Rapids wasn’t able to continue their offensive barrage from the first game of the day, as they were being no-hit through 4 2/3 innings. Gabriel Maciel broke that bid up in the fifth with a two-out single, but that would basically be it for the home team on the game. They had just four chances with runners in scoring position and were unable to capitalize. Gabe Snyder added his fifth double of the year and Yeltsin Encarnacion added a single to account for their three hits in the nightcap.

Austin Schulfer got the start for the Kernels and finished three innings. He was hit for three runs in the third after a two-run triple and an RBI single to end his day. He allowed those three runs on four hits and three walks while striking out one. Carlos Suniago chipped in two scoreless innings, striking out three to keep his team within striking distance, but Jose Martinez followed by allowing three more runs in the sixth on two hits and three walks to make it 6-0 Quad Cities. Moises Gomez came on for the final frame, and a leadoff triple led to a sac fly before finishing the game. He struck out one.

TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY

Pitcher of the Day – Jordan Balazovic, Fort Myers Miracle (W, 5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 12 K)
Hitter of the Day – Trevor Larnach, Fort Myers Miracle (4-for-5, R, 2B, 2 RBI)

PROSPECT SUMMARY

Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed:

#1 - Royce Lewis (Ft. Myers) - 1-for-4, 3 R, 2B (6), BB, K, 2 SB (8)
#2 - Alex Kirilloff (Pensacola) - 2-for-8, K (2 games)
#3 - Brusdar Graterol (Pensacola) - Did not pitch
#4 - Trevor Larnach (Ft. Myers) - 4-for-5, R, 2B (12), 2 RBI
#5 - Wander Javier (EST) - No game
#6 - Brent Rooker (Rochester) - No game
#7 - Jhoan Duran (Ft. Myers) - Did not pitch
#8 - Lewis Thorpe (Rochester) - No game
#9 - Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) - Did not pitch
#10 - Akil Baddoo (Ft. Myers) - Did not play
#11 - Nick Gordon (Rochester) - No game
#12 - Stephen Gonsalves (Rochester) - Injured list
#13 - Ryan Jeffers (Ft. Myers) - 1-for-4, 2B (5), RBI BB, K
#14 - Ben Rortvedt (Ft. Myers) - Did not play
#15 - Yunior Severino (Cedar Rapids) - Injured List
#16 - Gilberto Celestino (Cedar Rapids) - 1-for-6, 2 R, BB, K
#17 - Zack Littell (Rochester) - No game
#18 - LaMonte Wade (Rochester) - No game
#19 - Jorge Alcala (Pensacola) - W, 5.2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K
#20 - Jose Miranda (Ft. Myers) - 1-for-5, RBI

WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS

Rochester @ Charlotte (6:04PM CST) – RHP Zack Littell (2-2, 3.82 ERA)
Pensacola @ Chattanooga (6:15PM CST) - RHP Brusdar Graterol (4-0, 1.91 ERA)
Fort Myers @ Bradenton (5:30PM CST) – RHP Edwar Colina (0-1, 11.57 ERA)
Quad Cities @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) – RHP Luis Rijo (0-3, 4.05 ERA)

Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Monday’s games!

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40 Comments

Releasing him, letting him sign as a minor-league free-agent with whomever he pleased, would also have accomplished this. Do the Dodgers still need cash? :)


Money is still money, no matter how much you already have.

When I work on a mansion on the lake for a millionaire, they ask if they can pull scraps from the dumpster at the same rate as the working class guy with the 1300 square foot rambler.
Why would they give away something that someone will give them cash for?
    • Mike Sixel and Major League Ready like this
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birdwatcher
May 14 2019 12:07 PM

 

I wish it was only "occasionally"...Twins' track record with first-rounders is dismal.

 

 

If you were to steadfastly and objectively COMPARE first round draft results for a ten year period going backwards from 2018, as I have many times, and I mean COMPARE results against the other 29 teams, you could not possibly declare the results to be dismal on a relative basis. In every draft, with almost no exceptions, teams will have "passed" on a player or two within the next ten picks or so of their own who surprised the pundits and has outproduced most every earlier pick. So either ALL teams are dismal in absolute terms if that fact represents failure, or you have to cut them all some slack.

 

In that time frame, Tyler Jay may be the one pick that truly stands out as a clear bust. Stewart probably qualifies too. There were a couple of horribly unproductive draft classes where no one panned out. For example, only one player within ten picks of Levi Michael made it in 2011.

 

If you did a random check of any five teams you assume have a better track record with those top 30 first round selections, as I have a number of times, you'll discover that every one of them has at least one bust, and more commonly two or three. In other words, equally or more dismal.

 

So yeah, back to Jay, he's a bust, but I think it's only fair to mention Taylor Rogers in the same breath then. Because only 18 of the 339 players selected ahead of Rogers are likely to accumulate more WAR, and 12 of those players were first rounders, including Berrios and Buxton.

 

I mean, think about that. Six players total, rounds 2 through 11, about 300 prospects, selected by 30 organizations. About 295 busts.

    • Seth Stohs, James, Dman and 2 others like this

 

If you were to steadfastly and objectively COMPARE first round draft results for a ten year period going backwards from 2018, as I have many times, and I mean COMPARE results against the other 29 teams, you could not possibly declare the results to be dismal on a relative basis. In every draft, with almost no exceptions, teams will have "passed" on a player or two within the next ten picks or so of their own who surprised the pundits and has outproduced most every earlier pick. So either ALL teams are dismal in absolute terms if that fact represents failure, or you have to cut them all some slack.

 

In that time frame, Tyler Jay may be the one pick that truly stands out as a clear bust. Stewart probably qualifies too. There were a couple of horribly unproductive draft classes where no one panned out. For example, only one player within ten picks of Levi Michael made it in 2011.

 

If you did a random check of any five teams you assume have a better track record with those top 30 first round selections, as I have a number of times, you'll discover that every one of them has at least one bust, and more commonly two or three. In other words, equally or more dismal.

 

So yeah, back to Jay, he's a bust, but I think it's only fair to mention Taylor Rogers in the same breath then. Because only 18 of the 339 players selected ahead of Rogers are likely to accumulate more WAR, and 12 of those players were first rounders, including Berrios and Buxton.

 

If the Twins knew Rogers was going to be this good, they would have taken him earlier. His success has nothing to do with Jay's failure.

 

Jay, Gordon, Stewart, were Ryan's last three number 1 picks, before that?

 

Buxton, Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers, Gibson, Hunt, Guteriezz, Hicks.....

 

So, three legit ML players out of ten. Jay, Gordon and Stewart were all top 10 picks (meaning the ML team was bad.....).(One of the three good ones he traded for Murphy.....) and maybe Gordon turns out. Miss on one? Sure. Miss on two? Maybe ok. Miss on all three in a row?

 

That's not good enough, if your strategy is to NOT sign big time FAs, not trade top prospects for players, and to build in the draft and IFA......

    • Danchat and Taildragger8791 like this
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Taildragger8791
May 14 2019 02:00 PM

 

If you were to steadfastly and objectively COMPARE first round draft results for a ten year period going backwards from 2018, as I have many times, and I mean COMPARE results against the other 29 teams, you could not possibly declare the results to be dismal on a relative basis. In every draft, with almost no exceptions, teams will have "passed" on a player or two within the next ten picks or so of their own who surprised the pundits and has outproduced most every earlier pick. So either ALL teams are dismal in absolute terms if that fact represents failure, or you have to cut them all some slack.

 

In that time frame, Tyler Jay may be the one pick that truly stands out as a clear bust. Stewart probably qualifies too. There were a couple of horribly unproductive draft classes where no one panned out. For example, only one player within ten picks of Levi Michael made it in 2011.

 

If you did a random check of any five teams you assume have a better track record with those top 30 first round selections, as I have a number of times, you'll discover that every one of them has at least one bust, and more commonly two or three. In other words, equally or more dismal.

 

So yeah, back to Jay, he's a bust, but I think it's only fair to mention Taylor Rogers in the same breath then. Because only 18 of the 339 players selected ahead of Rogers are likely to accumulate more WAR, and 12 of those players were first rounders, including Berrios and Buxton.

 

I mean, think about that. Six players total, rounds 2 through 11, about 300 prospects, selected by 30 organizations. About 295 busts.

 

This miss on Tyler Jay looks worse than your run-of-the-mill bust because the whole thought process that went into it was flawed. They went after college relievers trying to exploit some non-existent market inefficiency. It was such a bad idea it only took a year to see that it wasn't going to pay off. They'd have been better off throwing darts than executing that terrible plan.

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birdwatcher
May 14 2019 02:55 PM

 

This miss on Tyler Jay looks worse than your run-of-the-mill bust because the whole thought process that went into it was flawed. They went after college relievers trying to exploit some non-existent market inefficiency. It was such a bad idea it only took a year to see that it wasn't going to pay off. They'd have been better off throwing darts than executing that terrible plan.

 

 

Yeah, I think it's harsh and simplistic, but there's some validity to that argument. 

 

Even back in 2015, if you weren't drafting in the top third of the first round, pretty much all the high velo starters were off the board, usually in the first handful of picks. They may have mistakenly convinced themselves that Jay profile more as a starter, as scouts were suggesting.

 

Flawed as it was as a strategy, if the goal was to populate the ranks with some fireballers, the relievers were what was out there. In this day and age, when every prospect is seemingly throwing gas, it would be a terrible plan for sure. Rogers and Duffy were not throwing 95 when they were drafted as 5th and 11th rounders.

 

Frankly, I think the much larger problem was gambling that most of these max effort guys would avoid injury for one (Melotakis, Bullock, Hunt, Gutierrez, Burdi, and Jones ALL suffered injuries), and then failing to either retain or convert guys like Chargois, Bard, Burdi, and a number of others into some semblance of a return.

 

One could argue that taking ANY high velo pitcher, starter or not, is a bad strategy. Look at the data. It's littered with casualties and TJ guys like Hunter Greene.

    • Dman likes this

Roger, this has nothing to do with this comment... but I figured you should know that Ben Rortvedt was just promoted to AA Pensacola... 

Is there a corresponding move, or will they keep three catchers at AA?

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birdwatcher
May 14 2019 03:07 PM

 

If the Twins knew Rogers was going to be this good, they would have taken him earlier. His success has nothing to do with Jay's failure.

 

Jay, Gordon, Stewart, were Ryan's last three number 1 picks, before that?

 

Buxton, Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers, Gibson, Hunt, Guteriezz, Hicks.....

 

So, three legit ML players out of ten. Jay, Gordon and Stewart were all top 10 picks (meaning the ML team was bad.....).(One of the three good ones he traded for Murphy.....) and maybe Gordon turns out. Miss on one? Sure. Miss on two? Maybe ok. Miss on all three in a row?

 

That's not good enough, if your strategy is to NOT sign big time FAs, not trade top prospects for players, and to build in the draft and IFA......

 

 

This isn't a comparative analysis, so I won't touch on points you're making that aren't relevent.

 

But the relevence of Rogers, Hildenberger, Bard, and any number of OTHER successful later round picks is to refute the implication that's always there when the draft record gets called into question. Which is the question of competence at talent evaluation. They didn't reverse a frontal lobotomy in time for the 11th round.

 

In a reasoned comparative analysis, Buxton, Gordon, Gibson (for sure!) and Michael would all be judged to be good decisions. Hicks too, but he was over ten years ago. Stewart, probably not, but that case is open.

 

As I've argued for awhile, having much of an edge in the draft is pretty much fiction these days because of observation technology, spending limits, and widespread emphasis on reliance on homegrown talent by almost every team now, including the Yankees.

 

The next two picks after Jay were Benintendi and Carson Fulmer.

 

Walker Buehler was picked at #24 in the first round by the Dodgers!

 

Yes, we know.;)

 

Fulmer is back in AAA after posting about a 7 ERA, a 2 WHIP, and -1.1 WAR over about 100 IP. No one is much more excited about Carson in Chicago than we are about Tyler here, or than the Orioles are about the #4 pick, Dillon Tate, who is also floundering in AA.

 

The lesson: we're gonna win more than we lose, but we're gonna lose occasionally. Like everyone else.

 

So why not trade them ALL right away, while everyone thinks they have hope? Trade for MLB talent all the time, right away, as soon as they show promise. Using the analytical approach, aren't the all important probability odds indicating that would be the best way to build a team, then, since the odds are overwhelmingly indicating that most all picks will fail? Like the all decision to constantly employ the shift. It's all about the odds. Activate the moves by percentage probabilites. And then, with the same reasoning, why ever be concerned with draft picks when it comes to free agency? Even if it is a number one pick, odds are the pick will be a waste of time, anyway.

 

    • Danchat likes this

 

Late next year for Gaterol? I hope not. Because with their lack of depth, that means a lot of starts by lesser pitchers.

If Balazovic is dominant for two months, promote him again. He could be up next year.

 

I hope not either. It is clear, with pitching decisions that need to be made for next year, that these guys need to get an audition and see how close they really are. They could be. Regardless of all those who think they know, and even get paid to make the decisions - nobody knows until they have the opportunity and get a look. Nobody. 

 

Oh..... and Graterol still wants his consonant back.......... good job on Balazovic, though.;)

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Taildragger8791
May 14 2019 03:59 PM

 

So why not trade them ALL right away, while everyone thinks they have hope? Trade for MLB talent all the time, right away, as soon as they show promise. Using the analytical approach, aren't the all important probability odds indicating that would be the best way to build a team, then, since the odds are overwhelmingly indicating that most all picks will fail? Like the all decision to constantly employ the shift. It's all about the odds. Activate the moves by percentage probabilites. And then, with the same reasoning, why ever be concerned with draft picks when it comes to free agency? Even if it is a number one pick, odds are the pick will be a waste of time, anyway.

 

I think that would be a legitimate way to reinforce or anchor a rotation, seeing as how developing starting pitching is such a crapshoot and it's rarely available in free agency. You just need to be able to afford to keep/extend the more expensive older players you'd be getting in return. Almost nobody is trading 22 year old front-end starters under cost control for less than a mint.

 

Hitting is more reliably developed and easier to acquire in free agency, so I'd be more hesitant to blow the prospect equity on a bat. You'll run out of prospects in a hurry going 3-for-1 in trades just to fill out your lineup.

    • birdwatcher and WLFINN like this
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birdwatcher
May 14 2019 04:42 PM

 

I think that would be a legitimate way to reinforce or anchor a rotation, seeing as how developing starting pitching is such a crapshoot and it's rarely available in free agency. You just need to be able to afford to keep/extend the more expensive older players you'd be getting in return. Almost nobody is trading 22 year old front-end starters under cost control for less than a mint.

 

Hitting is more reliably developed and easier to acquire in free agency, so I'd be more hesitant to blow the prospect equity on a bat. You'll run out of prospects in a hurry going 3-for-1 in trades just to fill out your lineup.

 

 

Really solid answer.

 

I wonder if our baseball people (not just Falvine, as others have brains and a voice in the matter) have developed a more conscious preference for position players due to the greater predictability and lower risks. It may not be an accident that Larnach, Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Javier, Urbina, and now Enmanuel Rodriguez are our largest investments. Oh, and Wes Johnson, Rapsodo, Trackman, and a bunch of additional coaches.

 

 

 

If you were to steadfastly and objectively COMPARE first round draft results for a ten year period going backwards from 2018, as I have many times, and I mean COMPARE results against the other 29 teams, you could not possibly declare the results to be dismal on a relative basis. In every draft, with almost no exceptions, teams will have "passed" on a player or two within the next ten picks or so of their own who surprised the pundits and has outproduced most every earlier pick. So either ALL teams are dismal in absolute terms if that fact represents failure, or you have to cut them all some slack.

 

In that time frame, Tyler Jay may be the one pick that truly stands out as a clear bust. Stewart probably qualifies too. There were a couple of horribly unproductive draft classes where no one panned out. For example, only one player within ten picks of Levi Michael made it in 2011.

 

If you did a random check of any five teams you assume have a better track record with those top 30 first round selections, as I have a number of times, you'll discover that every one of them has at least one bust, and more commonly two or three. In other words, equally or more dismal.

 

 

Well since you've looked at this more closely than I have, of last 25 Twins' 1st round picks, how many had a meaningful MLB career? Is this a good rate relative to other teams?

    • birdwatcher likes this

 

Roger, this has nothing to do with this comment... but I figured you should know that Ben Rortvedt was just promoted to AA Pensacola... 

Thanks, Seth.And that is great news as he edges closer towards being with the Twins.Also saw that Arraez moved up to Rochester.Curious if he will stay or is short-term while Gordon is on the IL....again.

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birdwatcher
May 15 2019 09:36 AM

 

Well since you've looked at this more closely than I have, of last 25 Twins' 1st round picks, how many had a meaningful MLB career? Is this a good rate relative to other teams?

 

 

No, I haven't gone back 25 years, because most of the scouts and other talent procurers from the distant past have been replaced. Going back even ten years is a bit of a stretch, although MANY of the same people from 2009 are still scouting and weighing in on draft prospects in 2019. But it's important to consider how much has changed in talent evaluation and draft strategy, especially within the last few years.

 

I can't substantiate this, but I've come to believe that the percentage of "hits" with first round picks over the last 4-5 drafts will be much higher than even back in 2012 and 2013. If you look at those drafts, you'll see only three or four bona fide superstars emerging from each of those drafts. I doubt Mike Trout or Aaron Judge would make it to the tail end of the first round today. But that's sheer speculation on my part.


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