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Interesting interview with Terry Ryan

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:00 AM
This article contains some interesting statements by Terry Ryan, including the following:   Pohlad said last fall that Ryan’s job is...
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Trivia

More Baseball Yesterday, 11:59 PM
Dave may enjoy this:   What do Matt Garza and Mark DeRosa have in common?
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Article: Non-Roster Hopefuls

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 11:35 PM
As Labor Day approaches and fall soon sets in, it's hard to believe that the baseball season is already almost five months complete. Mond...
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Schafer!

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:16 PM
Schafer has done well, no question. Has he rendered his 80 ABs for the Braves moot? He's arb eligible and almost 28. Maybe coming to the...
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10,000th Homer

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:36 PM
With Hendriks going tonight, maybe, just maybe, a Twin will connect for Franchise Home Run #10,000.  Before it happens, let's get so...
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Three Overlooked Twins Prospects

Attached Image: Kepler_Max_Walking_US_720.jpg Here are three Minnesota Twins prospects (all are 1.7 years younger than the average player in their respective leagues, according to Baseball Reference) who, at first glance, appear to be struggling so far in 2014. A closer examination, however, tells a different story:

Taylor Rogers (AA SP)

  • 32.2 IP in 8 GS
  • The bad:
    • 5.36 ERA
    • 1.53 WHIP
  • Why he’s better than his numbers:

The obvious indicator is his 3.50 FIP, almost 2 full runs lower than his ERA; in fact, this difference is the highest in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. Let’s take a closer look:

Rogers is striking out 8.66 per 9 innings (21.3% of plate appearances) and walking just 2.27 per 9 (5.6% of PA), good for a stellar 3.82 K/BB, which ranks him 8th in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. This is a huge step forward from a season ago, when Rogers posted just 5.72 K/9 (15.7%) with a 2.59 K/BB. Furthermore, Rogers continues to keep the ball on the ground, posting an excellent 1.61 GO/AO ratio.

The cause of Rogers’ struggles is two-fold: an extremely high BABIP and a poor strand-rate. Rogers has a .377 BABIP, which is the worst in the EL amongst qualified pitchers, and his strand rate of 61.5% is the 8th worst amongst qualified pitchers.

How optimistic should we be?
Very. Although I wouldn’t expect Rogers to continue to strike out close to a batter per inning, if he continues to induce ground balls at a high rate and limit walks—which I expect him to do—he should have a solid year. And if his increased strikeout rate is here to stay—even if it settles around 7 K/9—then Rogers could become a very intriguing prospect. If his BABIP and strand rate settle down soon, Rogers should merit a mid-season call-up to AAA.

Adrian Salcedo (AA RP)

  • 22 IP in 15 relief appearances for New Britain
  • The bad:
    • 7.77 ERA
    • 1.86 WHIP
  • Why he’s better than his numbers:

Similar to Rogers, Salcedo’s FIP is an immediate indicator of bad luck; he has a FIP of 2.43 for the season, over 5 runs lower than his ERA (this is a staggering figure, as the next highest difference between ERA and FIP for an Eastern League pitcher with at least 20 IP is 3.42, compared to Salcedo’s 5.34). Let’s take a closer look at Salcedo’s numbers:

Salcedo is striking out a whopping 12.27 batters per 9 innings (27.5% of PAs) and is walking just 3.27 (7.3%), good for an excellent 3.75 K/BB ratio. Although he is walking more batters than a year ago, the large increase in strikeouts (up from 8.33 K/9) has led to a slight improvement in his K/BB ratio (up from 3.6 last season). Furthermore, Salcedo has posted an excellent 2.08 GO/AO ratio, even better than the 1.68 GO/AO from a year ago.

The cause of Salcedo’s struggles, similar to those of Rogers, is a high BABIP and a lower strand-rate. Salcedo’s BABIP of .464 is the highest in the EL amongst pitchers with at least 20 IP (the next closest is just .400) and his strand rate is just 51.7%, meaning roughly half of all batters that reach base score; this is the 4th worst rate in the Eastern League amongst pitchers with 20 IP.

How optimistic should we be?
Very. Salcedo is establishing himself as a high-K, low-BB, ground-ball inducing relief pitcher. What more can you ask for? Once his BABIP comes back to Earth, which it will, his strand-rate should increase and his ERA will drop. I expect Salcedo to be another candidate for a mid-season call-up to AAA. It is worth noting that Salcedo was a popular sleeper prospect heading into the 2012 season before injuries limited him to just 30 IP that year.

Max Kepler (A+ OF/1B)

  • 35 games (27 at CF) for Fort Myers
  • The bad: .215/.319/.347 for an OPS of .666
  • Why he’s better than his numbers:

Kepler has displayed excellent plate discipline, striking out in just 13.5% of his plate appearances (down from 16.3% last year) and walking in 10.6%, which is the highest rate of his career. The result is a BB/K ratio of .79, which is the 13th best in the league, and a significant improvement from a solid BB/K ratio of .56 from last season.
The main cause of Kepler’s struggles is his .236 BABIP, which is the 6th lowest amongst qualified starters.

How optimistic should we be?
I would be slightly less optimistic about Kepler than Rogers and Salcedo. Yes, his BABIP is incredibly low and should rise. Although this figure is certainly a result of bad luck and therefore should be expected to rise, it could also be a result of some underlying problems for Kepler. First and foremost, it is similar to the .254 BABIP of a year ago. Secondly, his ISO of .130 is much lower than his ISO of .189 from last year, which could indicate that he simply isn’t hitting the ball very hard.

On the other hand, the Florida State League is notoriously a pitcher-friendly league, and Kepler’s ISO is actually much better (24% better, to be exact) than the league average of .105. In fact, only one player in the league has a higher ISO and BB/K ratio than Kepler. I’m very high on Kepler—he presents a rare combination of plate discipline, power, and athleticism—but I think a full year in A+ would be good for him.


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