Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Souhan on Sano

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:21 PM
Okay, I'll bite.   Lotta twitter bile being flung at Souhan based on his column on Sano & his weight.    I'm curious t...
Full topic ›

Article: Game Thread: Twins @ White Sox, 8/21@4:10pm AND...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:21 PM
Greeting from Morehead, Kentucky. That was quite a weekend for our Twins. It wasn’t a sweep of the D-Backs, it was a high powered leaf bl...
Full topic ›

Article: Twins Minor League Report (8/18): Grand Slams, S...

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 02:17 PM
Twins affiliates were undefeated on Friday night, putting another exclamation point on an incredible display of power throughout the orga...
Full topic ›

Go get Verlander

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:14 PM
http://www.espn.com/...astros-audition   Best possible combination of help in 2017 and help in the next couple years, right where th...
Full topic ›

Rule 5 Addition Discussion

The July 31st trade deadline has now passed, but that doesn’t mean that the Twins are necessarily done trading. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are likely to continue racking up minutes on their phones throughout the month.

In November, the front office will have to make some difficult decisions as it relates to the 40-man roster. At the trade deadline, the team added Dietrich Enns, who is already on the 40-man roster. They added Zack Littell and Gabriel Moya who are currently not on the 40-man roster but are certainly candidates. They don’t have to decide yet on Tyler Watson.

In case you missed them, here are the Twins trades:

John Ryan Murphy for Gabriel Moya - Diamondbacks
Jaime Garcia for Ryan Littell and Dietrich Enns - Yankees
Brandon Kintzler for Justin Watson - Nationals
Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Stephen Gonsalves)
40-man roster consideration comes into play during the August trade period. So I think it’s a good time to take a first glance at which players in the Twins system would be Rule 5 draft eligible if they are not protected before the Winter Meetings.

I put together the list of players, and then sorted them into three categories.

The Givens: There is no question in my mind that these guys will be added… or lost.
2nd Tier: These guys have to be given strong consideration. For one reason or another, they are not quite givens, but have a decent chance depending on how many players get added.
3rd Tier: The next group probably won’t be added. It’s not that there aren’t some really good baseball players in this group. It’s that you’ll see the number of players who fall into the first two categories. However, the front office will need to have a conversation on several of these players.

So, I often get asked who is eligible for the Rule 5. The following are eligible this offseason for the first time:
  • Players who signed when they were 18 or younger in 2013 (during the minor league season).
  • Players who signed when they were 19 or older in 2014.
  • Players who were eligible in previous seasons are also eligible again.
Impending Minor League Free Agents

Before spring training, I wrote about five players who would become free agents after the 2017 World Series if they were not added to the Twins 40-man roster before then. Four of those players remain in the organization.
  • Levi Michael - 2011 first-round pick.
  • Travis Harrison - 2011 supplemental first-round pick.
  • Dereck Rodriguez - 2011 6th round pick.
  • David Hurlbut - 2011 28th-round pick.
Hurlbut is starting for the Red Wings. The other three players are playing for Chattanooga. While the Twins may try to bring back a couple of these players on minor league free agent deals, Rodriguez is the one player the team may consider adding to the 40-man roster before the completion of the World Series.

The Givens
  • Stephen Gonsalves - The lefty is a Top 100 prospect who has had a lot of success this year in AA Chattanooga. Easiest choice of the bunch.
  • Zack Littell - Like Gonsalves, Littell was drafted out of high school in 2013. He has split this season between High-A and AA, and will debut with the Lookouts this week.
  • Jake Reed - Drafted in 2014 out of Oregon, Reed moved up the system very quickly. The last couple of years he’s split between AA and AAA. Like Gonsalves, his season started late due to injury, but he’s back with the Red Wins and should debut this season.
  • John Curtiss - Twins sixth-round pick in 2014 out of Texas, Curtiss was given some time as a starter early in his career, but since moving to the bullpen for the 2016 season, he has taken off and become one of the most dominant relievers in the organization. He was recently promoted to AAA.
  • Lewin Diaz - Signed out of the Dominican in July of 2013, Diaz gradually worked his way up. Last year, he started showing his power at Elizabethton. He’s been a solid performer at Cedar Rapids this year. He’s a top ten prospect (#6, for me).
2nd Tier

The following list is really tough, but as I mentioned above, the Twins are going to have some really difficult decisions, and a couple of these guys will likely be left off the list. I’ll put them in the order I would likely add them, but you can feel free to discuss.

6.) Lewis Thorpe - The left-hander was eligible a year ago, but since he hadn’t pitched in two seasons, he went unselected. He’s been back for a couple of months now, and he’s been solid. He’s getting stronger, and he’s pitching well in Ft. Myers. He’s pretty close to a given.
7.) Aaron Slegers - Slegers was eligible for the Rule 5 draft last year and a lot of people thought there was a good chance he would be taken. He wasn’t, and the team invited him to big league camp. He moved up to Rochester, and he has been good, especially his last eight starts over which he has gone 8-0. Slegers should be promoted soon, even before September.
8.) Kohl Stewart - The strikeouts, I know. However, based on his draft position (1st round, 4th overall, in 2013), there’s a good chance he’s added. He hasn’t put up the numbers that Gonsalves has, particularly lacking in strikeouts, but until his rough start this season, he has always limited baserunners and runs with little hard contact.
9.) Gabriel Moya - He was acquired last week in the trade for John Ryan Murphy. He’s putting up incredible numbers in AA. While he doesn’t throw real hard, the lefty gets strikeouts, has deception and dominates.
10.) Luke Bard - The supplemental 2012 first-round pick has been healthy these last two years. With health, he’s improved his velocity and spin rates, and he has missed a lot of bats this year. Bard should be called up before the end of the season.
11.) Nick Burdi - A year ago, even having missed most of 2016 with the humerus injury, Burdi would have been an easy add. He was off to a great start this year and certainly would be up with the Twins by now. Instead, he had Tommy John surgery and will likely miss at least half of the 2018 season.That’s why he’s a borderline add.
12.) Mason Melotakis - He spent about a season and a half on the 40-man roster, but last month he was removed. His velocity has been down, but he has been very good since his promotion to Rochester. It’s possible he could be added back, though it may make more sense to call him up in late August or September.


3rd Tier

Remember the players in this group have a lot of talent. However, those first two groups of twelve, plus Dereck Rodriguez, are really talented and not all of them will be added.
  • Jhon Alvarez
  • DJ Baxendale
  • Cameron Booser
  • Sam Clay
  • Edgar Corcino
  • Andro Cutura
  • Eduardo Del Rosario
  • Ryan Eades
  • Tanner English
  • Edgar Herrera
  • Zack Jones
  • Randy LeBlanc
  • Jose Martinez
  • Amaurys Minier
  • Nelson Molina
  • Robert Molina
  • Ariel Montesino
  • Emmanuel Morel
  • Alex Muren
  • Max Murphy
  • Brian Navarreto
  • Callan Pearce
  • Johan Quezada
  • Williams Ramirez
  • Rainis Silva
  • Keaton Steele
  • Roni Tapia
  • Todd Van Steensel
  • Michael Theofanopoulos
  • Ryan Walker
  • TJ White
Before I get asked… and since this is right at the end, it probably will be asked (so you can answer it for me). What about Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez. Arraez signed in 2013, but not until November, so he won’t be eligible until next season. Palacios signed on September 6th, 2013, just days after the regular season ended. I believe that means that he does not have to be added until after the 2018 season as well.


So, with the above information, who would you add? The Twins have added anywhere from three players to eight players in a year, so it could be anywhere in there.

  • Oldgoat_MN, Dance with Disco Dan and gagu like this

  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

88 Comments

 

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

5 pending FA:
Belisle
Colon
Gee
Perkins
Santiago

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:
Gibson
Pressly
Gimenez
Grossman

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):
Boshers
Busenitz
Chargois
Hildenberger
O'Rourke
Randy Rosario
Turley
Palka
Vargas

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

I could see all 5 pending Free Agents walk.  And that is a good thing.

    • 70charger and Vanimal46 like this

Burdi - If taken he has to spend 90 days on the active roster. The braves, knew about the TJ surgery, and looked at his other medicals and passed. He is another guy who I might gamble and leave off.


I don't know. The parameters of that trade were very much up in the air. Could be the Twins wanted the Braves to eat salary at that point. Or they were feeling out whether the Twins were going to leave Burdi unprotected...

Burdi is a tough one. Could he be added and then put on the 60 day DL?
Also is it possible that the Braves rejected him in part thinking he might be a potential rule 5 pickup thereby essentially adding another player to the trade? A very long shot I know.

There is no DL in the offseason, so there are only 40 spots until late March. At that point the Twins could move Burdi the 60-day, which could come in handy if they roster a minor league contract guy at the same time.

You might be onto something about the Braves and Burdi in Rule 5 -- they drafted an injured guy before. Although maybe the scuttled trade was the Twins trying to discourage other teams from drafting him -- teams don't get medical info on players before the Rule 5 draft, so health rumors can have an impact.
    • brvama and Oldgoat_MN like this

 

There is no DL in the offseason, so there are only 40 spots until late March. At that point the Twins could move Burdi the 60-day, which could come in handy if they roster a minor league contract guy at the same time.

You might be onto something about the Braves and Burdi in Rule 5 -- they drafted an injured guy before. Although maybe the scuttled trade was the Twins trying to discourage other teams from drafting him -- teams don't get medical info on players before the Rule 5 draft, so health rumors can have an impact.

 

Could be those sneaky Braves. Using the pretext of a trade to get a full look at the medicals before popping him in the Rule 5.

 

If there is a roster crunch, I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep keeping Burdi unprotected. 2 major injuries and a couple minor ones before he even reaches the majors. Just don't see him as much of a long term asset.

    • 70charger, Sconnie and howieramone2 like this

I may be wrong about this because I don't fully understand the rule 5 eligibility parameters, but doesn't Diaz have another year before he needs to be added?

 

According to his MiLB page, he signed in November of 2013, so wouldn't that put him in the same boat as Palacios and Arraez?

 

If he is eligible this year, I would tend to agree with others who have pointed out that it seems unlikely that a team would give a 25-man spot to a guy who hasn't played above low A. 

 

Edit: I also see an article from Ben Badler dated July 2, 2013 saying that the Twins signed Lewin Diaz. So, that should help muddy the water. 

 

I was wondering if/how much these stipulations effect international signings. Seems that teams would want to wait until later to sign the players - so they could agree to terms but wait until the fall to officially sign. On the other hand, I suppose players/agents could push to sign earlier to try to get on the 40-man earlier. 

Considering the Twins haven't developed a good SP for themselves outside of Jose Berrios in years, there is absolutely no way I don't protect Thorpe, Slegers, and Stewart. Say what you want about Stewart, but he has yet to fail a level and is a former #4 overall pick. There is no way someone wouldn't take a chance on him.

 

I'm not sure how I feel about adding Lewin Diaz this early. It looks like a Jorge Polanco situation where at least his first two option years will be used in the low minors or AA. That sucks for Polanco because he doesn't have the opportunity to go back down to AAA to get some work in when he clearly needs it. If the FO thinks Diaz absolutely gets taken, then I'm fine with him being protected.

    • 70charger likes this

If I was San Diego or some other team that is a likely loser next year I would love to grab another teams top ten prospect in the rule 5 draft.  Super easy way to gain a young controllable player for nothing.  Who cares if Diaz takes up a bench spot all year they are a losing team anyway.  When the Twins were super bad I would have hoped they would do something like that.

Photo
drivlikejehu
Aug 01 2017 08:37 AM

Diaz isn't good enough for a team to stash him like that.

    • beckmt, bluechipper, Vanimal46 and 1 other like this

 

If I was San Diego or some other team that is a likely loser next year I would love to grab another teams top ten prospect in the rule 5 draft.  Super easy way to gain a young controllable player for nothing.  Who cares if Diaz takes up a bench spot all year they are a losing team anyway.  When the Twins were super bad I would have hoped they would do something like that.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but consideration also has to be given to how it would impact the player's development. Roster constraints also impact the decisions the team has to make about other players as well. 

    • Dman likes this

Diaz is in the same situation Kepler was a few years ago. (I even asked BA about him back then) Kepler was [added but I don't know why] anyone would add a low-A 1B/DH to their major league roster at this point. 

 

Not even sure Diaz would be in my top 10 right now and Kepler definitely was.

 

Edit: Kepler actually was put on the 40-man that year, but my point still stands.

 

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

5 pending FA:
Belisle
Colon
Gee
Perkins
Santiago

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:
Gibson
Pressly
Gimenez
Grossman

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):
Boshers
Busenitz
Chargois
Hildenberger
O'Rourke
Randy Rosario
Turley
Palka
Vargas

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

 

Thanks for putting this together spy! Based off your list, I would let all 5 pending FA's walk. On the arbitration list, I would give Pressly one more chance (on a very short leash) and tender Grossman. There's still a need for a high on-base guy in the lineup and he fills that need at a fairly cheap rate. 

 

On the potential cuts list, I would bring up Turley for the bullpen right now so they can decide between him and Boshers for next season. Chargois is my dark horse DFA... 3 seasons lost to arm injuries. Enough is enough. I wouldn't have any issue letting O'Rourke, Palka, and Vargas go either. 

    • Oldgoat_MN likes this

 

Diaz isn't good enough for a team to stash him like that.

I totally get that he would be in way, way over his head but how much do rule 5 guys play anyway?  We limped along with Haley most of this year and he barely played.  If you are a rebuilding team I don't know why you wouldn't consider it.

 

I will say most of the position players taken have been above A ball and SS, CF or Catchers.  I guess there must be more that goes into it than just grabbing a good prospect.

 

I totally get that he would be in way, way over his head but how much do rule 5 guys play anyway?  We limped along with Haley most of this year and he barely played.  If you are a rebuilding team I don't know why you wouldn't consider it.

 

I will say most of the position players taken have been above A ball and SS, CF or Catchers.  I guess there must be more that goes into it than just grabbing a good prospect.

 

Even if you're a terrible team, you'd still want your Rule 5 pick to have some sort of positional flexibility or play a premium position like SS, CF, or C. I don't know if you would want an over his head 1B only on roster all season long. That's a tough pill to swallow even for a 90+ loss team. 

    • sftwinsfan and caninatl04 like this

Every year people say the decisions will be hard, and every year almost no one of meaning is taken. Since MLB changed the rules, almost no one of value has been taken across all of MLB in rule V.

 

that said:

100% Thorpe and Stewart are protected. 100%. Thorpe and Stewart might be ready to be a MLB starter next year at some point.

    • beckmt, bluechipper, Vanimal46 and 1 other like this
Photo
jorgenswest
Aug 01 2017 09:17 AM
I don't think there will be any tough decisions. The Twins have plenty of space to clear on the 40. They won't lose anyone with upside.
    • Mike Sixel, beckmt, HitInAPinch and 3 others like this

 

I don't think there will be any tough decisions. The Twins have plenty of space to clear on the 40. They won't lose anyone with upside.

 

This is rational and I agree 100%. But we've been here long enough to know there will be threads created over the winter raising pitchforks for losing (insert player name here) to the Rule 5 draft. 

    • Mike Sixel, beckmt, HitInAPinch and 2 others like this
I'll take a shot at this. I see as many as 9 taken off the 40 man (seems we have a lot of guys on DL with highly questionable futures, I.e. Hughes, Perkins and guys that aren't contributing). My givens are: Gonsalves Littrell Curtiss Reed Thorpe On the fence with Bard and Stewart. I'd call up Bard and see what he can do and then decide. As for Stewart, oh boy. Look at his last start; he goes 6 innings on 93 pitches but 60% were strikes but he still manages to walk 4 batters. Yet, he didn't get bombed, as he gave up 7 hits but still managed 6 SO's and ultimately got the win. The kid must have some Irish in him because he does seem lucky when he pitches. So as one fellow Irishman to another, I guess I'd keep him. The rest, tough calls , good players but I'd leave spots open for trades and FA's. As for Burdi, I see his situation play out like Z Jones (another fireballer) where Brewers took him and returned him to the Twins this past Spring. As always, great job Seth.

Great lists Seth. Thanks for this thread.

 

I would absolutely leave Diaz unprotected and add Thorpe to the 1st tier. He will only be 22 next year. Gotta believe he would get taken. I suspect he would do better for a team in the mop up roll than Haley did for us this year.

 

I, too, would let the five pending FA that spycake identified walk (Belisle, Colon, Gee, Perkins, Santiago).

I will also have a breakdown if they tender a contract to Gimenez. With Garver posting an OPS of >.850 in AAA they need to bring him up.

Guys I would add (in no particular order):

 

1. Gonsalves
2. Rodriguez
3. Littell
4. Reed
5. Curtiss
6. Thorpe
7. Stewart

 

Not sure all of them will be, but I suspect the Twins are gonna lose a guy or two any way it shakes out.

    • Dman likes this

Good list. I don't really see anyone holding down a major league job in a lot of the players you mentioned (like Thorpe or Kohl Stewart).

 

Mason already went thru waivers and could've been claimed by any team with a 40-man spot. But somehow he made in thru. Go figure?

 

If anything, I would use the current open spots to look at players on the fringe, like Baxendale, Hurlbut, Slegers and what they do in their brief looksees would determine if they stay or go. Are they also six year minor league free agents that might jsts walk anyways?

 

The Twins have to be really careful adding folks like Diaz, too far away...yet can they be lost in the minor league portion of the draft?

 

Looking at this season, we already have Vielma, Romero, Jorge taking up space and not really ready for the majors, and we can argue if they will be major league ready before any of the added candidates from this off-season.

 

The Twins could have up to 14 roster spots available between now and the beginning of spring training, if they really wanted to be hard-lined. 

 

And the newcomers will get some consideration, although what is the potential for any of them staying on a major league roster (unless a Wild Card like the Padres come into play and grab three rokkies to keep on the roster and in their system). That is where you have to think long and hard about Littell and Moya, for example.

 

But you realize how few candidates the Twins have for 40-man spots in the offensive part of the roster. Very few.

 

And looks like we may be saying goodbye to high draft picks Levi Michael and Travis Harrison.

 

And, hey, weren't we talking that our bullpen, by now, would be people like Reed, Burdi, Cederoth, Bard, Zach Jones, Chargois, Melotakis. As early as this season? How the world of prospects can change........

    • caninatl04 likes this

 

The Twins have to be really careful adding folks like Diaz, too far away...yet can they be lost in the minor league portion of the draft?

 

Check out the link in my post above about Kepler. This is explained in depth there.

 

If Diaz isn't on the 40-man he assuredly will be on the Triple-A reserve roster, meaning he can't be selected in minor league phase.

 

Lots of A-ball top prospects are on the Triple-A reserve roster for this reason (which is a 38-man list). Also, just as an FYI, the reserve rosters are not published to the public.

    • Oldgoat_MN likes this

Burdi is a tough one. Could he be added and then put on the 60 day DL?
Also is it possible that the Braves rejected him in part thinking he might be a potential rule 5 pickup thereby essentially adding another player to the trade? A very long shot I know.

60 day DL is only in season. So you would lose his spot all off season. He's a 2019 guy at best, I'd try to sneak him through the rule 5 draft.
    • brvama likes this

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

5 pending FA:
Belisle
Colon
Gee
Perkins
Santiago

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:
Gibson
Pressly
Gimenez
Grossman

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):
Boshers
Busenitz
Chargois
Hildenberger
O'Rourke
Randy Rosario
Turley
Palka
Vargas

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

do you really think it's possible Pohlad eats 26 mil for Hughes?

I wouldn't have considered it, except they took on the dead contract for Garcia.

Man that's an expensive oopsie/extension
Photo
bluechipper
Aug 01 2017 10:48 AM

Kohl Stewart should be a given. He's got a 2.99 career ERA, and even in his bad current year, he's got a 3.86 ERA in AA as a 22 year old. With his stuff and previous prospect status, he would almost surely get taken.

    • Steve Lein, milldam, KGB and 2 others like this

If there is a roster crunch, I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep keeping Burdi unprotected. 2 major injuries and a couple minor ones before he even reaches the majors. Just don't see him as much of a long term asset.


Agreed, although look at it this way: how would you feel if the Twins grabbed a Burdi from someone else in Rule 5? But I agree with the others too, that there shouldn't be much of a meaningful crunch.

Similar Articles


by Cody Christie , Yesterday, 07:35 PM
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 17 Aug 2017
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 17 Aug 2017
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 15 Aug 2017
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 10 Aug 2017
Photo