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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Biggest Off-Season Need

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:15 AM
Twins Daily Roundtable is a weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respond i...
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Article: OAK 7, MIN 6: Khrush Davis Walks Off Twins

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:13 AM
The Twins went toe-to-toe with the postseason-bound A’s but couldn’t contain Khris Davis. Khrush put Oakland up 2-0 in the first inning t...
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I'm Yawning...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:15 AM
  Maybe I'm burned out on the horrible season the Twins had this year or maybe its apathy, but this is the first time in many years...
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Article: Across the Meadow: The Buxton Saga

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:15 AM
John and Jeremy cover every angle of the Twins decision to not bring Byron Buxton up in September. At a minimum, it's a curious decision....
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Article: 5 Things the Twins Absolutely Must Accomplish Th...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:15 AM
A little over one week remains in the 2018 campaign. I think we're all about ready to move on and forget about this one. So let's look ah...
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Looking Back: Twins Take Four Prep Hitters Atop 2016 Draft

In 2015, first-year manager Paul Molitor led the Minnesota Twins to an 83-79 win, the team’s first .500 season since 2010. Because of that, they did not make their first draft pick in 2016 until pick #15. However, they had four of the first 74 picks in that 2016 MLB draft. It is very early in their development, just over two years since they were drafted, but to this point it should be deemed a very strong draft for the Twins, full of potential big leaguers.

Recently, I caught up with former Twins scouting director Deron Johnson to discuss his final draft picks. Find out a little more about what the Twins’ scouts saw in their draft picks. Today, we’ll look at those first four picks (Alex Kirilloff, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Miranda and Akil Baddoo) and, coming soon, we’ll dig a little deeper into the other players selected that year that have developed well so far.
Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (Top L to R: Alex Kirilloff, Ben Rortvedt, Bottom L to R: Akil Baddoo, Jose Miranda)
“I don’t know about other organizations, but it’s unprecedented in our history of the way we’ve drafted over the course of years. To take four high school position players with consecutive picks, I don’t think a lot of teams have done that.” Deron Johnson, Twins Senior Advisor to Scouting, continued, “I’m proud. It’s a bold move, I think.I don’t know many teams that have done that in the past. So far so good with the results.”

Johnson, as you recall, became the Twins scouting director in 2008 and held the position through the 2016 season when he received his promotion to the Senior Scouting Advisor role.

Alex Kirilloff has been one of the most impressive hitters in all of minor league baseball in 2018. Ben Rortvedt’s development both at the plate and behind the plate has been noticed by the organization. Jose Miranda’s 2018 season started slow in Cedar Rapids, but he’s been raking since and recently earned his promotion to Ft. Myers. Akil Baddoo remains in Cedar Rapids at this point, but he’s been very impressive at the plate and in center field and continues to improve.

Deron Johnson insists that the plan coming into the draft wasn’t necessarily to take four high school kids right away. “You have a plan, but being able to watch our system over the years, I knew that we were in need of some position players. It just so happened.”

Here is a quick look back at the top four Twins draft picks in 2016 through the eyes of Deron Johnson.


ALEX KIRILLOFF

“He hasn’t missed a beat since he had that layoff.”

That layoff, of course, was missing the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery. As you know, Kirilloff has not only been arguably the top hitter in the Twins minor leagues this year, but maybe one of the best in all of minor league baseball. He spent the first 65 games of his 2018 season in Cedar Rapids. He hit .333/.391/.607 (.999) with 20 doubles, five triples, 13 home runs and 56 RBI. He played in the Midwest League All-Star Game and then immediately was promoted to Ft. Myers. He represented the Twins on Team USA at the Futures Game, and went 2-for-2. In his 47 games with the Miracle, he has hit .365/.385/.547 (.932) with 19 doubles, two triples, four home runs and 37 RBI.

The Twins used the 15th overall pick to take Kirilloff who played high school ball for Plum High School near Pittsburgh. While they drafted him in 2016, they had known about him for a couple of years already. He made a major impression on Johnson at Petco Park in San Diego a year before the draft.

Johnson, recalled, “He hit a ball during the Perfect Game All-American Game in Petco. I mean, it was an absolute bomb. Left-handers don’t hit balls out a lot at that park. Mostly right-handers because the ball kind of travels there. That showed me that this guy’s got power.”

Johnson saw him again early in the 2016 season. “I saw him a couple of times. I saw him two or three games in Florida early in spring and we identified him as a guy going into the draft.”

Shortly before the draft, Johnson traveled to Pittsburgh to see Kirilloff play. Unfortunately, the game was rained out. It ended up creating a great opportunity for the scout. “ I got a chance to see him practice. A lot of times, it’s better than seeing the games. I got a chance to speak with the kid, see how he goes about his business, see how he interacts with his teammates, and that was great. Plus we had a lot of looks on him too.”

BEN RORTVEDT

There is this perception that players from northern states can’t get seen by scouts as easily as players from southern states. There is some truth to that, but the top prep players now are playing in the summer baseball circuit across the country, and they are the showcases necessary if players want to get drafted. That is where Rortvedt was first seen.

Johnson pointed out, “We got a lot of looks in the summer. He played against the best guys. He was on that Perfect Game tour, played in the All-America Game. We definitely relied on Mike Ruth, Mike Radcliff, and Mark Wilson, the scout that had the area at the time. We had a lot of coverage on him. We had a lot of looks.”

Rortvedt was the Twins second-round draft pick, the 56th overall pick in the draft, out of Verona High School in Verona, Wisconsin. He split that season between the GCL and Elizabethton. He made the jump to Cedar Rapids in 2017, and admittedly he struggled with the bat. But he was gaining experience and making improvements. He returned to Cedar Rapids to start the 2018 season. In 39 games, he hit .276/.325/.386 (.711) with 12 extra base hits. He has now played 39 games since being promoted to Ft. Myers. He has hit .244/.342/.351 (.693) with eight extra base hits (including a two home run game).

Behind the plate, he is blessed with a very strong arm and has gained a reputation for working well with his pitchers. But there is a thought, a hope that he will be able to continue making strides offensively as well.

Johnson believes in Rortvedt’s offensive potential. “I think he can. I think he’s strong. For him, I think it’s all about approach .He’s got a nice swing. He’s a very strong young man. A lot of that’s been addressed. Drive the ball. If he can consistently learn to and want to drive the ball, the sky's the limit for him. He’s one of the younger guys again in the Florida State League. He doesn’t strike out much, makes contact. He’s got raw power. There’s no question about that. Is he going to be a 25-home run guy? Well, I’m not going to say he can’t.”

But again, his defense is where he can really affect a game. “His defense has improved immensely. He can really throw. He can stop a running game. He’s athletic behind the plate. Someone quoted me after the draft where I said that he looks like he was born to catch.I truly believe that He looks like a catcher. He looks like one of those old school catchers from the ‘50s. The big forearms, the squared jaw. The real strong face. He’s young. He’s still got some immaturity. He’s not grown up yet. It’s going to take some time, but he works at it. He really gives a good effort. His game-calling has really improved. I think all aspects of his game have gotten better.”

JOSE MIRANDA

The Twins added the 73rd overall pick in the 2017 as part of the compensation round. Miranda was another guy that the Twins had seen quite a bit of, including at a Perfect Game event.

Miranda actually grew up in Florida. According to Johnson, “He had played in the States. His mom is a flight attendant located in Florida. He went to high school in Florida his freshman and sophomore years, and then he moved back to Puerto Rico.”

He started out this season at Cedar Rapids and like the weather conditions, he was cold. As the temperatures, Miranda’s bat heated up. In 104 total games with the Kernels, he hit .277/.326/.434 (.760) with 22 doubles, 13 home runs and 72 RBI. He has now played in eight games since being promoted to the Ft. Myers Miracle.

He had his coming out party, of sorts, at Perfect Game. “We didn’t know who he was. (Delvin) Perez was the main guy. (Long-time Twins scout) Freddie Thon said, let’s take a look at this guy. I kind of like this guy.”

“We saw him, and we like everything about him. We’ve always liked his bat. His defense is getting better. He’s found a home at 3B. He’s going to be a big man.”

Miranda was drafted as a shortstop, but it was known that he wouldn’t stay there, though he did make one start there since joining the Miracle. He split much of his time in Cedar Rapids between second base and third base.

AKIL BADDOO

In the 2015 draft, the Twins used their second round pick (73rd pick) on right-handed pitcher Kyle Cody, a Wisconsin native who had spent three years at the University of Kentucky. For a few reasons, Cody did not sign with the Twins. Because they did not sign him, the Twins received the 74th overall pick of the 2016 draft.

The Twins went to a familiar place for this selection. They signed a tremendous athlete out of high school in Georgia. In 2010, they drafted Niko Goodrum out of Fayette County High School in Georgia. In 2012, the Twins used the second overall pick in the draft on Byron Buxton who went to Appling County High School in Baxley, Georgia. Akil Baddoo continues that line of Twins great athletes selected by the Twins out of Georgia.

Johnson noted, “Akil is coming into his own. He always kind of knew the strike zone as a high school kid. He’s from Georgia and he plays some really good competition. Georgia is one of the few areas in the country, along with Southern California and Florida and Texas, they play a lot of good baseball. It’s been a hotbed, not just for us, but for the industry.”

Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State are a couple of powerhouse colleges, but the prep ranks are loaded with great talent. In fact, when the Twins used the 74th overall pick in Akil Baddoo, he became the seventh Georgia high school kid drafted in 2016. Josh Lowe was the 13th overall pick by the Rays. With the 14th pick, Cleveland’s selection was Will Benson. Carter Kierboom was the 28th overall pick by the Nationals. Taylor Trammell went to the Reds with the 35th pick. The Angels selected Brandon Marsh with the 60th overall pick. Alex Speas went #63 to the Texas Rangers.

Johnson saw all of them, but he wondered why Baddoo wasn’t always mentioned in the same breath as some of those top picks.

“He’s from out in the country, a little town called Conyers. Akil, everyone knew him, but he was the second tier of that group. Taylor Trammell came out that year. Three or four first-round picks come out of Atlanta that year. I was always curious why people weren’t talking about Akil more. We got a lot of looks at him.”

He was seen a lot the summer before he was drafted. But it was very late in the summer when Baddoo took another step forward in the eyes of the Twins scouts.

“We saw him at a Puerto Rico event the winter before the draft. The Mets put together a showcase where they bring a team from the States, and they play against Puerto Rican kids. It’s a great event. It’s after other events so you don’t get a lot of kids to show up. They’re tired. But Akil was there. He showed his passion for baseball. We liked him during the summer and were excited to see him show up. He went off there. He hit the ball hard, drove some balls, ran hard.”

Baddoo was the Twins Daily choice for short-season Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2017when he split the season between the GCL and Elizabethton. He has now played in 101 games this season for the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He has hit .241/.354/.413 (.767) with 19 doubles, nine triples and ten home runs. He also has 21 stolen bases in 26 attempts.

Baddoo is a great athlete and has the built of a football player.“He’s strong. He’s like a running back. For me, he’s running better than when we drafted him. He’s a 70 runner. He’s playing way better defense. Mike Quade’s done a really good job with him defensively. He was a little raw defensively, but he’s got a different throwing action, but he can throw the ball. That’s maybe the one negative, the throwing. He’s getting much better. He’s got a chance to be a plus base runner.”

-----------------------------------------------------------------

It is certainly not normal for a team to use four draft picks in the top two rounds and use each of them on high school hitters. To this point, the Twins front office has to be thrilled with all four picks. Each has experienced success and advanced up the organizational ladder appropriately, maybe even aggressive in some cases.

2016 was Deron Johnson’s final draft as scouting director, replaced by Sean Johnson. He says he is enjoying his new role where he gets to scout in many places. He was involved in the amateur scouting, the pro scouting and has had a chance to do some work internationally as well. But he has the right to be proud and excited about what the future might hold for his final draft.

“I got a chance to see all those guys this summer, and it was fun to see. I got to see Alex. He’s done tremendously. Ben has been doing really well. He’s really improved defensively and his bat is coming on, so that is encouraging. Baddoo, despite his batting average, his peripheral numbers are really good. He’s hitting for some power, a bunch of doubles and stolen bases. And Miranda, I was there when he started heating up too.” Johnson continued. “It’s encouraging seeing those kids playwell. I think Alex Is the oldest at 20-years-old. Akil won’t be 20 until the end of the year. It’s awesome seeing those guys have that kind of success this early in their career. ”


But what is just as exciting as the top four picks, there are several other players that the Twins drafted in 2016 who remain in the organization and also have a chance to reach the big leagues. Will they? There’s no way to know that yet, of course, but several are on the right path. Soon, we will continue the conversation with Deron Johnson and discuss the rest of the Twins 2016 draft. It is a draft class that the Twins and their front office should be excited about.

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29 Comments

Thanks Seth and Deron.  I love reading this stuff.  Lets bookmark this page and hope we're looking back at it in 25 years or something, saying "remember when..."

    • Seth Stohs, glunn, James and 2 others like this
Great article. Love the insight

Wonderful read! Though I have zero faith in Deron Johnson.

    • Thrylos likes this
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diehardtwinsfan
Aug 15 2018 06:05 AM

Funny thing is that those weren't the only prep guys they took. Blazovic and Benninghoff were both taken (though Benninghoff was already in TJS recovery at the time), though neither of these guys have really shined so far. On the college side, the got Tyler Wells and Griffen Jax.

 

This draft is looking to be a monster draft. 

    • glunn, birdwatcher, gunnarthor and 6 others like this

Thanks, Seth.Great draft for the Twins.Just got to get all of them to Target Field!  

 

Funny thing is that those weren't the only prep guys they took. Blazovic and Benninghoff were both taken (though Benninghoff was already in TJS recovery at the time), though neither of these guys have really shined so far. On the college side, the got Tyler Wells and Griffen Jax.

 

This draft is looking to be a monster draft. 

 

There'll be a Part 2... no worries... 

 

    • glunn, diehardtwinsfan, SF Twins Fan and 1 other like this

“He’s from out in the country, a little town called Conyers"

 

That little town, is on I-20, east side of Atlanta, now considered in metro. Travel ball is crazy down here.I was talking to a Mother whose son is a,6'1" Junior, pitcher, radar reading at 94 mph but has excellent slider and change up.Mets been scouting him for 2 yrs.He's on a elite team, coached by ex mlb player, travel all over country.Has 2 kids from Canada that stay here and are on the team.   

 

They just had their son return from AZ, he was pumped.Flew 1st class and back.Otherwise, Mom and Dad log lots of weekend miles and Motels. Heck of a sacrifice on their part.

 

For the most part, the scouts know all the kids.The Mets scout talks only with their son/coaches and not to the parents. Scouts like his secondary stuff.As for radar readings, some kids down here are hitting 95 plus  

 

Once High School season starts, the elite travel ball is shut down.

    • glunn, Oldgoat_MN, 70charger and 3 others like this
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ashburyjohn
Aug 15 2018 07:54 AM

But again, his defense is where he can really affect a game. “His defense has improved immensely. He can really throw. He can stop a running game. He’s athletic behind the plate. Someone quoted me after the draft where I said that he looks like he was born to catch.I truly believe that He looks like a catcher. He looks like one of those old school catchers from the ‘50s. The big forearms, the squared jaw. The real strong face. He’s young. He’s still got some immaturity. He’s not grown up yet. It’s going to take some time, but he works at it. He really gives a good effort. His game-calling has really improved. I think all aspects of his game have gotten better.”

I'm surprised to hear his defense has improved immensely. The things he's praised for here are the things that were said when he was drafted, and also were the things that jumped out at me when I saw him in Spring Training in 2017. "Improved immensely" usually is more of a left-handed compliment.

 

Also, I am amused/intrigued about the squared jaw and so forth. It's a cliche that old-school scouts look for "the good face", and here it's stated in almost comically direct terms. It's fine, and may even be shorthand for valuable traits (such as adequate testosterone for the tasks at hand), but still seems less than a scalpel-sharp way of going about it in these analytically-aware times. Does the Collective Bargaining Agreement permit blood tests and DNA testing? Is Ben a 75 on the Face Tool scale? :)

    • Thrylos, Mike Sixel, James and 2 others like this

 

Funny thing is that those weren't the only prep guys they took. Blazovic and Benninghoff were both taken (though Benninghoff was already in TJS recovery at the time), though neither of these guys have really shined so far. On the college side, the got Tyler Wells and Griffen Jax.

 

This draft is looking to be a monster draft. 

Yep, absolutely loved this draft. 

    • diehardtwinsfan likes this

milb.com article on the stat leaders. Kirilloff in same stratosphere of names with Vlad, Jr
Currently leads all full-season minor leaguers in hits and XBH

 

https://www.milb.com...ads/c-290310514

    • glunn, Han Joelo, gunnarthor and 4 others like this

 

milb.com article on the stat leaders. Kirilloff in same stratosphere of names with Vlad, Jr
Currently leads all full-season minor leaguers in hits and XBH

 

https://www.milb.com...ads/c-290310514

Wow, Wells is second in whip. I hadn't realized quite how nice his season had been.

    • glunn and Twins33 like this

Great stuff, Seth!

 

Have to laugh when Deron Johnson says "We got a lot of looks at him".

 

Was waiting for him to say "Never saw the kid play. Not once. Heard about him so we just decided to take a flyer".LOL

 

    • ashburyjohn and Seth Stohs like this

 

Also, I am amused/intrigued about the squared jaw and so forth. It's a cliche that old-school scouts look for "the good face", and here it's stated in almost comically direct terms. It's fine, and may even be shorthand for valuable traits (such as adequate testosterone for the tasks at hand), but still seems less than a scalpel-sharp way of going about it in these analytically-aware times. Does the Collective Bargaining Agreement permit blood tests and DNA testing? Is Ben a 75 on the Face Tool scale? :)

 

I was thinking that too. Sounds like something Michael Lewis would make fun of in Moneyball. How's his girlfriend look? That's what I want to know.

    • Mike Sixel likes this

On Cue to this article

Kirilloff doubled in the second (#20 at FTM) and Rortvedt singled him in.

Miranda walked in between, as did Costello

    • ashburyjohn, glunn and birdwatcher like this

 

I'm surprised to hear his defense has improved immensely. The things he's praised for here are the things that were said when he was drafted, and also were the things that jumped out at me when I saw him in Spring Training in 2017. "Improved immensely" usually is more of a left-handed compliment.

 

Also, I am amused/intrigued about the squared jaw and so forth. It's a cliche that old-school scouts look for "the good face", and here it's stated in almost comically direct terms. It's fine, and may even be shorthand for valuable traits (such as adequate testosterone for the tasks at hand), but still seems less than a scalpel-sharp way of going about it in these analytically-aware times. Does the Collective Bargaining Agreement permit blood tests and DNA testing? Is Ben a 75 on the Face Tool scale? :)

This is pretty funny. I also wonder if people make positive attributions on certain names/frames that sound and look strong DNA wise. I've suspected that part of the Travis Blankenhorn ranking has to do with his name/appearance. If he were named more generically like Jim Smith or Jose Rodriquez would people rank him as highly?

Kirilloff 4-4/2 doubles/R.
21 doubles in FTM. had 20 in CR, in 17 more games

 

Hitting .378 

 

Machine

    • glunn and James like this

Kirilloff 4-4/2 doubles/R.
21 doubles in FTM. had 20 in CR, in 17 more games

Hitting .378

Machine


He's truly making a mockery of the league. No reason for him to see A ball again after this season.

Re: Rortvedt:He is hitting worse than Butera did in high A. 

 

Just sayin'regarding that "improvement".Does not need to do much to improve from a below .600 OPS your first 2 seasons as a pro.Whether that might be enough to make him a major leaguer and not yet another high pick wasted under Deron Johnson, is yet to be determined.

 

Wish that someone asked this guy about Levi Michael, Trevor Harrison, Boyd, Bauer, Shooter Hunt, the closers to be turned into starters strategy, and the rest.

 

But nobody does...

 

This is pretty funny. I also wonder if people make positive attributions on certain names/frames that sound and look strong DNA wise. I've suspected that part of the Travis Blankenhorn ranking has to do with his name/appearance. If he were named more generically like Jim Smith or Jose Rodriquez would people rank him as highly?

 

I'm pretty sure none of that matters even a little bit.

    • 108Stitches likes this

 

Re: Rortvedt:He is hitting worse than Butera did in high A. 

 

Just sayin'regarding that "improvement".Does not need to do much to improve from a below .600 OPS your first 2 seasons as a pro.Whether that might be enough to make him a major leaguer and not yet another high pick wasted under Deron Johnson, is yet to be determined.

 

Wish that someone asked this guy about Levi Michael, Trevor Harrison, Boyd, Bauer, Shooter Hunt, the closers to be turned into starters strategy, and the rest.

 

But nobody does...

 

Of course, Drew Butera was 3-years older at the time... Oh, and he's in his 9th MLB season...And, anyone who watched Rortvedt last year and watched him again this year and worries about the numbers just isn't watching. He's made some solid strides. No one is saying that he is a finished project. It'll take him a while to get to the big leagues, but he's got a chance. 

 

And, I was doing a story on the 2016 draft... So, no reason for me to ask him about other guys... 

    • glunn, birdwatcher, gunnarthor and 4 others like this
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ashburyjohn
Aug 16 2018 07:28 AM

Re: Rortvedt:He is hitting worse than Butera did in high A.

 

I'm not highly satisfied with Ben's numbers yet, either.

 

But I would not attempt to compare a college draftee playing at high-A at age 23 with a high schooler who is there at age 20. It's just not a comp. No way no how.

 

/ edit - guess I failed to turn the page and see that Seth already addressed this...

    • birdwatcher, gunnarthor, Twins33 and 2 others like this
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birdwatcher
Aug 16 2018 08:16 AM

 

 

 

Wish that someone asked this guy about Levi Michael, Trevor Harrison, Boyd, Bauer, Shooter Hunt, the closers to be turned into starters strategy, and the rest.

 

But nobody does...

 

You're kidding, right? I think you've kicked this dead horse enough for all of us. ;)

 

This thread is about what many are thinking will be a monster draft class, for which Deron Johnson deserves a modicum of credit, as do five dozen other important staffers that "nobody ever mentions". But if you were going to be at all fair in bringing up the names you brought up to disparage the man, you'd bring up the success stories too,

 

But you never do... ;)

 

Any player selected after about pick #25 has what, a 25% chance at the very best of seeing the show? So if you look at the record in that light and with that context, and delve past the inevitable stinkers, you get to more of the truth than we do in just prattling off a handful of names. This list shows the order in which each player was selected. Note that most of the numbers are three digits:

 

2007 Ben Revere (28)

2008 Aaron Hicks (14)

2009 Kyle Gibson (22)

 Brian Dozier (252)

2010 Eddie Rosario (135)

 Niko Goodrum (71)

2011 Dereck Rodrigez (208)

2012 Jose Berrios (32)

 Byron Buxton (1) *bad pick by Deron Johnson?

 JT Chargois (72)

 Taylor Rogers (340)

 Tyler Duffey (160)

2013 Kohl Stewart (4)

 Stephen Gonsalves (110)

 Mitch Garver (260)

 Aaron Slegers (140)

 Zach Granite (410)

 Stewart Turner (78)

2014Nick Gordon (5)

 Trevor Hildenberger (650)

 John Curtiss (170)

 Jake Reed (140)

2015 Tyler Jay (6)

 Travis Blankenhorn (80)

 Jovani Moran (200)

 LaMont Wade (260)

 Andrew Vasquez (950)* Hildenberger/ Taylor Rogers-type long shot?

 Jaylin Davis (710)

 

I learn two lessons from this list. One, when we look at the entire body of work under Deron Johnson and crew, the stinkers like Tyler Jay, while glaring and disappointing, do not allow one to be credible in their disparagement, but instead, they are allowed to either be unfair in their criticism or ignorant of the facts. Second, we don't even know that much by looking at such a list without COMPARING results against peers, and no, citing the MLB won-loss record isn't evidence of anything, really. Dereck Rodriguez and Aaron Hicks were still solid selections. Over time, I've done some of my own comparing, just to see if I'm missing something by holding onto a view that the Twins have had other problems that far outstrip any systemic issues with scouting and talent evaluation. I have yet to be dissuaded. But i"m still open to it.

 

 

    • gunnarthor, 70charger and howieramone2 like this
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ashburyjohn
Aug 16 2018 08:47 AM

But you never do... ;)

Moderator's note: OK, this is getting overly personal. Let's keep it about the topic.

 

PS: Bird, you don't seem to be able to receive new Private Messages - please check whether your mailbox here is full.

    • glunn likes this
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birdwatcher
Aug 16 2018 09:29 AM

As for 2016, it will obviously be awhile before anyone can proclaim it to be the monster draft that it shows the promise to be. If it fulfills its promise, Deron Johnson will probably still be humble enough to mention all the "we's". "We had a lot of looks." And he should pass along the credit.

 

A lot of those "looks" at Kirilloff were by the same scouts who had looks at, say, Levi Michael, Brian Dozier, Travis Harrison, Trevor Hildenberger, Hudson Boyd, and Taylor Rogers.

 

Again, to blame scouting for failures and not credit the same scouts for success, and then to conclude that the bad results indicate ineptitude? Help me out with that. Explain why the successes happened.

 

Some decisions that produce bad results can't be defended. But some can. Of the 30 prospects selected after Levi Michael in a notoriously shallow draft pool, only 7 have produced positive WAR as MLB players, less than 25%, so perhaps organizations should be forgiven if their particular selection isn't one of the success stories. Of the 10 prospects selected after Travis Harrison, only one is a major leaguer. Should we expect our organization to have passed on Harrison and the 9 other failures and hit on the one success story? And teams can't expect to know these prospects well enough to predict which individuals will suffer from addiction, mental health problems, and injuries.

 

Which means that if 2016 IS in fact a great class, luck will have factored into it to some extent.

    • howieramone2 likes this
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howieramone2
Aug 16 2018 05:08 PM

 

Wonderful read! Though I have zero faith in Deron Johnson.

It's hard to have faith in a guy who gave us all those monster drafts.


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