Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

l~8O382444O9 Cash ~ App! #KR98#!~recognizes impor...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:14 AM
Growing up in Concord, it wasn't unusual to find Frank Allocco Jr. sitting in the stands at Clayton Valley SQUARE CASH APP boys basketbal...
Full topic ›

l (8O3) 824-44O9 Cash ~ App! #KR98#!~recognizes i...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:14 AM
On the off chance that you are searching for an ideal and solid source to determine your CASH APP related inquiries from the above-portra...
Full topic ›

l~8O3~824~44O9 Cash ~ App! #KR98#!~recognizes imp...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:14 AM
She left for the Twin Cities in 2007, eventually rising to the No. 2 position in the St. Paul school system. She is currently the executi...
Full topic ›

l 8O3=824=44O9 Cash ~ App! #KR98#!~recognizes imp...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:14 AM
Money started working as Square money lication before rebranding. It is a shared installment administration that was created by their par...
Full topic ›

cash app 𝐥-𝟖𝐎𝟑-𝟖𝟐𝟒-𝟒𝟒𝐎𝟗 Cash ~ App! #KR98#!~recog...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:14 AM
Growing up in Concord, it wasn't unusual to find Frank Allocco Jr. sitting in the stands at Clayton Valley SQUARE CASH APP boys basketbal...
Full topic ›

Recent Blogs


How Soon Could Royce Lewis Call Target Field Home?

On Monday night, 2017 #1 overall pick Royce Lewis faced 2018 #1 overall pick Casey Mize in Lakeland, Florida. It was the Florida State League debut for Mize. It was Lewis’s 21st game with the Miracle. On this night, Lewis went 2-for-2 with a home run against Mize, and 4-for-6 with two home runs overall as the Miracle topped the Flying Tigers 13-0.

Obviously it was a fun matchup, but it is a matchup that fans of the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers hope to see a lot of over the next decade, or more. As a hard-throwing right-hander, Mize is likely to fly through the Tigers system and could debut as early as midseason 2019. But it gets me wondering just when we might see that match up at Comerica Park or Target Field.
Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Royce Lewis)
One question I get often on Twins Daily and on Twitter: "When could we expect to see Royce Lewis in the big leagues with the Twins?" To answer that question, I thought it might make some sense to look at two recently drafted shortstops selected high in their particular drafts who have gone on to big league successes, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor and Houston’s Carlos Correa. Maybe a glimpse at their timelines might help us better understand a possible timeline for Royce Lewis.

Let’s start also by saying that anything below this point likely assumes health. That’s never a guarantee, and it certainly can effect a timeline. Secondly, Correa and Lindor are proven All-Stars already.

They are players that Lewis often gets compared to, and that’s not necessarily fair either. Royce Lewis gets comps to Derek Jeter, not to Lenny Faedo. But as Lewis has said frequently, while he enjoys watching those players and their games, he is not trying to be the next Player X. Instead, he insisted in a podcast interview this past offseason, “Being comped with players is pretty cool, but at the end of the day, I want to be Royce Lewis. I don’t want to be Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor, as amazing as those people are. I just want to be Royce Lewis, and I want to be my own type of person and bring something new to the game that others may have already brought but in my own special way.”

THE DRAFT

Royce Lewis: As we know, Lewis was the Twins top pick and the #1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. He had turned 18 years old just a week before being selected.

Carlos Correa: Houston surprised many people in and around the game of baseball when they selected Correa with the first overall pick out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. He didn’t turn 18 until a few weeks after his draft season (September).

Francisco Lindor: Lindor grew up in Puerto Rico, but he went to high school in Florida. Cleveland made him the #8 overall pick in the 2011 draft. He turned 18 five months after he was drafted (November).

DRAFT SEASON

Royce Lewis (2017): Lewis signed quickly and the Twins sent him to Ft. Myers where he began his professional career in the GCL. He homered in his first at-bat. He played 36 games there and hit .271/.390/.414 (.803). We were then surprised that he was sent to Low-A Cedar Rapids (Midwest League) where he played in 18 games and hit .296/.363/.394 (.757).

Carlos Correa (2012): After signing, the Astros sent Correa to the GCL. He played in 39 games and hit .232/.270/.355 (.625) before ending that season with 11 games in the Appalachian League.

Francisco Lindor (2011): Lindor signed a bit later and his pro career began with just five games in the New York/Penn League.

FIRST FULL SEASON

Royce Lewis (2018): Lewis returned to Cedar Rapids to start the season. He played in 75 games for the Kernels and hit .315/.368/.485 (.853). About a month ago, he was promoted to High-A Ft. Myers where he has now hit .329/.418/.506 (.924) after his big game last night. Combined, he has 29 doubles and 12 home runs. Lewis turned 19 in early June.

Carlos Correa (2013): The Astros had Correa begin his first full professional season in the Midwest League with Quad Cities. He spent the full season with the Bandits where he hit .320/.405/.467 (.872) in 117 games. He hit 33 doubles, three triples and nine homers. Correa played the whole season at age 18.

Francisco Lindor (2012): Cleveland had Lindor start his first season in the Midwest League as well with Lake County. He played 122 games for the Captains and hit .257/.352/.355 (.707). He hit 24 doubles, three triples and six home runs. He spent the full season at age 18.

SECOND FULL SEASON

Royce Lewis (2019): To be determined. Lewis will turn 20 in early June.

Carlos Correa (2014): Correa was 19 years old throughout his second full season. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a full season. In mid-June, Correa’s season came to an end when he broke his fibula and missed the rest of the year. He played well to that point, hitting .325/.416/.510 (.926) in just 62 games at High-A Lancaster in the California League. He hit 16 doubles, six triples and six home runs in his partial season. He turned 19 after the season.

Francisco Lindor (2013): Lindor began his second full season at High-A Carolina of the Carolina League. In 83 games, he hit .306/.373/.410 (.783). He moved up to AA Akron for his final 21 games of the season. Smaller sample, but he hit .289/.407/.395 (.801). Combined, Lindor hit 22 doubles, seven triples and two home runs. He turned 19 after the season.

THIRD FULL SEASON

Royce Lewis (2020): To be determined. He will turn 21 years old in early June.

Carlos Correa (2015): Correa successfully rehabbed his broken leg and was invited to big league spring training. He began the season at AA where he hit .385/.459/.726 (1.185) in 29 games before being pushed forward to AAA. He spent less time in AAA, just 24 games, and hit .276/.345/.449 (.794). Between AA and AAA, he hit 21 doubles, three triples and ten homers. He was called up to the Astros and made his MLB debut on June 8, 2015 (age 20 years, 259 days). Despite playing just 99 games with the Astros, he won the American League Rookie of the Year after hitting .279 with 21 doubles, a triple and 22 home runs. He turned 21 late in the MLB season.

Francisco Lindor (2014): Lindor began the 2014 season where he ended the 2013 season, at AA. In 88 games, he hit .278/.352/.389 (.741). He ended the season with 38 games at AAA Columbus and hit .273/.307/.388 (.695). Combined, he hit 16 doubles, four triples and 11 home runs. He turned 21 a month after the season completed.

FOURTH FULL SEASON

Royce Lewis (2021): To be determined. He will turn 22 years old in early June.

Carlos Correa (2016): Correa’s first full season with the Astros. As a 21-year-old, he played in 153 games and hit .274 with 36 doubles, 20 homers and 96 RBI.

Francisco Lindor (2015): Lindor began his 2015 at AAA. He played 59 games there and hit .284/.350/.402 (.752) with 11 doubles, five triples and two home runs. Six days after Correa, he was called up and made his MLB debut on June 14, 2015 (age 21 years, 212 days). In 99 games for Cleveland, Lindor hit .313/.353/.482 (.835) with 22 doubles, four triples and 12 home runs. He finished runner up to Correa for Rookie of the Year.

Correa and Lindor have had terrific starts to their careers. They are both in their fourth season in the big leagues now and have established themselves as stars. Correa won that 2015 Rookie of the Year award. He was an All-Star in 2017 and then helped lead the Astros to a World Series title. Lindor has been a three-time All-Star, and won both a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards. He led Cleveland to the World Series in 2016 when they fell in a tough Game 7 to the Cubs.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Carlos Correa made his MLB debut three years after being drafted, almost to the date. It was in his third full season as a professional. It was especially aggressive considering he missed half of a season with a broken leg. Francisco Lindor debuted almost exactly four years after her was drafted out of high school. It was halfway through his fourth full season.

Obviously Royce Lewis’s debut will not be based on Correa and Lindor’s timeline. It will be based on his progress at each level and the Twins front office’s plan for his arrival, and what they want him to accomplish at least stop along the way.

However, here are some scenarios:
  • Correa debuted three months before his 21st birthday. For Lewis, that would be Opening Day 2020.
  • Correa debuted approximately three years after his draft day. For Lewis, that would mean mid-June 2020.
  • Lindor debuted about four months before he turned 22 years old. For Lewis, that would mean Opening Day 2021.
  • Lindor debuted almost exactly four years after he was drafted. For Lewis, that would mean mid-June 2021.
That’s a pretty big range for when we could see Royce Lewis debut in the big leagues. And again, I have to reiterate that prospect and player development is not necessarily linear. Players develop at different rates. That’s important to remember and remind yourself before you get to this next paragraph.

Lewis is in his first full professional season. I’m guessing you noticed that both Lindor and Correa spent their entire first full season in the Midwest League. By season’s end, Lewis will have about 50 games in the Florida State League. We could say the Lewis is about a half-season ahead of Correa and Lindor were at the same stage. Additionally, I’m sure you noticed that the power numbers that Lewis has displayed surpass the power numbers shown by Correa and Lindor. Those two didn’t show much power until they got to the big leagues. There is reason for excitement.

But you’ll notice that Cleveland was a lot more patient with Lindor than Houston was with Correa, especially when you consider that he missed about half a year.

If you want my opinion, I think there is an outside chance, but a chance nonetheless, that Twins fans could see Royce Lewis at Target Field late in the 2019 season. I fully expect the Twins to invite Lewis to big league spring training next year, and I expect that he will make an impression on the coaches. In addition to Lewis’s development offensively and defensively, a call up in 2019 may depend as much on the Twins season and playoff competitiveness.

AGGRESSIVE: July 2019 is very aggressive. Lewis will have just turned 20 and could help the Twins down the stretch.

REALISTIC: June 2020 is probably the most realistic timeline for Lewis.

PATIENT: June 2021 is a patient approach, especially considering how quickly the Twins have moved Lewis to this point, but Francisco Lindor has turned out quite good despite a slower approach.

It is a question I get often. I try to answer in a realistic manner, but I did want to dig into the development timeline of two great young shortstops, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa. While they are just two data points, it gives us something to compare to, something that could be achievable.


So now it’s your turn? When do you think Royce Lewis will be able to make his MLB debut? What do you think the determining factors should be for his promotion?

  • Yoke, glunn, Mike Frasier Law and 13 others like this

  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

41 Comments

Photo
bluechipper
Aug 07 2018 12:41 PM

Not sure I'd call Houston impatient wtih Correia. The guy destroyed the high minors.
 
Lewis has been really similar to Correia thus far, but to be fair, Correia turned it up substantially in both his second and third full seasons... Hopefully Lewis can do the same, but I certainly wouldn't be pinning my hopes on the kid breaking a .900 OPS in the high minors. That's not fair to Lewis. 
 
Lindor, strangely enough, was better in the majors than he ever was in the minors.

Jose Ramirez has been a way better hitter in the majors too. I wonder what Cleveland knows about development that the Twins don't.
    • diehardtwinsfan and SF Twins Fan like this

So lots of hope and squinting was needed to picture 2017 Platinum Glove Winner Byron Buxton being a young performer when he put up a 944 OPS with double-digit everything in 2013.
 
I remember the fanfare being pretty much the same.
 
Sure there is excitement, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Han Joelo, on 07 Aug 2018 - 09:00 AM, said:
Lewis--and Kiriloff--feel different than the last two highly rated prospects the Twins had.Less hope and squinting is needed to picture these guys in the majors as young--performing--players.

 
You can interpret how much hoping and squinting is involved when I say "less" is needed with Lewis and Kiriloff than was needed with Sano and Buxton.  Actually, I'll just tell you.  Squinting:  we're talking microns here, maybe 50-60 or thereabouts.  Hope:  measured in "pangs,"  I'd say the difference is only a pang or two.  The point being both sets of players engender hope, which is a good thing, maybe the best thing; and if you squint to some degree, you can actually, possible make out the silhouette of a unicorn.  Anyway, just remember Admiral Poopooer Tapthebrakes from the Empire Strikes Back:

https://youtu.be/TvcYjQCJ8_o

    • Monkeypaws, slash129 and MN_ExPat like this

If the Twins truly are in a rebuilding mode, they have to look at WHEN they want to be competitive...is it 2020 or 2021 or 2022. You take into consideration the logical advancement of all your current priospects. You take into considertion that they may have one-two seasons of average baseball before they start to take off. Do you do it in 2019 fer sure, when losing won't matter and the quest for a high draft choice is the main target, with players getting on-field experience.

But on the flip side, they use up service time and have the potential to become a free agent that much earlier, especially when you are dealing with guys 20-21-22 and you make them multi-millionaires with lots of prime years. Assuming that they do play well and don't just disappear into the mist of springtime.

 

I would like to see Royce get a September callup next season, starting his 40-man roster time perhaps a bit early. I would like to see him in spring training challenging for a job, but maybe NOT taking it untli mid-season 2020.

 

But then, if that was my plan, I would also be pushing Nick Gordon to get experience the remainder of this yer and to use next season as an opportunity to see if he is a longterm guy somewhere on the field.

 

Kriloff, Lewis, Rooker are all guys I think we can fast trak. Also Graterol would be a pitcher I would do the same.

    • MN_ExPat likes this
Photo
tarheeltwinsfan
Aug 07 2018 01:11 PM

Great offensive comparisons, Seth. How do the three young shortstops compare at arguably the most important defensive position on the field?

    • SF Twins Fan likes this
Photo
JaleelWhite FanClub
Aug 07 2018 01:26 PM

As several posters have noted, the amazing thing with both Lindor and Correa is how both showed no drop in production when they hit the majors. Lindor has actually had better numbers in the majors then he did in the minors.

 

Contrast that to what Twins fans have seen recently from their own stud prospects. Buxton, who along with Correa was always 1A or 1B on prospect lists, has never approached his minors numbers except for the last two months last season. He has morphed into a .200 hitter with almost no power. Sano has basically lost his way and has become a historically-significant strikeout machine at the plate.

 

By the time Lewis debuts with the Twins, I'm think most fans will respond with tempered excitement given these two cases. It's fun to hope for our own Lindor or Correa, but I think we'd be happy with a debut anywhere better than Buxton's or Sano's. 

    • Han Joelo likes this

 

Anyway, just remember Admiral Poopooer Tapthebrakes from the Empire Strikes Back:

https://youtu.be/TvcYjQCJ8_o

 

Admiral Poopooer Tapthebrakes only exists to offset Lloyd Christmas.

 

    • Han Joelo and 70charger like this

 

People have to struggle in order to be successful. Right now, they look like the next great thing but many, many players have in the single A levels. It seems that AA is the true proving ground.

 

I know, nobody knows,

Where it comes and where it goes.

I know, it's everybody's sin

You got to lose to know how to win.

 

- Steven Tyler (Boston prospect of the very early 70's; went on to a HOF career)

Little know fact:the original lyric included the phrase "development is not linear"...but he couldn't get that lyric to work with the riff.

 

I'd say Lewis's arrival will depend, in part, on how his development as SS goes...as it's possible his bat is ready before his glove is, in which case the CF/OF situation comes into play.

Nevertheless, my guess is June 2020.

    • MN_ExPat likes this

A lot will depend if Paul Molitor is manager still.If he is- when Lewis is called up- he will sit on the bench, get a token start or two- then sent back down- only to be brought up later- for a month playing sporadically then sent down again- with his timing and confidence shot- pushing back his progression a year or two.

 

I hate being a realist at times:(

QQ:

 

What if Buxton doesn't hit again next year.....do you move Lewis to CF?

 

does that answer change if Gordon turns it on next year, and Buxton isn't hitting?

    • Tomj14 likes this
Photo
tarheeltwinsfan
Aug 08 2018 06:43 AM

 

Great offensive comparisons, Seth. How do the three young shortstops compare at arguably the most important defensive position on the field?

I left the word "defensively" out of my post. My bad. How do they compare defensively? Arm strength? Accuracy in throwing? Agility? Speed? Turning the double play? Probability of remaining at SS for 10 years? SS, like CF,is such a key to a team's defense, which makes bad pitching better and good pitching great.

Jose Ramirez has been a way better hitter in the majors too. I wonder what Cleveland knows about development that the Twins don't.

Ramirez is hugely talented. He was added to their 40-man and got a brief taste of the majors at age 20. He split his seasons in majors and AAA at both 21 and 22, and did better in the minors than in the majors in those years. He was then in the majors to stay at age 23, and his stats have continued to get better each season.

 

They've done a great job of developing him and he's done a great job of learning. But I see nothing anomalous about his progression. He's done better in the majors than in the minors because he was so good that he reached the majors at 20, before he was anywhere close to a finished product. In particular, his power has come in, as happens often with prospects in their early 20s.

    • 70charger, bluechipper and MN_ExPat like this
Has anyone seen reports on his fielding? Some were saying he wouldn’t stick at SS. That would obviously play into this

As others have stated, players progress and develop differently. It would be foolish to expect every player to have the same trajectory. And in the case of a special talent like Lewis, it would be counterproductive to hesitate to promote him because of his age or relative lack of inexperience. Some players just have the extra special something. And if that's the case, I hope the Twins are unusually aggressive and promote players like Lewis and Kiriloff faster than usual. No, I don't want them to be taking a lot of unnecessary risks, but I think it's time that they DO take a few chances with this impressive talent we have and see how they perform at higher levels. .

Photo
ShouldaCouldaWoulda
Aug 08 2018 09:47 AM

 

Seth, thanks for the comparison article!!! Nice read!Plus it gives us hope!!!!!

 

Now how about a similar article for Alex Kirilloff? :)

...to Juan Soto;)

 

QQ:

 

What if Buxton doesn't hit again next year.....do you move Lewis to CF?

 

does that answer change if Gordon turns it on next year, and Buxton isn't hitting?

(channeling my inner Chief)....

 

Yes.

 

Good questions.My absolute guess would be that they will leave Lewis at SS...almost no matter what...in the minors.My speculative theory being that the cream of the athletic crop, such as Lewis, can almost immediately transition from SS to CF...but not the other way around.And that when the bat is deemed ready, if SS is not an issue with the major league club, but CF is an issue...that they would not hesitate to make that move.

 

Said a different way....keep the development focused on SS.Then when the bat is ready,...and or you get desperate because everyone else is hurt or failing...you (theoretically) would have both defensive options open.

 

All we're asking is that Lewis be like Robin Yount.

(channeling my inner Chief)....

Yes.

Good questions. My absolute guess would be that they will leave Lewis at SS...almost no matter what...in the minors. My speculative theory being that the cream of the athletic crop, such as Lewis, can almost immediately transition from SS to CF...but not the other way around. And that when the bat is deemed ready, if SS is not an issue with the major league club, but CF is an issue...that they would not hesitate to make that move.

Said a different way....keep the development focused on SS. Then when the bat is ready,...and or you get desperate because everyone else is hurt or failing...you (theoretically) would have both defensive options open.

All we're asking is that Lewis be like Robin Yount.


Agreed!

Similar Articles


by Steve Lein , 24 Jul 2020
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 07 Jul 2020
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 29 Jun 2020
Photo


by Cody Christie , 29 Jun 2020
Photo


by Cody Christie , 23 Jun 2020
Photo