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Greene Impresses Twins Brass

Friday night didn't only signify the first time a Twins club started a season 4-0 since 1987. It also signified the first time CBO Derek Falvey got to see high school prep pitching phenom Hunter Greene in person.

Falvey was one of five people representing the Twins organization, which also included scouting director Sean Johnson.
Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
According to various reports, Greene sat at 98-99 with his fastball. Some radar guns even flashed triple digits. Throughout his 91-pitch, 13-strikeout, complete-game outing, his fastball never dipped below 95. Greene also flashed a devastating slider.

You can see Green throw one pitch, with the Twins crew in the background below:



Greene has become the darling of the draft. He's helped the poor by doing a sock drive, collecting socks in exchange for autographed cards. (And I missed the deadline... but he still sent the cards.) He's gone through hard family times as his younger sister dealt with leukemia. He's shown his personality through his social media.

On the field, he's proven to be, perhaps, the most unique prep right-handed pitcher in recent memory (or ever?) and strives to make history as the first ever high school right handed pitcher to go first overall. He's also a pretty darned good shortstop.

In a draft that doesn't include any top notch college stars, Greene continues to shine brightly and is becoming a cult hero in Twins Territory.

---

Check back for updates.

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71 Comments

Definitely not a huge fan of Greene with the 1-1 pick. Even KLaw who likes the guy, has this to say about his stuff (from his piece yesterday here).Emphasis mine.

 

Greene's fastball doesn't have much life, but it's very easy. He threw two changeups, both 89 mph, one in the dirt and one pretty good, especially because he maintained his arm speed.

The biggest question mark within Greene's present arsenal is his breaking ball. He's throwing both a curveball and slider now and they run into each other. On Friday night you could see how he was raising his arm to get some forced angle on the curveball, but I think he's going to end up a slider guy

 

So. What do we have here:A guy who can throw hard but his FB does not have much life (Tonkin anyone?), whose change up is a work in progress with only 6-10 mph differential from his FB, and the biggest questionmark is his breaking ball because he does not know what to do with it.

 

And gets small catholic High School kids,none of whom are even on the radar for being half way decent, out with 100 mph because they cannot catch up to his fastball, and is a good Shortstop who hits against small catholic High School pitchers, none of whom are even on the radar for being half way decent,and he is a "great story".

 

A great story might be, but a good 1st overall pick, he ain't.Would you pick a guy with Tonkin potential (maybe if he gets a second pitch) 1-1?I wouldn't.Sorry.No matter how good a story he is and no matter how much the ones who get paid by the word they write, write about him...

 

    • Dr. Evil likes this
I fail to see how his ability will change. Definitely locked into this.
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diehardtwinsfan
Apr 10 2017 05:27 PM

 

I would challenge anyone to find statistical comparisons to Greene that went in the top 3 picks. I have spot checked a few recent picks and every one outperformed Greene in high school. Eg. Nick Gordon batted 1.483 his senior year. Greene batted 1.250 last year, but is only at .971 so far in 2017. Justin Upton, who was a SS in high school, batted .508 with 12 homers his senior year. Greene is at .306 with 3 homers through a half season. Andrew McCutchen batted .709 with 16 homers. Colby Rasmus batted .484 with 24 homers.

 

Similar story on the mound- Greene has 43 Ks in 28 IP(106 BF, 40.6%, 13.8 K/9).

By comparison, Kershaw struckout 139 in 64 IP (19.5 K/9). porcello struckout 112 in 71 IP (14.8 K/9). Odorizzi sruckout 146 in 89.2 innings (14.7 k/9). The highest of these picks was Kershaw at 7. Porcello was 27th and Odorizzi was 32nd. Further, a few of these guys put up better numbers at the plate too, while attending schools 2-3 times as large in attendance. Suggesting they faced tougher competition.

 

I believe too much of Greene's value is being placed in projection. High school results aren't the be all end all but when they stray to far from comps that should be a red flag that perhaps his stock is in bubble territory.

 

I know it is stat lines, but this really does say a lot.If he has ML stuff, he should be destroying high schoolers better than he is.It tells me that even if he's successful, don't expect him up in 3 years.

 

That would be said, it would be interesting to see more than a few guys here.I'd love to see HS stats of guys like Stewart, various big named failed pitching prospects, and a few under the radar guys that made it.... would be fine to look at.

I can't remember if it's in this thread or a ba chat but the idea that Greene is only throwing to little catholic boys is stupid. He's pitching against opponents that are going to major baseball colleges. (Buxton and Trout both faced inferior HS competition as well.)

 

Jonathan Mayo noted that Greene has dominated in the summer showcase circuits, ""I've been going to the Area Code Games forever and I like to tell people the best pitcher I've seen there has been Josh Beckett," the NL scouting director said. "I think Greene went past him.""

 

There are valid reasons to not draft Greene but the caliber of his opponents is not one of them.

 

    • beckmt, Bob Sacamento and nytwinsfan like this
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Willihammer
Apr 10 2017 08:45 PM

 

I can't remember if it's in this thread or a ba chat but the idea that Greene is only throwing to little catholic boys is stupid. He's pitching against opponents that are going to major baseball colleges. (Buxton and Trout both faced inferior HS competition as well.)

 

Jonathan Mayo noted that Greene has dominated in the summer showcase circuits, ""I've been going to the Area Code Games forever and I like to tell people the best pitcher I've seen there has been Josh Beckett," the NL scouting director said. "I think Greene went past him.""

 

There are valid reasons to not draft Greene but the caliber of his opponents is not one of them.

I thought Greene was still playing his high school schedule. Have the area code game started already?

I find it pretty humorous that people are bagging on an upper 90-100 mph throwing 17 year old with Greene's physique and make-up because of the quality of his secondary pitches.

 

I thought Greene was still playing his high school schedule. Have the area code game started already?

Last year.

 

http://www.baseballa...Tv7qomElkd4w.97

    • glunn likes this

#1 in my books. Take him first please. He can pitch and if that doesn't work out he's graded well as a SS. According to John sickles

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Willihammer
Apr 11 2017 07:41 AM

 

Alright so to be clear, I have speculated that he's facing below average competition based on his high school attendance. I don't know that to be true. But for certain he is facing regular old high school kids, currently, not college bound all stars. He won't face them until August nope he'll be drafted.

By the way do you know if cumulative individual stats exist for the Area Code Games? I haven't been able to find any.

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Jeremy Nygaard
Apr 11 2017 07:57 AM

 

Is it really a slider? I've heard in other places it is a curveball. What gives?  Does he have both?

 

see, e.g., http://www.minorleag...oaks-california

 

He throws both right now... but they kind of run into each other and get slurvy. His fastball is fast, but doesn't have a lot of movement right now either. He's a raw 17 year old that has a very, very high ceiling.

 

Definitely not a huge fan of Greene with the 1-1 pick. Even KLaw who likes the guy, has this to say about his stuff (from his piece yesterday here).Emphasis mine.

 

Greene's fastball doesn't have much life, but it's very easy. He threw two changeups, both 89 mph, one in the dirt and one pretty good, especially because he maintained his arm speed.

The biggest question mark within Greene's present arsenal is his breaking ball. He's throwing both a curveball and slider now and they run into each other. On Friday night you could see how he was raising his arm to get some forced angle on the curveball, but I think he's going to end up a slider guy

 

So. What do we have here:A guy who can throw hard but his FB does not have much life (Tonkin anyone?), whose change up is a work in progress with only 6-10 mph differential from his FB, and the biggest questionmark is his breaking ball because he does not know what to do with it.

 

And gets small catholic High School kids,none of whom are even on the radar for being half way decent, out with 100 mph because they cannot catch up to his fastball, and is a good Shortstop who hits against small catholic High School pitchers, none of whom are even on the radar for being half way decent,and he is a "great story".

 

A great story might be, but a good 1st overall pick, he ain't.Would you pick a guy with Tonkin potential (maybe if he gets a second pitch) 1-1?I wouldn't.Sorry.No matter how good a story he is and no matter how much the ones who get paid by the word they write, write about him...

 

You left off the part where KLAW would take him 1:1....

    • glunn and gunnarthor like this

Has this been posted yet?

 

"Minnesota Twins considering Louisville lefty Brendan McKay along with Hunter Greene"

 

http://www.twincitie...-hunter-greene/

 

Here's some stats for McKay:

http://www.thebaseba...P=brendan-mckay

 

http://www.gocards.c...x?path=baseball

    • gunnarthor likes this

 

You left off the part where KLAW would take him 1:1....

 

Sure.He said that, but he has no skin in the game.He is not the Twins and does not care about who the Twins will take, or how the Twins will do. 

 

He is one of those guys who get paid by the word, and by saying that, it makes it a better story.

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Jeremy Nygaard
Apr 11 2017 08:34 AM

 

Bonus demands are going to complicate this a bit, too.  If Preller is going to be the dick that we all know he can be, the Twins won't get any savings out of the first pick and might have to go overslot for Greene.  If a college player comes at a discount, they might take that.

 

I don't know how much the Padres can really impact the Twins selection. Sure, they could get creative and have ~$8 million available to force the Twins and Reds hands... but that's a slippery slope for an agency to take, especially when that agency has had a good working relationship with the Twins. 

 

End of the day, the Twins have money. Greene wants it.

 

Sure.He said that, but he has no skin in the game.He is not the Twins and does not care about who the Twins will take, or how the Twins will do. 

 

He is one of those guys who get paid by the word, and by saying that, it makes it a better story.

 

You are stating he is not stating his honest opinion, but is trying to sell stories? Wow. That's. Wow. Pathetic claim to make with no evidence at all, frankly.

    • gunnarthor and 70charger like this

 

You are stating he is not stating his honest opinion, but is trying to sell stories? Wow. That's. Wow. Pathetic claim to make with no evidence at all, frankly.

 

Did you see what he wrote about his stuff?(straight fastball, no change up, mixed up with breaking stuff)The only pathetic thing here is him saying that despite that he will take him 1-1.The data he presented does not justify his conclusion.

 

Alright so to be clear, I have speculated that he's facing below average competition based on his high school attendance. I don't know that to be true. But for certain he is facing regular old high school kids, currently, not college bound all stars. He won't face them until August nope he'll be drafted.

By the way do you know if cumulative individual stats exist for the Area Code Games? I haven't been able to find any.

I haven't seen any stats for the area code games but Greene was the MVP, so he did ok.  But scouts have seen him at other summer events, not just that one.  And, again, I'm not sure it's fair to say he's facing regular old high school kids.  He was playing at the Compton urban academy for a while (ala Aaron Hicks) and I would assume that he's playing in an advanced HS pitching league.  I mean, I played regular high school football but I sure wasn't playing against Cretin Derham Hall.  I assume most top HS players - in most sports - play at that level of competition.  Just googled his last game and the opposing pitcher - 16 years old - is already committed to Cal-Northridge, a baseball powerhouse.

    • beckmt and Vanimal46 like this

 

He throws both right now... but they kind of run into each other and get slurvy. His fastball is fast, but doesn't have a lot of movement right now either. He's a raw 17 year old that has a very, very high ceiling.

Yes, after I posted that I read elsewhere (Keith Law I think) that he throws both and sometimes they run into each other. Thank you for responding though Jeremy. Going to be a tough call between Greene and McKay (assuming nothing changes, which it almost certainly will).Does McKay have a decent chance to be a number 2 starter? I've heard he is unlikely to be an Ace.

 

Did you see what he wrote about his stuff?(straight fastball, no change up, mixed up with breaking stuff)The only pathetic thing here is him saying that despite that he will take him 1-1.The data he presented does not justify his conclusion.

 

I read all his stuff.

 

A. You accused him of trying to sell stories, by not being honest. I don't believe that.

B; I think reading 1-2 paragraphs doesn't give you the full glimpse into his thought process. I also think concluding that he doesn't like his stuff ignores his talk about velocity, age, raw ability, and athleticism completely. You chose the parts of his writing that backed your conclusion. You also are drawing a conclusion based on those sentences, as if those are all the thoughts he has on the 17 yo that throws upper 90s.

 

Edited by glunn

Moderator note -- please tone down the personal squabbling.

18? The "kid" looks to be closer to 30. You sure he didn't sneak over here from Cuba? You know, the country that can't keep track of birthdates?

18? The "kid" looks to be closer to 30. You sure he didn't sneak over here from Cuba? You know, the country that can't keep track of birthdates?


You can fake your age, but you can't fake 100 mph

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