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Target Field - music between pitches

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:45 AM
It’s not just the Pirates’ announcers who think it’s awful. It’s awful. They need to stop it. I’m mostly ok with the MLB The Show crow...
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Fun With Numbers - 2020 Season

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 07:14 AM
I’m glad to see Ex-Twins in 2020 thread is back up and running. This is also one of my favorite threads over the last 5 years. The Twins...
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Royce Lewis on YouTube

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 10:54 PM
Twins top prospect Royce Lewis started his own YouTube page since the quarantine started. He's posted several entries. Some are short. So...
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Marlins: 14 positive Covid cases, home opener cancelled...

Other Baseball Yesterday, 10:44 PM
Before the season started, I was wondering about what would happen if the virus started spreading like wildfire in a clubhouse. Well here...
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2020 Twins Transactions

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:54 PM
There haven't been many yet, but I'll start this today...   The Twins just announced that Zack Littell (hamstring) has been placed o...
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Maybe the Twins Should Go All in On Anthony Rendon

Over the offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have suggested that the Minnesota Twins will be focused on impact pitching. That’s a great place to start. Their rotation needs significant additions to compete in a sport that just had two elite staffs square off in the World Series. What if they can’t assemble something that rivals an elite top three though? Does it make sense for them to further bolster an already strong lineup? How about doing so with superstar World Series champion Anthony Rendon.
Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Obviously, this all hinges on how the organization views the immediate future of Miguel Sano. He’s the current starter at the hot corner and is coming off a .923 OPS during his age-26 season. The Dominican native is under team control for each of the next two seasons, and the expectation would be that his salary remains under $10 million before hitting the open market. Rocco Baldelli has an opening at first base if the club decides to non-tender C.J. Cron, and it’s always been assumed that Sano would be better off switching sides on the diamond.

Assume Miguel moves and vacates the hot corner, the timing may never be better. Rendon will play 2020 as a 30-year-old and is coming off an MVP caliber season. He posted a 1.010 OPS and launched a career high 34 home runs. Even with some regression, Rendon hasn’t posted an OPS below .900 since 2016. He’s consistently been a 6 WAR player and generates production through both offensive and defensive excellence.

In his final year of arbitration Rendon made $18.8 million for the Nationals. Fangraphs has valued his production as being worth roughly $50 million annually since 2016, and he hasn’t been worth less than $34 million since 2015. The open market isn’t going to pay him that handsomely but expecting a 5-7 year deal that checks in between $25-30 million on a yearly basis seems more than doable. Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado would be the only third basemen paid above Rendon, and that seems like a pretty fair place for him to slot into the leaderboard.

The downside to this argument is that Minnesota should be throwing a good deal of their cash at arms. If we assume they have something like $70 million to spend, chopping that almost in half by inking a position player isn’t a great use of funds. However, there’re only so many pitchers on the open market worthy of the big-time payday. Should Minnesota miss on Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, I’d expect only Zack Wheeler to surpass the $20 million mark. That means the Twins could sign a very good arm and still accommodate a contract enticing to Rendon.

By no means should the assumption or expectation be that the front office prioritizes a third basemen. Even if there’s a desire to move Sano defensively, other more economical options exist. If the goal is to raise the overall talent level to the highest possible extent though, adding a superstar like Rendon certainly bridges the gap between a superstar pitcher and just a middle of the rotation arm.

It’s hard to project the Twins as a serious player any time we’re talking about the best player on the market types, but we’ve entered the territory where the organization is ready to compete and do so at a World Series worthy level.

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64 Comments

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birdwatcher
Nov 02 2019 08:01 AM

 

I'd give up all the top prospects the Twins have for a World Series Championship.

 

Understandable, but it doesn't work that way, right?

 

So, giving up Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Larnach for whatever they would fetch might...MIGHT...convince the oddsmakers to make the team what, 3/1 favorites?

 

Houston kept Correa and Bregman.

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terrydactyls1947
Nov 02 2019 08:10 AM
Sign Tendon!!! It's always better to win 14-7 than to win 12-7. And then still lose in the playoffs because the opponents have superior pitching.
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terrydactyls1947
Nov 02 2019 08:12 AM

I'd give up all the top prospects the Twins have for a World Series Championship.


And then another decade of futility and frustration, and complaining by Twins Daily posters about the stupid front office.
    • DocBauer likes this
I thought this was gong to be about Anthony LaPanta. I mean... Totino Grace kid, great smile, great hair; can't go wrong. Twins should absolutely go all in on that guy.

 

To clarify, I'm entertained with how often people ignore the possibility that a major signing they want may not result in that WS banner. The whole "if we sign Cole, then we will win the WS" simplicity.

 

I'll grant that little gets said here on TD about the risk to the organization of not doing enough. Ryan got fired because he didn't do enough. Even Jim Pohlad implied that Ryan didn't spend enough. It wasn't lost on Falvey or Jim Pohlad that going from 78 to 101 made turnstiles spin faster. But you're right we don't talk much about not signing players from the standpoint of the organizational risk of lost revenues. That's a harder calculation for us to make and discuss.

first para, very true. Padres overspent by a TON for a couple of FA's last year and instead of improving, they actually got worse. They will live to regret giving Machado such a ridiculous contract. After the ASG, he totally lost interest and the results bear this out.

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ChrisKnutson
Nov 03 2019 09:06 PM
Why complicate things with a Rendon signing? Our main priority should be our entire pitching staff, especially the rotation. If FO really wants to improve a home run record setting lineup, perhaps they should look into making a deal with Cleveland for Carlos Santana since we got an opening at 1B.

first para, very true. Padres overspent by a TON for a couple of FA's last year and instead of improving, they actually got worse. They will live to regret giving Machado such a ridiculous contract. After the ASG, he totally lost interest and the results bear this out.


Machado is signed for a lot of years. The Padres went young last year. I really don't get this post

 

Understandable, but it doesn't work that way, right?

 

So, giving up Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Larnach for whatever they would fetch might...MIGHT...convince the oddsmakers to make the team what, 3/1 favorites?

 

Houston kept Correa and Bregman.

To be fair Correa had a WAR of 4.3 at age 20 in the majors and Bergman 1.8 at 22. Which could happen with Lewis (not likely) and Alex (very possible) this year and if it does it goes to show they need to spend on pitching ASAP.

 

Machado is signed for a lot of years. The Padres went young last year. I really don't get this post

what exactly don't you get? Machado got a contract the Padres will never fully benefit from. Their signings I 'm pretty sure were not to basically have a rebuilding 2019 season. Machado has talent, but he didn't contribute much. Remains to be seen how he does in the future.

 

Machado is signed for a lot of years. The Padres went young last year. I really don't get this post

So to be fair, I did a bit more reading up on how San Diego and Machado himself viewed his season. And actually Padres were a teeny touch better this year than last. Still, like Baltimore's slight improvement..thats irrelevant.

Manny hated his season. One beat writer did his best to spin it all positively, while admitting it wasn't Manny's best season. I don't blame him for that...Padres are spending $300 mil. Another assessment was he wasn't great but its only one year so they expect better. Also the team's farm is strong and they expect to contend in 2020. Guess we'll be watching!

Donaldson only for a year after a physical. That calf will be a continuous concern.

No....we need not over complicate things....
 
The priorities are:
1. Playoff worthy starting pitching
2. Playoff worthy starting pitching
 
...and wait...what am I forgetting....oh yeah!
 
3. Playoff worthy starting pitching


I think I'm on your side mostly...but the Twins do need a first baseman. Here's my plan: http://twinsdaily.co...innesota-twins/

Telis has been re-signed and he had an excellent season in Rochester. He should be given a decent look in ST. If not, I would welcome him back to AAA with open arms.

I'm sold.

 

As long as we end up with Sano in RF.


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