Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Article: Do The Twins Need A Proven Closer?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:02 PM
Last week, the Minnesota Twins announced that they would not be activating the contract option for Glen Perkins, making him a free agent....
Full topic ›

Potential Free Agent Idea

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:04 PM
How about Ichiro to platoon with Kepler?   I know he's left handed, but he hits lefties better than righties. Wouldn't need much pla...
Full topic ›

T-Wolves Regular Season Thread

Minnesota Timberwolves Talk Today, 05:04 PM
Let's get this mother started.    
Full topic ›

Go get Verlander

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:48 PM
http://www.espn.com/...astros-audition   Best possible combination of help in 2017 and help in the next couple years, right where th...
Full topic ›

Twins to hire John Manuel

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 04:05 PM
Didn't see that coming.
Full topic ›

Knock. Knock. Silence.

Opportunity almost always chooses to knock when you’re stuck on the phone talking to tech support. She does not accommodate your schedule. You play on hers, or you don’t play. This offseason, the Twins will face that reality, because they have a small window to accomplish something they’ve been waiting to do for years.

This offseason is the single best – and maybe only – chance to lock up three of the Twins most important players to long-term deals that keep them in Minnesota beyond their initial free agent years. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are all in the sweet spot to negotiate a long-term deal.
Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
I understand this is not terribly convenient, which brings us back to Opportunity. You may feel like it’s too early. You may not trust Sano’s health. You may not trust Rosario’s plate discipline. You may not trust Buxton’s batting average. You may want to focus on a lot of other issues, like how to fix the pitching staff or who is going to fill the spots on the coaching staff. I mean, do we really need to decide this right now?

Opportunity recognizes this is hard. She also does not care. She must leave after this offseason and here is why.

All three of these players have over two years and under three years of major league service time. Which means this is the last year they’ll be making between $550,000 and $600,000. That’s a lot of money, but it isn’t “lifetime security” money. So if something happens – a concussion, a blown-up knee or suddenly they just can’t hit – they are left to their own devices for the rest of their careers.

If the Twins want to wait until next year, the players and their agents might still be willing to listen, but at this time next year they’ll each be in line for a guaranteed salary of $3M-$5M. That is at least close to “lifetime security” money. And they get it whether they negotiate a long-term deal or not. So if you want to lock them up – either because you want to save money or because you want to guarantee they stick around for some free agent years – now is the best time.

At a high level, that means making a sizable commitment. Each deal will likely require five guaranteed years and at least $28M, something like $1M/$3M/$5.5M/$8M/$10.5M. That’s the starting point. In this year’s TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook (it’s coming SOON), we’ll give you a chance to craft a more precise and fair offer for each of them, and also give you a handful of comparable recent deals to help you out. In the meantime, here are some questions to ask yourself and debate in the comments below, provided you have registered:
  • Are you comfortable signing each player to a long-term deal?
  • Which players are your priority if you can only sign one or two?
  • How many years of team options do you want after the guaranteed money? It might be easier to tack three years onto the end for Buxton (who would still only be 31 years old when he finishes the deal) than Rosario (who would be 33 years old, and might want to hit the free agency a little sooner).
Or are you uncomfortable with the whole idea? If so, Opportunity understands, but will you excuse her? She has other stops to make. Best of luck….

  • Cory Engelhardt, Oldgoat_MN, ToddlerHarmon and 1 other like this

  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

77 Comments

I would try to sign Rosario first.5 yr deal. With guys like, Rooker, Wade, Kiriloff and Baddoo working their way up I don't see any need to go any longer than that. That doesn't mean I don't think Rosario isn't going to be special. He might turn out to be the best of the three.The Twins have a tradition of signing the guy they believe they can build the franchise around to a lucrative long term deal. Like with Puckett ,Knoblauch & Mauer. This is where I struggle. Should it be Sano. Or Buxton. Or Both? I'd like to see both signed for 7+ years. I'd even go 10 years on Buxton. But will both be realistic for the Twins? Probably not. If I have to choose, I'd go with Buxton. I'm like some others and am not sure Sano will be motivated to stay in shape if he gets a huge deal. I guess I'd try and sign him along with Buxton. But if he declines just see where your at a couple of years from now. He could always be traded at that point.

 

Based on that, do you think Rosario is the guy to try to lock up now?

 

I'd say he's the most likely to take it, yes. But, I don't know his personality at all so I don't know if he would. 

 

edit: most likely of the hitters. I think Berrios takes a deal, but it is waaaaaaay to risky to do that with a pitcher, imo.