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Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:06 AM
That nice 6.5 game lead is down to 4 and the Twins face good pitching in their next four scheduled games. I do believe it is very possibl...
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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/14): Sano Grand Slam Over...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:25 AM
The second contest of Saturday's doubleheader provided another bullpen game, but that is about where the similarities ended. Things didn’...
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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/14): Bullpen, Polanco Mov...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:25 AM
The Twins defeated the Indians 2-0 in the first game of their doubleheader Saturday. Devin Smeltzer set the tone with three scoreless inn...
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Game Thread: Twins vs Indians 9/14/19 12:10 CDT & 6:...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:08 AM
The Cleveland Falcon         I was holding down a barstool in a cheap dive just down the street from what used...
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Front Page: Get to Know Jorge Alcala

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:54 PM
Minnesota called up Jorge Alcala on Saturday to help with the homestretch of the season. A two-game day on Saturday means the club will n...
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Bronx Bombers Catch the Bomba Squad. Can Twins Regain Record?

Can the Twins keep the home run record? Let's break it down.

Last night in the middle of the Twins 5-0 win over the Washington Nationals, the news broke: the New York Yankees had tied – and then PASSED – the Twins in home run totals. A clutch two-run home run by Mitch Garver put the Twins back into a tie before the night was over, but is the Bomba Counter a sham? Can the Twins stay ahead of the Yankees in the home run race?
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
The bad news first: the Yankees are on a tear. They caught the Twins last night because they hit SIX home runs versus Ron Gardenhire’s toothless Tigers. Hooray pitch to contact!. Even worse is that was just their first game against them this week. They have two more.

And it's not just one game. New York has averaged 2.5 per game over their last 35 games, which doesn’t sound like that big a deal (because who really pays attention to numbers after decimal points, amirite?) except that’s a 400+ home runs per year pace.

The good news? The Twins have two games more to play than the Yankees. So on a game-to-game basis, the Twins are technically eight home runs ahead. But with all the nagging injuries in the Twins lineup, their home run pace has slowed considerably. Since September first, the Twins have eight home runs in nine games. If that trend continues, those two games mean only two home runs, and the Yankees have already passed that by six home runs.

A longer term view shows just how consistent each team has been, and how the Twins curve has flattened out over the last couple of weeks while the Yankees’ has trended up. To help you out, I’ve highlighted the part that is not good.

Attached Image: Home_run_notgood_JB_900.jpg

Does the schedule help? A little. The Twins will face some pretty good pitching over the next five games versus the Nationals and the Indians, but then they get to face the bottom three in the AL Central again. They’ve hit 71 home runs versus the White Sox and Tigers this year in 36 games, or about two per game. Unfortunately, the Yankees finish their season at Texas, a ballpark notorious for giving up home runs.

I’m not going to sugar-coat this: it’s not looking good. The Twins’ home run pace has slowed, they are banged up and need to focus on winning a division. The Yankees are hot, getting healthier and can coast. It’s been a heck of a fun year, but it looks like the Twins will (again) have their lunch money stolen again by those Damn Yankees.

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53 Comments

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ScrapTheNickname
Sep 11 2019 11:25 AM

 

The Yankees have played two more games than the Twins. If you take away the Yankees two games (because the Twins have not played those two games yet) the Yankees would be eight home runs back, because that's where they sat two games ago.

 

But a more accurate way (in my mind) of thinking about it is that with two games in hand, it means the Twins are "up" as many home runs as you think they'll hit in those two games. For the season, that's about four home runs up. But for the last week-plus, that's just two home runs, which Rick Anderson's pitching staff should have no trouble making up. 

Huh?? 2 games. 1.97 home runs per game. 1.97 x 2 = 3.94. Rounded off to 4.

 

Imagine if the Yankees had Stanton all season. They would be 30 homers ahead of the Twins.

I don't think so -- his replacements have hit quite a few too. Yankee DHs this season have 37 HR -- and that didn't really take away HR from other positions either. 

 

Split HR
C 37
1B 25
2B 19
3B 31
SS 42
LF 25
CF 28
RF 31
DH 37

 

Stanton himself "only" hit 38 last year, in 158 games.

 

Encarnacion, Voit, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford -- all of those guys have hit plenty of HR in 2019 in place of Giancarlo Stanton.

I'd rather win a World Series than have the Home Run record....We showed the Yankees we can play with them and I don't think this team is afraid of them...
I 'liked' some of the posts because they were in tune with my thoughts on this. I think the most interesting thing about the HR record could be its permanence of MLB decides to go back to a real baseball next year and in the future. To me this is sort of like moving the mound in to 54' and being impressed by the amount of strike outs pitchers are accruing! :).
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To me this is sort of like moving the mound in to 54' and being impressed by the amount of strike outs pitchers are accruing! :).

They did that? Now the numbers start to make some sense! :)

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I 'liked' some of the posts because they were in tune with my thoughts on this. I think the most interesting thing about the HR record could be its permanence of MLB decides to go back to a real baseball next year and in the future. To me this is sort of like moving the mound in to 54' and being impressed by the amount of strike outs pitchers are accruing! :).

I'm with you...mostly. I agree with the sentiment that the numbers can't be interpreted in terms of where they would fit historically. About every record related to HRs is falling...most overall, most by a team, most in a month, most by a rookie in his first X games, most by a player before his 21st birthday...ad nauseam.

 

Still, I don't expect the 2019 team number to have much permanence. Two reasons. One, I don't think it's JUST the ball. Two, I think MLB very much wants the HRs. I think they see it as "well, if batting averages are going to be low, and strike-outs are going to be high, we need lots of home runs". And since the BA and K trends don't seem to be easing up any time soon, I'm not expecting MLB to be in any kind of a hurry to inhibit the HR trend...including materially 'correcting' the baseball.

The Yankees got to play the Orioles 19 times vs the Twins playing them 6 times, so eventually things were going to even up.  

The home run record for a season is it's own thing. It is not connected to getting to and winning in the play-offs. It doesn't have to be one or the other, even in one'e own mind. They are separate accomplishments that may or may not happen. It doesn't lesson one to care about one more than the other. Not caring about one doesn't make the other more likely to happen. Records are fun. Always have been. Always will be. That is why we keep track of them.

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Marv Gustafson
Sep 11 2019 05:10 PM
Maybe Pineda, Cruz, Polanco, or Rosario can hook them up with some "help"🙄
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Marv Gustafson
Sep 11 2019 05:17 PM
Maybe Pineda, Cruz, Polanco, or Rosario can hook them up with some "help"🙄
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Marv Gustafson
Sep 11 2019 05:22 PM
Oops, didn't mean to post twice. What can I say, other than I am old.😏

Why the big to-do over a possible home run record? It is only wins and losses that count in my book. A home run record is nice but not as nice as an AL Pennant waving over Target Field.

Team Season Home Run Record flags don't fly forever.

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diehardtwinsfan
Sep 12 2019 10:17 AM

 

Team Season Home Run Record flags don't fly forever.

yeah, and no matter who holds it, I suspect it gets broken in the not so distant future. 

Well it seems our hitters are comming back and we have 13 games against the bottom feeders so I still think we have a fighting chance.I also hope we can hit some other HR goals.We currently have 3 players who have hit 30 HRs.if Sano and Rosario can make it that would be 5 players on a team which i think is a record.we also have I think 8 20 HR hitters.I think that is a record too.so if the Yanks do have the most for the season we can end up with several other team HR records too.Although I hate the Yanks and I will be rooting for the HRs the rest of the season so we can win by one.  

 

So the bottom line is we will likely tie the Yankees for the most HRs in a season.

 

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yarnivek1972
Sep 12 2019 02:48 PM

Team Season Home Run Record flags don't fly forever.



They don’t????

😳
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yarnivek1972
Sep 12 2019 02:51 PM

yeah, and no matter who holds it, I suspect it gets broken in the not so distant future.


idk, it seems to me that MLB is going to have to do something. The big home run totals in the late 90s put fans back in the seats after the strike/lockout of 1994/5. But it isn’t playing out that way now. MLB attendance and ratings continue to trend down.

idk, it seems to me that MLB is going to have to do something. The big home run totals in the late 90s put fans back in the seats after the strike/lockout of 1994/5. But it isn’t playing out that way now. MLB attendance and ratings continue to trend down.


Local ratings are doing quite well, as I understand. It is a very different media landscape than even just a few years ago, so I suspect MLB isn't truly concerned about national ratings all that much.

3 more HR for the Yankees halfway through the second game of their doubleheader today. Up to 279 with 14 games remaining after today.

 

Twins at 277 with 17 games remaining.

How many of you knew that the Yankees held the record before the season started? Or who held it before that? Whoever sets it this year, it will almost certainly be broken again in a year or two. It's a nice talking point, but I honestly don't care that much.

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Kelly Vance
Sep 12 2019 06:26 PM

Nobody mentioned this, so I will.

 

The Damn Yankees movie, was about the player for the Washington Senators, now the Minnesota Twins, selling his soul to the Devil, in order to beat the Yankees just one year. 

 

The Yankees play in a little league park. Screw em. If Rosario or Kepler played there, they's average 50 homers a year. 

The Yankees play in a little league park. Screw em. If Rosario or Kepler played there, they's average 50 homers a year.


The Yankees actually have more HR on the road this year.
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3 more HR for the Yankees halfway through the second game of their doubleheader today. Up to 279 with 14 games remaining after today.

Twins at 277 with 17 games remaining.


One more for the Yankees too, so they have a cool 280 with 14 games left.
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Kelly Vance
Sep 12 2019 10:47 PM

 

The Yankees actually have more HR on the road this year.

Stop trying to change the subject.

 

 

 

 

jk

But we still have Bert Blyleven with the most homers allowed by a pitcher in a season. Anyone know the year and number?