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View Full Version : Max Kepler - My Adopted Prospect



luckylager
04-23-2012, 11:18 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTTZu1BF4cI

Prospect Info and Scouting ReportMax Kepler / OF, MIN
Born 2/10/1993 (19 yrs old)
Berlin, Germany

Height 6-4
Weight 180
Bats/Throws L/L
549ScoutingBook Combine Ranking (4/23/2012): #449 http://twinsdaily.com/css/img/none195.gif
MiLB.com Season Preview: Unranked or n/a
Scout.com/FOX Sports: Unranked or n/a
ESPN: Unranked or n/a
The Sporting News: Unranked or n/a
Baseball America 2012: Unranked or n/a
Baseball Prospectus: Unranked or n/a



Max Kepler-Rozycki is a big, strong, German-born outfielder deep in the Minnesota Twins system. He gets high marks from scouts for his instincts, baseball build and raw tools. At the same time, he's very young and hasn't established much of a baseline in professional play yet: we haven't yet seen him in anything higher than Appy-League play (.262/.347/.366 in only 191 at-bats). In that time, Kepler showed decent contact ability and good speed, coupled with some pretty rough but promising defense. He's been tested in each outfield position, and seems most comfortable as a left-fielder, though that has to be written in the faintest of pencil at this point. Give Kepler a couple of years, then check back to see whether he's blossomed enough that we can start making puns about stars yet.

luckylager
04-23-2012, 12:23 PM
715


http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20089373&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tc id=vpp_copy_20089373&v=3 A short review on Kepler from mlb.com.


Here's a WSJ from a couple years ago that gives some good background info on the Baryshnikov in Baseball Cleats (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204683204574356811579058466.html) . It is Kepler's unique background that led me to adopt him as my prospect. He is currently in extended spring training, but should "hopefully" be playing with the Snappers at some point in the near future.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-23-2012, 10:35 PM
Before tonight's game, I happened to be listening to the radio broadcast on 1500. I'm not sure who the interview was with (Rantz, maybe?) because I only caught the tail end. In a nutshell, the discussion was about how all the players at EST want to get out of Fort Myers and head to Elizabethton. Kepler's name was brought up and the response was that Kepler almost made the trip to Beloit and that he might only be an injury away from heading there anyway. Just thought that was interesting.

greengoblinrulz
06-22-2012, 12:00 AM
Max is now 19 and the excuse of being young is no longer valid if he is a true prospect.
Starter out last year 0-13 after 3 games (2-23 after 5gms---.286 after ) & is 0-13 after 3 games this year.
I realize he's young but you have to evenually produce something.....average/power/speed/etc & he's shown none

righty8383
06-22-2012, 01:01 AM
Max is now 19 and the excuse of being young is no longer valid if he is a true prospect.
Starter out last year 0-13 after 3 games (2-23 after 5gms---.286 after ) & is 0-13 after 3 games this year.
I realize he's young but you have to evenually produce something.....average/power/speed/etc & he's shown none

I don't know how hard he's hitting the ball but he has only struck out once in 13 AB's so far, so bad luck could be a factor in his 0-13 start. Otherwise I agree with you. Hew has to start doing something if he is to maintain his high prospect status.

greengoblinrulz
07-04-2012, 09:10 PM
since the start, 14-40 with 9bb 4k for a .350/.469/.475 line

greengoblinrulz
07-10-2012, 11:13 PM
Again..since the 0-13....16gms 19/57 for a .333/.506/.439 16runs 10rbi 14bb 6k 6hbp. The 14bb vs 6K is very nice but he needs to keep this up.

drjim
07-11-2012, 10:06 PM
Is he the most interesting prospect the Twins have? Could end up anywhere between flaming out in A ball to becoming a superstar.

greengoblinrulz
07-14-2012, 09:43 PM
5/11 over last 3gms w/double triple 2rbi 2bb
Since the 0/13 first 3.... 19gms 24/68 .353/.511/.485 16runs 3doubles 3 triples 12rbi 16bb 6k 6hbp
Pretty impressive.....when should he see the great state of Wisconsin???

gunnarthor
07-14-2012, 09:48 PM
when should he see the great state of Wisconsin???

Next year, I'd imagine.

greengoblinrulz
07-14-2012, 10:15 PM
Arcia spent his year 19 entirely in ELIZ (64gms) for comparison purposes, but this is Keplars 2nd yr in the lg (72gms) & 3rd overall. He is gonna have to be protected on 40man in 2 yrs after this. That is a gamble you have to take with signing a 16 yr old, so I think they may need to take a different approach. Not like the kid isnt doin EVERYTHING he needs to do (after the 0/13).
By 'great state of Wisconsin', I am bein sarcastic & know they probably wont let him into the state till he can legally drink (not like it stops anyone else)

Seth Stohs
07-15-2012, 02:28 AM
Kepler is an interesting case. As was mentioned above, he is very intriguing because he could top out in A-Ball or a big league regular. He's so talented, but he's so raw. That's why I think that Elizabethton is where he should be. That said, because he is such a high profile prospect, signed at 16, it will be interesting to see how that plays out too.

jlovren
07-15-2012, 06:35 AM
Again..since the 0-13....16gms 19/57 for a .333/.506/.439 16runs 10rbi 14bb 6k 6hbp. The 14bb vs 6K is very nice but he needs to keep this up.


I will be really impressed if he keeps it up through the next two levels of the minors but until then I am taking a wait and see approach.

greengoblinrulz
07-15-2012, 12:16 PM
Kepler is an interesting case. As was mentioned above, he is very intriguing because he could top out in A-Ball or a big league regular. He's so talented, but he's so raw. That's why I think that Elizabethton is where he should be. That said, because he is such a high profile prospect, signed at 16, it will be interesting to see how that plays out too.

thought you were thinking in spring training that Keplar shoulda been in Beloit to start season OR at least in Beloit when SS started---Niko also??? Why the philosiphy change?

Sssuperdave
07-16-2012, 07:20 PM
Sweet - a grand slam tonight!

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_07_16_blurok_elirok_1

I was getting a little concerned about his lack of power - I believe this is only his 2nd home run in 2+ years. Obviously one home run isn't enough to quell any concerns, but it's still nice to see. Given that he's only 19, is there plenty of time for him to develop more power, or is his like of home runs a concern to others?

gunnarthor
07-20-2012, 12:35 PM
BA included him in the prospect hot sheet today (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613746.html).
"Because the Twins don't have a short-season club, CF Max Kepler (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/93013) is getting a second run through the Appalachian League. If you're going to repeat a level, it pays to dominate it, and that's what Kepler is doing now. He had four extra-base hits in his first 21 games, then produced five extra-base hits in a four-game stretch, including home runs in three straight games. The 19-year-old has the sixth-highest OPS in the league (.958) and nearly a 2-1 walk-strikeout ratio"

kab21
07-21-2012, 02:37 AM
Sweet - a grand slam tonight!

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_07_16_blurok_elirok_1

I was getting a little concerned about his lack of power - I believe this is only his 2nd home run in 2+ years. Obviously one home run isn't enough to quell any concerns, but it's still nice to see. Given that he's only 19, is there plenty of time for him to develop more power, or is his like of home runs a concern to others?

The early scouting reports suggested that he would hit a lot of groundballs and line drives which would limit his home run totals. Combine that with his plate discipline and you are looking at a Joe Mauer starter package as a hitter. Ultimately it limits his upside but he's likely to be a plus defender on the corners or decent in center and it still carries a lot of value.

jlovren
07-22-2012, 09:56 AM
The early scouting reports suggested that he would hit a lot of groundballs and line drives which would limit his home run totals. Combine that with his plate discipline and you are looking at a Joe Mauer starter package as a hitter. Ultimately it limits his upside but he's likely to be a plus defender on the corners or decent in center and it still carries a lot of value.

As long as he has gap power than I am not too concerned about the home run totals.

Shane Wahl
07-22-2012, 10:51 AM
A Joe Mauer hitter without the killing of his legs . . .

That would be a HIGH ceiling for Kepler. A future of Kepler, Buxton, and Hicks/Benson??

Chance
07-22-2012, 11:54 AM
Arcia also

kab21
07-22-2012, 10:15 PM
I mention him as a Joe Mauer type hitter, not as the next Joe Mauer. here's an article from January that says he went from 6'3" 175lbs when he signed to a current 6'3" 210 now and he thinks he might get to 240.

http://www.heinnews.com/baseball/mlb/one-on-one-minnesota-twins-german-outfielder-max-kepler/

gunnarthor
07-23-2012, 10:44 AM
Kevin Goldstein wrote today that in his future shock column that: "When the Twins set a European bonus record by signing Kepler for $800,000 three years ago, it was a complete athlete bet. He's six-foot-four, graceful and strong, and few players at any level look better in a uniform, but it was going to take time for him to learn how to play the game. His middling numbers during his first few seasons were actually quite impressive considering where he came from, and while he's playing short-season ball for the third straight year, Kepler is still just 19 years old and making very real progress. With four more hits over the weekend, including his fourth home run of the year, Kepler is hitting .306/.440/.519 in 29 games and showing an outstanding approach with surprising contact abilities. His ceiling remains through the roof, and his chances of reaching it are rapidly improving."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17745

Sssuperdave
07-23-2012, 04:24 PM
I mention him as a Joe Mauer type hitter, not as the next Joe Mauer. here's an article from January that says he went from 6'3" 175lbs when he signed to a current 6'3" 210 now and he thinks he might get to 240.

http://www.heinnews.com/baseball/mlb/one-on-one-minnesota-twins-german-outfielder-max-kepler/

Very interesting article - thanks for posting. He seems very confident yet down to earth and open to constructive criticism. Of course, I'm just trying to read between the lines and don't actually know what I'm talking about. :)

He says he sees himself as a Josh Hamilton type hitter, or at least wants to model himself after Hamilton. Perhaps he is striving for more power than the initial scouting reports would have suggested. At one point he relays that the coaches say regarding his development: "... I'm doing good. I just need to get bigger, stronger, and maintain my speed..." Could he really maintain his speed from 175 pounds at 240 pounds? I'll take a Josh Hamilton type at any speed, but doesn't 240 sound a little bulky? At least from a speed perspective?

I'm really looking forward to watching his development. As has been stated before, he could be anything from an A-ball flameout to a big league regular (even superstar??). Even with success, he could be anything from a high average speedster to a middle-of-the-order slugger. Very fascinating.

righty8383
07-23-2012, 05:10 PM
KLAW recently tweeted that he likes Kepler and feels he could be an above average big leaguer. Just thought I would share that.

kab21
07-24-2012, 12:53 AM
My takeaway from the article was that he's going to have a Josh Hamilton body and like Hamilton he'll probably get pushed to a corner spot because you'll likely have a speedster like Revere/Hicks/etc in center.

I'm a little surprised that he thinks he'll go all the way to 240. His frame can handle it but it seems difficult to predict where one's weight ends up considering that he has already added 40 lbs in the last 3 years. I still think the big thing regarding his power potential is becoming more of a fly ball hitter than a groundball/line drive hitter. This is the same reason that Joe Mauer has never had much HR power. It's hard to hit HR's when you are hitting a lot of groundballs.

Shane Wahl
07-24-2012, 01:21 AM
2015 position players:

Aaron Hicks, RF
Max Kepler, LF
Joe Mauer, C
Miguel Sano, 1B
Oswaldo Arcia, DH
Trevor Plouffe, 3B
Joe Benson, CF
Brian Dozier, SS/2B
Levi Michael, 2B/SS

Bench:
Chris Herrmann, C/LF
Danny Santana or James Beresford, MI
Chris Parmelee 1B/RF
X

Pius Jefferson
07-24-2012, 07:32 PM
Any chance he gets some time in Beloit this season?

Seth Stohs
07-24-2012, 07:39 PM
He just hit his fifth home run for Elizabethton tonight... More and more, I'm thinking there is a chance he could be there by playoff time.

drjim
07-24-2012, 08:49 PM
He just hit his fifth home run for Elizabethton tonight... More and more, I'm thinking there is a chance he could be there by playoff time.

That would fit with what the Twins have done in the past. Let him finish the Appy League season and then push him up for the last couple of games and playoffs.

nicksaviking
07-26-2012, 12:25 PM
This guy was supposedly very raw and his skill set was based on athleticism. That's why I was surprised today when I saw his BB/K numbers.

20BB/15k in 143 PA? That is very impressive. That kind of plate presence often leads to quick promotions.

righty8383
07-26-2012, 12:41 PM
This guy was supposedly very raw and his skill set was based on athleticism. That's why I was surprised today when I saw his BB/K numbers.

20BB/15k in 143 PA? That is very impressive. That kind of plate presence often leads to quick promotions.

This and the fact that he has started to hit for some power is making me like him more and more. I would love to see him promoted sooner than later to see what he can do in a league that isn't so hitter friendly.

Obie
07-26-2012, 12:43 PM
2015 position players:

Aaron Hicks, RF
Max Kepler, LF
Joe Mauer, C
Miguel Sano, 1B
Oswaldo Arcia, DH
Trevor Plouffe, 3B
Joe Benson, CF
Brian Dozier, SS/2B
Levi Michael, 2B/SS


X

Michael is very questionable. Rosario is much more likely.

Jeremy Nygaard
07-29-2012, 10:47 AM
Interesting note from Terry Ryan on Kepler:

"He can play CF, but he's also been playing 1B for us."

I'd heard in the spring, he'd be working out at 1B, but he hasn't played an inning yet at 1B in a game (according to baseball-reference.com)

kab21
07-31-2012, 02:45 AM
Interesting note from Terry Ryan on Kepler:

"He can play CF, but he's also been playing 1B for us."

I'd heard in the spring, he'd be working out at 1B, but he hasn't played an inning yet at 1B in a game (according to baseball-reference.com)

This could be so that they have some flexibility in the future since there are a lot of OF'ers and very few 1B prospects. If a 1Bman is athletic enough it's easy to move to the OF and learn to run down flyballs but it's not as easy to learn to play the infield. It's a very different skillset.

shs_59
08-08-2012, 11:39 PM
Today, in Buxtons debut game for Appy League E-Town Twins.
Max Kepler (and A.B. Walker) stole the show.

Kepler went 4-4, HR (8) , 2B (12) and SB (5) !!!

great game for max today, and he's now batting in the .290 range.

rickyhawaii
08-09-2012, 12:27 AM
Kepler should get promoted soon, got to love what he's doing and his potential. He should definitely be a top 50-100 prospect in all of MLB.

glunn
08-09-2012, 12:41 AM
If Kepler is promoted to Beloit, then he can bat after Rosario and Sano -- a young murderers' row for pitchers.

Seth Stohs
08-09-2012, 01:11 AM
I'd leave Kepler right where he is until at least after the E-Town playoffs. He's still be able to play in the Midwest League playoffs. Twins did that with Deibinson Romero and Rene Tosoni last time the Snappers made the playoffs.

Kepler is putting up encouraging numbers, but he's so young and so raw, and it's not like he's putting up Arcia, Rosario or even Sano numbers in E-Town.

Oxtung
08-10-2012, 04:18 PM
I'd leave Kepler right where he is until at least after the E-Town playoffs. He's still be able to play in the Midwest League playoffs. Twins did that with Deibinson Romero and Rene Tosoni last time the Snappers made the playoffs.

Kepler is putting up encouraging numbers, but he's so young and so raw, and it's not like he's putting up Arcia, Rosario or even Sano numbers in E-Town.

I agree with what I assume was your main point; Kepler will not be ranked in the top 100 prospects lists. However, he is 19 this year in E-Town the same age as Arcia/Rosario and a year older than Sano was. So he isn't exactly young any more (compared to his competition at least). You're right he isn't putting up Arcia/Rosario/Sano numbers but he isn't that far off at this point either. His OPS is .019 less than Sano's was. He is definitely having a very good year and should move up the Twins prospect lists I would think.

luckylager
08-24-2012, 07:37 AM
Congratulations to my adopted prospect, Max Kepler, as well as Elizabethton teammate Candido Pimentel on being named to the 2012 Appalachian League All-Star team. Pimental was also named 2012 Appy Player of the Year!

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120823&content_id=37214284&vkey=news_l120&fext=.jsp&sid=l120

gunnarthor
08-30-2012, 04:00 PM
In today's fangraphs chat:
"Which prospect would you put more stock in: Bubba Starling or Max Kepler? Both have athleticism for days, Kepler currently has better numbers and is also a year younger but is also repeating the level........ "
Newman: "I'd rather have Kepler. Hands down."

Pretty interesting. Starling was BA #24 after he was picked 5th in the loaded 2011 draft.

greengoblinrulz
08-30-2012, 04:41 PM
Max final numbers
59gms 232ABs .297/.387/.539 40runs 16doubles 5triples 10HR 49rbi 33k 27bb 7/7sb's
finished first in Slgg & Total Bases
2nd in OPS, triples & RBI
Tied 4th in HR/doubles
6th in OBP
9th in BAve, tied 9th in runs

Will be nice to see how he rates this offseason in the top 100.....definately outperformed Bubba

gunnarthor
08-30-2012, 06:31 PM
Max final numbers
59gms 232ABs .297/.387/.539 40runs 16doubles 5triples 10HR 49rbi 33k 27bb 7/7sb's
finished first in Slgg & Total Bases
2nd in OPS, triples & RBI
Tied 4th in HR/doubles
6th in OBP
9th in BAve, tied 9th in runs

Will be nice to see how he rates this offseason in the top 100.....definately outperformed Bubba

Yeah, I linked the fangraphs guy b/c that was the first time I'd seen someone suggest Kepler higher than Starling (and later in the chat he suggested Buxton was a lot higher than Starling). I don't think Kepler will be on any top 100 lists next year but it's good to see him get some recognition. Nice season for a lot of Twins prospects this year.