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JP3700
11-04-2013, 06:50 PM
Transactions

- Sign Scott Feldman to a 2 year, $18M deal w/ a $9M vesting option if he hits 350IP over the 2 years.
- Sign Scott Kazmir to a 2 year, $17M deal.
- Sign A.J. Pierzynski to a 1 year, $8M deal.

40 Man Roster

C A.J. Pierzynski - $8M (1yr,$8M)
1B Joe Mauer - $23M (5yrs,$115M)
2B Brian Dozier
3B Trevor Plouffe - $2M (Arb 1,Super 2)
SS Pedro Florimon
LF Josh Willingham - $7M (1yr,$7M)
CF Alex Presley
RF Oswaldo Arcia
DH Ryan Doumit - $3.5M (1yr,$3.5M)

C Eric Fryer
1B/OF Chris Colabello
IF Eduardo Escobar
OF Darin Mastroianni

C Josmil Pinto AAA
C Chris Herrmann AAA
1B Kennys Vargas AA
2B Jorge Polanco A+
SS Danny Santana AAA
CF Aaron Hicks AAA
OF/1B Max Kepler A+

SP1 Scott Feldman - $9M (2yrs,$18M w/ $9M vesting option in 2016)
SP2 Scott Kazmir - $8.5M (2yrs,$17M)
SP3 Kevin Correia - $5.5M (1yr,$5.5M)
SP4 Samuel Deduno
SP5 Kyle Gibson

SP Andrew Albers AAA
SP Liam Hendriks AAA
SP Trevor May AAA
SP Alex Wimmers AA

CL Glen Perkins - $4M (2yrs,$8M w/ $4.5M club option in 2016)
SU Jared Burton - $3.25M (1yr,$3.25M w/ $3.6M club option in 2015)
MR Brian Duensing - $2M (Arb 2)
MR Casey Fien
MR Caleb Thielbar
MR Michael Tonkin
LM Anthony Swarzak - $1M (Arb 1)

CL Duke Welker AAA
SU Lester Oliveros AAA
MR Ryan Pressly AAA
MR Edgar Ibarra AAA

2014 Opening Day Payroll : $84M




Transactions

- Sign Max Scherzer to a 7 year, $175M deal.
- Sign Russell Martin to a 3 year, $30M deal.

25 Man Roster

C Russell Martin - $10M (3yrs,$30M)
1B Joe Mauer - $23M (4yrs,$92M)
2B Brian Dozier
3B Miguel Sano
SS Pedro Florimon
LF Eddie Rosario
CF Byron Buxton
RF Aaron Hicks
DH Oswaldo Arcia

C Josmil Pinto
IF Danny Santana
UT Trevor Plouffe - $4M (Arb 2,Super 2)
OF Alex Presley - $2M (Arb 1,Super 2)

SP1 Max Scherzer - $25M (7yrs,$175M)
SP2 Scott Kazmir - $8.5M (1yr,$8.5M)
SP3 Scott Feldman - $9M (1yr,$9M w/ $9M vesting option in 2016)
SP4 Kyle Gibson
SP5 Alex Meyer

CL Glen Perkins - $4M (1yr,$4M w/ $4.5 club option in 2016)
SU Michael Tonkin
MR Casey Fien - $1.5M (Arb 1,Super 2)
MR Caleb Thielbar
MR Lester Oliveros
MR Edgar Ibarra
LM Trevor May

2015 Opening Day Payroll : $95M




Transactions

It's hard to guess who will be available in trades and free agency in 2+ years, but it's safe to say that the organization will be in good shape. Payroll should surpass $100M so there will be some flexibility to add via trade or free agency. Perhaps another front line starter or a stud shortstop.

25 Man Roster

C Russell Martin - $10M (2yrs,$20M)
1B Joe Mauer - $23M (3yrs,$69M)
2B Brian Dozier - $3.5M (Arb 1)
3B Miguel Sano
SS Pedro Florimon - $1.5M (Arb 1)
LF Eddie Rosario
CF Byron Buxton
RF Aaron Hicks
DH Oswaldo Arcia

C Josmil Pinto
1B Kennys Vargas
IF Danny Santana
UT Trevor Plouffe - $5M (Arb 3,Super 2)

SP1 Max Scherzer - $25M (6yrs,$150M)
SP2 Alex Meyer
SP3 Kyle Gibson
SP4 Scott Feldman - $9M (1yr,$9M)
SP5 Jose Berrios

CL Glen Perkins - $4.5M (1yr,$4.5M)
SU Michael Tonkin
MR Zack Jones
MR Mason Melotakis
MR Lester Oliveros
MR Miguel Sulbaran
LM Trevor May

2016 Opening Day Payroll : $90M+

Let It Sano
11-04-2013, 07:34 PM
I love the idea of signing Scherzer in 2015. I don't know about seven years though. But, next year's FA pitching is going to be stacked with Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Bailey, Kershaw, maybe Gallardo or Cueto potentially out there. If Ryan plays his cards right this winter, maybe we pick up one (or two?) of them!

Major Leauge Ready
11-04-2013, 07:43 PM
Nice job looking at the steps necessary to build a contender. It is not going to happen through free agency. I think Loney is going to get at least two years and probably 3/22 but I agree he is a good bridge to Harrison/Vargas or anyone else that emerges as the 1B of the future. Of course, this assumes they decide to have Mauer catch.

I like the idea of Kazmir and one of Hughes, Feldman or Nolasco. The Dodgers or the Yankees are going to make a nuts bid on Tanaka. Kuroda is going back to the Yankees. Santana and Jemenez have the potential to be epic busts. No way would I take on the required contract and give up a pick given the risk. I am sure many will disagree but it is highly unlikely we contend with Detroit even if we got both of them so it would be really dumb to take on the risk. I would much rather have the $18M/yr to spend in 2017 than to have a 34 year old Santana or Jemenez on the books.

JP3700
11-04-2013, 09:14 PM
I love the idea of signing Scherzer in 2015. I don't know about seven years though. But, next year's FA pitching is going to be stacked with Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Bailey, Kershaw, maybe Gallardo or Cueto potentially out there. If Ryan plays his cards right this winter, maybe we pick up one (or two?) of them!

Yeah, seven years is more than I'd like but the only projection I've seen is 7yrs,$150M from a fangraphs chat. So I kept the years at 7 and overpaid a little to ensure he signs. We'd be getting his age 30-36 seasons so I'm hoping for an ace for the first 4 years, with decline in the last 3.

Couple of other factors are that he'd be a great leader for a young pitching staff and that the 7 years fits with when Buxton, Sano and Meyer will start to get expensive.

John Bonnes
11-04-2013, 09:15 PM
I like the addition of Feldman & Kazmir. Personally, that would be enough to get me excited about 2014. It's really not that outlandish.

JP3700
11-04-2013, 09:17 PM
Nice job looking at the steps necessary to build a contender. It is not going to happen through free agency. I think Loney is going to get at least two years and probably 3/22 but I agree he is a good bridge to Harrison/Vargas or anyone else that emerges as the 1B of the future. Of course, this assumes they decide to have Mauer catch.

I like the idea of Kazmir and one of Hughes, Feldman or Nolasco. The Dodgers or the Yankees are going to make a nuts bid on Tanaka. Kuroda is going back to the Yankees. Santana and Jemenez have the potential to be epic busts. No way would I take on the required contract and give up a pick given the risk. I am sure many will disagree but it is highly unlikely we contend with Detroit even if we got both of them so it would be really dumb to take on the risk. I would much rather have the $18M/yr to spend in 2017 than to have a 34 year old Santana or Jemenez on the books.

Thanks. I am not a big fan of this year's FA class but I picked the 2 pitchers I felt had the most upside without committing too many years. I wanted to be able to go all in on Scherzer in 2015 while still getting some value in 2014.

As for Loney, I haven't read any predictions that he'd get more than one year. The consensus is that he gets penalized for lacking power. Obviously, I could be wrong. If he ends up being a good fit and Mauer is able to catch through 2016, I would probably look to extend him mid-season for 2 years and pass on Cuddyer in the offseason. Then Mauer can slide into 1st base in 2017 for the last 2 years of his contract with Pinto and Stuart Turner sharing the catching duties.

Major Leauge Ready
11-04-2013, 09:49 PM
Thanks. I am not a big fan of this year's FA class but I picked the 2 pitchers I felt had the most upside without committing too many years. I wanted to be able to go all in on Scherzer in 2015 while still getting some value in 2014.

As for Loney, I haven't read any predictions that he'd get more than one year. The consensus is that he gets penalized for lacking power. Obviously, I could be wrong. If he ends up being a good fit and Mauer is able to catch through 2016, I would probably look to extend him mid-season for 2 years and pass on Cuddyer in the offseason. Then Mauer can slide into 1st base in 2017 for the last 2 years of his contract with Pinto and Stuart Turner sharing the catching duties.

I might be in left field in terms of Loney getting multiple years but I thought he has been solid enough that someone will give him 2-3 years. Hw was 11th in WAR. My guess would be something like 2/14. It's a nice low risk deal for the Twins and fills a gap if they decide Mauer will catch. Fielder was 18th.

70charger
11-05-2013, 11:58 AM
What about Worley? No faith he's got anything left?

JP3700
11-05-2013, 01:51 PM
What about Worley? No faith he's got anything left?

Worley, Diamond, Hendriks and Albers would all be competing for a spot in the rotation in ST. Barring injury, I just feel that these guys are the best 5 going into the season. Worley and Diamond are both out of options so they would be DFA or traded.

To answer your question, I don't have much faith in Worley. He relies on called strikes and we don't have a plus receiver like Ruiz. I'd say he'd be #9 on my depth chart heading into ST so he'd have to really impress. I think he still have some value this off season to an NL team looking for a bounce back season. Brewers would be a great fit for him with Lucroy as his catcher.

nicksaviking
11-05-2013, 03:09 PM
I like the addition of Feldman & Kazmir. Personally, that would be enough to get me excited about 2014. It's really not that outlandish.

Feldman doesn't get me too excited. I wouldn't be upset about him because he's proven to be a tradable commodity, but he doesn't seem to be the caliber of pitcher that could lead a rotation. I'd rather take a chance on the lotter tickets like Josh Johnson and the guys Nick Nelson wrote about: Twins Daily - A Look at the Other End of Free Agency (http://twinsdaily.com/2450-look-other-end-free-agency.html)

I think I'm about out of patience for pitchers who are unable to get strikeouts anywhere close to the league average rate. There should be plenty available, even on one year deals, who can manage at least a 7.0 K/9.

Major Leauge Ready
11-05-2013, 03:40 PM
Feldman doesn't get me too excited. I wouldn't be upset about him because he's proven to be a tradable commodity, but he doesn't seem to be the caliber of pitcher that could lead a rotation. I'd rather take a chance on the lotter tickets like Josh Johnson and the guys Nick Nelson wrote about: Twins Daily - A Look at the Other End of Free Agency (http://twinsdaily.com/2450-look-other-end-free-agency.html)

I think I'm about out of patience for pitchers who are unable to get strikeouts anywhere close to the league average rate. There should be plenty available, even on one year deals, who can manage at least a 7.0 K/9.

If they did sign Feldman and Kazmir they could afford to go after a high risk/return type, especially on an incentive based contract. There would still be money left over for help at 1B or OF. Which strike out pitchers do you think will be available on 1 or even 2 year deals beside Johnson that you would favor signing?

JP3700
11-05-2013, 11:15 PM
Feldman doesn't get me too excited. I wouldn't be upset about him because he's proven to be a tradable commodity, but he doesn't seem to be the caliber of pitcher that could lead a rotation. I'd rather take a chance on the lotter tickets like Josh Johnson and the guys Nick Nelson wrote about: Twins Daily - A Look at the Other End of Free Agency (http://twinsdaily.com/2450-look-other-end-free-agency.html)

I think I'm about out of patience for pitchers who are unable to get strikeouts anywhere close to the league average rate. There should be plenty available, even on one year deals, who can manage at least a 7.0 K/9.

Feldman isn't an ace, but he is a good bet to be worth his contract. Although he is slightly below average at missing bats (6.54 K/9), he backs that up with a high GB% (49.6%), a low LD% (18.9%) and good walk rate (2.77 BB/9).

I just don't think this is the year to go all in. With patience, we can be the Cardinals of 2016. A legit ace (Scherzer), a couple of star veteran players (Mauer,Cuddyer), productive low cost everyday players (Buxton,Sano,etc.), young power arms in the rotation and bullpen (Meyer,Gibson,Berrios,Tonkin,Jones,Melotakis,etc.) and a strong farm system (2014 1st round pick,Stewart,Thorpe,Polanco,Kepler,etc.)