PDA

View Full Version : Adrian Beltre – Hall of Famer?



Bark's Lounge
11-01-2013, 09:38 PM
I don’t really hear too much brought up about the stellar career Adrian Beltre is amassing.

We have always know that he is a stellar defender at 3B, but I wonder if our minds are entrenched in his ho-hum Seattle Mariners years. Although these years with the Mariners were primarily his “prime years”, he has produced 4 consecutive fantastic seasons playing for the Red Sox and Texas Rangers.

At this juncture in time, I view Safeco Field oppositely of Coors Field. Safeco is a hitters nightmare, whether that is because of the dimensions of the park, the marine environment, or the bad Juju of ten years of offensive stagnation coming from that ballpark. On this I give Beltre a Mulligan. If some will penalize a player for having a great career at an uber hitters friendly ballpark, I believe a player who is in the exact opposite environment should be cut some slack.

From the list I put together. Hoping my resources are correct, Beltre is ranked 8th in career WAR for a third baseman – behind the following:



Mike Schmidt
Eddie Matthews
George Brett
Chipper Jones
Brooks Robinson
Paul Molitor
Ron Santo


Note: A-Rod would be #1 on this list, but has still played more games at SS than 3B. Paul Molitor played a boat load at DH – If anyone wants to keep him in or keep him out as a third baseman, I am chill with that.

I recognize the value of sabremetrics, but I still believe that a great amount of counting stats are important as well as character and tenacity on the field of play. Beltre has 376 HR’s and 2,426 Hits, to go along with 4 gold gloves, I am not too sure about his character or tenacity, but going into his age 35 season, Beltre has 400 HR’s all but wrapped up and has a fair shot at reaching 3,000 hits before it is all said and done.

Adrian Beltre may not have the superstar designation that a guy like Chipper Jones has/had, but he is just about as good or equal.

Adrian Beltre is a National Baseball Hall of Famer.

ashburyjohn
11-02-2013, 05:00 PM
In his favor, his last name anagrams to Belter.

I have trouble getting excited about him, though. To me it's not a hall of Stats, it's a hall of Fame, and I'm fine with it being partly subjective. But he's got some more time to win me over.

raindog
11-02-2013, 05:31 PM
Never even gave it a thought, but I would say he definitely has a case. Especially if he has 3 or 4 good seasons left in him.

Of course, like Jeff Bagwell, he'll be penalized for possibly taking steroids. Unlike Bagwell, it seems pretty likely Beltre did. And I still don't care. Too bad the HoF voters are obsessed with it.

Brad Swanson
11-02-2013, 05:44 PM
Beltre is young and talented enough to get to 500 HR, 600 2B, 3000 hits, 1500 runs and 1500 RBI. He's also one of the best defensive third basemen ever and has a famous distaste for people touching his head. I say he's in.

Thrylos
11-02-2013, 05:50 PM
Depends

Let's see how he finishes his career. Borderline right now. Santo was elected by the veterans' committee. Also who knows how the writers will feel about his linkage to PEDs in 8-10 years when he will be up for election.

nicksaviking
11-02-2013, 06:07 PM
He came up when he was 19 so he has a pretty huge head start with the counting stats. He's only 35, playing great defense and less than 600 hits from 3,000. I think the odds are strongly in his favor that he gets there.

Even if he comes up short of the big milestones like Andre Dawson, I think he gets in as his defense is regarded as elite.

However, I feel the same about him as Ashbury does in that he just doesn't feel elite in his time. That has a tendency to change though once guys start approaching the milestones. Eddie Murray and Paul Molitor come to mind from past generations that seemed to be great but not elite players until they were approaching the end.

Edit: I must have forgotten about his linkage to PED's. Was it back with the Dodgers? Or are we just making assumptions? If there is a legit link, he's not getting in.

Bark's Lounge
11-02-2013, 07:19 PM
Edit: I must have forgotten about his linkage to PED's. Was it back with the Dodgers? Or are we just making assumptions? If there is a legit link, he's not getting in.

Nick - I was not aware of his linkage to PEDs either up until the last few minutes. It appears his link to PEDs is Eric Gagne's book "Game over, the story of Eric Gagne". Gagne claims that 80% of his teammates with the Dodgers used them. No names were given and Beltre has been on the record as saying he was not one of them... who knows?

twinsfan34
11-02-2013, 07:44 PM
If he's clean of PEDs (I had no idea he was even linked)

I didn't see his name in the Mitchell report.

List of Major League Baseball players named in the Mitchell Report - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_named_in_the _Mitchell_Report)

The guy was a young stud. At age 18 he dominated the minor leagues and was a legit player by the time he was 20 in MLB.

Great defense, 1500 RBIs, 400 HRs, and possibly 3,000 hits? If he gets the 3,000 and PED free, absolutely. If he gets 2,800 hits. Yes, by his 3rd yr of eligibility.

snepp
11-02-2013, 08:20 PM
He'd get my vote right now, anything he does from here on is just icing.

Seth Stohs
11-03-2013, 11:33 AM
I absolutely think he should be. The only thing, in my mind, that hurts him is that he isn't talked about nationally as much as he should be.

The Wise One
11-03-2013, 11:44 AM
Fred McGriff can't even get in the HOF. Beltre will have to have 500 HR and 3000 hits to stand a chance of making it in. Had he carried Texas on his back to a WS win and followed it up with another run he wouldn't need astronomical numbers. In this day and age of needing to be wowed, he might take an election campaign

ashburyjohn
11-03-2013, 12:22 PM
He'd get my vote right now, anything he does from here on is just icing.

Not that Bill James's similarity scores are official or anything, but take a look at Beltre's "most similar to" list on b-r.com, and compare to his "most similar through age 34" list. As it stands, he's ranked with members of the Hall Of Very Good, but he's on track to be an Outer (Not Inner) Circle HOFer if he can keep going at his present pace. To me, this confirms my view that he doesn't pass the (What If He Got Hit By A) Bus Test.

raindog
11-03-2013, 01:32 PM
Fred McGriff can't even get in the HOF. Beltre will have to have 500 HR and 3000 hits to stand a chance of making it in. Had he carried Texas on his back to a WS win and followed it up with another run he wouldn't need astronomical numbers. In this day and age of needing to be wowed, he might take an election campaign
Beltre plays a premium defensive position at an elite level, while McGriff was a 1B. That really separates those two, in my opinion.

The Wise One
11-03-2013, 05:06 PM
Beltre plays a premium defensive position at an elite level, while McGriff was a 1B. That really separates those two, in my opinion.

Yeah,I do not disagree with you, but how many are in the hall because they could play defense.

snepp
11-03-2013, 07:15 PM
Not that Bill James's similarity scores are official or anything, but take a look at Beltre's "most similar to" list on b-r.com, and compare to his "most similar through age 34" list. As it stands, he's ranked with members of the Hall Of Very Good, but he's on track to be an Outer (Not Inner) Circle HOFer if he can keep going at his present pace. To me, this confirms my view that he doesn't pass the (What If He Got Hit By A) Bus Test.

Those scores give him zero credit for being one of the game's historically elite defenders at third.

I call shenanigans. :)

snepp
11-03-2013, 07:27 PM
http://twinsdaily.com/asset.php?fid=3659&uid=1531&d=1383528268

ashburyjohn
11-03-2013, 07:46 PM
Those scores give him zero credit for being one of the game's historically elite defenders at third.

I call shenanigans. :)

The tool does, by hook or by crook, pair him up with Gaetti, Rolen, and Santo, none of whom were considered shabby with the leather. Rolen could get in, Santo's already in (by the epidermis of his molars).

Beltre's in good company, and could get in; I'm not ready to proclaim he's IN.

ashburyjohn
11-03-2013, 07:46 PM
http://twinsdaily.com/asset.php?fid=3659&uid=1531&d=1383528268

Houston, did not copy; over.

snepp
11-03-2013, 08:25 PM
Beltre's in good company, and could get in; I'm not ready to proclaim he's IN.

That's certainly fair*.






*even though you're wrong!

cgreuling
05-27-2014, 09:47 AM
4 Gold Gloves
4 Top 10 MVP Finishes
72 Career WAR (from baseball-reference)

Closing in on 2500 hits and 400 HRs.

1st ballot? 2nd ballot?

Brad Swanson
05-27-2014, 10:04 AM
I think Beltre has the potential to become the next generation's Tim Raines. Very deserving, not a slam dunk, but tons of support from the stat-friendly community. Personally, I think he's one of the best defensive players I've ever seen, so if he can keep up his recent offensive production for a couple more seasons, I'd vote for him.

Brock Beauchamp
05-27-2014, 10:05 AM
Fangraphs has him at 65 WAR. Still enough to get consideration, particularly because he's still going so strong, having accumulated 25 WAR in his past four seasons.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B

If he does this for another few years, I don't see how he doesn't get him. He has been sneaky-good for a long time.

twinsfan34
05-27-2014, 10:21 AM
Great question...or a question I've thought a lot about.

If his career ended today. No. He'd end up in the Bobby Abreu, Tim Raines, Vlad Guerrero, etc etc category.

Not winning a WS (0 for 2) hasn't helped him, though maybe not hurt him at much as it would an NFL player.

I was surprised to see he only has 4 GGs. He's a guy who I think needs the 3,000 hits to get in. He's 35. He should finish around 2,600 by year end.

So 400 hits shouldn't be too hard to get if he stays healthy. So maybe if no injuries by May/June of his age 38 season (2017) he cracks 3000.

Either way, I hope he makes it.

Hawkeye12
05-27-2014, 12:24 PM
Not being tied to steroids helps his case. I think he'll get to 3000 and make it moot, but a ring would probably seal it regardless. Probably not first ballot though without a World Series, but at least within three years.

nicksaviking
05-27-2014, 12:29 PM
If his career ended today. No. He'd end up in the Bobby Abreu, Tim Raines, Vlad Guerrero, etc etc category.


Actually, I think Vlad gets in. Not 1st ballot but likely in his first five years. Abreu and Raines were good players for a long time. Guerrero was an elite player for a decade and a good player for his entire career.

I agree with Beltre though. He is only 35. He plays strong defense and has very good on base skills, two things what will keep him employed even if other indicators point to a decline. He's not a lock for 3,000 hits, but I'd say the odds are strongly in his favor to get there. That would put him the the HOF.

Brandon
05-27-2014, 12:56 PM
I think he'll need longevity stats to get in. 3000 hits is becoming cliché as we are close to 30 players with 3000 hits so I say 3100 hits and 1600 RBIs and over 1000 XBHs will be needed. I think he can get there.

Winston Smith
05-27-2014, 01:17 PM
I think he has a better chance than Mauer does. Please don't yell at me!

Brock Beauchamp
05-27-2014, 01:17 PM
I think he'll need longevity stats to get in. 3000 hits is becoming cliché as we are close to 30 players with 3000 hits so I say 3100 hits and 1600 RBIs and over 1000 XBHs will be needed. I think he can get there.

I don't think they're cliche at all. As more players play the game, more will reach the 3,000 mark. That doesn't dilute the mark, that just means more people have played baseball.

cgreuling
05-27-2014, 03:25 PM
Here's a list of the Top 10 Third Baseman by WAR (from baseball reference)

1 Mike Schmidt HOF 106.5
2 Eddie Mathews HOF 96.4
3 Wade Boggs HOF 91.1
4 George Brett HOF 88.4
5 Chipper Jones 85.0
6 Ron Santo HOF 70.4
7 Brooks Robinson HOF 78.3
8 Paul Molitor HOF 75.4
9 Adrian Beltre 71.9
10 Scott Rolen 70.0

And for some reason bbref had Beltre #8 ahead of Molitor, not sure why. Maybe they took Molly down a notch for not really playing third base for a long time?

I'm a little surprised that Scott Rolen ranks so high...

Unlike the NBA, I can't discount a players credentials for lack of WS rings, a player is just 1/25th of a team. A single player can't be responsible for winning the WS.

Brock Beauchamp
05-27-2014, 03:59 PM
A single player can't be responsible for winning the WS.

If they were, Barry Bonds would have more rings than fingers.

Thrylos
05-27-2014, 05:31 PM
If Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell and (to a lesser degree) Mike Piazza are not Hall of Famers, so is not Beltre. Never know how the writers going to vote.

For me he is borderline (like Scott Rolen.)

Winston Smith
05-27-2014, 05:38 PM
Something to think about Joe Mauer is listed at 44.6 war tied with Chuck Knoblauch for 386. Thatreally surprised me.

Trautmann13
05-27-2014, 08:12 PM
I believe Beltre should be a first ballot HOFer. Yet, I'm not convinced he will be. He was rocky at best to begin his career, especially in Seattle. He most definately will be a second ballot though.

Physics Guy
05-27-2014, 08:25 PM
I think he has a better chance than Mauer does. Please don't yell at me!

Can I agree with you? Beltre has put together five out of his six best seasons since he turned 30. I'm starting to have a tough time seeing Mauer doing the same.

snepp
05-27-2014, 08:59 PM
I knew we had this discussion not long ago, and sure enough, we did. Threads merged.



And my opinion hasn't changed, he's still HoF-worthy right now.

Brad Swanson
05-27-2014, 09:19 PM
Something to think about Joe Mauer is listed at 44.6 war tied with Chuck Knoblauch for 386. Thatreally surprised me.

Knoblauch was on a borderline HOF path himself through age 28. Nearly 40 WAR, excellent defender, excellent baserunner, underrated hitter. Then it all fell apart.

I was firmly in the Mauer is a HOF player camp going into last season, but I also thought he'd stay at catcher for at least a few more seasons. Now, I'm not sure he will make the Hall.

Deduno Abides
05-27-2014, 10:03 PM
Beltre has clearly been one of the best players in the American League over the past few years. However, here's the anti case regarding his qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

He was a disappointment during his first seven years with the Dodgers, except for his walk year, when he became the poster child for players ramping up production in a walk year. Then, he got a big five-year payday to go to Seattle, where he was also generally considered to be an underperformer, although his stats were not bad, if not at the level of a Hall-of-Famer.

Other than his walk year with the Dodgers, he has produced like an HOFer only during the four years after leaving Seattle, starting at age 31, when he played in Fenway and Arlington, two favorable hitters parks. Part of being a HOFer is demonstrating consistent excellence through a career. Perhaps Beltre can continue his mid-30's success into his later 30's, but his 20's were generally a disappointment (again, except for the Dodgers walk year, when he was truly outstanding) and players that improve that much in their 30's are generally looked at with suspicion.

Kirby_Waved_At_Me
05-30-2014, 09:50 AM
The other thing to consider is that the HOF has a very small # of third basemen. The voters have been very picky with the position, and guys that have been voted in recently have had the big counting stats (3000 hits like Boggs, Molitor, Brett).
Chipper Jones should be a lock, but I would not be shocked if even he was not a 1st ballot guy.
Beltre has been great for a long time (I really REALLY wanted the Twins to sign him the last time he was Free Agent) and if he can keep it up until he turns 40, I think he'll be sitting closer to the top 5 WAR at his position. That should make it an easier vote for most.

Willihammer
05-30-2014, 12:51 PM
Beltre has clearly been one of the best players in the American League over the past few years. However, here's the anti case regarding his qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

He was a disappointment during his first seven years with the Dodgers, except for his walk year, when he became the poster child for players ramping up production in a walk year. Then, he got a big five-year payday to go to Seattle, where he was also generally considered to be an underperformer, although his stats were not bad, if not at the level of a Hall-of-Famer.

Other than his walk year with the Dodgers, he has produced like an HOFer only during the four years after leaving Seattle, starting at age 31, when he played in Fenway and Arlington, two favorable hitters parks. Part of being a HOFer is demonstrating consistent excellence through a career. Perhaps Beltre can continue his mid-30's success into his later 30's, but his 20's were generally a disappointment (again, except for the Dodgers walk year, when he was truly outstanding) and players that improve that much in their 30's are generally looked at with suspicion.

And that's maybe why he'll sit on the ballot a long time. Offensively he was up and down between below average and elite. He only has 4 GGs, 3 all star appearances, and zero MVPs. His career OPS+ is just 114. But he's always b een an amazing defender. As metrics improve and/or people start weighting them more heavily, I think his defensive value will push his case over the top.