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Nick Nelson
11-01-2013, 10:14 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2444-Free-Agent-Pitcher-Profile-Josh-Johnson

DAM DC Twins Fans
11-01-2013, 10:33 AM
I would take a flyer (like Pelfrey) on him. One year 8 or 9 million. Max 2 year 15 million. Maybe he could be a stop gap till the young guys (Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves) are ready.

Winston Smith
11-01-2013, 10:47 AM
Certainly worth the effort to sign him. He has big upside and the only downside is money which will go in Pohlads pocket if not spent. If he has a big year either trade him at the deadline or a QO next winter.
True or not I read his brother lives in the cities.

Jeremy Nygaard
11-01-2013, 11:05 AM
I'd like to see the Twins offer a Pelfrey-ish contract. Obviously more money, but incentives that could earn him up to $12, 13, 14m. If he's right - and reaches those incentives - you turn around and make him a QO.

(Wow. I typed out my comment and noticed I hadn't submitted it... lots of similar thinkers late in the morning.)

Smcginnity
11-01-2013, 11:36 AM
I would be all for us giving a Pelfrey contract to Josh Johnson, Johan Santana and Tim Hudson. All risky but mine as well :)

twinsfan34
11-01-2013, 12:19 PM
I'd give him a Correia contract.

(Pelfrey was already taken)

spycake
11-01-2013, 12:39 PM
Basically, any one-year deal would be fine for Johnson, and probably Hughes too. That's all they will be looking for this offseason, and with that short of a term, the dollars really don't matter.

Still would be nice to get a longer-term guy for the rotation too -- maybe Johnson or Hughes if they have success could be extended reasonably, or we could splurge on an Ervin Santana type.

Don't Feed the Greed Guy
11-01-2013, 01:23 PM
Johnson for one year, and Hughes for three. Pay what the market will bear, Pohlads.

Thrylos
11-01-2013, 01:59 PM
It will take more than a Pelfrey contract. He is not returning from a Tommy John surgery.

Hate to say it (because the price will be high), but his play in 2013 was not reflected by his 2-8 record and 6.20 ERA, but by his 3.58 xFIP. Add his more than 1 K/IP to his 93 mph average fastball, to his under 30 age and you got a guy who you (or someone) will want to sign for a 3-4 year contract.

And I think that a 3/40 or 4/50 might be what it will take, including incentives. Look at what Lincicum got, and Johnson has fewer questions...

TRex
11-01-2013, 02:07 PM
Can you make a Qualifying Offer if you only give a 1 year contract? IIRC, you didn't get compensation under the old rules unless the player was on a multi-year deal.

zenser
11-01-2013, 02:17 PM
I am not very high on Johnson due to his injury history. I would be happy that the Twins signed him if they also sign one or two other pitchers. If he is the only signing, I would be pretty disappointed.

Rick Niedermann
11-01-2013, 03:42 PM
My concern is that Terry Ryan will wait till the market establishes itself and he will cringe and pull back on aggressively pursuing anyone in free agency other then the scrap bin variety. I hope he jumps out of the gate after a Johnson, either Santana, Vargas or Hughes. Hughes I would be willing to go multiple years. He seems like a good fit for Target Field.

Thrylos
11-01-2013, 03:57 PM
I hope he jumps out of the gate after a Johnson, either Santana, Vargas or Hughes..

Vargas does not belong in this list. He would be a tremendous mistake. Nick Blackburn 2.0. But he is a groundball pitcher with a 87 mph FB who pitches to contact, which is what the Twins' like.

Nick Nelson
11-01-2013, 03:58 PM
And I think that a 3/40 or 4/50 might be what it will take, including incentives. Look at what Lincicum got, and Johnson has fewer questions...
Ah... no. Lincecum has made 32+ starts for six straight years and pitched ~200 innings this season. Johnson has made 32+ starts once in his career and is coming off a season that was shortened by arm problems and ended in elbow surgery.

Thrylos
11-01-2013, 08:43 PM
Ah... no. Lincecum has made 32+ starts for six straight years and pitched ~200 innings this season. Johnson has made 32+ starts once in his career and is coming off a season that was shortened by arm problems and ended in elbow surgery.

Looks like (http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24437409/minnesota-twins-josh-johnson-appear-an-unlikely-match) his camp will be asking close to Lincecum numbers... I am pretty confident that he will get it.

Interesting comments from Radcliff in that link, which make me think that these guys (Twins FO scouts) do not know the difference between "horrible" and "good" and they go by W-L and ERA. Unless they think that every single Twins SP was "horrible", since Johnson's 3.58 xFIP dwarfs all of the Twins' SP numbers, and his k/9 is almost double to the best Twins' SP.

TheLeviathan
11-01-2013, 10:34 PM
I highly doubt Johnson gets 7M. That's 1.5M more than Correia with cash flush in the league.

I'm guessing it's more akin to what Dan Haren got from Washington.

Trevor0333
11-01-2013, 11:26 PM
Really interesting tidbit from Radcliff about Johnson

Twins VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff threw some cold water on the possibility of a move on Johnson, Berardino further reports. Radcliff said that Johnson is coming off of a "horrible" year and "if he wants $10 million, we're not going to be involved with that

To which I would agree whole heartedly!

Old Twins Cap
11-01-2013, 11:41 PM
Here's the problem: Ryan will wait to see what the market bares and hope against hope that he will get a deal once the dust settles. Problem is, like last year, other teams will establish the market by signing the decent SP, leaving the Twinks with rejects, the scrap-pile and has beens. To get these guys, the Twins can't sit back and react. They have to be aggressive and spend right out of the gate.

beckmt
11-02-2013, 12:36 AM
Johnson would be worthwhile even on a 1 year contract. If you gamble and lose it happens and if you win, you can flip him at the deadline for some very good prospects. He then would not bog down payroll in the succeeding years.

diehardtwinsfan
11-02-2013, 06:04 AM
Johnson isn't going to get anything close to 10M (unless it's purely incentives). After a disappointing season and forearm pain, he's a Tommy John candidate waiting to happen. I'm guessing he gets less than Pelfrey. I'm fine going after him on a 1 year deal, but I'm guessing he's not getting more than 3 to 4M, and even that makes me cringe as I suspect he's on the 60 day DL by May.

Jeremy Nygaard
11-02-2013, 06:26 AM
Can you make a Qualifying Offer if you only give a 1 year contract? IIRC, you didn't get compensation under the old rules unless the player was on a multi-year deal.

You can. You can't make a QO to players that are traded during the season. Napoli, for example, will get a QO coming off a 1-year deal.

mike wants wins
11-02-2013, 10:58 AM
If he is the second best pitcher , great. If he is the top signee......too much risk for me.

Oxtung
11-02-2013, 01:13 PM
It's amazing how different opinions can be on a guy. In this thread there is everything from "sign him for 1 year and $3-4 million," to "he'll command 3-4 years and $40-50 million."

Personally I like Johnson more than just about every pitcher available this off season. Tough call between Jimenez, Santana or Johnson.

If Johnson is looking for a 1 year make good contract I would love for the Twins to be aggressive, overspend on the first year to acquire an option year. If that means going 1 year $20 million with a second year option at $15 million I would be OK with that. I would certainly be in favor of overspending on 2 seasons if that means an option year in year 3 as well.

IMO this kind of pitcher is exactly what the Twins should be looking for. Someone that has the potential to be a front line starter. The Twins don't have any currently and only have 1 potentially in the upper minors. After that you have to go all the way down to Kohl Stewart at A-Ball. It's pretty clear the Twins won't sign a Greinke quality player so the next best option, IMO, is to find a guy with flaws but potential and then be aggressive in pursuing him.

goulik
11-02-2013, 01:25 PM
IMO this kind of pitcher is exactly what the Twins should be looking for. Someone that has the potential to be a front line starter. The Twins don't have any currently and only have 1 potentially in the upper minors. After that you have to go all the way down to Kohl Stewart at A-Ball. It's pretty clear the Twins won't sign a Greinke quality player so the next best option, IMO, is to find a guy with flaws but potential and then be aggressive in pursuing him.

Amen! If your not going to go for Greinke, go for these guys hard being creative on the long term! Johnson, 1 year at 7 million with mutual options for next two seasons at 15-20 for example...

Wookiee of the Year
11-02-2013, 01:34 PM
Yeah, Johnson's among my favorite Twins targets. As mentioned above, he's got ace potential, and the Twins aren't going to pay for a True Ace with no question marks--which leaves gambling on high-upside guys.

I would happily see the Twins sign Johnson to a one-year deal for up to $10-12 million. If they can get him for less or get an option year out of him, all the better. If not, you've at least signed a guy with real top-of-the-rotation potential who, if he succeeds, you can flip at the deadline or offer a Qualifying Offer at the end of the year. If he falls on his face, well, there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-02-2013, 02:08 PM
It's amazing how different opinions can be on a guy. In this thread there is everything from "sign him for 1 year and $3-4 million," to "he'll command 3-4 years and $40-50 million."

Personally I like Johnson more than just about every pitcher available this off season. Tough call between Jimenez, Santana or Johnson.


IMO this kind of pitcher is exactly what the Twins should be looking for. Someone that has the potential to be a front line starter. The Twins don't have any currently and only have 1 potentially in the upper minors. After that you have to go all the way down to Kohl Stewart at A-Ball. It's pretty clear the Twins won't sign a Greinke quality player so the next best option, IMO, is to find a guy with flaws but potential and then be aggressive in pursuing him.

I'd say Jimenez is a easily the best pitcher on the market.
Jimenez
2013: 3.43 FIP, 2012: 5.06 (Fluke), 2011: 3.67 2010: 3.10

Johnson (injury concerns and noticeable trend)
2013: 4.62 FIP, 2012: 3.40 2011: 2.64 2010: 2.10

Santana (hasn't outperformed Jimenez since 2008)
2013: 3.93 FIP, 2012: 5.63 2011: 4.00 2010: 4.28

TopGunn#22
11-02-2013, 04:25 PM
I'm sure Terry Ryan (or the Pohlads) don't read any of this stuff. But really, you guys are the backbone of Twins fans and to a man, NONE of you have any faith in Terry Ryan. And I agree with you all 100%! He has done nothing recently to inspire any confidence with Twins fans that HE, Terry Ryan, will set the market, but rather, Ryan will intently study what OTHER people will do (thus letting OTHERS set the market) and play it safe. Our starting pitching is historically bad and talented prospects are 2-3 years away from contributing. This is why Ryan needs to sign 3 pitchers. Two decent ones with the potential to be with us 3 years from now (Jimenez, E. Santana, Hughes, Tanaka) and one "flyer" like Johnson or Johan Santana. Money should not be a problem. The Twins are at risk of losing the fan base and they might not come back until the Twins are winning. And if Ryan waits for the market to establish itself before he decides to enter the fray, "winning" will be a long way off and there will be a lot of empty seats at Target Field.

Thrylos
11-02-2013, 04:27 PM
I'd say Jimenez is a easily the best pitcher on the market.
Jimenez
2013: 3.43 FIP, 2012: 5.06 (Fluke), 2011: 3.67 2010: 3.10

Johnson (injury concerns and noticeable trend)
2013: 4.62 FIP, 2012: 3.40 2011: 2.64 2010: 2.10

Santana (hasn't outperformed Jimenez since 2008)
2013: 3.93 FIP, 2012: 5.63 2011: 4.00 2010: 4.28

Average Jimenez' and Jonhson's FIPs and see who has the best. I'd argue that Johnson's 2013 FIP was a fluke more than Jimenez' 2012 FIP (compare their xFIPs and BABIPs for those 2 seasons.)

And in 2013 Johnson played in AL East while Jimenez in AL Central that had 2 of the worst teams in baseball. Big difference.

Oxtung
11-03-2013, 12:22 AM
I'd say Jimenez is a easily the best pitcher on the market.
Jimenez
2013: 3.43 FIP, 2012: 5.06 (Fluke), 2011: 3.67 2010: 3.10

Johnson (injury concerns and noticeable trend)
2013: 4.62 FIP, 2012: 3.40 2011: 2.64 2010: 2.10

Santana (hasn't outperformed Jimenez since 2008)
2013: 3.93 FIP, 2012: 5.63 2011: 4.00 2010: 4.28

Why did you pick FIP? As a predictive stat it lags behind both xFIP and SIERA, which is currently the best on the market.



SIERA

2010

2011

2012

2013

Avg.



Jimenez

3.68

3.74

4.85

3.74

4.00



Santana

4.26

3.95
4.35

3.85

4.10



Johnson

3.10

3.36

3.86

3.73

3.51







xFIP-1

2010

2011

2012

2013

Avg.



Jimenez

90

95

121

91

99



Santana

103

97

108

93

100



Johnson

76

86

95

90

87



1 xFIP- is traditional xFIP that has been normalized so that 100 is average and for every whole number below 100 that player is 1% better than average. So an xFIP- of 90 means Johnson was 10% better than the average pitcher in 2013 (the fact that his ERA- was 152 is then attributable to unknown factors and bad luck).


According to the two best metrics Johnson has been a better pitcher literally every season. The only thing that worries me about Johnson, and it is a pretty minor worry, is that his FB velocity has dropped 1 MPH over the last 2 seasons. Of course it still sits at 93 MPH so....

Wookiee of the Year
11-03-2013, 12:56 AM
According to the two best metrics Johnson has been a better pitcher literally every season.
I'm embarrassed to say that I don't know the answer to this question: Do the +/- stats incorporate Innings Pitched (or, in the case of OPS+, Plate Appearances) into their value? My assumption has always been that they do not. If that's the case, then that's pretty big factor in Johnson's potential value that's being left out.

Oxtung
11-03-2013, 08:39 AM
I'm embarrassed to say that I don't know the answer to this question: Do the +/- stats incorporate Innings Pitched (or, in the case of OPS+, Plate Appearances) into their value? My assumption has always been that they do not. If that's the case, then that's pretty big factor in Johnson's potential value that's being left out.

No they do not. They only take into account how well a player pitched, not how often.

To me though, injury history and IP mean very little with the exception of a player coming off a significant injury, like TJ surgery. If there is a specific reason why a pitcher may not be ready or may not be able to pitch, like Shaun Marcum in 2014, then it is important but I don't believe in "injury prone" as a label. Players are only "healthy" until they aren't and anybody can blow their elbow out, "injury prone" or not. I understand that there are different opinions on this and I am probably in the minority.

jorgenswest
11-03-2013, 09:00 AM
I would think Johnson will be seeking a one year deal (no team option) as long as he believes his ace level of performance. In this case money will not be the most important factor. He can give up a few million this year as long as he can find a situation where he will have a big year. If he does that few million will be more than made up in his next contract.

He will get one year offers. Will it be the Twins? Will he see the Twins as the best place to build his value for 2015?

The Wise One
11-03-2013, 09:54 AM
No they do not. They only take into account how well a player pitched, not how often.

To me though, injury history and IP mean very little with the exception of a player coming off a significant injury, like TJ surgery. If there is a specific reason why a pitcher may not be ready or may not be able to pitch, like Shaun Marcum in 2014, then it is important but I don't believe in "injury prone" as a label. Players are only "healthy" until they aren't and anybody can blow their elbow out, "injury prone" or not. I understand that there are different opinions on this and I am probably in the minority.

When over a 4 year period a player misses over a season's worth of games there should be concern. If you want to argue over who is the better player then injuries do not factor in. If you want to argue who will help a team out more the injuries matter. For 2013 Marcum's injury was not his elbow but his shoulder. So when you have to ask is this guy going to be healthy, which you have to do for Johnson, IP matters.

The Wise One
11-03-2013, 10:58 AM
Also when your metric has predictive value and you call it as more accurate, what are you considering accuracy? If you say something like it means he pitched better or worse than his era and should do better then that is not much of a prediction.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-03-2013, 12:11 PM
Average Jimenez' and Jonhson's FIPs and see who has the best. I'd argue that Johnson's 2013 FIP was a fluke more than Jimenez' 2012 FIP (compare their xFIPs and BABIPs for those 2 seasons.)

And in 2013 Johnson played in AL East while Jimenez in AL Central that had 2 of the worst teams in baseball. Big difference.

First off, I'm not sure how you can say Johnson's was more of a fluke than Jimenez's. Jimenez has already proven 2012 was a fluke with 2013 and Johnson is still a question mark.

I'm not sure it's such a big difference. I can argue that since Jimenez has pitched more innings than Johnson over the past few seasons, that he's had a more difficult challenge than pitching to the East. I'll take a 4.00 FIP (Jimenez average) with 547 IPs* over a 3.54 FIP (Johnson average) with 333IP.

*Jimenez has 547IP in the past 3 seasons and hasn't missed any significant time in his career. Johnson has 333IP in the past 3 years.

Oxtung
11-03-2013, 12:11 PM
When over a 4 year period a player misses over a season's worth of games there should be concern. If you want to argue over who is the better player then injuries do not factor in. If you want to argue who will help a team out more the injuries matter. For 2013 Marcum's injury was not his elbow but his shoulder. So when you have to ask is this guy going to be healthy, which you have to do for Johnson, IP matters.

Three points. First, IMO injuries only matter if they lead to a pre-existing condition that will prevent a player from pitching or pitching effectively. Johnson's injuries have been unconnected as far as I can tell. Now I'm not a doctor, maybe there is an underlying condition that has caused his problems in which case I would certainly have to reconsider my analysis.

Second, I'd rather have, because I think it helps the team more, 20 starts by Johnson and 10 starts by [insert AAAA pitcher here] than 30 starts by [insert #3-#5 starter here].

Third, many players have been the definition of durable. Until they weren't. No pitcher is immune to injuries. Hello, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, et. al.


Also when your metric has predictive value and you call it as more accurate, what are you considering accuracy? If you say something like it means he pitched better or worse than his era and should do better then that is not much of a prediction.

SIERA is currently considered to be the best ERA Estimator (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-siera-part-two-of-five-unlocking-underrated-pitching-skills/) and Projection system (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/) available (with the exception of Steamer since I have not seen a direct comparison of the two and don't know how Steamer approaches it's projections). In Mathematical terms it scored the best in both Correlation and Root Mean Square Error in predicting future ERAs.

The Wise One
11-03-2013, 12:44 PM
Three points. First, IMO injuries only matter if they lead to a pre-existing condition that will prevent a player from pitching or pitching effectively. Johnson's injuries have been unconnected as far as I can tell. Now I'm not a doctor, maybe there is an underlying condition that has caused his problems in which case I would certainly have to reconsider my analysis.

Second, I'd rather have, because I think it helps the team more, 20 starts by Johnson and 10 starts by [insert AAAA pitcher here] than 30 starts by [insert #3-#5 starter here].

Third, many players have been the definition of durable. Until they weren't. No pitcher is immune to injuries. Hello, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, et. al.



SIERA is currently considered to be the best ERA Estimator (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/new-siera-part-two-of-five-unlocking-underrated-pitching-skills/) and Projection system (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/) available (with the exception of Steamer since I have not seen a direct comparison of the two and don't know how Steamer approaches it's projections). In Mathematical terms it scored the best in both Correlation and Root Mean Square Error in predicting future ERAs.

In terms of accuracy it correlates to what? 80% chance that the ERA for a pitcher with a SIERA of 3.75 will be somewhere between 3.25 and 4.25? It may be the most accurate, but again look at you table SIERA and the next year's ERA.

The conversation was Jimenez versus Johnson. Jimmenez is now a number 3-5 starter?

Fair enough on the comment about durability until they were not. Problem is that Johnson fits the latter category. Lohse had only one season of less than 20 starts when used as a regular starter

Oxtung
11-03-2013, 02:03 PM
In terms of accuracy it correlates to what? 80% chance that the ERA for a pitcher with a SIERA of 3.75 will be somewhere between 3.25 and 4.25? It may be the most accurate, but again look at you table SIERA and the next year's ERA.
I'm not sure what your point is here. We use the tools we have available to us. Are any of the metrics perfect? No, but if a point is going to be made using a metric I think the best metrics should be used. In this case that is SIERA.


The conversation was Jimenez versus Johnson. Jimenez is now a number 3-5 starter?
He's very volatile and as such might have a few #2 type seasons and a few #4 type seasons, so in the end yes, I think he is a #3 starter. The Twins Daily crew seems to think so as well. Their 4 years for $64 million is right in line with Edwin Jackson's contract last season as well as Kyle Lohse's, after adjusting for the additional influx of revenue and Lohse's draft pick compensation and age.


Fair enough on the comment about durability until they were not. Problem is that Johnson fits the latter category.

Is there any reason to think that his back problems of 2009 are going to affect his 2014 pitching? Is the fact that he had TJ surgery in 2007 relevant to 2014? He had a bone spur removed in early October and it had a 5 week recovery period. Does that mean he won't be ready to go in 2014?

It's easy to say he's "injury prone" but that is lazy analysis. It's one thing if a guy has a reoccurring issue like Johan Santana, who has been out because of his shoulder for multiple seasons. That is obviously a huge red flag. Josh Johnson is a totally different case though. None of his injuries appear to be related. They are all seemingly random.

The Wise One
11-03-2013, 04:07 PM
I'm not sure what your point is here. We use the tools we have available to us. Are any of the metrics perfect? No, but if a point is going to be made using a metric I think the best metrics should be used. In this case that is SIERA.


He's very volatile and as such might have a few #2 type seasons and a few #4 type seasons, so in the end yes, I think he is a #3 starter. The Twins Daily crew seems to think so as well. Their 4 years for $64 million is right in line with Edwin Jackson's contract last season as well as Kyle Lohse's, after adjusting for the additional influx of revenue and Lohse's draft pick compensation and age.



Is there any reason to think that his back problems of 2009 are going to affect his 2014 pitching? Is the fact that he had TJ surgery in 2007 relevant to 2014? He had a bone spur removed in early October and it had a 5 week recovery period. Does that mean he won't be ready to go in 2014?

It's easy to say he's "injury prone" but that is lazy analysis. It's one thing if a guy has a reoccurring issue like Johan Santana, who has been out because of his shoulder for multiple seasons. That is obviously a huge red flag. Josh Johnson is a totally different case though. None of his injuries appear to be related. They are all seemingly random.

You still can't answer how accurate SIERA is. It gives you a ballpark figure what an ERA might be. So to say it is the best metric. It really doesn't measure anything in terms of future success. It fails by definition of a metric. But use it anyway to say one pitcher was better than the other. BTW, one study showed that after 200 innings all the metrics were about the same.

Johnson. Chips in the elbow. 2 stints on the dl for triceps issues. One season lost due to shoulder inflammation, and one TJ. Only 2 seasons where he pitched more than 30 games. I never said he is injury prone. I bring up the statistic that he does not pitch for a whole season. You take it to mean what you want. Johnson has had 2 great years of pitching as has Jimenez . Jimenez has had 1 bad year and 3 above average years. A mid 3 WAR pitcher is a number 2 on most staffs. Not pitching at all gives you a number 6 starter.
An icentive based contract with it vesting for IP would be good. Benadino said his agent wants a multi year contract. He is out of luck that Moreno might not be a free spender on pitchers

Oxtung
11-03-2013, 06:15 PM
You still can't answer how accurate SIERA is. It gives you a ballpark figure what an ERA might be. So to say it is the best metric. It really doesn't measure anything in terms of future success. It fails by definition of a metric. But use it anyway to say one pitcher was better than the other. BTW, one study showed that after 200 innings all the metrics were about the same.
Again, I'm not saying that SIERA is perfect, only that it is the best available. If we can't use any metrics because "it doesn't measure future success" (which is BS by the way) then how do you suggest we judge pitchers? Could you post a link to the aforementioned study? I'd love to read it.


Johnson. Chips in the elbow. 2 stints on the dl for triceps issues. One season lost due to shoulder inflammation, and one TJ. Only 2 seasons where he pitched more than 30 games. I never said he is injury prone. I bring up the statistic that he does not pitch for a whole season. You take it to mean what you want. Johnson has had 2 great years of pitching as has Jimenez . Jimenez has had 1 bad year and 3 above average years. A mid 3 WAR pitcher is a number 2 on most staffs. Not pitching at all gives you a number 6 starter.
An icentive based contract with it vesting for IP would be good. Benadino said his agent wants a multi year contract. He is out of luck that Moreno might not be a free spender on pitchers

I'm not really sure how to respond to this. You state that he has missed an entire seasons worth of starts over the last 4 years. Then you list every injury he has had in his career that has caused him to miss time. Now you claim you you're not implying he's injury prone?

I have no idea what you're talking about w/r to Berardino. There is a quote (http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24437409/minnesota-twins-josh-johnson-appear-an-unlikely-match) from Johnson's agent about wanting a 1 year deal and he suggests it should be around $14 million. I also have no idea who Moreno is in this context.

It's clear that you value "health" and innings pitched in previous years. As I've already stated, and tried to explain why multiple times, I don't. I'm sure I'm in the minority. Let's move on.

ashburyjohn
11-03-2013, 07:15 PM
Moderator's note: the back and forth between two members on the side topic of metrics has probably about run its course - if by chance either of you feels motivated to pursue it further, how about starting a fresh thread on it?

AM.
11-04-2013, 04:50 AM
How about the Twins sign Ubaldo for 4/52 AND Josh Johnson for 1/11 plus hopefully an option year for 12-14?

Can the Twins find 24mm in salary space for this year for both of these guys? Getting Johnson the Twins roster, even on a 1-year deal, is the best way to keep him for an extended time (see Pavano, Carl.)

Then I'd like to see Ryan round out his über-aggressive pitching spending spree with a flyer on Phil Hughes (3/18?) or Johan.

Would anyone else sign on to this plan?

bl4ckduck
11-04-2013, 12:21 PM
Let's look back in the past less than one year. In order to get Kevin Correia, the DEFINITION of league average, we had to give him two years. Hometown connection or not, we're still going to have to overpay to get Josh Johnson.

I like the 1 year plus options route, but honestly, if we had to guarantee him as many as three years, I say go for it. We've got money to spend. You don't spend FA money on the "one piece", you spend FA money on building certainty, something to build around.

nicksaviking
11-04-2013, 01:44 PM
How about the Twins sign Ubaldo for 4/52 AND Josh Johnson for 1/11 plus hopefully an option year for 12-14?

Can the Twins find 24mm in salary space for this year for both of these guys? Getting Johnson the Twins roster, even on a 1-year deal, is the best way to keep him for an extended time (see Pavano, Carl.)

Then I'd like to see Ryan round out his über-aggressive pitching spending spree with a flyer on Phil Hughes (3/18?) or Johan.

Would anyone else sign on to this plan?

I would sign off, but I'm guessing Hughes and Jimenez won't. With the added revenue I'd bet Jimenez gets closer to $15-16M per year. I also don't think Hughes goes for that deal. If he can only get $6M per, he's only going to accept a one year deal to rebuild his value.

Still, even if it's 4/64 for Jimenez and 1/8 or 2/16 for Hughes, I'm game.

Frankly, any contract the front office gives to any pitcher with plus strikeout potential I will endorse, even if it's a guy I don't much care for or believe in. The effort is what will count in my book as I have been waiting over 20 years for that kind of initiative.

TheLeviathan
11-04-2013, 01:51 PM
How about the Twins sign Ubaldo for 4/52 AND Josh Johnson for 1/11 plus hopefully an option year for 12-14?

Can the Twins find 24mm in salary space for this year for both of these guys? Getting Johnson the Twins roster, even on a 1-year deal, is the best way to keep him for an extended time (see Pavano, Carl.)

Then I'd like to see Ryan round out his über-aggressive pitching spending spree with a flyer on Phil Hughes (3/18?) or Johan.

Would anyone else sign on to this plan?

In addition to being well argued and something I completely agree with, you sold me with the effort to put an umlaut on "uber".

nicksaviking
11-04-2013, 02:28 PM
I'm interested in Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, but is anyone else concerned that they both had rebound seasons the same time they were introduced to Terry Francona and pitching coach Mickey Callaway? What if those men have a knowledge, technique or philosophy those runnig the Twins do not posess?

With the track record of the recent Twins pitching staffs, I don't think it's out of line to say it would be best to get pitchers who can bring their A game to town with them and need as little in-season refinement as possible. I don't want to rely on the club's current coaching staff to have to adjust anyone on the fly.

PseudoSABR
11-04-2013, 02:56 PM
That JJ didn't receive a QO makes signing him more palatable. And I agree, that if the Twins are interested in Johnson long term if he returns to form, a one year deal is the best way to make that happen. That said, I don't blame the Twins for their apparent lack of interest in JJ, given his health.

AM.
11-05-2013, 07:04 AM
In addition to being well argued and something I completely agree with, you sold me with the effort to put an umlaut on "uber".

[debating whether to take credit for iPhone autocorrect.]

I personally think a rotation of JJohnson, Ubaldo, Gibson, Deduno, and Hughes/Worley would make the Twins pretty competitive, actually.

And a lineup of Hicks, Mauer, Arcia, Willingham, Colabello, Plouffe, Parmelee, and Florimon...actually could be productive too.

Meyer and Sano waiting in the wings.

Then Josh Johnson can start and win the Wild Card game, and get extended for 4/50.

AM.
11-05-2013, 07:06 AM
Dozier, too.

TheLeviathan
11-05-2013, 09:34 AM
[debating whether to take credit for iPhone autocorrect.]

I personally think a rotation of JJohnson, Ubaldo, Gibson, Deduno, and Hughes/Worley would make the Twins pretty competitive, actually.

And a lineup of Hicks, Mauer, Arcia, Willingham, Colabello, Plouffe, Parmelee, and Florimon...actually could be productive too.

Meyer and Sano waiting in the wings.

Then Josh Johnson can start and win the Wild Card game, and get extended for 4/50.

I think the offense still would need some serious work, but at least it's a competent pitching staff with upside to be well above that.

It's important, IMO, to not let the second biggest mistake of last offseason (And it's not as distant a second place as people think) to ignore the offense and not address needs there.

Nick Nelson
11-08-2013, 11:14 AM
Add his more than 1 K/IP to his 93 mph average fastball, to his under 30 age and you got a guy who you (or someone) will want to sign for a 3-4 year contract.

And I think that a 3/40 or 4/50 might be what it will take, including incentives. Look at what Lincicum got, and Johnson has fewer questions...

Yeah, about that...

From Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick (via Parker (http://twinsdaily.com/2462-thoughts-twins-one-baseball-agent-s-perspective-minnesota-s-front-office.html)):

There’s no question that we are going to go after a one-year and try to rebuild his value because he’s going to be treated as an injury liability