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View Full Version : Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez



Nick Nelson
10-25-2013, 12:25 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2431-Free-Agent-Pitcher-Profile-Ubaldo-Jimenez

orangevening
10-25-2013, 05:13 AM
I would do 3/52$, but giving up the draft pick kills it for me

071063
10-25-2013, 07:01 AM
I think Jimenez is worth the risk. The Twins needs a veteran "ace" and he fits the bill, even with the risk. I'm not sure he would be the leader in the clubhouse like they would like, but I also don't know that he won't.

The Twins need to make a committment to starting pitching and it will probably be somewhat risky in order to get the pitcher with the upside that they will be looking for and need. Jimenez fits that bill. Now, the key is really, how does he turn out. We need him to be very successful!

Brock Beauchamp
10-25-2013, 07:31 AM
I think it's a stretch for Ryan to pay for any of these guys but I think it's a giant stretch to expect him to give up a draft pick as well. I just don't see him going after Ubaldo.

twinsfan34
10-25-2013, 08:27 AM
I think it's a stretch for Ryan to pay for any of these guys but I think it's a giant stretch to expect him to give up a draft pick as well. I just don't see him going after Ubaldo.

+1

No shot if the guy is offered a Qualifying Offer (loses 2nd RD Draft pick).

Brock Beauchamp
10-25-2013, 08:36 AM
+1

No shot if the guy is offered a Qualifying Offer (loses 2nd RD Draft pick).

A very good second round pick. Given how the current CBA and qualifying offers are constructed, giving up picks is a really big deal, especially when you're picking somewhere in the 40-range with your second pick.

Back when qualifying offers were thrown out like candy and there were 10+ supplemental picks every season, it's wasn't such a big deal. Yeah, the Twins might lose a second round pick but they probably had at least one supplemental pick coming back from another player. That is no longer the case.

SpiritofVodkaDave
10-25-2013, 09:35 AM
A very good second round pick. Given how the current CBA and qualifying offers are constructed, giving up picks is a really big deal, especially when you're picking somewhere in the 40-range with your second pick.

Back when qualifying offers were thrown out like candy and there were 10+ supplemental picks every season, it's wasn't such a big deal. Yeah, the Twins might lose a second round pick but they probably had at least one supplemental pick coming back from another player. That is no longer the case.

Yeah, you are wrong.


Twins GM Terry Ryan says his team would give up its 2014 second-round pick to sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer, 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson writes (on Twitter (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/393387457263050752)). The Twins' first-rounder, at No. 5 overall, is protected

SpiritofVodkaDave
10-25-2013, 09:38 AM
Ubaldo is the perfect target for the Twins, he is high risk, high reward, and if he pitches to his potential you basically get a 100 million dollar pitcher for about half the price.
I'd offer him 3/40 to start out with, and go up to 4/56 if nesc

Brock Beauchamp
10-25-2013, 09:55 AM
Yeah, you are wrong.

I'd love to be wrong. Still don't see it happening.

Siehbiscuit
10-25-2013, 10:08 AM
MLB Trade Rumors has him pegged for 3/$39. If the Twins truly had trouble getting FA to look at them seriously, then they need to make a "I will not get outbid"-type of offer. Something in the 4 year range and $16-18M will be what it takes to get him here. There is so much room in the budget, that even if a mistake were made and he is more of 4.50-5.00ERA guy, the Twins could survive. So much of the future is riding on prospects and they are cheap for most of the first 3-4 years. There is room in the budget, so let's get it done!

twinsfan34
10-25-2013, 11:18 AM
Yeah, you are wrong.

Seems more like a factual statement that it is enforced by MLB. And he used 'sacrifice'...and it wasn't exactly non-nonchalant.

And to the point of the previous poster, it's a lot more valuable pick than in previous years where compensatory picks were handed out like candy on Holloween. It's also looking like a very good draft.

But you are quoting Wolfson correctly...

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson)24 Oct (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/393387457263050752)
Terry Ryan confirmed to me that he would sacrifice his 2nd rd pick to sign a FA. Still seems like a long-shot. Maybe Ervin Santana. #mntwins (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mntwins&src=hash)


Per the ESPN1500 inteview (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/QA_with_Twins_GM_Terry_Ryan_on_plans_for_free_agen cy_and_other_topics102513):

Would you give up your 2nd round pick to sign a free-agent?
If he's good.
Really? That surprises me.
Sure, if he's good. Depends on who it is and longevity and age and all that stuff. I don't think there's a club that wouldn't give up a second-rounder to get quality back, and longevity.
That means you'll have to spend some money. As you know, the richest outside free-agent contract you've given out is 3-years/$21M to Willingham. If you sign a guy who has been tendered, you'll crush that contract. Prepared to do that?
Depends who it is. I have flexibility with payroll.


The rest of the interview is worth reading for other topics and overall context.

Brandon
10-25-2013, 11:57 AM
Cleveland went over budget last season. I dont see them offering a qualified offer. So we should be good to go without losing the draft pick. He is one of the pitchers I can see Minnesota signing.

mike wants wins
10-25-2013, 12:04 PM
I'm curious, but would you trade a 2nd round pick for a proven MLB starter if you could? If not, why not? I'm told that the Twins aren't good because it is hard to pick late in round 1.....and that often those players don't work out. If that is true, isn't it more true of 2nd round picks?

Why would you want the uncertainty of a 2nd round pick, that is years away, rather than the certainty of a proven MLB player?*

*I ask this in principle, not in this exact case.

Thrylos
10-25-2013, 12:04 PM
I think it's a stretch for Ryan to pay for any of these guys but I think it's a giant stretch to expect him to give up a draft pick as well. I just don't see him going after Ubaldo.

The Ryan who gave up 2 supplementary draft picks to re-sign Capps, would have no problem giving up a second rounder. On the other hand, I agree, I don't see him going after this guy.

kab21
10-25-2013, 12:05 PM
People make way too big of a deal out 2nd rd picks. Yes, it's nice to get another pick but I would trade an overwhelming majority of the picks (#20-75) the Twins have made in the last 7 years for a 3-4 years of a guy like Ubaldo.


Eades
Berrios
Bard
Melotakis
Chargois
Michael
Harrison
Boyd
Wimmers
Goodrum
Gibson
Bashore
Gutierrez
Hunt
Ladendorf
Revere

It's a deep draft but a majority of the picks in the second half of the first rd and second round are busts. The Twins can start building their rotation instead of getting a likely bust who would be 3-4 years away from contributing if he overcame the odds. Additionally the Twins have a stacked system. They need to start putting an MLB team together where they are adding prospects to a solid team instead of completely counting on prospects for the rebuild.

Thrylos
10-25-2013, 12:09 PM
Would you pay that for a 30-year-old who was an ace this season, but mostly a disaster in the two years preceding?

I would not mind paying an Ace $15-20 M a year, but 3.30 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 12-9 and only 188 IP do not an Ace make. Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Josť Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw are Aces this guy is not.

twinsfan34
10-25-2013, 01:28 PM
The Ryan who gave up 2 supplementary draft picks to re-sign Capps, would have no problem giving up a second rounder. On the other hand, I agree, I don't see him going after this guy.

Two?! Really?! I'm not even understanding why we lost one to sign out own guy...


Really hated that trade the day it was announced. And now, in retrospect, I should have an even more visceral reaction. A horrible, horrible, horrible trade.

twinsfan34
10-25-2013, 01:31 PM
People make way too big of a deal out 2nd rd picks. Yes, it's nice to get another pick but I would trade an overwhelming majority of the picks (#20-75) the Twins have made in the last 7 years for a 3-4 years of a guy like Ubaldo.



It's a deep draft but a majority of the picks in the second half of the first rd and second round are busts. The Twins can start building their rotation instead of getting a likely bust who would be 3-4 years away from contributing if he overcame the odds. Additionally the Twins have a stacked system. They need to start putting an MLB team together where they are adding prospects to a solid team instead of completely counting on prospects for the rebuild.

It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.

notoriousgod71
10-25-2013, 01:46 PM
It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.

The Twins haven't drafted, developed, and kept an above average player since Glen Perkins in 2004 (Garza traded after 1.5 years). I don't know why we would expect them to suddenly start producing guys year after year until something changes.

Brandon
10-25-2013, 02:21 PM
Also the best thing about someone like Ubaldo is the number of years required to sign him won't be too long. He will likely get a 3 or at most 4 year deal. The dollars won't be prohibitive with their budget regardless of how much he makes per season. I agree with the 3 year 39 million assesment. Maybe the Twins can tack on an option year with a 3 million buyout to increase the cash guarentee to get him signed.

Note: I am indifferent on who they sign this offseason as long as we are seeing progress towards the future (seeing our prospects advance) I don't care what they do this offseason in terms of quick fixes as i do not see us being competetive the next 2 seasons.

Winston Smith
10-25-2013, 03:14 PM
I think one of the Admin guys should put up a "best guess" thread before FA starts where everyone can predict what they think will be the biggest $$ and best signing this winter. Would be interesting to see who does the best.
Did anyone last fall think the biggest move last winter would be 2 yr @ 5m Kevin Corriea signing?

Seth Stohs
10-25-2013, 03:21 PM
I'd be willing to give up a second round pick for a top pitcher, as TR said, a guy with longevity. I just don't know that Ubaldo is a guy that I would do that for. As is pointed out above, he's not one of THOSE guys.

mike wants wins
10-25-2013, 03:42 PM
Who is more likely to be good, Jimenez, or a 2nd round pick? I mean, we pick apart the free agents like crazy, and seem to forget how few 2nd rounders even make the majors, let alone contribute something meaningful.

Willihammer
10-25-2013, 04:00 PM
Jimenez has front of the rotation stuff and is exactly the sort the Twins should target IMHO, he just needs to command it.

MichiganTwins
10-25-2013, 04:04 PM
What if we get two guys with qualifying offers? Can we lose more than 1 pick i.e. next year's pick?

USAFChief
10-25-2013, 04:46 PM
I like Jimenez way more than Hughes even if it costs a 2nd rnd pick. Way more. Hughes will never be a top of the rotation guy. Jimenez might.

jorgenswest
10-25-2013, 05:10 PM
It isn't just losing the pick. It is also losing a lot of draft cap dollars and flexibility.

No one can foresee how they might need those dollars next year.

It could be someone dropping to them and needing the flexibility to go over slot with their first pick and make it up on the second. It could be going under slot with the first pick and taking someone dropping to the second round. The Royals did something like this to sign their supplemental pick Manaea.

In the new draft context, you give up flexibility when you give up the pick. Teams were reluctant to do that last winter.

Shane Wahl
10-25-2013, 05:15 PM
3 years, $45 million.

jokin
10-25-2013, 05:28 PM
It isn't just losing the pick. It is also losing a lot of draft cap dollars and flexibility.

No one can foresee how they might need those dollars next year.

It could be someone dropping to them and needing the flexibility to go over slot with their first pick and make it up on the second. It could be going under slot with the first pick and taking someone dropping to the second round. The Royals did something like this to sign their supplemental pick Manaea.

In the new draft context, you give up flexibility when you give up the pick. Teams were reluctant to do that last winter.

I believe Mikewantswins already answered your concern:


Who is more likely to be good, Jimenez, or a 2nd round pick? I mean, we pick apart the free agents like crazy, and seem to forget how few 2nd rounders even make the majors, let alone contribute something meaningful.

Shane Wahl
10-25-2013, 05:41 PM
I would, without a moment's pause, give up the second round pick for Jimenez.

raindog
10-25-2013, 05:50 PM
I was against the idea of signing him at first, because of the draft pick and the very good chance he regresses. But Jesus...they have to take a chance at some point. There aren't a lot of good options out there.

jorgenswest
10-25-2013, 06:17 PM
I believe Mikewantswins already answered your concern:

Not at all...

While I agree with his statement about a second round pick, he only speaks to the second round pick as if having it is independent of all other picks.

The concern is about having fewer dollars in the draft. That impacts the first pick.

The context of the draft has changed.

In the old system, Manaea doesn't make it to the Royals. He is drafted by a larger market team that doesn't have a draft cap to worry about. In the new system, a team to could go under slot with their first pick in order to take a second pick falling due to their salary demands.

It could go the other direction also. If they lose those dollars, the Twins might have to pass on a player in the first round who they might have to go over slot. They won't have the flexibility to do so.

Thrylos
10-25-2013, 07:42 PM
Two?! Really?! I'm not even understanding why we lost one to sign out own guy...


Really hated that trade the day it was announced. And now, in retrospect, I should have an even more visceral reaction. A horrible, horrible, horrible trade.

That was after the trade. He was a class A (old agreement) free agent which meant that the Twins would get 2 picks if another team signed him...

jokin
10-25-2013, 08:25 PM
Not at all...

While I agree with his statement about a second round pick, he only speaks to the second round pick as if having it is independent of all other picks.

The concern is about having fewer dollars in the draft. That impacts the first pick.

The context of the draft has changed.

In the old system, Manaea doesn't make it to the Royals. He is drafted by a larger market team that doesn't have a draft cap to worry about. In the new system, a team to could go under slot with their first pick in order to take a second pick falling due to their salary demands.

It could go the other direction also. If they lose those dollars, the Twins might have to pass on a player in the first round who they might have to go over slot. They won't have the flexibility to do so.

Wouldn't this scenario make more sense with a team having a lower first round pick or a supplemental pick.... or is there a Manaea that is going to drop to #5 in the Second Round that you are aware of? If the Twins draft some lower echelon-talent like Hunter Dozier with their #5 pick, a lot of folks around here are going to pretty disappointed.

kab21
10-25-2013, 08:56 PM
It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.

This is kind of my point. It took 6 years for Tampa to turn it around. If the Twins can get a very good starter for nothing more than money and a prospect that is unlikely to turn out then they are on the road to being a good team faster. And there is nothing about this that means they won't continue to build the farm system.

Here's a thread where many people are prepared to trade someone as good as Dozier/Rosario plus another prospect for a pitcher similar to Jimenez. I would strongly prefer to give up a 2nd draft pick than an actual really good prospect.

snepp
10-25-2013, 09:37 PM
That was after the trade. He was a class A (old agreement) free agent which meant that the Twins would get 2 picks if another team signed him...


Capps wasn't a Type-A, he was a modified Type-B, only a single sandwich pick between the first two rounds.

zchrz
10-26-2013, 01:30 AM
This seems to be the kind of contract they should pursue. It won't take 5+ years so even if its an overpay it can be written off before the new crop of in house products needs to be paid. It would not be that prohibitive there is a lot of cap room and it shouldn't be significantly more than Morneau's contract was. They need to get some talent in here, I think it would be stupid to bring the prospects up to cut their teeth on another 90+ loss team. They don't have to hand out 100+ million dollar contracts left and right but they are going to have to gamble on free agency some. Good free agents generally get their markets value and it takes money to play, if they don't gamble they won't win anything. If they bet nothing and sign cheap, known, "reliable", low risk commodities (Corriea) or just go dumpster diving for rehabs (Pelfry) then the staff will continue to be what it is.

Zephrin
10-26-2013, 06:39 AM
Ubaldo is not my guy - especially at the prices being discussed. He is going to get paid for 2 ace-like 1/2 seasons, the first half of 2010 and the second half of 2013. (Remember 2010? Dude was 15-1 at the all-star break. He only went 4-7 the rest of the way. The first half of 2013 wasn't eye-opening either.)

Bold can be a good thing, but for me Ubaldo is more risky than bold at 4/$64. Something similar to The Freak's 2/$35 would bother me less.

jorgenswest
10-26-2013, 07:33 AM
I think Ubaldo will be looking for his last long large contract. He has to see this as buy high. I think he will take the best offer and it can be the Twins.

The risk with Ubaldo is that he is either very good or very bad. When he is bad, he can't be on the staff of a contending team. I don't think he is going to age into an innings eating league savvy veteran. If they sign him for 4, how much good Ubaldo do they get?

twinsfan34
10-26-2013, 08:23 AM
This is kind of my point. It took 6 years for Tampa to turn it around. If the Twins can get a very good starter for nothing more than money and a prospect that is unlikely to turn out then they are on the road to being a good team faster. And there is nothing about this that means they won't continue to build the farm system.

Here's a thread where many people are prepared to trade someone as good as Dozier/Rosario plus another prospect for a pitcher similar to Jimenez. I would strongly prefer to give up a 2nd draft pick than an actual really good prospect.

I can follow that logic.

Shane Wahl
10-27-2013, 02:59 PM
I can follow that logic.

I can too. I am confused by those wanting to trade prospects for certain pitchers when the equivalent pitchers are available for money that is readily available.

Paul Pleiss
10-28-2013, 04:46 AM
Mostly I want Ubaldo on the Twins so I can get a shirt that says "U-ballin w/ Ubaldo" or something to that extent, as long as it has "U-ballin" somewhere. I'd be quite pleased if the Twins signed Ubaldo. 4/64 seems solid, obviously I'd prefer to see a 2/3 year deal, even a 2/35 like Timmy. The Twins May have some pitching coming up through their system, and inking questionable "stars" to long term deals is something I'd avoid, however, the lack of high-minors pitching talent puts me squarely in the Ubaldo territory. Sign him. Give up the 2nd round draft pick.

Dave T
10-28-2013, 06:00 AM
I'd rather overpay for Jimenez than Correia.

Heimer
10-28-2013, 09:51 PM
Jimenez is close to the wrong side of thirty with his continue decrease of velocity, the twins might get two more good years out of him. Id rather try to get lucky in the second round and get a guy that can help us for TEN years.

But if the twins were expected to contend in two years, I would say yes.

kab21
10-29-2013, 08:20 PM
Jimenez is close to the wrong side of thirty with his continue decrease of velocity, the twins might get two more good years out of him. Id rather try to get lucky in the second round and get a guy that can help us for TEN years.

But if the twins were expected to contend in two years, I would say yes.

The Twins won't be held back by lack of prospects. They will be held back by never having enough effective MLB'ers to add prospects to. Ubaldo only costs money and a what likely amounts to a marginal prospect. Adding an above average arm is exactly what this team needs (now and 3 years from now).

I already showed draft results for the Twins (and the entire MLB) is really sketchy once you get close to the 2nd rd. And even if that pick turned out it will probably take 3-4 years to even make the majors.

I think you are also prematurely jumping the gun by saying that someone won't be effective at age 32.

Willihammer
02-08-2014, 10:15 PM
The Offseason Handbook (http://twinsdaily.com/2383-available-pre-order-2014-offseason-handbook.html) pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million

This would please everyone wouldn't it? Those of us who'd like to watch a better product would get a front of the rotation talent. Those concerned about the profitability of the product and breaking minor league talent into the rotation would have a starter coming off the books in each of the next 5 years. Everybody wins.

I guess there is the question of - would Ubaldo go for 4/64. At this point, I think most of us would be surprised if he could do better than that anywhere else.

Otwins
02-09-2014, 01:22 AM
I don't think he will get near 4/64. The teams that make the most sense to me are Toronto and the Yanks- I still do not see him as a fit for the Twins

oldguy10
02-09-2014, 06:41 AM
I agree 100% with Kab21's comment way back in October about adding the right pieces in MLB right now to augment the good prospects coming along. If management does not do that there is little or no success to look forward to in regards to moving up in the standings.