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Physics Guy
10-20-2013, 10:05 AM
The Twins need to fill the top two spots in their rotation for 2014. What are your thoughts about this possible rotation:

#1) Dan Haren - 3 yrs, $42M
#2) Ricky Nolasco - 4 yrs, $48M
#3) Samuel Deduno
#4) Kyle Gibson
#5) Kevin Correia

If Deduno isn't healthy we can bump Gibson and Correia up and put in Diamond, Worley, Albers, Meyer or May. Could the Twins be .500 with this rotation if they make no other changes to the team?

mike wants wins
10-20-2013, 10:13 AM
No other changes? No, the offense would still need help with that rotation, imo. They will be basically a black hole at SS, CF, 3B, and DH if nothing changes on offense.

I'd rather they sign Lincecum than Haren. I am not a Haren believer, frankly. I'd be ok with Nolasco.

Shane Wahl
10-20-2013, 10:23 AM
The problem is that Haren has now been fairly bad for two years in a row, and--other than a solid enough year this year--Nolasco has never been good outside of 2008.

I guess that "problem" could end up being a good thing it drives down value. Subtract one year and some millions and then it becomes more of a worthy gamble. Nolasco would amount to a Correia+ and Haren . . . is a mystery, but he isn't so old to never regain "an average Haren season," which is still good.

Haren at 2 years/$24 million and Nolasco at 3 years/$30 million.

gunnarthor
10-20-2013, 11:04 AM
I like Haren a lot but I think he's done. Multiple years for him wouldn't be a good idea. I think the Twins will go after Hughes and I think he'd be a good fit for TF. Their are a bunch of interesting pitchers that might be gotten on one or two year deals - Baker, Santana, maybe Lincecum etc - and the Twins will probably add one of those guys too.

Hughes
Correa
Gibson
1 yr deal guy
And I hope Meyer gets the last spot

Badsmerf
10-20-2013, 11:12 AM
My guess:

1. Pelfrey
2. Correia
3. Gibson
4. Worley
5. Josh Johnson- Torn here. It is pretty hard to predict at this point.

No way Deduno should start in the rotation. I don't think he ever sees the MLB again... well, this is the Twins rotation so I guess anything is possible. I really don't think Terry Ryan is going to improve this team very much in FA. I think Johnson is the most likely because of the local tie and that he needs to prove he is better than 2013. If this is the rotation, I would be ok with it.

My ideal rotation for 2014:

1. Josh Johnson
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Gibson
4. Correia
5. Pelfrey

If Meyer pitches well enough to consider bringing up before the trade deadline Johnson could be trade bait (if he pitches well enough). I'd rather have legit MLB arms waiting in the minors than guys you cross your fingers on. Plus, that rotation might be good enough to win some games while costing less than 30m. Add in Kendrys Morales to a moderate contract and see what happens. Sano, Rosario and possibly Meyer will all be adding talent at some point.

Physics Guy
10-20-2013, 12:02 PM
I like Haren a lot but I think he's done. Multiple years for him wouldn't be a good idea. I think the Twins will go after Hughes and I think he'd be a good fit for TF. Their are a bunch of interesting pitchers that might be gotten on one or two year deals - Baker, Santana, maybe Lincecum etc - and the Twins will probably add one of those guys too.

Hughes
Correa
Gibson
1 yr deal guy
And I hope Meyer gets the last spot

I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum (http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/physics-guy/4555-twins-2014-rotation.html)

Physics Guy
10-20-2013, 12:06 PM
Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

Badsmerf
10-20-2013, 01:30 PM
Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.
I think there is more than that, but that connection alone is better than nothing. I mean, anyone who has been here would want to come back right? He's kinda one of us.

kab21
10-20-2013, 01:43 PM
I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum (http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/physics-guy/4555-twins-2014-rotation.html)

The stats agree with you but 3/42 seems crazy for someone with mediocre stuff and 2 poor seasons. I could live with 2/20ish but not much more. I saw him pitch a few times this season. Early in the season he was throwing his 88mph fastball right down the center the of the plate (the 5.61 ERA). It was sad to watch. Later in the season he was hitting the edges better but I honestly have no idea how he gets 8 K/9. Nobody should be swinging and missing that much at his stuff.

pierre75275
10-20-2013, 01:57 PM
The rotation to start next year will probably be
Corria
Deduno
Gibson
Pelfry
Johnson/haren
I say Johnson/ Haren bc both will be cheap. One of those two will pry get released when Meyer gets promoted.
My wish list would be
Tanaka
Deduno
Gibson
Linsecom/kazmir
Corria.

pierre75275
10-20-2013, 01:58 PM
I dont believe Haren is worth the money nor johnson either. I would view both has reclamation 1 yr projects with good upside.

Winston Smith
10-20-2013, 02:22 PM
Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.
I read that his brother lives in the cities and is a season ticket holder. Must be true if somebody wrote it.

Kwak
10-20-2013, 02:45 PM
.500 season is a fantasy. 76-86 would be a huge improvement, this team lacks more than just starting pitching.

Badsmerf
10-20-2013, 03:19 PM
.500 season is a fantasy. 76-86 would be a huge improvement, this team lacks more than just starting pitching.
Adding Lincecum and Johnson would significantly help. Someone like Morales would be a nice stop-gap at 1b. Plus, it would allow you to play Pinto every time a lefty is on the mound. Regardless if Doumit is kept, I think Pinto should be with the Twins as the primary back-up.

Those guys with a full season of Gibson, increased production from Arcia and not a black-hole in CF can add to 16 more wins. Its all hypothetical, but adding a little talent in the offseason helps win games.

mike wants wins
10-20-2013, 05:11 PM
The fangraphs article on crowd sourcing Harens contract is instructive.....IMO.

mnfireman
10-20-2013, 05:55 PM
With the payroll that is coming off the books the team should push hard towards Tanaka and Yoon, as well as Haren, Johnson, Lincecum, Santana, Kuroda, & Garza....basically chase 'em all. If they get 2 or 3, plug and play and fill in the rest with whoever has the best spring. If they get 0, bring up the kids and play for the future! They should also pursue Choo, Ellsbury, Napoli, Morales, etc. and see who will come and play!

Lefty74
10-20-2013, 06:02 PM
No other changes? No, the offense would still need help with that rotation, imo. They will be basically a black hole at SS, CF, 3B, and DH if nothing changes on offense.

I'd rather they sign Lincecum than Haren. I am not a Haren believer, frankly. I'd be ok with Nolasco.


I think we'd be better off finding a couple of up and coming pitchers vs. those on the back side of their careers. Both Haren and Lincecom are quickly deteriorating, but if I had to choose 1 I like Haren better.

ashburyjohn
10-20-2013, 07:17 PM
I read that his brother lives in the cities and is a season ticket holder. Must be true if somebody wrote it.

5873

darin617
10-20-2013, 08:57 PM
Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

I believe he was born in Minnesota but moved to Oklahoma when he was 5.

Major Leauge Ready
10-20-2013, 09:52 PM
There is is a lot of support here based on names. In other words, the guy used to be good. No way would I touch Lincecum if he cost a draft pick. However, I doubt SF makes a qualifying offer. Over th epast two years he is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA. Yes, I know his FIP is lower but his FIP has always been signiifcantly lower than his ERA so his FIP does not predict he is unlucky unless he has always been unlucky.

Johnson is an interesting high risk/reward but he should be plan-B. I am hoping for two of Tanaka, Kazmir, and Hughes. (in that order) Ervin Santana, Jimenez, Nolasco, and Harden are all decent options but they all make me nervous.

nicksaviking
10-20-2013, 10:19 PM
I think we'd be better off finding a couple of up and coming pitchers vs. those on the back side of their careers. Both Haren and Lincecom are quickly deteriorating, but if I had to choose 1 I like Haren better.

Sure but everyone wants those kinds of pitchers, that's why they get nine figure contracts. I'd give Haren a shot, but I doubt he gets three years from any team. Lincecum also probably only gets a two year deal, not sure I want to give up a draft pick for the kind of pitcher whose question marks will likely limit him to a short term deal though.

#24 Sano
10-20-2013, 10:30 PM
My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
now for the rotation
1.Hughes
2.Deduno
3.Corriea
4.Pelfrey
5.Gibson or Worley
Stat predictions
Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
Deduno- 9-6 3.71
Corriea- 7-8 4.31
Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
Gibson- 6-9 4.23
Worley- 9-9 3.92
standings prediction
71-91 5th ALC
Now let's se what we have right now
1.Deduno
2.Corriea
3.Gibson
4.Worley
5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
thats pathetic
standing prediction
57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
JK
Now for what we should do...
Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
3B Trevor Plouffe
3B Travis Harrison
C Matt Koch
SP Jose Berrios
2B Brian Dozier
In return...
SP Homer Bailey
2B Brandon Phillips
Starting lineup
1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2.Brandon Phillips 2B
3.Joe Mauer 1B
4.Josh Willingham DH
5.Miguel Sano 3B
6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
7.Ryan Doumit RF
8.Josmil Pinto C
9.Yunel Escobar SS
Grade B-
Bench:
1B Chris Collabello
C Chris Hermann
SS Eduardo Escobar
CF Alex Pressly
Grade C
Bullpen
LRP:Brian Duensing
MRP:Ryan Pressly
MPR:Casey Fien
MPR:Duke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
MRP:Caleb Thielbar
SU:Jared Burton
CP:Glen Perkins
Grade: B+
Rotation:
1.Ervin Santana
2.Masahiro Tanaka
3.Homer Bailey
4.Samuel Deduno
5. Kevin Correia
Grade: B
Predictions
Santana: 14-8 3.21
Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
Bailey: 13-9 3.54
Deduno: 12-10 3.76
Correia: 9-8 3.91
Standings
89-73 2nd ALC
2nd Wild Card spot
Total team grade: B
In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Meyer SP
Trevor May SP
Danny Santana SS

Erock
10-20-2013, 11:45 PM
I think Phil Hughes is a great fit and could be a solid #3 starter for the Twins. I want to bring him in and then take a risk on someone with upside like Josh Johnson or Tim Lincecum. Bring in a 3rd guy like Pelfrey or Nolasco and build your rotation around them. Yoon is an intriguing option, but I'm not giving him anything like 3/21 that I've seen some people mention. If he can be brought in on a smaller contract with the idea that he might start in AAA or be a bullpen option, I would be all for it.

Hughes, Johnson, Pelfrey, Yoon would vastly improve the rotation and give us plenty of options. It won't win us a championship, but it's a lot better than what we have and can bring us toward that .500 mark as our team grows with our top prospects.

Shane Wahl
10-20-2013, 11:50 PM
My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
now for the rotation
1.Hughes
2.Deduno
3.Corriea
4.Pelfrey
5.Gibson or Worley
Stat predictions
Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
Deduno- 9-6 3.71
Corriea- 7-8 4.31
Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
Gibson- 6-9 4.23
Worley- 9-9 3.92
standings prediction
71-91 5th ALC
Now let's se what we have right now
1.Deduno
2.Corriea
3.Gibson
4.Worley
5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
thats pathetic
standing prediction
57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
JK
Now for what we should do...
Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
3B Trevor Plouffe
3B Travis Harrison
C Matt Koch
SP Jose Berrios
2B Brian Dozier
In return...
SP Homer Bailey
2B Brandon Phillips
Starting lineup
1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2.Brandon Phillips 2B
3.Joe Mauer 1B
4.Josh Willingham DH
5.Miguel Sano 3B
6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
7.Ryan Doumit RF
8.Josmil Pinto C
9.Yunel Escobar SS
Grade B-
Bench:
1B Chris Collabello
C Chris Hermann
SS Eduardo Escobar
CF Alex Pressly
Grade C
Bullpen
LRP:Brian Duensing
MRP:Ryan Pressly
MPR:Casey Fien
MPR:Duke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
MRP:Caleb Thielbar
SU:Jared Burton
CP:Glen Perkins
Grade: B+
Rotation:
1.Ervin Santana
2.Masahiro Tanaka
3.Homer Bailey
4.Samuel Deduno
5. Kevin Correia
Grade: B
Predictions
Santana: 14-8 3.21
Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
Bailey: 13-9 3.54
Deduno: 12-10 3.76
Correia: 9-8 3.91
Standings
89-73 2nd ALC
2nd Wild Card spot
Total team grade: B
In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Meyer SP
Trevor May SP
Danny Santana SS

Well, that was ambitious . . .

As soon as the Offseason GM Handbook comes out, people will be posting "offseason blueprints" left and right here. I recommend that you organize this with more detail and post again about it about two weeks!

Shane Wahl
10-20-2013, 11:55 PM
I will bet that the Twins sign Phil Hughes and re-sign Mike Pelfrey.
They should make Hughes the second signing and never consider Mike Pelfrey.

Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, to me, are realistic targets at the very top of what the Twins would ever spend.

Nolasco, Hughes, Linecum, and so forth, are in the "The Twins will go after one of these guys and if they get him will make the claim that they went out and spent big money."

freshinthehouse
10-21-2013, 12:11 AM
Here's what I hope happens.

1. Tanaka
2. Pelfrey (or some other cheap one year option)
3. Corria
4. Gibson
5. Diamond/Pelfrey/Duduno or some other placeholder until Meyer is ready

Take our lumps, get another top 5 pick, sign a quality arm in 2015, and let the new era begin.

jokin
10-21-2013, 12:13 AM
Well, that was ambitious . . .

As soon as the Offseason GM Handbook comes out, people will be posting "offseason blueprints" left and right here. I recommend that you organize this with more detail and post again about it about two weeks!

I like his work....another one of us who thinks it's time to take a chance on Yunel Escobar @ SS and actually put a real CF back out on the field in Ellsbury, AND....we have a much more realistic chance on getting this International and this FA than we do with say, Tanaka and/or Granderson.

glunn
10-21-2013, 01:59 AM
My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
now for the rotation
1.Hughes
2.Deduno
3.Corriea
4.Pelfrey
5.Gibson or Worley
Stat predictions
Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
Deduno- 9-6 3.71
Corriea- 7-8 4.31
Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
Gibson- 6-9 4.23
Worley- 9-9 3.92
standings prediction
71-91 5th ALC
Now let's se what we have right now
1.Deduno
2.Corriea
3.Gibson
4.Worley
5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
thats pathetic
standing prediction
57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
JK
Now for what we should do...
Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
3B Trevor Plouffe
3B Travis Harrison
C Matt Koch
SP Jose Berrios
2B Brian Dozier
In return...
SP Homer Bailey
2B Brandon Phillips
Starting lineup
1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2.Brandon Phillips 2B
3.Joe Mauer 1B
4.Josh Willingham DH
5.Miguel Sano 3B
6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
7.Ryan Doumit RF
8.Josmil Pinto C
9.Yunel Escobar SS
Grade B-
Bench:
1B Chris Collabello
C Chris Hermann
SS Eduardo Escobar
CF Alex Pressly
Grade C
Bullpen
LRP:Brian Duensing
MRP:Ryan Pressly
MPR:Casey Fien
MPR:Duke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
MRP:Caleb Thielbar
SU:Jared Burton
CP:Glen Perkins
Grade: B+
Rotation:
1.Ervin Santana
2.Masahiro Tanaka
3.Homer Bailey
4.Samuel Deduno
5. Kevin Correia
Grade: B
Predictions
Santana: 14-8 3.21
Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
Bailey: 13-9 3.54
Deduno: 12-10 3.76
Correia: 9-8 3.91
Standings
89-73 2nd ALC
2nd Wild Card spot
Total team grade: B
In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Meyer SP
Trevor May SP
Danny Santana SS

Interesting first post rookie. Lots to think about.

Major Leauge Ready
10-21-2013, 07:31 AM
I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum (http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/physics-guy/4555-twins-2014-rotation.html)

42M (14M/yr) for a guy who posted a WAR of 1.3 is not what I would call a bargain. He would be 36 at the end of the proposed contract. Great pitcher in his prime but we have way too many question marks already fo this acqusition to make sense IMO. 2 years and 22M would be a different story.

Brandon
10-21-2013, 07:54 AM
In terms of immediate impact, I can see the Twins with Pelfry and one of Ubaldo Jimenez, Kazmir, Hughes, Baker, and the guy who used to be Fausto Carmona. That would be cool if the Twins signed Yoon too to compete for the 5th starter. I think the Twins will not want more than 3 years on any contract as there is a wave of prospects coming. Unless the Twins somehow end up with Tanaka, which I do not see happening. I do see the Twins signing some more international prospects over the winter who can pitch. I also see the Twins going after pitchers in next years draft so we will soon have an embarrassment of riches in SP in the minors.

Oldgoat_MN
10-21-2013, 08:17 AM
Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

I'm a software consultant in the Twin Cities. My oldest account is a place I love to go work, for any number of reasons. Anyway, one of Josh's brothers works there.

We had one time a few years ago when we talked Josh & baseball. We pretty much never work together, but the president of the company knows what a baseball fan I am and got us to sit down together.
He is clearly proud of his brother, happy for his success. We talked about Dan Uggla being traded to Atlanta. He said Josh and the other young players then were upset because Dan was such a great guy and very helpful to all the young guys. (fit with other things I've read about Uggla)
So, I don't know if he has season tix. I know he would go see the Brewers or the Cubs if the Marlins were rolling through. Perfect storm if Josh was pitching in both Milwaukee & Chicago.

I don't know if Josh has more family here, though I very much had that impression at the time. It wasn't an interview.

Josh's brother is a good guy. So there.

nicksaviking
10-21-2013, 08:51 AM
The Twins have enough money to spend that I'd like them to do what the Cubs did last year. Go out right away and overpay for a guy. Set the bar high and let the other teams curse the Twins for doing so.

It would also be a sign to all free agents that the Twins are serious which would probably make other guys more willing to come, particularly the few bargains that are left hanging at the end of free agency for what ever reason.

Siehbiscuit
10-21-2013, 10:03 AM
One area in its philosophy that I will guarantee that the Twins will not step too far away from is pitchers durability. Pelfrey and Pavano are the only outliers from this philosophy, but the Twins thought they might catch lightning in a bottle and the original contracts were very short, I believe 1-year deals. I can see the Twins evaluating the FA pitchers like this, only based on their ability to "eat" innings.

Good gambles:
Masahiro Tanaka
Ervin Santana
Ubaldo Jimenez
Phil Hughes
Tim Lincecum (Twins won't go here due to price, not health)

Poor gambles:
Scott Kazmir (very risky gamble. Twins will NOT go here).
Dan Haren
Josh Johnson

Personally, I would love to see the Twins acquire these pitchers, in this order:
Tier 1
1. Tanaka (he's mid-20's and has is entering his prime)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (his "stuff" is the best on the market)
3. Ervin Santana (not an ace, but provides stability)
Tier 2
1. Phil Hughes (Very talented and still only 27)
2. Josh Johnson (Very talented, but needs to stay healthy. Worth a gamble)
3. Dan Haren (Proven pitcher that has struggled. Great buy-low candidate. Max of 2-yrs, may have to stretch it to 3, because we are the Twins).

ashburyjohn
10-21-2013, 11:28 AM
Go out right away and overpay for a guy.

They did that last off-season. Correia.

diehardtwinsfan
10-21-2013, 11:38 AM
HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.

kab21
10-21-2013, 12:50 PM
HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.

Usually guys looking for this type of deal want to be on a playoff contender for the extra exposure. Like Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren.

nicksaviking
10-21-2013, 12:59 PM
They did that last off-season. Correia.

He didn't sign until the second week of December, and because the Twins signed him neither early nor late, they were FORCED to overpay him. The Cubs went out and set the tone for the off season by being quick to sign Baker and Feldman.

I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.

nicksaviking
10-21-2013, 01:04 PM
HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.

I'm in the same boat, but I didn't think any club would give hiim more than two years regardless of what Lincecum wanted. Now when he gets a qualifying offer and insists on one year he looks even worse. Who wants to give up the 2nd round pick for one season of Lincecum in a Twins uniform in 2014?

ThePuck
10-21-2013, 01:52 PM
He didn't sign until the second week of December, and because the Twins signed him neither early nor late, they were FORCED to overpay him. The Cubs went out and set the tone for the off season by being quick to sign Baker and Feldman.

I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.

Wasn't it Correia Ryan was talking about when he said he left money on the table? If we believe that, and someone else was willing to pay him even more, doesn't that mean Correia wasn't overpaid? :-)

Physics Guy
10-21-2013, 02:10 PM
I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.

I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship.

I originally wrote a blog that was the basis for starting this thread. My guidelines were to propose a rotation that was feasible, yet more aggressive than the Twins have been in the past. I was making an assumption that the Twins might spend $25-30M in free agency. I've seen many posts that are pushing for Tanaka and a few for Santana. I just don't see the Twins going big enough for Tanaka. Both the posting fee and the eventual contract will most likely be each be more than double what is the most of any FA contract the Twins have given out ($21M for Willingham). As for Ervin Santana, I can't see Ryan giving up a 2nd rounder to sign him if indeed the Royals do give him the qualifying offer. I sincerely hope I am wrong about both, as I would be happy for the Twins to have either player. I just don't feel either is likely.

JustinCB
10-21-2013, 02:48 PM
Personally, I would love to see the Twins acquire these pitchers, in this order:
Tier 1
1. Tanaka (he's mid-20's and has is entering his prime)



Tanaka is already being perceived as the best available FA pitcher this off season. Somebody is going to outspend the Twins.

#24 Sano
10-21-2013, 03:40 PM
I know this thread is about SP but we don't need a 1B.

We have Mauer there. It doesn't take a genius to figure out he's the face of the twins, we want him safe and healthy, look to have him at 1st this season. He has a great bat in the lineup and we prefer to have him in the lineup more. Now that we have Pinto up we should look to make Mauer into a full time 1st Basemen. He could move back to catch in desperate situations like if Pinto, Hermann and Doumit get injured.

mike wants wins
10-21-2013, 03:51 PM
I agree, Tanaka is a pipe dream at this point. The posting fee does not count against the soft cap, so why would we expect not to be outbid? I've stopped even considering him an option in my hopes for the offseason.

Major Leauge Ready
10-21-2013, 04:03 PM
I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship.


You may very well be correct that 2/20-22M will not get it done. It's a real crap shoot. The splits you put are an attention grabber. Should we believe he will back to the form he was in his prime or is he an aging SP that will continue to decline? The latter is more likely.

Let's say he matches his production for the total 2013 season and falls off in 2015 and then a little more in 2016 as you might expect from an aging SP. His war was 1.5 in 2013 and his ERA was 4.67. If he performs like he did the last 1/2 of the season it would be a great signing. If his production matches the year as a whole we will wishing we had the payroll space back in 2015 & 2016. If he slides at all, the same people calling for aggression just might be cursing Ryan up and down.

diehardtwinsfan
10-21-2013, 04:32 PM
I'm in the same boat, but I didn't think any club would give hiim more than two years regardless of what Lincecum wanted. Now when he gets a qualifying offer and insists on one year he looks even worse. Who wants to give up the 2nd round pick for one season of Lincecum in a Twins uniform in 2014?

Has SF come out and said they are giving him a QO? I honestly don't see it. He certainly hasn't been 14M good for a couple years now, and if SF wants to pay him that much, and he wants a short term deal, I see nothing preventing him from accepting it, sans perhaps him asking for an agreement not to do the same next year. I agree with you here, he's going to have a tough time finding work if a 2nd round pick is being added to the discussion.

mike wants wins
10-21-2013, 04:38 PM
I agree, I don't see SF offering the QO. I also agree, giving up a pick will reduce the demand significantly.

diehardtwinsfan
10-21-2013, 04:43 PM
I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship.

I originally wrote a blog that was the basis for starting this thread. My guidelines were to propose a rotation that was feasible, yet more aggressive than the Twins have been in the past. I was making an assumption that the Twins might spend $25-30M in free agency. I've seen many posts that are pushing for Tanaka and a few for Santana. I just don't see the Twins going big enough for Tanaka. Both the posting fee and the eventual contract will most likely be each be more than double what is the most of any FA contract the Twins have given out ($21M for Willingham). As for Ervin Santana, I can't see Ryan giving up a 2nd rounder to sign him if indeed the Royals do give him the qualifying offer. I sincerely hope I am wrong about both, as I would be happy for the Twins to have either player. I just don't feel either is likely.

I'll bite. I think Tanaka could be fit (whether they spend the money is a different story). They have 40 million or something like that they could spend.

Tanaka (5/50 with option plus a 50M posting fee). That comes out to 20M/year
Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.
Gibson
Worley
Correia.

That's 32.5M being spent to massively upgrade the rotation. I suspect Gibson will have a much better season and KC is well... KC. Worley, KC, or Gibson likely finds themselves being replaced by Meyer, May, and/or Darnell at one point in the near future.

You could substitute Hughes for Johnson or Lincicum, though both of them are going to be 1 or 2 year deals for a lot less cash. I'm not excited about Haren at all. I doubt Garza will want to return, and maybe I'm a bit queasy, but I think Santana's contract is one someone will be regretting quickly. Personally, I wouldn't give up a second round pick for anyone. In a deep draft, that's still a high enough pick to bring home an impact player. We can start talking about that when they in the plug a few holes phase.

ThePuck
10-21-2013, 04:49 PM
Why would we consider Tanaka's posting fee as part of payroll from 2014-18?

Major Leauge Ready
10-21-2013, 05:04 PM
Why would we consider Tanaka's posting fee as part of payroll from 2014-18?

I am not sure how the IRS would interpret a posting fee but the Twins can't just recognize it in whatever manner they elect. My educated guess is that GAAP would dictate the expense be recognized over the life of the asset. In this case, the term of the contract.

Thrylos
10-21-2013, 05:32 PM
They did that last off-season. Correia.

And the season before last: Capps
And the season before that: Pavano
And the season before that: Blackburn

ThePuck
10-21-2013, 05:39 PM
I am not sure how the IRS would interpret a posting fee but the Twins can't just recognize it in whatever manner they elect. My educated guess is that GAAP would dictate the expense be recognized over the life of the asset. In this case, the term of the contract.

It's my understanding that the money for the posting fee doesn't go towards payroll in regards to luxury tax (read that in an article about Yankees pursuing Tanaka and how it isn't included)

New York Yankees begin organizational meetings | yankees.com: News (http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/nyy/new-york-yankees-begin-organizational-meetings?ymd=20131021&content_id=63204662&vkey=news_nyy)

'The Yankees' interest in Tanaka is helped by the fact that the posting fee, which is likely to surpass the $51.7 million that Texas paid to negotiate with Darvish in January 2012, would not count against the luxury tax. '

So, knowing that, not not sure why we'd include it as part of payroll for the next five years either. Seems we have some money left over from payroll this year to at least help the fee needed if we were going to go that route.

Kwak
10-21-2013, 05:53 PM
Why on earth should we care about the accounting of a posting fee? The owner says "SPEND"--let's sit back back, wait, and find out how serious is this directive.

Physics Guy
10-21-2013, 06:00 PM
I'll bite. I think Tanaka could be fit (whether they spend the money is a different story). They have 40 million or something like that they could spend.

Tanaka (5/50 with option plus a 50M posting fee). That comes out to 20M/year
Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.
Gibson
Worley
Correia.

That's 32.5M being spent to massively upgrade the rotation. I suspect Gibson will have a much better season and KC is well... KC. Worley, KC, or Gibson likely finds themselves being replaced by Meyer, May, and/or Darnell at one point in the near future.

You could substitute Hughes for Johnson or Lincicum, though both of them are going to be 1 or 2 year deals for a lot less cash. I'm not excited about Haren at all. I doubt Garza will want to return, and maybe I'm a bit queasy, but I think Santana's contract is one someone will be regretting quickly. Personally, I wouldn't give up a second round pick for anyone. In a deep draft, that's still a high enough pick to bring home an impact player. We can start talking about that when they in the plug a few holes phase.

I don't dispute that the Twins can afford Tanaka. I just think Ryan will have difficulties finding the nerve to throw $100M at anyone. I think he may struggle to give a pitcher $10M+ per year, much less $20M (and yes I do realize not all of it goes to the pitcher).

#24 Sano
10-21-2013, 07:02 PM
I think he may struggle to give a pitcher $10M+ per year, much less $20M (and yes I do realize not all of it goes to the pitcher).[/QUOTE]

Tanaka will most likly not be 20mil, due to the fact his comparison (Yu Darvish) got only 9.5 mil per year. Of course though with the success of Darvish will help bring the value higher priced maybe 11-16mil at highest, but there are the dodgers who have so much money it's falling out of there pockets they would be the team to hand him 20mil.

ThePuck
10-21-2013, 07:19 PM
Why on earth should we care about the accounting of a posting fee? The owner says "SPEND"--let's sit back back, wait, and find out how serious is this directive.

We might care because if the team actually decides to spend the percentage on payroll they normally would, as explained by Jim Pohlad, and the posting fee gets spread out on payroll over the next 5 years, it means less talent to be able to get.

ChuckPaine
10-21-2013, 07:24 PM
Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.


There is no way that Hughes is worth 12.5M a year, try more like 6M a year

Major Leauge Ready
10-21-2013, 07:25 PM
It's my understanding that the money for the posting fee doesn't go towards payroll in regards to luxury tax (read that in an article about Yankees pursuing Tanaka and how it isn't included)

New York Yankees begin organizational meetings | yankees.com: News (http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/nyy/new-york-yankees-begin-organizational-meetings?ymd=20131021&content_id=63204662&vkey=news_nyy)

'The Yankees' interest in Tanaka is helped by the fact that the posting fee, which is likely to surpass the $51.7 million that Texas paid to negotiate with Darvish in January 2012, would not count against the luxury tax. '

So, knowing that, not not sure why we'd include it as part of payroll for the next five years either. Seems we have some money left over from payroll this year to at least help the fee needed if we were going to go that route.

Puck,

The fact that MLB does not count posting fees against the luxury tax is an entirely separate matter. The expense does not go away. It is payroll expense. Fans might want to ignore it as if it does not count but the Twins and any other business is not going to pretend it did not happen. There could be a question as to when it is recognized but as I wrote earlier, there are IRS requirements where this is concerned.

If it were allowed, and they wanted to recognize the expense this year, the total posting fee and salary would be attributed to 2013 expense. In other words, signing Tanaka and recognizing the posting fee this year would probably require the entire 2013 budget. That would not be the worst move long-term. Sign Tanaka and resign Pelfrey and look forward to having substantial budget in 2015 to continue building. It would give us an extra 8-10M/year over the rest of the Tanaka contract to build a team. I just don't think they can do it that way.

MinnesotaMike
10-21-2013, 08:04 PM
I think people are way off the mark when thinking about possible starters for next year. I can't see us signing anyone but I do think they will add through trades. Guys I think would be available would be Trevor Cahill in Arizona with guys like Bradley and Skaggs ready next year. Maybe a guy like Erasmo Ramirez in Seattle with walker, hultzen and Paxton ready. Maybe Brett Anderson in Oakland. Whoever it is I think will be a player no one is really talking about right now.

diehardtwinsfan
10-21-2013, 08:21 PM
I am not sure how the IRS would interpret a posting fee but the Twins can't just recognize it in whatever manner they elect. My educated guess is that GAAP would dictate the expense be recognized over the life of the asset. In this case, the term of the contract.

I'm not an accountant, but the Twins could choose to amortize this out or recognize it as a 1 time hit. Companies do this all the time.. I'd add that it really doesn't matter how it shows on the books, it matters who the Twins want to allocate it towards payroll. The posting fee may be amortized out over the life of the contract for tax purposes, but since they didn't spend the allocated payroll in 2013, they might choose to privately count it as last year's money.

diehardtwinsfan
10-21-2013, 08:24 PM
There is no way that Hughes is worth 12.5M a year, try more like 6M a year

I hope you are right, but he's getting a 3 or 4 year deal, it won't be for Corriea money.

FSP
10-21-2013, 08:33 PM
MLR,

You seem to have dealt with some of this payroll stuff before so maybe you could explain why both the posting fee and the contract have to be considered over the life of the contract because I certainly don't get it. The posting fee is a one time payment to a team in Japan, the contract is a yearly payment to the player. They are payed to different entities, for different reasons, over differing amounts of time, and possibly out of different accounts, so why would they both be tied to the length of the contract in the eyes of the IRS.

Physics Guy
10-21-2013, 09:24 PM
Tanaka will most likly not be 20mil, due to the fact his comparison (Yu Darvish) got only 9.5 mil per year. Of course though with the success of Darvish will help bring the value higher priced maybe 11-16mil at highest, but there are the dodgers who have so much money it's falling out of there pockets they would be the team to hand him 20mil.

You are right in that Tanaka will not personally get $20M per season, but the Twins would most likely have to pay that out. ($50M posting to team + $50M/5yr contract as an estimate). Rangers paid just over $50M posting fee and $60M/6 yr contract. The fact that only the player contract goes against the cap does not diminish the fact that the Twins will most likely view the entire amount in their budget.

Major Leauge Ready
10-21-2013, 09:38 PM
MLR,

You seem to have dealt with some of this payroll stuff before so maybe you could explain why both the posting fee and the contract have to be considered over the life of the contract because I certainly don't get it. The posting fee is a one time payment to a team in Japan, the contract is a yearly payment to the player. They are payed to different entities, for different reasons, over differing amounts of time, and possibly out of different accounts, so why would they both be tied to the length of the contract in the eyes of the IRS.

I am not a tax specialist either. This type of thing comes up from time to time in the consulting I do and a tax specialist is consulted. However, I can tell you that generally accepted accounting princples (GAAP) require that expense recognition match the benefit period or revenue generation. In this case I think it is very clear that the benefit period is over the life of the contract. You can Google "GAAP matching principle" or "GAAP expense recognition". I copied the section below from an internet search on the subject.

Matching Principle
Special consideration must be given to how revenues and expenses are related. Recall that an expense is the using up of an economic resource to generate a product or service. Those products and services will later be sold and recognized as revenue. GAAP has established a special rule for this relationship known as the matching principle. The matching principle requires that expenses must be recognized in the same period as the related revenues.

Trevor0333
10-21-2013, 10:33 PM
Tanaka is not happening, the Yankees are determined to snag him & I believe the posting/bid fees dont apply to the payroll as they are determined to stay under 189M/year & retaining Cano.

The Twins should be looking at signing 1 SP like Colby Lewis & trading for a guy who is in the last year of their deal and hopefully they can get him without giving up a big time prospect.

Bailey, Lester, Anderson... etc

nicksaviking
10-22-2013, 10:10 AM
Has SF come out and said they are giving him a QO? I honestly don't see it. He certainly hasn't been 14M good for a couple years now, and if SF wants to pay him that much, and he wants a short term deal, I see nothing preventing him from accepting it, sans perhaps him asking for an agreement not to do the same next year. I agree with you here, he's going to have a tough time finding work if a 2nd round pick is being added to the discussion.

Jon Heyman says they will give him the qualifying offer:

Giants to make qualifying offers to Pence, Lincecum; they won't accept - CBSSports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/23752695/giants-to-make-qualifying-offers-to-pence-lincecum-they-wont-accept)

Obviously he could be wrong, but he usually has a pretty good feel for this stuff.

nicksaviking
10-22-2013, 10:13 AM
There is no way that Hughes is worth 12.5M a year, try more like 6M a year

Clearly, but since when are free agent pitchers paid what they are worth? I think he gets less than 12.5M per year but it will be much higher than 6M I suspect.

If you want pitching, you have to overpay or develop it yourself. It's just the rules of the game, and unfortunately the Twins aren't able to develop it themselves.

Physics Guy
10-22-2013, 10:14 AM
Tanaka is not happening, the Yankees are determined to snag him & I believe the posting/bid fees dont apply to the payroll as they are determined to stay under 189M/year & retaining Cano.

The Twins should be looking at signing 1 SP like Colby Lewis & trading for a guy who is in the last year of their deal and hopefully they can get him without giving up a big time prospect.

Bailey, Lester, Anderson... etc

I would be more than fine with replacing one of the FA signings with Bailey, contingent on him signing an extension. I doubt Boston lets Lester go. He is their #1 pitcher and they can afford to keep him. Anderson is a good pitcher, but his injury history is not good. If you can get him on the cheap, fine.

JB_Iowa
10-22-2013, 10:43 AM
We might care because if the team actually decides to spend the percentage on payroll they normally would, as explained by Jim Pohlad, and the posting fee gets spread out on payroll over the next 5 years, it means less talent to be able to get.

It would seem to me that they could recognize that the quality of their product this year was abysmal and that they had a cost savings given actual payroll versus their "52%".

By using those cost savings up front, it would reduce any amount that might need to be spread out over the next few years.

Ultima Ratio
10-22-2013, 01:23 PM
Not so bold prediction:

The only FA signed this winter will be Pelfrey.

Ergo:

Correia, Pelfrey, Deduno, Gibson, Worley

This sadly but likely will be the rotation.

Shane Wahl
10-22-2013, 02:20 PM
Somebody should probably compile a list of the mlbtr predictions for starting pitching FAs. I don't think they have done one for Lincecum or Hughes yet, however. I know they have done one for Jimenez, Feldman, Kazmir, Hernandez (Carmona), Arroyo, and a few others.

Oldgoat_MN
10-22-2013, 03:48 PM
Last 3 years
Player A: 411.2 IP, WHIPs of 1.487, 1.265, 1.455, bWARs -0.1, 1.9, -0.7, total: 1.1
Player B: 510.1 IP, WHIPS of 1.390, 1.298, 1.419, bWARs 0.1, 0.2, 1.6, total: 1.9

Player A: 2013 FIP 4.50, xFIP 4.39 (Fangraphs)
Player B: 2013 FIP 4.40, xFIP 4.24

Player A is Phil Hughes.
Player B is Kevin Correia.

We already have one of those.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-22-2013, 04:44 PM
1. Ubaldo Jimenez, 4 years 60 million
2. Scott Kazmir, 2 years 11 million
3. Samuel Deduno, -
4. Kevin Correia, -
5. Josh Johnson, 1 year 6.5 million


Gibson in the wings to replace who struggles (and I'm sure one these guys will).

Oldgoat_MN
10-22-2013, 05:06 PM
1. Ubaldo Jimenez, 4 years 60 million
2. Scott Kazmir, 2 years 11 million
3. Samuel Deduno, -
4. Kevin Correia, -
5. Josh Johnson, 1 year 6.5 million


Gibson in the wings to replace who struggles (and I'm sure one these guys will).

I think you are being optimistic about Jimenez and Kazmir. People keep saying it's a pretty thin FA market this year.

But I sure like the pitchers you've selected!

tmerrickkeller
10-22-2013, 05:18 PM
The biggest PR splash would be Tanaka, and in a way, the lowest risk given his age and incredible track record. I posted this elsewhere (but in an old thread) but I think the math necessary to sign him does not take him out of the Twins' equation. You determine what you would be willing to pay to him as a free agent (and my suggestion is that is 10 years/$150 million because this team needs to make a splash and have an anchor pitcher). Then you decide how much you'd have to spend to get him for that amount of time on a contract (and I suggest that might be 10 years/$80 million for the length of the deal) and you throw the remaining money as a posting fee ($70 million) which - even if you don't get him, which I think you would - you would broadcast loudly to your fan base. Winning the posting fee also means that Tanaka will feel a lot of pressure from the Japanese club to sign so they get their money, which makes the 10 year/$80 million possible. A huge, huge risk that is outside of TR's comfort zone? Certainly. But this kid's size, velocity, nastiness, and the success of Darvish all point to it being a reasonable gamble for a franchise that won't need to spend much on others in a few years because their roster is almost entirely in the minor leagues and will be pre-arb.

Chance
10-22-2013, 05:50 PM
I have a sneaky feeling the Twins will sign Chris Narveson to a minor league deal with the opportunity to compete for a spot in the rotation. Anyone else see this as a good possibility?

ChuckPaine
10-22-2013, 06:48 PM
1) Dan Haren 2yrs/17M
2) Phil Hughes 2yrs/13M
3) Kevin Correia
4) Samuel Deduno
5) Gibson/Worley/Diamond/Albers

It really doesn't make sense for the twins to sign anyone more expensive than Haren or Hughes, except for Tanaka, who is out of our price range.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-22-2013, 08:06 PM
I think you are being optimistic about Jimenez and Kazmir. People keep saying it's a pretty thin FA market this year.

But I sure like the pitchers you've selected!

I agree with you and was hesitant, but I think we have to pull the trigger. I've never been a fan of Jimenez, but I checked his fip and xfip and both are actually very good career wise (even in his down years). It would be such a relief to have just one above average pitcher and I'm 50/50 he can provide that. Tanaka is a long shot and after him I think Jimenez is the best choice. Kazmir put a slightly above average season, so a Correia-like payday (better performance, higher risk) seems fair and I'd like to think this wasn't a fluke. Josh Johnson is coming off of one really bad year and right now he'd be a bargain. Can't forget he had a 3.81 ERA in 2012 with 180IPs. Injuries are his biggest concern for sure.

jokin
10-23-2013, 12:05 AM
1) Dan Haren 2yrs/17M
2) Phil Hughes 2yrs/13M
3) Kevin Correia
4) Samuel Deduno
5) Gibson/Worley/Diamond/Albers

It really doesn't make sense for the twins to sign anyone more expensive than Haren or Hughes, except for Tanaka, who is out of our price range.

I think it's within the Twins wherewith-all to sign Haren, Hughes and Tanaka. If all 3 were signed at the numbers you propose, you're looking at $8.5/yr for Haren, $6.5/yr for Hughes and let's say $10M/yr for Tanaka. That's only $25M per year and seems entirely do-able.

I just don't like the thinking that Tanaka should be considered automatically out of our price range, Target Field was built for just such an acquisition. Season Ticket sales and International marketing revenues would skyrocket for Terry Ryan for taking Jim Pohlad at his word...and finally firing the Shot Heard Around the World. Both Haren and Hughes, and an impact FA target like Ellsbury might be immediately more inclined to consider the Twins and Jim Pohlad's sincerity in "spending money" to avoid future embarrassment as rock-solid-sentiment.

Heck, you could also trade Correia for prospects or combined in a package deal for a First Baseman.....and now you've knocked down your annual cost for the SP acquisitions to $20M and helped fill a hole at another spot. Throw in Ellsbury and the payroll still comes in well under $100m.

glunn
10-23-2013, 12:29 AM
I am not a tax specialist either. This type of thing comes up from time to time in the consulting I do and a tax specialist is consulted. However, I can tell you that generally accepted accounting princples (GAAP) require that expense recognition match the benefit period or revenue generation. In this case I think it is very clear that the benefit period is over the life of the contract. You can Google "GAAP matching principle" or "GAAP expense recognition". I copied the section below from an internet search on the subject.

Matching Principle
Special consideration must be given to how revenues and expenses are related. Recall that an expense is the using up of an economic resource to generate a product or service. Those products and services will later be sold and recognized as revenue. GAAP has established a special rule for this relationship known as the matching principle. The matching principle requires that expenses must be recognized in the same period as the related revenues.

There is a recent IRS Field Advisory Memorandum that states the IRS position -- here (http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/269558/tax+authorities/Minor+League+Ballplayers+Signing+Bonus+Can+Be+Amor tized+Over+Contract+Life+IRS+Says)is a link to a discussion of the IRS position.

Oldgoat_MN
10-23-2013, 07:55 AM
There is a recent IRS Field Advisory Memorandum that states the IRS position -- here (http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/269558/tax+authorities/Minor+League+Ballplayers+Signing+Bonus+Can+Be+Amor tized+Over+Contract+Life+IRS+Says)is a link to a discussion of the IRS position.

Thank you glunn. That was very kind of you to find and post that.

Please don't be offended if we don't all run off and read exactly what the IRS has to say on the matter.

Peace

ashburyjohn
10-23-2013, 12:17 PM
Thank you glunn. That was very kind of you to find and post that.

Please don't be offended if we don't all run off and read exactly what the IRS has to say on the matter.

Peace

Fair enough, and I guess your post is at least somewhat tongue-in-cheek. But the linked article is IMO pretty readable. "Amortize" was the hardest word in it that I couldn't just skip over, and anyone who's ever signed for a mortgage probably has an inkling about that. :)

ashburyjohn
10-23-2013, 12:22 PM
There is a recent IRS Field Advisory Memorandum that states the IRS position -- here (http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/269558/tax+authorities/Minor+League+Ballplayers+Signing+Bonus+Can+Be+Amor tized+Over+Contract+Life+IRS+Says)is a link to a discussion of the IRS position.

That treatment pertains to bonuses, which go to the player. (Well, minus the agent's fee, and so forth.) I think the intent is to cut down on financial game playing in how the player is compensated - to make it all the same under tax law, whether lump sums are paid or not.

Since a posting fee goes to a third party, I'm not certain that the same logic applies - it's not financial gamesmanship, and it could be treated as a cost of doing business that year. There's no option (to my knowledge) to spread out the actual cash payment of the posting fee to the same number of years as the player contract. IANAL but if I were I'd probably want to pursue that a bit further with the IRS.

Major Leauge Ready
10-23-2013, 02:20 PM
That treatment pertains to bonuses, which go to the player. (Well, minus the agent's fee, and so forth.) I think the intent is to cut down on financial game playing in how the player is compensated - to make it all the same under tax law, whether lump sums are paid or not.

Since a posting fee goes to a third party, I'm not certain that the same logic applies - it's not financial gamesmanship, and it could be treated as a cost of doing business that year. There's no option (to my knowledge) to spread out the actual cash payment of the posting fee to the same number of years as the player contract. IANAL but if I were I'd probably want to pursue that a bit further with the IRS.

The primary guidelines for how assets are treated is the matching principle I posted earlier. Clearly, the benefit of a posting fee is realized over the course of the contract. I doubt the fact that the posting fee goes to a 3rd party matters. If the Twins purchased a piece of equipment for maintaining target field from one company, and the attachments from another company, the expenditures would be treated the same.

Of course, the posting fee is not going to show up as part of the salary and a team would not be obligated to pay it if they traded for the player. However, the organization would be required to amortize the cost over the course of the contract.

mike wants wins
10-23-2013, 02:29 PM
Do we think the Pohlad's primary concern is whether the posting fee is part of the 2013 or other years' tax calculations? I don't.

PSzalapski
10-23-2013, 03:38 PM
I like the original post's vague idea (I had a similar one (http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/pszalapski/4116-rejiggering-2014-twins-starting-pitching.html)), but they need to improve their lineup as well. Too many holes, and Ryan and Pohlad, I'm afraid, aren't committed to do anything drastic to make enough of a difference.

ChuckPaine
10-23-2013, 10:37 PM
I think it's within the Twins wherewith-all to sign Haren, Hughes and Tanaka. If all 3 were signed at the numbers you propose, you're looking at $8.5/yr for Haren, $6.5/yr for Hughes and let's say $10M/yr for Tanaka. That's only $25M per year and seems entirely do-able.

I just don't like the thinking that Tanaka should be considered automatically out of our price range, Target Field was built for just such an acquisition. Season Ticket sales and International marketing revenues would skyrocket for Terry Ryan for taking Jim Pohlad at his word...and finally firing the Shot Heard Around the World. Both Haren and Hughes, and an impact FA target like Ellsbury might be immediately more inclined to consider the Twins and Jim Pohlad's sincerity in "spending money" to avoid future embarrassment as rock-solid-sentiment.

Heck, you could also trade Correia for prospects or combined in a package deal for a First Baseman.....and now you've knocked down your annual cost for the SP acquisitions to $20M and helped fill a hole at another spot. Throw in Ellsbury and the payroll still comes in well under $100m.

Yeah, but you're forgetting that Tanaka will also require at least a $40M posting fee, in addition to $10-$12M a year. Lets say that Tanaka gets a $50M posting fee and a 5/$50M contract. Technically that's $20M per year, which, in theory, leaves the twins with $20M left to spend. It would be great, but it won't happen.

glunn
10-24-2013, 01:48 AM
Thank you glunn. That was very kind of you to find and post that.

Please don't be offended if we don't all run off and read exactly what the IRS has to say on the matter.

Peace

I am not offended. The link was intended mainly for those who were talking about the tax issue.

jokin
10-24-2013, 03:14 AM
Yeah, but you're forgetting that Tanaka will also require at least a $40M posting fee, in addition to $10-$12M a year. Lets say that Tanaka gets a $50M posting fee and a 5/$50M contract. Technically that's $20M per year, which, in theory, leaves the twins with $20M left to spend. It would be great, but it won't happen.

Agreed. I didn't forget that and I understand that that is the case. But the posting fee doesn't count towards the payroll, and all the advantages that it entails. Pohlad is on public record that the embarrassment must stop, and that he will open the checkbook- and the last 2 years of cost-cutting, the various windfalls of revenue streams from Target Field, coupled with the "found money" from the new media deal makes paying out a one-time posting fee go from feasible to very do-able....but of course, we resume our in-kind agreement.....

it won't happen/

Major Leauge Ready
10-24-2013, 06:54 AM
Agreed. I didn't forget that and I understand that that is the case. But the posting fee doesn't count towards the payroll, and all the advantages that it entails. Pohlad is on public record that the embarrassment must stop, and that he will open the checkbook- and the last 2 years of cost-cutting, the various windfalls of revenue streams from Target Field, coupled with the "found money" from the new media deal makes paying out a one-time posting fee go from feasible to very do-able....but of course, we resume our in-kind agreement.....

it won't happen/

So what does it count toward? It won't show up it whatever source might list "payroll" but it is part of cost associated with that player. The Twins are going to recognize it as payroll expense. You are confusing how MLB views this expense for luxury tax vs how it has to be accounted for as a business. The short version is that the Twins are not going to pretend a posting fee is not part of the cost of a given player. They are going to include any posting fees and/or bonus expenditures in their 52% budget for payroll expense.

gobirds
10-24-2013, 09:01 AM
I'm guessing the Twins end up with none of the pitchers speculated on in this thread (with the possible exception of Narveson). Some posted the Giants wouldn't give Lincecum the $14 mil qualifying offer, but he ended up getting more than that. The prices are going to be high this off-season, and the Twins just don't seem to want to win bidding wars. Especially when it comes to long contracts for pitchers on the downside of their career. And I think this is pretty astute.

Look for them to sign someone like Jake Westbrook to a one or maybe a 2 year contract. I believe the Cardinals will decline his option. He'd provide a veteran to help bridge the gap to the Twins prospects, but there will not be a bidding war for him. No one will be excited by the signing, but the Twins aren't making the playoffs next year. I'm not saying this is a great move, but it matches the Twins philosophy more than going out a signing guys from the top of the market.

spycake
10-24-2013, 09:42 AM
I could see Westbrook coming here, on a Correia type deal. Might be a few years too late, though -- Westbrook somehow managed to issue more walks than strikeouts last year.

Interesting note on Westbrook -- Cleveland extended him 3 years into free agency at $10 million per, and he was injured for the first two of those seasons. Looked like the kind of contract the Twins fear and avoid. But in the third season, he was healthy but below average, and was flipped at the deadline for a high K minor league starter in Corey Kluber who looked pretty decent in 2013.

diehardtwinsfan
10-24-2013, 03:53 PM
I think it's within the Twins wherewith-all to sign Haren, Hughes and Tanaka. If all 3 were signed at the numbers you propose, you're looking at $8.5/yr for Haren, $6.5/yr for Hughes and let's say $10M/yr for Tanaka. That's only $25M per year and seems entirely do-able.



I've got to think that Hughes and Haren will cost more than that... Maybe not Haren given the injury risk. I'd be all over Hughes for a little more than KC money. Something tells me though that he's going to get a 3-4 year deal north of 10M/year. I hope you are right, because if that's what the numbers are, we should see one or two of them in a Twins uni next season.

cmb0252
10-24-2013, 04:02 PM
Darren Wolfson tweeted:

Terry Ryan confirmed to me the he would sacrifice his 2nd rd pick to sign a FA. Still seems like a long shot. Maybe Ervin Santana.

johnnydakota
11-12-2013, 10:51 PM
Either go all in on Masahiro Tanaka 70+ million posting fee and 12 million per over 6 years.
or
J.Johnson 1+1 (9 million and a 1million buy out and the option year at 15 million)
Kazmir 2 year+1 (8.5 per .1 million buy out or 12 million for his option year)
Phil Hughes 3 years 8 million per
Erick Chavez 4.5 million 1 year To platoon with Trevor
R.Fucal 2.5 million middle infield mentor

Now most important , no catcher playing in the outfield....and
Only Willingham or Arcia in the outfield at 1 time , we need speed and more speed in the outfield, so Ham and waldo can never be in the outfield at the same time...

There you go improved rotation and infield help all for around 2012 payroll prices

SDTwinsFan
11-13-2013, 02:35 AM
I had this great dream that the Twins posted $70 mil and got Tanaka. TR came out in the press conference and explained how much he appreciated all of us fans for dealing with the disgusting slop of players the last few years, and that the ownership felt it was important to spend the money they had been saving.... Wouldn't that be something??? :-)