PDA

View Full Version : Suk-Min Yoon



Nick Nelson
10-16-2013, 12:02 PM
Korean pitcher is starting to draw some buzz as a potential Twins target, per Doogie.

https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/390482325084991488

Yoon is comparable to Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has had tons of success for the Dodgers, but my understanding is that Yoon is coming off a season where he lost some velocity and pitched out of the bullpen following a shoulder injury. That might make him more affordable. Thoughts?

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 12:08 PM
Well, no posting fee required (so cheaper). Lost velocity. Has had injuries he's recovering from. Seems to meet all the requirements for a Twins signing. :-)

righty8383
10-16-2013, 12:16 PM
Yoon will be our consolation prize when we come up just short on Tanaka:th_alc:

Fatt Crapps
10-16-2013, 12:25 PM
<tasteless reference deleted>

This post won't last long

gunnarthor
10-16-2013, 12:30 PM
This post won't last long

Nor should it.

gunnarthor
10-16-2013, 12:32 PM
As to the original post, I don't know enough about any of the international signees to know whether or not we should go after them but I'b glad that we did and hope the scouting guys get it better than Nishi.

Nick Nelson
10-16-2013, 12:38 PM
Puck, we get that you weren't trying to be offensive but probably best to just not reference racially insensitive crap like that, especially on a thread about an Asian pitcher, even if you're not trying to endorse it.

Moving on...

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 12:44 PM
Puck, we get that you weren't trying to be offensive but probably best to just not reference racially insensitive crap like that, especially on a thread about an Asian pitcher, even if you're not trying to endorse it.

Moving on...

I took it all out..I most certainly do not endorse racism, absolutely the opposite in reality, but Stephen Colbert slamming that news station for posting those names was hilarious (because of all the levels those names had to get to before even getting on the news prompter for the anchor to read) and every once in awhile, it's nice to not take everything so serious and laugh...

But, again, took it all out. I stand by my first post though...just the kind of pitchers we'll go after :-)

pierre75275
10-16-2013, 01:56 PM
Can anybody post his stats? Does he strike anybody out or pitch to contact? How old is he?

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 02:04 PM
Can anybody post his stats? Does he strike anybody out or pitch to contact? How old is he?

Suk-min Yoon Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=yoon--000suk)

The right-handed Yoon pitched in 30 games for Kia in 2013, tossing over 87 innings. He posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while striking out 76 batters.

BTW, something not mentioned yet...his agent is Scott Boras.

pierre75275
10-16-2013, 02:15 PM
Thank you Mr. Puck! Doesnt look like his arm has the innings that a Matsuzaka or Davarish or Tanaka might have....but I would still rather have Tananka

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 02:22 PM
Suk-min Yoon Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=yoon--000suk)

The right-handed Yoon pitched in 30 games for Kia in 2013, tossing over 87 innings. He posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while striking out 76 batters.

BTW, something not mentioned yet...his agent is Scott Boras.


There is more here historically, though, right?

Because Anthony Swarzak threw 96 innings (albeit over 48 games) with a 2.91 ERA with a 1.156 WHIP in major league ball but only striking out 69.

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 02:32 PM
There is more here historically, though, right?

Because Anthony Swarzak threw 96 innings (albeit over 48 games) with a 2.91 ERA with a 1.156 WHIP in major league ball but only striking out 69.

I only gave what I had readily available...if others have more they should definitely share

Nick Nelson
10-16-2013, 02:58 PM
There is more here historically, though, right?

Because Anthony Swarzak threw 96 innings (albeit over 48 games) with a 2.91 ERA with a 1.156 WHIP in major league ball but only striking out 69.
Yes. In the past he's been one of the league's stars as a starter, and was voted MVP in 2011 (I think?) but he lost some velocity and converted to a relief role this year due to the shoulder injury. Because of that, he carries some risk, but he'll also come cheaper and at 27 he's got some upside to bounce back.

Seth Stohs
10-16-2013, 03:37 PM
Told by someone I trust that he is "definitely not Ryu!" Was good 3 years ago, but things have gone downhill. Maybe a back-end of rotation guy, maybe a bullpen arm.

notoriousgod71
10-16-2013, 03:43 PM
Why even bother on someone like this? I'm sick of the bottom of the barrel scraping we continuously do. Go big or go home.

PseudoSABR
10-16-2013, 03:53 PM
Why even bother on someone like this? I'm sick of the bottom of the barrel scraping we continuously do. Go big or go home.I emphatically disagree with the approach you suggest. To become a winning club you try to find value where ever you can. Including, but not foolishly limited to, going big. Signing a guy like Yoon has nothing to do with whether we go big or not. Sheesh.

notoriousgod71
10-16-2013, 03:59 PM
I emphatically disagree with the approach you suggest. To become a winning club you try to find value where ever you can. Including, but not foolishly limited to, going big. Signing a guy like Yoon has nothing to do with whether we go big or not. Sheesh.

Most organizations this is correct. With the Twins I'm not so sure. Signing Correia would have been fine last year had it not been our "big" FA signing of the off-season. When it comes down to it I just do not trust this front office to improve our team significantly.

Also a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 whip in Korea is not likely to translate very well in the states.

PseudoSABR
10-16-2013, 04:23 PM
Also a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 whip in Korea is not likely to translate very well in the states.Right, but you need real depth at AAA. Whether it's Deduno or this guy or Albers; those guys are going to end up pitching major league innings, given how often starting pitchers get hurt.

I just don't see how our interest in this guy reconfirms your disbelief in the Front Office's competence.

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 06:15 PM
[Moderator removed the post]

Yes...yes I did...and posted a link of Stephen Colbert's whole hilarious thing about it where he slams the news station for reporting the fake names even though the list had to go through a bunch of people.

Darn it. Timmy had two jobs! Get coffee, and confirm the names of pilots in airline disasters!

ashburyjohn
10-16-2013, 06:57 PM
BTW, something not mentioned yet...his agent is Scott Boras.

Hey! Stop posting offensive names. :)

darin617
10-16-2013, 07:27 PM
Told by someone I trust that he is "definitely not Ryu!" Was good 3 years ago, but things have gone downhill. Maybe a back-end of rotation guy, maybe a bullpen arm.

I take Seth's word.
You gotta laugh though most of the Twins starters sucked last year and now they want to sign a man named Suk.

Thrylos
10-16-2013, 07:32 PM
I'd rather see the Twins sing him instead of the usual 30-some suspects they use to fill the Rochester rotation.

His first name is pronounced "Sook", btw

kab21
10-16-2013, 07:47 PM
Most organizations this is correct. With the Twins I'm not so sure. Signing Correia would have been fine last year had it not been our "big" FA signing of the off-season. When it comes down to it I just do not trust this front office to improve our team significantly.

Also a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 whip in Korea is not likely to translate very well in the states.

His numbers were significantly better previous seasons. the issue is the recent injury and velocity loss and that he has never shown starter durability. You go after him hoping that he bounces back but this should be the 3rd or 4th starter added and you expect him to start him in AAA.

Jeremy Nygaard
10-16-2013, 08:03 PM
Chatted with someone with the Twins who has seen Yoon, but isn't the point man on this scout/negotiation.

Really liked Yoon in 2010. Fastball (94), nasty slider (87) and a curve and change to boot. Since then has battled injuries (lost velocity) and attitude issues and went from front line prospect to back-of-the-rotation type. Expects him to "get paid like a 4".

Says he's talented and signable, but is more "lottery ticket" than anything. Nothing about Ryu, but says there is hope for a "Iwakuma-type revival" (which wouldn't be terrible, imo).

This line sums it all up: "Better than what we got? Sure. Am I real psyched about it? Eh...."

His workout is going to really determine everything. I would assume - at the least - that his deal tops the deal the Orioles gave Tsuyoshi Wada (2 yr/$8.15m plus a $5m team option) as a 30-year old in 2011.

I floated 3/$20 out earlier today and I think, with Boras, that's a decent place to start.

clutterheart
10-16-2013, 08:29 PM
Told by someone I trust that he is "definitely not Ryu!" Was good 3 years ago, but things have gone downhill. Maybe a back-end of rotation guy, maybe a bullpen arm.

Sigh. Then why is their buzz on him?

I predict a depressing off-season...prove me wrong Terry Ryan!

Thrylos
10-16-2013, 08:50 PM
I floated 3/$20 out earlier today and I think, with Boras, that's a decent place to start.

I thought that the Twins could do better with 3/$20M as a starting place, but then I realize that this is Blackburn/Correia type money...
Sad.

Jeremy Nygaard
10-16-2013, 09:18 PM
I thought that the Twins could do better with 3/$20M as a starting place, but then I realize that this is Blackburn/Correia type money...
Sad.

Probably the going rate for a 27-year-old #4 starter.

On a related note, it's a great time to be a professional-ish pitcher.

notoriousgod71
10-16-2013, 09:26 PM
Right, but you need real depth at AAA. Whether it's Deduno or this guy or Albers; those guys are going to end up pitching major league innings, given how often starting pitchers get hurt.

I just don't see how our interest in this guy reconfirms your disbelief in the Front Office's competence.

Our interest in this guy in particular doesn't confirm my disbelief in the front office. It's the majority of the guys we have interest in that makes me feel this way.

darin617
10-16-2013, 10:59 PM
I'd rather see the Twins sing him instead of the usual 30-some suspects they use to fill the Rochester rotation.

His first name is pronounced "Sook", btw

Thrylos do you know what Scott Baker's contract status is for 2014? Did he sign a 1 yr or more.

righty8383
10-17-2013, 12:43 AM
His first name is pronounced "Sook", btw

We'll let his performance determine how it should be pronounced;)

jokin
10-17-2013, 01:04 AM
I just don't see how our interest in this guy reconfirms your disbelief in the Front Office's competence.

This quote from a Twins inside source and the bolded text reconfirms the FO SOP:



Says he's talented and signable, but is more "lottery ticket" than anything.

Nothing about Ryu, but says there is hope for a "Iwakuma-type revival". This line sums it all up: "Better than what we got? Sure. Am I real psyched about it? Eh...."


According to Jeremy, the bidding would start with Boras at 3/$21 for a pitcher with shoulder issues and declining velocity, who they already acknowledge is at best, a "lotto ticket".

Further depressing this whole scenario, should Suk prove to be "signable" at $21M (which would be the second highest FA Twins signing, ever), this would, in fact be trumpeted by the FO as THE Big Splash of the offseason (ala Correia), certainly not merely the "AAA depth-seeking" that you proffered.

Yes, I would question their competence yet again should they go down this path. The Twins have a recent history of casting high-priced players aside, and only reinvesting a smaller percentage of those freed-up dollars back into the club's payroll- with the payroll dropping substantially in both 2012 and 2013. Given the Twins will have freed up only $18-$23M from the 2013 payroll number (depending on what happens with Pelfrey) and forecasting falling revenues in 2014, they would likely only spend enough, in addition to Suk, by getting another retread/bargain bin SP as the secondary signing. Highly unlikely, that in addition to signing Suk, that they will seriously go after another top arm who legitimately projects as top-of-the-rotation potential.

twinswest
10-17-2013, 01:10 AM
The fact that the top current target for this team seems to be an Asian pitcher who's performance has regressed for 3 straight years should tell us all that we need to know about this horrible franchise. We already have plenty of fringe starter/bullpen arms. We'll continue to debate crap like this while other teams spend more money to sign superior talent and we will still spend a couple grand to buy tickets and eat food at the stadium and hope to have a competitive team in 2015 or 2016. Stop the farce and wake up. Ownership does not care more than winning just enough to keep the business cash flowing.

jokin
10-17-2013, 01:20 AM
The fact that the top current target for this team seems to be an Asian pitcher who's performance has regressed for 3 straight years should tell us all that we need to know about this horrible franchise. We already have plenty of fringe starter/bullpen arms. We'll continue to debate crap like this while other teams spend more money to sign superior talent and we will still spend a couple grand to buy tickets and eat food at the stadium and hope to have a competitive team in 2015 or 2016. Stop the farce and wake up. Ownership does not care more than winning just enough to keep the business cash flowing.

And I forgot to mention that since the Twins "liked him" in 2010, Suk has developed "attitude issues".....that's sure to go over real big with the anal types in charge at field level.

Is there a hidden Korean ex-pat demographic I'm unaware of in Minnesota?

Jeremy Nygaard
10-17-2013, 05:27 AM
The team is gonna go watch him. Nowhere did anyone suggest he's a "top target". What I posted was one guy's view, and the perception that I get is that he's simply a pitcher that's on the radar (along with many others).

My best guess is that some other team will like him more. And people will complain the team was too cheap to get him.

ashburyjohn
10-17-2013, 12:23 PM
The fact that the top current target for this team seems to be an Asian pitcher who's performance has regressed for 3 straight years should tell us all that we need to know about this horrible franchise. We already have plenty of fringe starter/bullpen arms. We'll continue to debate crap like this while other teams spend more money to sign superior talent and we will still spend a couple grand to buy tickets and eat food at the stadium and hope to have a competitive team in 2015 or 2016. Stop the farce and wake up. Ownership does not care more than winning just enough to keep the business cash flowing.

Moderator's note: Please avoid turning a thread about a possible FA acquisition into a debate on front office motives and so forth. Review the TD Comments Policy if necessary:

http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/8837-revised-comment-policy-september-2013-a.html

jokin
10-17-2013, 03:10 PM
Moderator's note: Please avoid turning a thread about a possible FA acquisition into a debate on front office motives and so forth. Review the TD Comments Policy if necessary:

http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/8837-revised-comment-policy-september-2013-a.html

....But......aren't these 2 topics inextricably interlinked?

Nick Nelson
10-17-2013, 03:31 PM
I think too many people are overlooking the fact that this guy is only 27. It's not like he's a 35-year-old who is losing velocity due to age. He's had some shoulder problems. It's reasonable to believe he could rebound from his health woes and return to his form of a couple years ago, when he was one of Korea's premier talents.

I'm sure that's why teams will take an interest in him (and I'm also sure that's the idea that Boras will be pushing hard).

iastfan112
10-17-2013, 03:40 PM
....But......aren't these 2 topics inextricably interlinked?

I tend to agree with this sentiment, theses topics are pretty closely linked.

jokin
10-17-2013, 03:43 PM
I think too many people are overlooking the fact that this guy is only 27. It's not like he's a 35-year-old who is losing velocity due to age. He's had some shoulder problems. It's reasonable to believe he could rebound from his health woes and return to his form of a couple years ago, when he was one of Korea's premier talents.

I'm sure that's why teams will take an interest in him (and I'm also sure that's the idea that Boras will be pushing hard).

I don't think people in general are minimizing his past demonstration of his talents or his potential to bounce back. But even an anonymous source inside the Twins confirmed that he still projects as somewhat of a "lottery ticket" signing...and mindful that he isn't envisioned as front-end SP material. Remind me again of when's the last time the Twins were willing to take a flyer with the costs for the flyer starting at 3/$21?....That's what people are talking about...were it to occur, this would be the Twins one and only big offseason signing, with all the risks that it would entail.

ashburyjohn
10-17-2013, 03:52 PM
....But......aren't these 2 topics inextricably interlinked?

Extricate them. You can do eet.

diehardtwinsfan
10-17-2013, 04:12 PM
I have zero problems with a team like the Twins going after lottery tickets. This is exactly what they should be doing. This guy is affordable, and while I hope it's not the only acquisition, it's the type of guy they can get cheaply, and if it pans out, becomes insanely valuable.

Oh, and one nit to pick. I'm getting tired already of people using the "largest FA contract" to judge Twins contacts. I get that they are cheap, but they did just hand out 184M to some guy named Mauer. Technically, he wasn't an FA. I get that. In the same token though, it was one of the largest baseball contracts. EVER.

jokin
10-17-2013, 05:23 PM
I have zero problems with a team like the Twins going after lottery tickets. This is exactly what they should be doing. This guy is affordable, and while I hope it's not the only acquisition, it's the type of guy they can get cheaply, and if it pans out, becomes insanely valuable.

Oh, and one nit to pick. I'm getting tired already of people using the "largest FA contract" to judge Twins contacts. I get that they are cheap, but they did just hand out 184M to some guy named Mauer. Technically, he wasn't an FA. I get that. In the same token though, it was one of the largest baseball contracts. EVER.

Uhh, how much do lottery tickets cost? A couple bucks, for the extremely unlikely chance to win millions. That's what a team like the Twins should spend for lottery tickets, not what will likely end up being the biggest FA contract they've ever signed. To continue with your analogy, most lottery tickets are purchased by the poor.... and as any professional trader or gambler would tell you, that's "exactly what they" should NOT be doing... the poor have basic needs that need to be met, just like the Twins do.

And then you mixed your metaphors, "some guy named Mauer" was how you should spend your big money on a long-term contract, ie, on proven talent, not on a "flyer".

cmathewson
10-17-2013, 06:11 PM
Can we sign someone not named Suk?

notoriousgod71
10-17-2013, 06:37 PM
I think too many people are overlooking the fact that this guy is only 27. It's not like he's a 35-year-old who is losing velocity due to age. He's had some shoulder problems. It's reasonable to believe he could rebound from his health woes and return to his form of a couple years ago, when he was one of Korea's premier talents.

I'm sure that's why teams will take an interest in him (and I'm also sure that's the idea that Boras will be pushing hard).

What exactly is wrong with his shoulder anyway? History has indicated that shoulder injuries are worse than elbow injuries to pitchers so if it's anything severe it's yet another red flag.

jokin
10-17-2013, 06:54 PM
What exactly is wrong with his shoulder anyway? History has indicated that shoulder injuries are worse than elbow injuries to pitchers so if it's anything severe it's yet another red flag.

He's been dealing with the shoulder issue since 2009, and he's had good and bad years since then. Getting basically shut down for mop-up relief duty last year should be yet another red flag.

USAFChief
10-17-2013, 07:26 PM
I have trouble believing a guy who's shoulder problems/performance were bad enough to cost him his spot as a starter in the Korean League is going to get anywhere near 3/$21.

I'll be surprised if he even gets a guaranteed 1 yr major league contract.

jokin
10-17-2013, 07:53 PM
I have trouble believing a guy who's shoulder problems/performance were bad enough to cost him his spot as a starter in the Korean League is going to get anywhere near 3/$21.

I'll be surprised if he even gets a guaranteed 1 yr major league contract.

Yes, but Boras' imprimatur on the deal indicates that he isn't really going to waste his valuable time on any old fringy, marginally major league caliber pitcher, is he?

Jeremy Nygaard
10-17-2013, 08:35 PM
When I think "lottery tickets" as major league free agents, I typically think of guys where you're getting what you pay for... with a chance of getting something much better. (Liriano has been referred to as a lottery ticket this year.)

Someone will pay him like a #4 (and I think 3/21 is reasonable, given his age) and hope that he can return to his 2010 form where he could be a front-end guy. Like I said before, a lot will depend on how he performs when he pitches for teams. If the velo is still down and there isn't a team that feels good about his medicals, he'll get less.

kab21
10-17-2013, 09:01 PM
I think too many people are overlooking the fact that this guy is only 27. It's not like he's a 35-year-old who is losing velocity due to age. He's had some shoulder problems. It's reasonable to believe he could rebound from his health woes and return to his form of a couple years ago, when he was one of Korea's premier talents.

I'm sure that's why teams will take an interest in him (and I'm also sure that's the idea that Boras will be pushing hard).

From everything I have read he should be the Twins 3rd or 4th pitching acquisition that they can send to AAA if necessary. Spending 20+M on somebody like that seems silly. Now if we are talking about 5ish M then I am interested.

Oxtung
10-18-2013, 01:42 PM
I don't think people in general are minimizing his past demonstration of his talents or his potential to bounce back. But even an anonymous source inside the Twins confirmed that he still projects as somewhat of a "lottery ticket" signing...and mindful that he isn't envisioned as front-end SP material. Remind me again of when's the last time the Twins were willing to take a flyer with the costs for the flyer starting at 3/$21?....That's what people are talking about...were it to occur, this would be the Twins one and only big offseason signing, with all the risks that it would entail.

I think this isn't getting enough attention. We all wish the Twins would sign multiple pitchers to "big" contracts. 2 or 3 contracts each with >2 years on the deals would seem like a god send for this rotation. But when you get right down to it the Twins aren't going to do that. At best the Twins will sign 1 of those deals (even that is highly questionable).

So to me we should be asking ourselves, is this the player we want to go with? Is he the best FA signing we want to see signed this off season?

Clearly this is dependent on that 3/$21 number being roughly representational. If his value drops considerably into the 1 or 2 year deal then the above does not apply.

diehardtwinsfan
10-18-2013, 02:09 PM
Uhh, how much do lottery tickets cost? A couple bucks, for the extremely unlikely chance to win millions. That's what a team like the Twins should spend for lottery tickets, not what will likely end up being the biggest FA contract they've ever signed. To continue with your analogy, most lottery tickets are purchased by the poor.... and as any professional trader or gambler would tell you, that's "exactly what they" should NOT be doing... the poor have basic needs that need to be met, just like the Twins do.

And then you mixed your metaphors, "some guy named Mauer" was how you should spend your big money on a long-term contract, ie, on proven talent, not on a "flyer".

I think you read a bit more into what I was trying to say...

Then again, at the same time, this is worthy of response. You slam the Twins for not following the Cubs model going after lottery tickets such as Baker (did not pay off) and Feldman (paid off) and then in the same token say not to do it here. Which one do you want? From here it just looks like trying to be contrarian, or simply using an ever changing set of critera to slam the FO. As I said before, I don't have a problem with the Twins going after a lottery ticket like this. The odds don't quite fit your analogy, and I do agree that at a certain price they should drop out, and if you notice, I never quoted a price. Also, I wouldn't call the Twins poor. They aren't the A's or KC. They are in a budget place where they can afford this and still afford to do other things. If this is the only aquisition, then I'd most definitely pass unless he's a lot cheaper than 3/21.

As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.

drivlikejehu
10-18-2013, 02:35 PM
As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.

The problem with your argument is that extending your own players is not the same as signing free agents. In the case of younger players, there is often a discount involved in an extension because the reserve system gives leverage to the clubs. Even for players with more than 6 years of service time, the current club is often taking on additional risk by extending a year or more prior to free agency, and in exchange usually pays less per year than would result from free agency.

And even in the scenario where there is no direct financial benefit, a player's current organization will have the most knowledge about his abilities, health, and makeup, all of which are critical in deciding how much to offer. So it's no surprise that extended players are safer bets compared to free agents (born out by studies - there was one on Fangraphs this past off-season).

The Twins have still managed to botch the handling of their own players, of course (e.g., Blackburn), but the bottom line is that the excessively risk-averse Twins view free agents in a completely different light than their own players. They never would give a free agent a Mauer-like contract, so that decision is utterly irrelevant to the issue of whether the Twins are unwilling to spend money on free agents.

The simple fact is that they are, while other clubs- who fully understand the downsides to the free agent market - nonetheless rely on it as an important source of players.

Oxtung
10-18-2013, 03:39 PM
As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.

In addition to what drivelikejehu already stated, which was a fantastic rebuttal, the man making the signing decisions is not the same man who signed Mauer to that contract. Ryan has stated several times that he is unwilling to sign players to long term or big money deals. The biggest contract he has ever given out is 4 years and $40 million to a 25 year old Johan Santana who was coming off of a stunning year (he posted an ERA+ of 182!!!) for which he won the Cy Young award.

jokin
10-18-2013, 05:35 PM
I think you read a bit more into what I was trying to say...

Then again, at the same time, this is worthy of response. You slam the Twins for not following the Cubs model going after lottery tickets such as Baker (did not pay off) and Feldman (paid off) and then in the same token say not to do it here. Which one do you want? From here it just looks like trying to be contrarian, or simply using an ever changing set of critera to slam the FO. As I said before, I don't have a problem with the Twins going after a lottery ticket like this. The odds don't quite fit your analogy, and I do agree that at a certain price they should drop out, and if you notice, I never quoted a price. Also, I wouldn't call the Twins poor. They aren't the A's or KC. They are in a budget place where they can afford this and still afford to do other things. If this is the only aquisition, then I'd most definitely pass unless he's a lot cheaper than 3/21.

As for my other point, I think you again missed it. I'm not bashing the Mauer contract. My point is that I'm tired of people talking about the Twins and the "largest FA contract in team history" (i.e. Willingham) as a means to denigrate the FO. I agree that they definitely spend less than I would if I were running things, but when used in that capacity it's a very carefully worded statement that very intentionally excludes the 184M contract that they just handed out a few years ago so as to prevent a local star from becoming a FA, or the many arb deals they've signed to guys nearing FA. When used in a way to degrade the Twins for being cheap, it's flat out ignorant.

From an old public service radio commercial...."it's misconception mania day".

I clearly stated that when the Twins are playing the lottery game....."That's what a team like the Twins should spend for lottery tickets...." they should buy low, Rich Harden was a great example of a guy, who if he had panned out on a make-good minor league deal, would have been a huge lotto winner. Suk is the diametric opposite of that approach- now if Suk ends up signing for one year somewhere between Marcum and Haren range, that would be the other end of the range of the lottery nature of a speculative signing- do we really want to take the chance to relive 3 years of the Twins folly in foisting Blackburn ineptitude on the roster? And I stand by what I said previously, were the Twins to see Suk in his tryout and go all in, that will be The Big Signing. They have to do better. The Pirates hit the jackpot with Liriano on a 2/$7M deal that got even better when Liriano had his domestic difficulties. That's the type of deals that the Twins should be looking for if they want to play the lotto with a small portion of their available dollars.

Regarding Mauer, I referenced and reiterated your point exactly in its context relative to your first point. I didn't say that you bashed the contract, it was 4 years ago now that the Twins justifiably extended the centerpiece of their franchise with a proven quality and bankable piece of merchandise in potential HOFer Joe Mauer...... yet they obviously failed to have a clearly-thought-out long-term conception about how to be annually competitive with a Mauer-led team, who the Plan A and Plan B actors would, or could be, to keep the team atop the AL Central, and what it would take to justify the expense of having one top-heavy contract- should circumstances change radically. Clearly, their thoughts concerning taking the risks and doing what it takes by going outside the organization by adding more FA proven quality, and building around Mauer in his prime production years is not even remotely on their philosophical radar. To the contrary, they've been in slow-mo rebuild/breakdown the payroll mode for the last 2 years, with at least 2 more years to come. Now what's so ignorant about that ever-present reality?

jay
10-20-2013, 10:07 AM
Extricate them. You can do eet.

I guess the thread failed at that.

This thread is a perfect example of what a lot of people are fed up with (and why I've posted less and less) -- far too many threads devolve into the exact. same. story. and debate about the front office, usually with the exact same posters. What hasn't been said on that already?

We can tie almost any and every topic to front office spending in some way. Why can't we have a thread to just talk about Suk-Min Yoon and what he could turn out to be.... without rehashing the exact same commentary on the front office?

mike wants wins
10-20-2013, 10:08 AM
If they are going to sign a guy coming off injury, as a lottery ticket, I'd rather they go with someone that has already been good in the MLB, like Lincecum or someone else.

diehardtwinsfan
10-21-2013, 12:00 PM
The problem with your argument is that extending your own players is not the same as signing free agents. In the case of younger players, there is often a discount involved in an extension because the reserve system gives leverage to the clubs. Even for players with more than 6 years of service time, the current club is often taking on additional risk by extending a year or more prior to free agency, and in exchange usually pays less per year than would result from free agency.

And even in the scenario where there is no direct financial benefit, a player's current organization will have the most knowledge about his abilities, health, and makeup, all of which are critical in deciding how much to offer. So it's no surprise that extended players are safer bets compared to free agents (born out by studies - there was one on Fangraphs this past off-season).

The Twins have still managed to botch the handling of their own players, of course (e.g., Blackburn), but the bottom line is that the excessively risk-averse Twins view free agents in a completely different light than their own players. They never would give a free agent a Mauer-like contract, so that decision is utterly irrelevant to the issue of whether the Twins are unwilling to spend money on free agents.

The simple fact is that they are, while other clubs- who fully understand the downsides to the free agent market - nonetheless rely on it as an important source of players.

Yes and no. I agree that extending your players isn't always like a FA. The Santana exension is a good example of this, as the Twins had all the leverage and could get an extra year of FA. Mauer on the other hand was not that case. That's my point. I think the idea of bashing the front office for not handing out huge FA contracts is kind of silly when they handed out a pretty big contract to Mauer a few years ago. I get that Bill Smith was the guy in charge when that happened and that Mauer technically still had one more year of control, but to pretend like this is far different from a FA contract is just wrong. There's an insane amount of risk being taken on by signing a catcher to that large of a contract for that long of a time, especially given that catchers tend to wear down more than others. I'd add that there's far more risk than a typical FA contract here as well.

I also think it's a pretty safe bet that Ryan would have done that too. There's no way the Pohlads were going to let Joe leave after they got their stadium. My whole point has been that using this concept of the largest FA contract is Twins history is nothing more than wording things for the purpose of drama, and doing so in a way that ignores that 184M one they just handed out a few years back. I get that Mauer wasn't a true FA, but these situations aren't that much different.