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Willihammer
10-15-2013, 01:23 PM
I know Jim Pohlad has publicly ruled out contracts over 4 years, and I realize the prospect of the Twins signing Cano has been pre-emptively mocked by a certain TD blogger (cough Swanson cough), but there are compelling reasons the Twins should pursue him.

* Twins have the need
* Cano's really really good
* Cano's healthy
* Denial value
* Top 10 pick going into 2014 (protected)
* weak market

Cashman has waffled publicly. Magic Johnson has excluded the Dodgers publicly. Rangers are "interested" but have middle infielders coming out their ears. Phillies are set. Boston is mostly set. LA is expected to prioritize pitching. Forget 10/300. I think there could be a real opening for a middle-tier club like the Twins to steal the premier FA for a 6 year commitment, a la 2011 Adrian Beltre.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2013, 01:41 PM
I can't see Cano going anywhere but the Yankees. The fallout from missing the playoffs and then losing Cano would just be too much for the Steinbrenners to handle, I think.

Seth Stohs
10-15-2013, 01:43 PM
Yankees or Tigers, I'd guess. Of course, you can never rule out the Angels doing something stupid under the radar! :)

nicksaviking
10-15-2013, 02:01 PM
Even though long term deals get panned by everyone the second they are signed, I still think Cano gets an 8 year deal. Down from the 10 years he is requesting, but still enough that he get's one of the elite contracts.

ThePuck
10-15-2013, 02:03 PM
No chance at all we get Cano...

Willihammer
10-15-2013, 02:22 PM
Yankees or Tigers, I'd guess. Of course, you can never rule out the Angels doing something stupid under the radar! :)

If the Yankees want him more than they're letting on, I don't think any team can stop them.

If they are serious about getting under the cap and staying there though, then the Twins have to stop Detroit signing him or this whole rebuild is for naught.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 03:19 PM
Not what I would do with the money. For that money, I'd rather go after Tanaka or Ellsbury.

Seth Stohs
10-15-2013, 03:22 PM
If the Yankees want him more than they're letting on, I don't think any team can stop them.

If they are serious about getting under the cap and staying there though, then the Twins have to stop Detroit signing him or this whole rebuild is for naught.

I'm not sure a second baseman is going to make that big of a difference.

Siehbiscuit
10-15-2013, 04:51 PM
NO to Cano! He's a GREAT player, but NO. Tying up money that should be used on anything but pitching is a mistake.

Brandon
10-15-2013, 05:14 PM
i dont think the twins should do too much this offseason. sign 2 starting pitchers and a SS to compete with Florimon who could also play 3rd would be nice and maybe a 1B then wait to see which prospects are developing and go from there.

mnfireman
10-15-2013, 05:42 PM
Let Texas sign him and try to work a deal for Andrus or Profar! :D

Riverbrian
10-15-2013, 06:31 PM
Cano will get paid by someone. The TV money may drive prices up a tish. I would not rule out the Dodgers... Especially if they don't win the WS. The Yankees will be competitive with any offer made by other teams... No matter how they are acting now.

The Twins have no chance. Even if they did have a chance. It would drain the money Pohlad kinda promised we would spend. I assume that money ain't endless and we need pitching.

Danchat
10-15-2013, 09:17 PM
No, no, no, and.... no. If we are going to spend 150M on a player (which there's a 100% chance we won't) it would have to be on a pitcher. I know our hitting is seriously bad but there is help on the way. There is no help coming for our pitching staff.

I just hope the teams in contention get together and drive the price down. Will any team ever learn from these bad 100M+ deals?

SpiritofVodkaDave
10-15-2013, 11:11 PM
No. Cano is going to get at least 200 million. There is zero reason to bring him in and tie up 45+ mil a year in two players for the better part of the next 6 or 7 years.

The Dodgers or Yankees will bring him in.

Oxtung
10-16-2013, 12:10 AM
No, no, no, and.... no. If we are going to spend 150M on a player (which there's a 100% chance we won't) it would have to be on a pitcher. I know our hitting is seriously bad but there is help on the way. There is no help coming for our pitching staff.

I just hope the teams in contention get together and drive the price down. Will any team ever learn from these bad 100M+ deals?

I'm sure that the Giants are hating their Matt Cain contract while celebrating the World Series. The Tigers made it to the World Series based largely on the play of Verlander, Fielder and Cabrera. The Cardinals had Matt Holiday, Albert Pujols and Carpenter (which would have been a $100MM contract if it wasn't signed in 2007). The 2010 Rangers had Beltre and Kinsler. The 2009 Champion Yankees had several large contracts but I'm sure everyone is aware of that. The Phillies had Chase Utley.

In the last 5 years the only team that made the World Series and didn't have one of those huge contracts was the '08 Rays. I'd say that teams are learning. Elite players cost money and years. If you want to make the World Series you need elite players.

So at the end of the day some of these contracts might be terrible and some teams are going to be dragged down because of it but if you don't play, you can't win.

Oxtung
10-16-2013, 12:12 AM
No. Cano is going to get at least 200 million. There is zero reason to bring him in and tie up 45+ mil a year in two players for the better part of the next 6 or 7 years.

The Dodgers or Yankees will bring him in.

Mauer only has 5 years left on his deal.

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 09:22 AM
I vote NO as well.

If the Twins are going to spend in the realm of $20 million on a single player (in addition to Mauer), it has to be a pitcher. I also believe that they need to add a vocal clubhouse leader (have to figure out what position that would be at based on availabilty/need) but I think that is going to have to be a lower tier ($10-$15 m).

Please note that I am not saying that they can find a FA pitcher worth $20m or more in this off-season just that if they are going to spend big money, that's where it has to be.

The Twins' spending is horribly unbalanced, we all know that. In 2013, Mauer's contract takes up about 28% of the payroll. At its lowest percentage (2011), Mauer's "new" contract still took up over 20% of the payroll.

Take a look at this year's playoff teams and their largest current contract in relation to their total opening day payroll:

Cards: Holliday -- just under 15%
Tigers: Prince -- 16.5%
Dodgers: A Gonzales -- 10.15%
Boston: Lackey -- 10%

Indians: Swisher -- 20.15%
Pittsburgh: Burnett -- 24.6%
Rays: Price -- 16.5%
Reds: Votto -- 11.85% (will go up substantially next year but probably still won't be over 20% given the new TV revenues).

The only one of those playoff contenders who devoted more than 20% to a position player was the Indians. The big spenders had the ability to spread their money around enough that their highest players weren't taking up more than 20% of their payroll.

Even if the Twins increase their payroll back to 2011 levels (I don't really see that happening even with the new TV $$$), it would be a huge mistake to tie up another 20% or more in another position player.

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 09:36 AM
In the case of Boston, Dodgers and Tigers, those percentages would get a lot higher if they lower their payroll down to where ours is...even the Cards. But then you also need to look at the #2 and #3 paid players on their teams and see their percentages...

Mauer's contract isn't hurting us...we need to get off that myth.

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 10:05 AM
In the case of Boston, Dodgers and Tigers, those percentages would get a lot higher if they lower their payroll down to where ours is...even the Cards.

That's irrelevant because in fact they HAVE the higher payrolls.

The Cards are a bit of a different example because their payroll is in the same tier ($116-$117m) as where the Twins could be.

But they actually provide a pretty good example for the Twins. Holliday's contract is at less than 15% and although they made a strong bid for Pujols, they put on the brakes.

The point is that the Twins have a bunch of payroll tied up in ONE position player. They really can't afford to tie up another big chunk in another one as attractive as Cano may be.

Willihammer
10-16-2013, 10:30 AM
I'm not sure a second baseman is going to make that big of a difference.

The Cardinals and Red Sox might disagree.

Look at what the Tigers have done in FA since 2010.

2010 offseason: VMart
2011: Prince
2012: Anibal
2013: Cano?

I don't think any rebuild can keep pace with a rival who signs a top FA per offseason.

If the Tigers become suitors for Cano, and get him, that could easily push back the Twins window to 2020 or later.

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 10:40 AM
The Cardinals and Red Sox might disagree.

Look at what the Tigers have done in FA since 2010.

2010 offseason: VMart
2011: Prince
2012: Anibal
2013: Cano?

I don't think any rebuild can keep pace with a rival who signs a top FA per offseason.

If the Tigers become suitors for Cano, and get him, that could easily push back the Twins window to 2020 or later.

Mike Illitch won't live forever (although it may seem like some of the contracts signed under his ownership may last that long).

There have been articles floating around that the Tigers may see some retrenchment over the next few years.

It would be a mistake for the Twins to spend huge money just to keep the Tigers from getting Cano.

The Twins need to focus their money on how to improve the Twins.

diehardtwinsfan
10-16-2013, 10:41 AM
If the Twins want to spend that kind of money, go out and get Tanaka AND Abreau. I like Cano, but 2B is not nearly the pressing need that SP or a good mashing 1B is.

nicksaviking
10-16-2013, 10:43 AM
Jeter has been good, but I don't trust most middle infielder to age well. He's been extremely durable, but that also means he's played in a lot of games, and he's going to be 31 next week. I think if you're lucky you'll end up getting what you pay for the first 3 years, but then you're going to be on the hook for five more after that.

I have a feeling that [(Cano + gray hairs) - Yankee Stadium] = (early peak + quick decline).

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 10:57 AM
That's irrelevant because in fact they HAVE the higher payrolls.



Exactly...that was my whole point...the percentage of payroll for their highest paid player is irrelevant compared to percentage of payroll for our highest paid player. Those teams are on a different spending level, so why even mention them in the first place to make your point? How about instead of looking at the top paid player percentage of payroll, look at top 3 players and the total percentage of payroll? Cause our top paid guy makes 23, then our next guy makes 7 then our next guy makes around 5. That could be like 33% of what payroll should be.

On a side note, I wonder how incoming revenue (affecting available payroll) would be affected if Mauer hadn't signed here? I wonder how much of his salary is paid by the fact he's on the team...in tickets sales (and corresponding parking, concessions), merchandise, etc?

BTW, I'm not in the sign Cano lane...I'm way away from that lane.

Willihammer
10-16-2013, 11:06 AM
It would be a mistake for the Twins to spend huge money just to keep the Tigers from getting Cano.

Its only a mistake if you think Cano is a poor player. Obviously he's not, he's a terrific player.

If Cano is only worth 18 WARs over the next 6 years (he could easily be worth that many in the next 3), that is a +6 WAR swing in favor of the team that gets him, if the two suitors share a division. That's huge.

The Twins should absolutely factor the other FA suitors into their decisionmaking.

nicksaviking
10-16-2013, 11:12 AM
If the Tigers become suitors for Cano, and get him, that could easily push back the Twins window to 2020 or later.

I think it may be just the opposite, after all, the guys they are signing are already at their peak. In four years the Tigers would be the 2013 Yankees. They'd have huge unmovable contracts on five 34-35 year-olds who will undoubtedly be on the decline. And with those body types, a 35-year-old Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera might be a scary proposition.

Willihammer
10-16-2013, 11:31 AM
I think it may be just the opposite, after all, the guys they are signing are already at their peak. In four years the Tigers would be the 2013 Yankees. They'd have huge unmovable contracts on five 34-35 year-olds who will undoubtedly be on the decline. And with those body types, a 35-year-old Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera might be a scary proposition.

Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?

kab21
10-16-2013, 12:07 PM
This would be a more interesting hypothetical in 2-3 years when the Twins at least the structure of a playoff team in place. Cano would make the team better but there are holes literally everywhere on the team and they are mostly filled with terrible players. There's only so much one player can do and then he's 35ish and headed to a long, expensive decline. I will predict a 9 yr 225M contract.

Of course I'm an optimist that several of Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Meyer can become avg or better players (and one or two studs) in a couple of seasons and the Twins will find a few other avg or better players in FA. And continue to have a strong system to continue feeding the Twins. At that point you are only filling a couple of holes and dropping big money could put the team over the top.

If I was spending insane money (for the Twins) it would be 100ish/6yrs (includes posting fee) on 24 yr old Tanaka and go after a Nick Swisher type signing to take some pressure off of the prospects when called up.

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 12:11 PM
Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?

Mike Ilitch of the Clan Ilitch? :-)

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 12:22 PM
Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?

Then they'll continue to spend $184m (or more with next year's added TV $$$) trying to win a championship for an Octogenarian.

They have money coming off the books after this year (Peralta, Benoit, Infante) and next year (VMart, Torii) and they'll have some needs to fill so I could see them going after Cano.

They'll also have about $90m tied up in Prince, Verlander, Miggy and Sanchez through 2015 (the end of Miggy's contract) which still leaves them a generous amount for other parts (although Scherzer, Fister and Porcello will continue to get more expensive).

Financially the Twins can't compete with the Tigers (even without their added incentive to win a World Series for Illitch).

But the Twins still have to do what most improves the Twins. There's no use adding someone like Cano at this point because there are just too many other needs on this team.

nicksaviking
10-16-2013, 12:42 PM
Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?

Then you stab him in the heart with a wooden stake. Unless you're into this new age vampire BS that teen girls and my wife read about. I'm not sure how you kill those rediculous things.

Major Leauge Ready
10-16-2013, 01:32 PM
Exactly...that was my whole point...the percentage of payroll for their highest paid player is irrelevant compared to percentage of payroll for our highest paid player. Those teams are on a different spending level, so why even mention them in the first place to make your point? How about instead of looking at the top paid player percentage of payroll, look at top 3 players and the total percentage of payroll? Cause our top paid guy makes 23, then our next guy makes 7 then our next guy makes around 5. That could be like 33% of what payroll should be.

On a side note, I wonder how incoming revenue (affecting available payroll) would be affected if Mauer hadn't signed here? I wonder how much of his salary is paid by the fact he's on the team...in tickets sales (and corresponding parking, concessions), merchandise, etc?

BTW, I'm not in the sign Cano lane...I'm way away from that lane.

All elite players drive revenue but I think Mauer might have a bit more impact being a hometown boy. He was a better risk given his age and body type. He is going to be 35 at the end of his contract. Who knows, he could have problems like Morneau but I like our odds with him better than a guy who will be 39 or 41 if Cano gets what he wants in terms of years. Prince is a surprising athlete given his build but I could see him being a roster problem for 3-4 years. I would love to see the Tigers sign Cano to a 9 or 10 year deal. They will be really tough for 2-3 more years (while our young guys are entering the leauge) and the Twins will not have to worry about them for a few years.

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 01:54 PM
Exactly...that was my whole point...the percentage of payroll for their highest paid player is irrelevant compared to percentage of payroll for our highest paid player. Those teams are on a different spending level, so why even mention them in the first place to make your point? How about instead of looking at the top paid player percentage of payroll, look at top 3 players and the total percentage of payroll? Cause our top paid guy makes 23, then our next guy makes 7 then our next guy makes around 5. That could be like 33% of what payroll should be.

On a side note, I wonder how incoming revenue (affecting available payroll) would be affected if Mauer hadn't signed here? I wonder how much of his salary is paid by the fact he's on the team...in tickets sales (and corresponding parking, concessions), merchandise, etc?

BTW, I'm not in the sign Cano lane...I'm way away from that lane.

Well, until late August, The Twins' 2nd highest paid player made what $14 or $15 million? That would be about 45% of payroll devoted to 2 players. Without going back through a lot of data, I have no idea of what teams would have 2 players eating up that much payroll but I'm guessing it is pretty rare.

And it looks to me that if the Twins were to sign Cano, it would stay at about that 45% level (assuming a $100m payroll).

As for Mauer, I have always maintained that his contract was a business decision that had to be made. I didn't care for it for the long-term baseball interests of the Twins but I got why they signed him and I'm sure that his mere presence drives sales of merchandise and tickets (especially in good times although the % of revenue attributable to him from those items may actually be higher in bad times).

This isn't about Mauer. This is about whether the Twins should add a contract of almost that magnitude for a position player, Cano. I just can't see it working out.

ThePuck
10-16-2013, 02:09 PM
Well, until late August, The Twins' 2nd highest paid player made what $14 or $15 million? That would be about 45% of payroll devoted to 2 players. Without going back through a lot of data, I have no idea of what teams would have 2 players eating up that much payroll but I'm guessing it is pretty rare.

And it looks to me that if the Twins were to sign Cano, it would stay at about that 45% level (assuming a $100m payroll).

As for Mauer, I have always maintained that his contract was a business decision that had to be made. I didn't care for it for the long-term baseball interests of the Twins but I got why they signed him and I'm sure that his mere presence drives sales of merchandise and tickets (especially in good times although the % of revenue attributable to him from those items may actually be higher in bad times).

This isn't about Mauer. This is about whether the Twins should add a contract of almost that magnitude for a position player, Cano. I just can't see it working out.

Not sure it was 45%, but if it was it was because payroll was lower than it needed to be...anyway.

Okay...how about in the unbelievably hypothetical world where Kershaw was suddenly available? He's going to cost some coin. Don't sign him if we have the money available? I understand he's a pitcher and you said position player, but that would take about make close to half of payroll for two guys.

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 02:15 PM
Not sure it was 45%, but if it was it was because payroll was lower than it needed to be...anyway.

Okay...how about in the unbelievably hypothetical world where Kershaw was suddenly available? He's going to cost some coin. Don't sign him if we have the money available? I understand he's a pitcher and you said position player, but that would take about 1/3

I'd sign him (of course, we're in hypothetical la-la-land).

I may not have said it in my last post but in one of my earlier posts, I thought I made it clear that if the Twins were going to devote that high a percentage to a second player, I thought it had to be for pitching. I just can't see it for another position player at this point.

I still gulp to think of that high a % spent for 2 players but the Twins do have young prospects who won't be due for their big pay raises until about the end of Mauer's contract.

It's a balancing act, I realize that. And it does point out why most of your talent has to be home-grown and cost-controlled.


(I also strongly believe that the starting pitcher needs to bring some veteran leadership. Not sure that Kershaw is quite at that point but I firmly believe in players learning from other players and you have to start at some point with a high quality starting pitcher.)

kab21
10-16-2013, 07:15 PM
If the Twins were even remotely close to the position that the Tigers are currently I would love for them to sign a guy like Cano and I wouldn't care about the 2nd half of the contract. But that's the whole point of signing elite players to mega contracts. The team needs to be able to take advantage of the first half of the contract when that player is elite. The Tigers could be a mini dynastry with Cabrera, Fielder and Cano in the lineup and Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez and Fister in the rotation.

USAFChief
10-16-2013, 07:42 PM
Financially the Twins can't compete with the Tigers (even without their added incentive to win a World Series for Illitch).
According to Forbes, Twins revenues were in the $214M range, the Tigers $238M.

I think it's possibly more that the Twins choose not to compete financially with the Tigers than can't.

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 07:59 PM
According to Forbes, Twins revenues were in the $214M range, the Tigers $238M.

I think it's possibly more that the Twins choose not to compete financially with the Tigers than can't.

In fairness, I don't think most teams would sport a $184m payroll on $238m in revenues (although I would guess their revenues may be a little higher now).

Illitch is definitely willing to finance a team that could win the Series.

kab21
10-16-2013, 08:04 PM
In fairness, I don't think most teams would sport a $184m payroll on $238m in revenues (although I would guess their revenues may be a little higher now).

Illitch is definitely willing to finance a team that could win the Series.

In fairness let's use the correct numbers. 148M.

JB_Iowa
10-16-2013, 08:17 PM
In fairness let's use the correct numbers. 148M.

Oops, sorry. Should never do things from memory.

I'm still not sure that most teams spend 62% on salary although that still leaves them about 90 million for the rest of the operation and profit (probably more than that because it seems like the reports on revenue numbers still run a little behind the payroll numbers).