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Trevor0333
10-11-2013, 04:51 AM
Last off season Ryan dipped his toes in the SP FA pool and found the water much too cold for his tight pockets. Pelfrey has been about as good as you could have expected an average at best SP coming back 10 months from TJ surgery. Correa wasn't nearly as bad as expected but still was at best a solid #5.

Not liking the pickings or the prices Ryan decided to move a surplus to fill a hole moving Revere & Span for Meyer & May. Meyer could likely earn a rotation spot out of Spring Training but May struggled repeating AA and there are whispers he could be destined for a bullpen setup/closer understudy.

Trade Brian Dozier for Braves LHP Sean Gilmartin.

With the same scenario very liely playing out again this year, who are the candidates to be moved for SP? on the MLB roster the first obvious choice is 2B Brian Dozier. He is under team control for a few years cheaply but is also already 27 by next opening day. The Braves are desperate for a 2B to replace the mightlity struggling & expensive Uggla. Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.

The Braves Sean Gilmartin, a southpaw similar to Gibson in potential & stuff could be a fair value straight up. He is still just 23 and pitched in AAA last year.

Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.

nicksaviking
10-11-2013, 08:57 AM
I'm personally not a fan of Gilmartin. I only assume he gets hype because he's a lefty with good control. He doesn't strike many batters out and gives up way too many hits and runs. Two years in a row he has struggled at AAA. From my perspective, I don't see any scenario where this guy turns into a legit starting pitcher.

Siehbiscuit
10-11-2013, 09:42 AM
If the Twins are confident that Rosario can be the guy at 2B by mid-summer, I am all for maximizing on Dozier's value. Escobar can handle 2B for a while until Rosario comes up. Getting a solid to good pitcher for Dozier is a good get.

gunnarthor
10-11-2013, 09:47 AM
I like the idea of Dozier to Atlanta but I'd aim higher than Gilmartin, whose upside is a good Nick Blackburn. Probably aim for Wood (might be a reliever), Sims (A ball) or maybe Cody Martin (numbers better than his stuff) and go from there. But it looks like the two sides could easily make some kind of trade and have done so before (Diamond/Bullock).

mike wants wins
10-11-2013, 09:48 AM
If the Twins want to emulate the Braves, Cards, or As, they'd deal Dozier this offseason. I don't see it happening, though. I don't see a trade like last year's deals happening. Perkins would also be dealt, if you followed the A's.

Now, I'd do the opposite, I'd trade for David Price.....

gunnarthor
10-11-2013, 09:56 AM
Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.

Harrison is a nice sleeper prospect, I like him, but he doesn't really have value right now. If he was on another team, he'd be the add on a rebuilding team would like to sneak in but he can't headline a real trade at this point.

Beachy had TJ surgery and then got hurt again (http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/26/brandon-beachy-underwent-another-elbow-surgery/). I don't think Atlanta would want to trade him while his value was that low.

Perkins is obviously the other trade chip the FO has, if it wants to cash it.

Other teams that could use an upgrade at second (just using fWAR as a quick and dirty value system) and might be going for it next year would be Toronto, A's, Nats and Royals. Nats might be committed to Rendon at second.

spycake
10-11-2013, 11:04 AM
Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.

Span was traded just before his 29th birthday, was a lot more expensive than Dozier, and projected to provide similar value to Dozier's just-completed 2013 season (discounting Span's flukey high defensive numbers from 2012 a bit!).

Now, Span obviously had a longer track record, and thus there was more confidence in his projections going forward (although he did have some injury issues that Dozier has not yet had). But if scouts generally think Dozier's 2013 improvement will stick, he could fetch a top 100 prospect, no? Something better than Gilmartin, I would hope

That said, if the Twins think Dozier's improvement will stick, they should probably hold onto him unless they are overwhelmed by an offer. Stockpiling pitching prospects is nice, but they do need SOME good players on this team! And counting on Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc. years ahead of time probably isn't the wisest path. (An aside: that's why free agency looks so attractive. It can get you good players without having to give up any players of your own.)

ThePuck
10-11-2013, 11:19 AM
Span was traded just before his 29th birthday, was a lot more expensive than Dozier, and projected to provide similar value to Dozier's just-completed 2013 season (discounting Span's flukey high defensive numbers from 2012 a bit!).

Now, Span obviously had a longer track record, and thus there was more confidence in his projections going forward (although he did have some injury issues that Dozier has not yet had). But if scouts generally think Dozier's 2013 improvement will stick, he could fetch a top 100 prospect, no? Something better than Gilmartin, I would hope

That said, if the Twins think Dozier's improvement will stick, they should probably hold onto him unless they are overwhelmed by an offer. Stockpiling pitching prospects is nice, but they do need SOME good players on this team! And counting on Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc. years ahead of time probably isn't the wisest path. (An aside: that's why free agency looks so attractive. It can get you good players without having to give up any players of your own.)

What was flukey about Span's defensive numbers last year? His UZR this year and 2011 were better than 2012 and 2010 and 2012 are pretty close. Are you just talking DRS?

Brock Beauchamp
10-11-2013, 11:28 AM
If the Twins are confident that Rosario can be the guy at 2B by mid-summer, I am all for maximizing on Dozier's value. Escobar can handle 2B for a while until Rosario comes up. Getting a solid to good pitcher for Dozier is a good get.

The way to maximize Dozier's value is to keep him for another season and cross your fingers.

Being above average for 2/3rds of a season is impressive but it's not enough to make another team offer up a player significant enough to make a difference.

nicksaviking
10-11-2013, 12:00 PM
The way to maximize Dozier's value is to keep him for another season and cross your fingers.

Being above average for 2/3rds of a season is impressive but it's not enough to make another team offer up a player significant enough to make a difference.

I agree, though that has not been working in the Twins favor much recently. Hopefully Dozier is the exception, there definately is a high probability his AVG/OBP goes up. Of course it's just as likely his HR drop. If the power is legit though and his OBP gets back to his minor league levels, you're looking at a defensively solid 2B with a +.800 OPS under team control for four more years. That would fetch a pretty nice return I'd assume.

ThePuck
10-11-2013, 12:18 PM
I agree, though that has not been working in the Twins favor much recently. Hopefully Dozier is the exception, there definately is a high probability his AVG/OBP goes up. Of course it's just as likely his HR drop. If the power is legit though and his OBP gets back to his minor league levels, you're looking at a defensively solid 2B with a +.800 OPS under team control for four more years. That would fetch a pretty nice return I'd assume.

Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.

Brock Beauchamp
10-11-2013, 01:05 PM
Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.

A more likely scenario, I think. I really hate the idea of trading Rosario but if the front office is confident in Dozier going forward, Eddie has more value to other teams right now (for good or bad, that's just how these things shake out sometimes).

spycake
10-11-2013, 01:15 PM
What was flukey about Span's defensive numbers last year? His UZR this year and 2011 were better than 2012 and 2010 and 2012 are pretty close. Are you just talking DRS?

I was just looking at B-Ref, so yeah, DRS. I guess prorating his 2011 numbers gets close to 2012 too -- I forgot he missed half of 2011.

ThePuck
10-11-2013, 01:22 PM
I was just looking at B-Ref, so yeah, DRS. I guess prorating his 2011 numbers gets close to 2012 too -- I forgot he missed half of 2011.

IMO, he's been an under-rated defender for a few years now...I don't believe 2012 was flukey at all. Again, IMO.

Danchat
10-11-2013, 03:20 PM
I think it's not a bad idea to trade Dozier while he's hot. I don't think he'll be that great so if we can get a good pitching prospect for him pull the trigger. Rosario will be here in the summer ready to take over 2B. Until then.... Bernier?

DJL44
10-11-2013, 03:28 PM
Trading second basemen for starting pitchers almost always works out for the team getting the pitcher. Second basemen are nearly as fungible as relief pitchers.

SpiritofVodkaDave
10-11-2013, 04:34 PM
Yes, let's take the ONE legit MI this team has developed in the last 10-15 years and let's trade him.

If Rosario forces the issue then its a very good problem to have and you do something at that point.

biggentleben
10-11-2013, 04:46 PM
I like the idea of Dozier to Atlanta but I'd aim higher than Gilmartin, whose upside is a good Nick Blackburn. Probably aim for Wood (might be a reliever), Sims (A ball) or maybe Cody Martin (numbers better than his stuff) and go from there. But it looks like the two sides could easily make some kind of trade and have done so before (Diamond/Bullock).

Of those, Martin is the only option, but no way you want to get Gilmartin right now. He is more than messed up right now in the head/windup/etc.

biggentleben
10-11-2013, 04:58 PM
Trade Brian Dozier for Braves LHP Sean Gilmartin.

With the same scenario very liely playing out again this year, who are the candidates to be moved for SP? on the MLB roster the first obvious choice is 2B Brian Dozier. He is under team control for a few years cheaply but is also already 27 by next opening day. The Braves are desperate for a 2B to replace the mightlity struggling & expensive Uggla. Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.

The Braves Sean Gilmartin, a southpaw similar to Gibson in potential & stuff could be a fair value straight up. He is still just 23 and pitched in AAA last year.

Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.

Some points as a Braves writer and fan:

1. You don't want Gilmartin. Think a lefty Alex Wimmers at this point. He's messed up in his motion, in his release point, in his grips, in his footing, and in his head. He will have to be broken completely down and rebuilt to be of any value.

2. The Braves aren't desperate to replace Uggla. They have options on hand to replace him in the short-term. In fact, one of the more intriguing hitters in AFL for the Braves is a guy who may be their 2B in 2014, Tommy La Stella. They have depth at the position within their own system, so they aren't going to offer much of value.

3. Beachy is nearly untradeable. Unless the 3B thrown in the deal was actually Sano, Beachy wouldn't be mentioned, and as crazy as it sounds, you might still not get the front office to move Beachy at that point.

4. All that said, Dozier's bat/flexibility/contract could intrigue the Braves for someone like a Cody Martin, David Hale, Aaron Northcraft, or someone like that. They also have a grouping of guys like Omar Poveda who would be akin to Scott Diamond in pitchability, but not a ton of stuff.

Shane Wahl
10-11-2013, 05:10 PM
Until Rosario actually forces the issue, no decision needs to be made.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-11-2013, 06:32 PM
I think we should trade Buxton, Sano, and Rosario for prospects once they get good too while we're at it. We can just develop players for other teams. Seriously, at some point you have to start holding onto players. Trading Dozier makes NO sense at all because he's young, unproven in other's eyes, and plays an important defensive position. Sorry I have to say it that way, but I'm frustrated that once a player has value we want to kick them out. Dozier has a good chance to be our best 2B since Knoblauch. As for pitching, we're going to have to wait. Personally, I think you either pursue an elite pitching prospect or none at all. They're extremely risky and only the cream of the crop end up being the #1s, #2s, and #3s in the league. And most teams are not very keen on trading elite pitching prospects.

Kwak
10-11-2013, 06:48 PM
;)...but if the Twins toss in Duensing...

Trevor0333
10-11-2013, 07:32 PM
Good points on the Dozier/Span comparison, also I hadnt realized Gilmartin's star had fallen so. I knew the Braves had some intriguing 2b coming through the pipeline but did not think they were that mlb ready.

Joe A. Preusser
10-11-2013, 07:35 PM
Trading second basemen for starting pitchers almost always works out for the team getting the pitcher. Second basemen are nearly as fungible as relief pitchers.

Was this sarcasm?

Trevor0333
10-11-2013, 07:36 PM
I think we should trade Buxton, Sano, and Rosario for prospects once they get good too while we're at it. We can just develop players for other teams. Seriously, at some point you have to start holding onto players. Trading Dozier makes NO sense at all because he's young, unproven in other's eyes, and plays an important defensive position. Sorry I have to say it that way, but I'm frustrated that once a player has value we want to kick them out. Dozier has a good chance to be our best 2B since Knoblauch. As for pitching, we're going to have to wait. Personally, I think you either pursue an elite pitching prospect or none at all. They're extremely risky and only the cream of the crop end up being the #1s, #2s, and #3s in the league. And most teams are not very keen on trading elite pitching prospects.

I understand what you are saying, my thoughts on moving him are more in line with this team is still 2 years away from having a competent rotation. By that time dozier will be 30 and in the tail end of his arbitration years. Trading him to help stockpile the rotation options for 2014-2016 when these position players are breaking in is the best route if your not going to spend any money to augment the rotation other than Pelfrrey/Correa types.

I also believe both Rosario & Sano are ready to play next year at the mlb level.

gunnarthor
10-11-2013, 07:38 PM
I think we should trade Buxton, Sano, and Rosario for prospects once they get good too while we're at it. We can just develop players for other teams. Seriously, at some point you have to start holding onto players. Trading Dozier makes NO sense at all because he's young, unproven in other's eyes, and plays an important defensive position. Sorry I have to say it that way, but I'm frustrated that once a player has value we want to kick them out. Dozier has a good chance to be our best 2B since Knoblauch. As for pitching, we're going to have to wait. Personally, I think you either pursue an elite pitching prospect or none at all. They're extremely risky and only the cream of the crop end up being the #1s, #2s, and #3s in the league. And most teams are not very keen on trading elite pitching prospects.

I don't think we should just give him away. But if they can upgrade pitching by bringing in a guy like Alex Wood (and I don't think Atlanta would do that) it makes sense with Rosario starting at AAA next year. But if the best we can get for him is an unproven #5 starter, then we should keep him.

notoriousgod71
10-13-2013, 08:41 PM
Gilmartin is a typical Twins pitcher that everyone was terrified we'd take in the draft when he came out. It just makes so much sense since he's a mirror image of every other pitcher we have.

Siehbiscuit
10-14-2013, 09:48 AM
Looking at this year's postseason, makes me think about what type of pitchers the Twins need to be targeting. Whether its the Tigers, RedSox, Dodgers or Cards, all of these rotations have numerous guys that can miss bats. If the pitchers we do not acquire cant miss bats, I don't want them! This organization has been down this road far too many times and it has failed. Our best two pitchers in the last decade have been Santana and Liriano. Both guys missed bats. Invest in high upside arms, knowing that many of them will flame out. But to still be playing in October, these types of arms need to be throughout the organization. No trading Dozier for Diamond 2.0!

mike wants wins
10-14-2013, 09:50 AM
My theory on Dozier......

when you are AWFUL, you need to take more chances. Take a chance Rosario is ready at some point next year, and eal Dozier for a position you are short on.....like pitching, or a SS, or pitching, or maybe pitching, heck, I'd argue they need 1 more OFer while they wait on Buxton.

kab21
10-14-2013, 10:02 AM
My theory on Dozier......

when you are AWFUL, you need to take more chances. Take a chance Rosario is ready at some point next year, and eal Dozier for a position you are short on.....like pitching, or a SS, or pitching, or maybe pitching, heck, I'd argue they need 1 more OFer while they wait on Buxton.

I think they should deal Dozier for a young 2Bman that played SS in the minors and might be able to handle SS at the MLB.

I also think it would be criminal to trade someone like Dozier since they wouldn't be getting back a similarly young SS back (teams don't have a surplus of young SS's available) and there is very little hope for a starting SS coming up through the farm system for 2-3 years.

nicksaviking
10-14-2013, 10:13 AM
I don't think trading a 2B for a SS is going to ever happen. Teams with excess SS generally move one of them to 2B after all.

mike wants wins
10-14-2013, 10:39 AM
Ah, concentrate on one part, and ignore the rest....ok, trade him for pitching then. that was not really the point of the post at all.....

kab21
10-14-2013, 11:58 AM
Ah, concentrate on one part, and ignore the rest....ok, trade him for pitching then. that was not really the point of the post at all.....

That's true but this team also doesn't have a SS and there is only Polanco in the minors that looks like he could be average or better. The Twins definitely need pitching but it doesn't make sense to open holes elsewhere that are hard to fill.

The other BIG problem I have with this argument is that Dozier is probably bringing back a Worley type instead of a high potential arm. Maybe in another year when Dozier has more than 2/3's of a season of good baseball on his big league resume but right now GM's will be lukewarm to him (rightly so).

mike wants wins
10-14-2013, 12:21 PM
I did mention it is a risk, and it is based on betting that Rosario is ready half way through next year, right?

don't take the risk then....but be prepared for another awful season next year.

kab21
10-14-2013, 12:29 PM
I did mention it is a risk, and it is based on betting that Rosario is ready half way through next year, right?

don't take the risk then....but be prepared for another awful season next year.

It has nothing to do if rosario is ready half way thru next season. dozier should be given every opportunity to fill the SS hole. That is a really difficult position to fill internally or externally.

getting another Worley level pitcher back does not considerably change the Twins fortunes next season. Especially since you are making a weak offense even worse. I understand that the Twins have some great hitting prospects in the minors and the starting pitching is beyond awful but the Twins also have a terrible offense (25th in the majors).

mike wants wins
10-14-2013, 12:31 PM
I did not get you were arguing for Dozier to try SS, I'm good with that plan.....

And yes, that offense was terrible last year, it is being under rated as one of the problems, imo.

gunnarthor
10-14-2013, 02:29 PM
Looking at this year's postseason, makes me think about what type of pitchers the Twins need to be targeting. Whether its the Tigers, RedSox, Dodgers or Cards, all of these rotations have numerous guys that can miss bats. If the pitchers we do not acquire cant miss bats, I don't want them! This organization has been down this road far too many times and it has failed. Our best two pitchers in the last decade have been Santana and Liriano. Both guys missed bats. Invest in high upside arms, knowing that many of them will flame out. But to still be playing in October, these types of arms need to be throughout the organization. No trading Dozier for Diamond 2.0!

Actually, our best starting pitchers over the last decade or so have been Santana, Radke, Milton and Baker. You could also argue that Silva or Mays were just as effective as Liriano.

Liriano 7 seasons 50-52 4.33 era 98 ERA+, 783.1ip 9.8 WAR
Silva 4 seasons 47-45 4.42 era 102 ERA+, 773.2ip 9.0 WAR
Mays 6 seasons 48-65 4.85 era, 94 ERA+, 946ip 10.5 WAR

Major Leauge Ready
10-14-2013, 02:53 PM
Trading Dozier makes no sense to me. What happened to all of the talk about not selling low? He is not going to bring a front of the rotation pitcher now Why take on risk. These types of moves are desperate. The last thing we need to do know is panic and take on risks so that we can be mediocre next year at the expense of future years.

Get Rosario up here at find out of he has a ML bat. He can play in the outfied will that is being determined and we can give him some playing time at 2B. That approach at least allows us the opportunity to benefit from the best case scenario. That being Dozier plays they way he did for the last two-thirds of 2013 and Rosario demonstrates he can be a great player in this league. That would signiifcantly improve the return that would be gained if Dozier or Rosario were traded. We could also see if Rosario can play 2B and at the same time experiment with moving Dozier back to SS. Making these decisions to early just increases the odds you get it wrong.

DJL44
10-14-2013, 03:17 PM
Get Rosario up here at find out of he has a ML bat. He can play in the outfied will that is being determined and we can give him some playing time at 2B. That approach at least allows us the opportunity to benefit from the best case scenario. That being Dozier plays they way he did for the last two-thirds of 2013 and Rosario demonstrates he can be a great player in this league. That would signiifcantly improve the return that would be gained if Dozier or Rosario were traded.

That lowers the risk to the ballclub but I don't see how it improves the return. The return is based on what another team is willing to pay, not what the Twins have on their roster for talent. If a team is convinced that Brian Dozier can be their long-term answer at 2B they will find him more desirable now when they get him for a longer period of time.

mike wants wins
10-14-2013, 03:34 PM
Making the decision after a guy is bad, also makes the return lower....that's why any of these decisions carries some degree of risk.

We do not know if teams think of Dozier as legit right now or not, yet people keep saying that it is clear that we somehow know what teams think...we have no idea what any team thinks about Brian Dozier. We do not know what Dozier could return in a trade.

We do know that the Twins have a top minor league prospect at the position Dozier plays. We do know they have an insufficient number of SS, OF, and SP (and DH/1B). We also know they have few assets to trade right now. You can choose to keep Dozier, but that does not necessarily decrease the risk at all.

diehardtwinsfan
10-14-2013, 07:00 PM
Honestly, I don't think Dozier is all that valuable right now. Yes, he was a very very good 2B the second half of the season, but teams are going to want to see that repeated for a full 2014 before they are willing to trade a top 100 prospect for him, and I don't blame them.

As for the big trade this year, if Ryan trades anything for something of value, it will be relief pitchers. I fully expect one of Perkins, Fein, or Burton to not be wearing a Twins cap after winter meetings.

howeda7
10-14-2013, 08:52 PM
Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.

+1. IIRC, it seemed like the talk was that Rosario may end up as a corner OF'er? In any case, if the value is similar, I'd rather keep the sure thing this time.

ND-Fan
10-14-2013, 09:11 PM
Here's a thought Twins should maybe trade Mauer at 30 for pitching my reason is he at peak of value as a player and Twins are several years away from competing again. By the time Twins are competing Mauer will be in decline and will be 33 year old player. The Twins could stock pile some good arms for the future. Lets face it I think Twins are at least 3 years away from competing the kids coming are going need time in majors. Pittsburg kids have taken at least three years to learn how compete and win at major league level. Were one to two years away before all these kids reach major league level. Unless Twins are ready to sign free agents now I think Twins will just waste Mauers value playing on non contending teams.

Oxtung
10-14-2013, 10:24 PM
...there is very little hope for a starting SS coming up through the farm system for 2-3 years.

I think you're underselling Danny Santana quite a bit. While he isn't a top 100 prospect, but he was rated the best defensive SS in his league this season so he should have the defensive chops. He also has hit decently for a SS. He has a .712 career minor league OPS and the average major league SS's was .680. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could turn into an average hitting good fielding SS. At the very least we can hope right?


Here's a thought Twins should maybe trade Mauer...

I advocated for that last offseason when it became obvious they weren't going to try and upgrade the roster, but that ship has sailed. I find it incredibly unlikely that any GM would be willing to take on his contract and return significant prospects (which would be required to justify it to the fans) for a catcher that is coming off of a serious brain injury. He could return to all-star catcher form, need to move to 1B or his career could be ended. There is no way to know right now. There is also the small problem of his full no-trade protection.


As for the big trade this year, if Ryan trades anything for something of value, it will be relief pitchers. I fully expect one of Perkins, Fein, or Burton to not be wearing a Twins cap after winter meetings.

While Perkins might have some value and could potentially return a nice prospect or two, Fien and Burton will have next to none. They didn't end the season particularly well, their overall stat lines are mediocre, and relievers are available to be signed every off season that don't require giving up prospects to acquire.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2013, 07:16 AM
Making the decision after a guy is bad, also makes the return lower....that's why any of these decisions carries some degree of risk.

We do not know if teams think of Dozier as legit right now or not, yet people keep saying that it is clear that we somehow know what teams think...we have no idea what any team thinks about Brian Dozier. We do not know what Dozier could return in a trade.

We do know that the Twins have a top minor league prospect at the position Dozier plays. We do know they have an insufficient number of SS, OF, and SP (and DH/1B). We also know they have few assets to trade right now. You can choose to keep Dozier, but that does not necessarily decrease the risk at all.

It's possible that some team out there views Dozier as 100% legit... But it's unlikely.

GMs aren't mentally impaired (well, most of them, anyway). If you watch a player all season and still have doubts about the guy, chances are so will everyone else in the league. It's not going out on much of a limb to say that Rosario's value is considerably higher than Dozier right now. The current state of MLB is prospect-crazy and Dozier has been an up-and-down prospect, he's 26 years old, and is coming off a breakout season that surprised nearly everyone.

That doesn't mean you don't listen to offers about Dozier should someone approach you but it's extremely unlikely that anyone will offer real value for him at this point.

USAFChief
10-15-2013, 07:58 AM
Keep in mind also that Dozier ended 2013 with a .244/.312/.414 line. It looked a lot better to us because he had a better second half, because of the lineup he was in and because we're so starved for any good news.

But ultimately, an outsider is going to look at that and not be as impressed.

Oldgoat_MN
10-15-2013, 08:11 AM
I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.
He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.
Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.
Nor Buxton.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 08:39 AM
I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.
He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.
Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.
Nor Buxton.


that was a depressing end to your post......If Sano isn't up next year, I have no idea why anyone would go to a game.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2013, 08:55 AM
I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.
He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.
Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.
Nor Buxton.

.742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 09:09 AM
btw, I'm not saying Dozier would return anything, I'm only saying that I don't think we can state that he won't with such certainty that appears to be commonplace here.

I'd rather somehow he work out and that Rosario work out.....and they somehow also find pitching, but I struggle to see how that happens if they don't deal one of them, if they can.

Siehbiscuit
10-15-2013, 09:30 AM
This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 09:37 AM
I'm all for trading Perkins, he throws 40-50 innings a year (or whatever), and his value to a bad team is low, super low. There has to be a GM out there that over values closers that would give up a legit player/prospect for him.

nicksaviking
10-15-2013, 09:46 AM
.742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.

As I see it, the only way Sano doesn't come up is if he is under-performing AND the Twins by some miracle are in the playoff hunt. He'll get the call at some point next year if for no other reason than to get the fans talking about something other than the poor product on the field. That and Trevor Plouffe will surely find himself in the doghouse at some point again.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2013, 10:53 AM
This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 29 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

Dozier will be 27 next season so he still has a little upside but yeah, most of this post is spot-on.

If Dozier posts another good season in 2014, then most will view him as a solid complementary player (much like Span). But not yet.

GCTF
10-15-2013, 11:04 AM
I'm all for trading Perkins, he throws 40-50 innings a year (or whatever), and his value to a bad team is low, super low. There has to be a GM out there that over values closers that would give up a legit player/prospect for him.

Did Bill Smith find another job?

Siehbiscuit
10-15-2013, 11:45 AM
This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.

gunnarthor
10-15-2013, 02:53 PM
This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.

The Span thing isn't quite true either, though. Over his last 3 seasons with us, Span was a .334 OBP (and 94 OPS+) and avg less than 2 WAR/season. Obviously, the Nats hoped that injuries were the main cause of that. But sometimes teams make trades based on what they hope to see, not what they see.

But I agree that Perkins has the potential to bring back a difference making pitcher. I'd listen on Dozier and probably take a May/Worley type deal but not a Sean Gilmartin deal. And if other teams don't want to give that up, let him play second again. That's not a bad outcome for us either.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 03:11 PM
.............

Oldgoat_MN
10-16-2013, 11:22 AM
.742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

Not trying to say it was awful. Certainly not what Sano or Buxton did when they advanced, But few do such things. Eddie will need to start in AA and show he can hit well at that level before moving on.


.And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.

Man, I hope you're right.

kab21
10-16-2013, 11:32 AM
I think you're underselling Danny Santana quite a bit. While he isn't a top 100 prospect, but he was rated the best defensive SS in his league this season so he should have the defensive chops. He also has hit decently for a SS. He has a .712 career minor league OPS and the average major league SS's was .680. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could turn into an average hitting good fielding SS. At the very least we can hope right?



He's a better version of Florimon. Santana has poor plate discipline and I typically subtract off at least 50 pts of OPS of typical minor leaguers (unless very young or have scouting reports suggesting more potential). So I'm hoping that Santana hits for a .650 OPS and that's the kind of guy that you don't really want as a starting but can fill the position until something better is found.