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View Full Version : The Doumit, Willingham trade challenge



Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 12:30 AM
This tread has nothing to do with debating whether or not these aging has-been players should NOT be traded. It is about them BEING TRADED in the offseason.

Now here are the parameters:

1. No sane NL team would want these two players, so we are restricting this search to the AL

2. These guys will be traded separately and with at most some middling prospect like Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, or DJ Baxendale

3. The return must be a pitcher for each.

4. Said pitcher must be under 26 by April 1, 2014.

5. Said pitcher must have a K/9 of 8.0 at least in EITHER or last season OR his career.

I am excited to see who we can dig up. I am not counting on the Twins doing this because it is a woefully mismanaged organization, but this is for fun.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 12:37 AM
And if it isn't clear that such aging veterans at the end of their contracts aren't in need of moving BEFORE 2014, then I feel sorry for you. The Twins must get something for these guys and yet must also play younger players for the future. You know, this is to establish what is needed going forward instead of filling the roster with dead ends.

clutterheart
10-10-2013, 02:30 AM
Under 26 with a K/9 over 8 is a pretty good pitcher - especially if they are in the majors. Doubt you could get such a return on the guys you listed.

These are the guys I could find that roughly fit your categories did not look at career only 2013:


Name
Team
k/9
ERA
FIP
Age


Yu Darvish
Rangers
11.89
2.83
3.28
26


Chris Sale
White Sox
9.49
3.07
3.17
24


Derek Holland
Rangers
7.99
3.42
3.44
26


Chris Tillman
Orioles
7.81
3.71
4.42
25


Felix Doubront
Red Sox
7.71
4.32
3.78
25


A.J. Griffin
Athletics
7.7
3.83
4.55
25


Jose Quintana
White Sox
7.38
3.51
3.82
24


Rick Porcello
Tigers
7.22
4.32
3.53
24



Its possible I missed some, but it looks like you would have to sweeten the deal quite a bit to get players of this caliber

Since you are trading a prospect, I imagine that you are not looking to go diamond ming like Ryan did in the Butera Deal. But the Blue Jays might be looking for catcher help and they have a good system. But Doumit w/o the prospects might be able to land such AA pitchers as:

Deck Mcguire - ERA4.81 FIP: 3.58 - age 25 in AA
Dennis Tepera - ERA 4.50 FIP: 4.38 age 24 in AA

diehardtwinsfan
10-10-2013, 05:53 AM
This tread has nothing to do with debating whether or not these aging has-been players should NOT be traded. It is about them BEING TRADED in the offseason.

Now here are the parameters:

1. No sane NL team would want these two players, so we are restricting this search to the AL

2. These guys will be traded separately and with at most some middling prospect like Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, or DJ Baxendale

3. The return must be a pitcher for each.

4. Said pitcher must be under 26 by April 1, 2014.

5. Said pitcher must have a K/9 of 8.0 at least in EITHER or last season OR his career.

I am excited to see who we can dig up. I am not counting on the Twins doing this because it is a woefully mismanaged organization, but this is for fun.

Honestly, I dont' see Ryan getting much value for either of these guys this offseason. I see them as deadline moves if they bounce back.

AM.
10-10-2013, 06:06 AM
Ok, I'll play:

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees, career K/9 10.1, 2013 K/9 11.6 (turns 26 a week before your April 1 deadline)
John Lamb, KC Royals, career K/9 8.5, 2013 7.1, turns 24 in July
Manny Banuelos, career K/9 9.1, 2013 n/a, turns 23 in March

Betances has terrible control, Lamb fell apart in 2013, and Banuelos missed 2013 with at TJ.

I think the 2013 K rate is a bad criterion. If they were good last year, Willingham and Doumit wouldn't net them. This exercise should be about finding guys who were very good a few years ago, and have fallen off track. Pitchers can take several years to put it all together at the highest levels, so finding guys with good lower minors track records should be the starting point.

MichiganTwins
10-10-2013, 06:54 AM
Drew Butera's pitching stats fit, but he is too old shoot.

raindog
10-10-2013, 06:56 AM
I would trade Doumit for a bag of balls, and that's about all you could expect for him.

Willingham can have more value during the season. At least, he's not going to lose value.

kab21
10-10-2013, 07:36 AM
And if it isn't clear that such aging veterans at the end of their contracts aren't in need of moving BEFORE 2014, then I feel sorry for you. The Twins must get something for these guys and yet must also play younger players for the future. You know, this is to establish what is needed going forward instead of filling the roster with dead ends.

Doumit's place on the Twins team next year is entirely dependent on whether or not Mauer will catch. Doumit isn't a good catcher but I'm not willing to start the season with Pinto and Hermann as pretty much the only options if Mauer is moved to 1B. If Mauer is a catcher next season then Doumit needs to be gone but aiming high is getting a Miguel Sulbaran or Duke Welker level prospect for him. Doumit literally has zero trade value but somehow the Twins got a prospect for Butera.

I also don't think Willingham should be traded unless there is a legitimately good prospect involved. His trade value is pretty low right now and a trade will most likely look like a complete salary dump for the sake of getting rid of him.

And who exactly is willingham blocking at DH/OF? Arcia is the only player that really deserves playing time and even he could use some time in AAA next season. I'm definitely not okay with starting the season with Parmelee as a starter and have a bunch of Clete thomas's and Wilkin Ramirez's as plan B in case he fails. And there still isn't a good DH option which is willy's best position.

USAFChief
10-10-2013, 07:52 AM
Concur with Kab. I don't understand the obsession with getting everyone with any history of major league success off the team.

Thrylos
10-10-2013, 08:08 AM
Now here are the parameters:


2. These guys will be traded separately and with at most some middling prospect like Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, or DJ Baxendale

3. The return must be a pitcher for each.

4. Said pitcher must be under 26 by April 1, 2014.

5. Said pitcher must have a K/9 of 8.0 at least in EITHER or last season OR his career.

I am excited to see who we can dig up. I am not counting on the Twins doing this because it is a woefully mismanaged organization, but this is for fun.

I suggest we dig up the following:

Baxendale, 22, career 7.6 K/9
Duffey, 22, career 7.6 K/9
z. Jones, 22, career 12.6 K/9

gunnarthor
10-10-2013, 09:04 AM
Doumit's place on the Twins team next year is entirely dependent on whether or not Mauer will catch. Doumit isn't a good catcher but I'm not willing to start the season with Pinto and Hermann as pretty much the only options if Mauer is moved to 1B. If Mauer is a catcher next season then Doumit needs to be gone but aiming high is getting a Miguel Sulbaran or Duke Welker level prospect for him. Doumit literally has zero trade value but somehow the Twins got a prospect for Butera.

I also don't think Willingham should be traded unless there is a legitimately good prospect involved. His trade value is pretty low right now and a trade will most likely look like a complete salary dump for the sake of getting rid of him.

And who exactly is willingham blocking at DH/OF? Arcia is the only player that really deserves playing time and even he could use some time in AAA next season. I'm definitely not okay with starting the season with Parmelee as a starter and have a bunch of Clete thomas's and Wilkin Ramirez's as plan B in case he fails. And there still isn't a good DH option which is willy's best position.

This post is exactly right. Willingham can easily improve his trade value by having a few healthy months to start the season and he isn't blocking anyone. Trading now would be a mistake.

Frankly, the only two Twins that have strong trade value right now would be Perkins and possibly Dozier. (Burton and Fein might have some ok value as well). I'd much rather Ryan works the phones to see what he can get for Perkins this offseason.

Boom Boom
10-10-2013, 09:29 AM
I'd trade Doumit for whatever I could get. I get that Mauer's future as a catcher is in doubt but I honestly think that a Pinto/Herrmann combo could give the Twins at least as much offensive production as Doumit and better defense.

Willingham... I'd hold on to just in case he has a good first half. The Twins' recent history of holding on to guys to see if they can reestablish some trade value doesn't make me very optimistic about it, though.

Craig in MN
10-10-2013, 09:40 AM
Trading either of them only makes sense right now if you are trading them for someone more overpaid. You aren't going to get a great young pitcher that is overpaid.

If you stretch the requirements, though....I think an NL team still might want them, and might trade an overpaid player in return. Pittsburgh needs offense. They could use corner OFs and backup catchers and first basement. They have defensively strong options there already, and could use bench bats for pinch hitting too.

Wandy Rodriguez is expected to pick up his $13 million option there, and Pittsburgh might consider him expendible. He's not under 26, nor has a K rate of 8, of course, but that is an insane return. But if he bounces back this year, his track record is good enough that he could garner a nice prospect like that at the trade deadline. Or else he would be fairly likely get a qualifier offer, and return the Twins a high draft pick which could be a pitcher, who would be under 26 and might have a good K rate.

Wookiee of the Year
10-10-2013, 10:28 AM
I'm going to break all the rules.

What about trading Ryan Doumit to the Washington Nationals for Danny Espinosa (2B/SS)? Espinosa had a terrible year, so bad he doesn't seem to be in the Nats' future plans anymore (they were shopping him in August), and his value could be low enough that Doumit might net him while being a good buy-low candidate. The Nationals could use Doumit as a back-up or even third catcher/bench bat (given Ramos' injury history, it could be good insurance to have), and there's even some interest (http://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2013/10/monday-quickie-quick-shots.html) in the Nationals online community.

For the Twins, we know Florimon can't be a long-term answer at SS. Espinosa is an above average defensive shortstop (his natural position) with the potential for 20-20 numbers, under team control through 2016, and his versatility in playing 2B suggests he could be a stopgap at 3B pre-Sano, too. Maybe he never ends up making his way back to the majors, but that's why you might be able to get him for Doumit.

Regarding Willingham, I agree with kab21, gunnarthor, and Boom Boom. He's not really blocking anyone, and his trade value is so low right now compared to where it could be that even if there's only a 25% chance he has a good enough first half to increase his value, you might as well take that chance.

DAM DC Twins Fans
10-10-2013, 10:44 AM
I'm going to break all the rules.

What about trading Ryan Doumit to the Washington Nationals for Danny Espinosa (2B/SS)? Espinosa had a terrible year, so bad he doesn't seem to be in the Nats' future plans anymore (they were shopping him in August), and his value could be low enough that Doumit might net him while being a good buy-low candidate. The Nationals could use Doumit as a back-up or even third catcher/bench bat (given Ramos' injury history, it could be good insurance to have), and there's even some interest (http://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2013/10/monday-quickie-quick-shots.html) in the Nationals online community.


I would be in favor of this trade. I think Espinosa would be a good fit with the Twins. I doubt Nats GM would make trade straight up--we would probably have to throw one of our minor league hitters (DJ Hicks??) in.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:06 AM
I don't care if you break the rules, of course. I wasn't referring to pitchers in the majors. I like the names actually mentioned, including Espinosa.

It seems to me that holding onto these two is about winning a couple more games than otherwise. I am more concerned about winning many more games after 2014. This is done by acquiring any talent whatsoever to plug into the system and also by giving time in 2014 to actual players who will be around after 2014.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:07 AM
Basically I was thinking about A+ or so pitchers who strike out a lot of guys (and likely walk a lot, diminishing their value at the moment).

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:11 AM
I suggest we dig up the following:

Baxendale, 22, career 7.6 K/9
Duffey, 22, career 7.6 K/9
z. Jones, 22, career 12.6 K/9

Well those equivalents in other organizations would be potential targets. Adding more of those guys doesn't seem bad to me, clearly. I am dubious about more than one of these guys actually emerging, so if we can get two more of them that would increase the odds.

By "digging them up" what do you mean? None of these three gets past AA this year.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:25 AM
Ok, I'll play:

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees, career K/9 10.1, 2013 K/9 11.6 (turns 26 a week before your April 1 deadline)
John Lamb, KC Royals, career K/9 8.5, 2013 7.1, turns 24 in July
Manny Banuelos, career K/9 9.1, 2013 n/a, turns 23 in March

Betances has terrible control, Lamb fell apart in 2013, and Banuelos missed 2013 with at TJ.

I think the 2013 K rate is a bad criterion. If they were good last year, Willingham and Doumit wouldn't net them. This exercise should be about finding guys who were very good a few years ago, and have fallen off track. Pitchers can take several years to put it all together at the highest levels, so finding guys with good lower minors track records should be the starting point.

Thanks for playing! Lamb is exactly the kind of pitcher I am talking about, though with good control. He is 14th on the Royals MLB.com pipeline list.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:26 AM
Concur with Kab. I don't understand the obsession with getting everyone with any history of major league success off the team.

Are you in favor of keeping Willingham and Doumit on the team after 2014?

USAFChief
10-10-2013, 11:39 AM
Are you in favor of keeping Willingham and Doumit on the team after 2014?

Potentally, yes. I'm definafely not a fan of watching Clete Thomas types accumulate ABs in 2014.

But that decision doesn't have to be made yet.

Basically I am in favor of waiting to make room for better players until such time as those better players exist.

I am also a "buy low, sell high" advocate, so getting rid of players who have peoven in the past to have value, just for the sake of getting rid of them, doesn't appeal to me.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:55 AM
Potentally, yes. I'm definafely not a fan of watching Clete Thomas types accumulate ABs in 2014.

But that decision doesn't have to be made yet.

Basically I am in favor of waiting to make room for better players until such time as those better players exist.

I am also a "buy low, sell high" advocate, so getting rid of players who have peoven in the past to have value, just for the sake of getting rid of them, doesn't appeal to me.

Well then I respect that, certainly. Considering them beyond 2014 is interesting to me. I do think that there has to be playing time for players to be able to force the oldsters out though.

And you don't need to tell me about Clete Thomas. You do NOT have to tell me about that debacle.

Now I honestly don't hate the idea of Parmelee (learn LF, damn it)-Hicks-Arcia with Pressly as the 4th OF and Herrmann as the 5th. There's DH room there to improve the defense (best defensive alignment is likely Pressly-Hicks-Herrmann). At least this would give more data on who should be around long term IF Willingham and/or Doumit are not going to be here in 2015.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:56 AM
I said some awful things about Clete. I don't think I take them back. Good guy with good defense, though.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:58 AM
I will say that I worry about Willingham and Doumit basically becoming AAAA types in 2014. Willingham not being respected as much anymore = those walks dropping big time. Then his value is very, very limited.

Twins Twerp
10-10-2013, 12:12 PM
I don't think we could get anything for either player. No way will Doumit bring back anything. Wilingham has never really had any trade value; even after his 30+ homer season. We signed him for 3 years at 7 million and he wasn't a hot name then. Why would any team give up a young major leaguer or minor leaguer for him? The conversation makes me giggle a little bit. All of these "We need to trade this guy for a pitcher" is insanity. No **** we need pitching. No **** our lineup sucks, so no **** any GM would jump at an opportunity to trade bad players for good you pitching. Ain't...gonna...happen

Alex
10-10-2013, 01:11 PM
Concur with Kab. I don't understand the obsession with getting everyone with any history of major league success off the team.

With both Willingham and Doumit's ideal position being DH and both of them being horrible in the field, I am definitely concerned about what keeping them both means for roster flexibility next season, especially the way Gardy uses veterans (though I appreciated that he benched Willingham in favor of Pinto, maybe its a sign of things to come?). If DH is their best position and they don't hit better than last season, well....

The roster crunch comes in for two reasons. They currently prevent the team from upgrading a poor hitting and poor defensive outfield via FA or trade (unless they are involved) and by midseason we could see Rosario OF, possibly Hicks, and --longshot-- Buxton.

That said, they do have time to move one or either of them before that happens, but I'm at the point where I'd like to see them sign an OF that has a better track record defensively and offensively. But yeah, they don't necessarily need to move one of them yet.

gunnarthor
10-10-2013, 01:59 PM
I will say that I worry about Willingham and Doumit basically becoming AAAA types in 2014. Willingham not being respected as much anymore = those walks dropping big time. Then his value is very, very limited.

Actually, Willingham had only 10 fewer walks in about 35 fewer games this year. His iso on-base % was higher this year. I don't think he'll be the 2012 Willingham again but he could easily club like it was 2011 and that would be a valuable trade piece next season.

USAFChief
10-10-2013, 02:10 PM
With both Willingham and Doumit's ideal position being DH and both of them being horrible in the field, I am definitely concerned about what keeping them both means for roster flexibility next season, especially the way Gardy uses veterans (though I appreciated that he benched Willingham in favor of Pinto, maybe its a sign of things to come?). If DH is their best position and they don't hit better than last season, well....

The roster crunch comes in for two reasons. They currently prevent the team from upgrading a poor hitting and poor defensive outfield via FA or trade (unless they are involved) and by midseason we could see Rosario OF, possibly Hicks, and --longshot-- Buxton.

That said, they do have time to move one or either of them before that happens, but I'm at the point where I'd like to see them sign an OF that has a better track record defensively and offensively. But yeah, they don't necessarily need to move one of them yet.

Since I'm one who doesn't care much about corner OF defense, my position on this is probably in the minority.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-10-2013, 03:54 PM
This tread has nothing to do with debating whether or not these aging has-been players should NOT be traded. It is about them BEING TRADED in the offseason.

Now here are the parameters:

1. No sane NL team would want these two players, so we are restricting this search to the AL

Lots of restrictions, but I don't see why this you'd eliminate half the MLB teams with this. Willingham I understand a little, but as a prototypical moneyball player, I think he can contribute to any team that needs a righty. The Phillies were brave enough to try Delmon Young, so I'm sure they would be ok with Willingham. The Diamondbacks could really use him to replace Adam Eaton. He'd be a reasonable upgrade over Ludwick on the Reds. The Mets and Pirates also could use him too.

Not seeing any matches for Doumit in the NL and I'd agree he's basically a NL only guy. The Yankees and Blue Jays seem like they need a lot of help there, so maybe we could get them to donate something to us.

I'm not completely on board with trading Willingham because I'm not convinced anyone on this team could be an improvement at LF or DH. Trading him for scraps after one of his worst seasons just doesn't add up. All it would be is a payroll dump for the Pohlad's. I'd much rather see Josh out there than Clete Thomas or Alex Presley. There just aren't many outfielders at AAA or AA now that could replace him unless you convert Rosario back.

Doumit can leave for all I care. We have Mauer and Pinto who are both better and Herrmann isn't much worse than him. He sucks as a DH, so there goes that too. We'd be lucky to get what we got for Butera by trading him.

rcfarmer
10-10-2013, 04:06 PM
Here is my "find"

Ismael Guillon, threw more wild pitches last year than he had candles on his birthday cake.


Age
Tm
Lg
Lev
Aff
W
L
W-L%
ERA
G
GS
GF
CG
SHO
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
IBB
SO
HBP
BK
WP
BF
WHIP
H/9
HR/9
BB/9
SO/9
SO/BB


2010 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?year=2010)
18
Reds (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=cb17933e)
ARIZ (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=4e300f5b)
Rk
CIN
3
3
.500
3.32
12
10
1
0
0
0
57.0
39
26
21
1
23
0
73
0
0
6
227
1.088
6.2
0.2
3.6
11.5
3.17


2011 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?year=2011)
19
Billings (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=04abb76e)
PION (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=d504c323)
Rk
CIN
3
6
.333
6.57
15
15
0
0
0
0
63.0
78
57
46
11
46
0
61
4
1
13
308
1.968
11.1
1.6
6.6
8.7
1.33


2012
20
2 Teams
2 Lgs
Rk-A
CIN
6
1
.857
2.38
15
14
0
0
0
0
75.2
61
24
20
3
31
0
90
2
2
11
311
1.216
7.3
0.4
3.7
10.7
2.90


2012 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?year=2012)
20
Billings (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=e9628a07)
PION (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=b050f58c)
Rk
CIN
4
1
.800
2.29
11
10
0
0
0
0
51.0
39
16
13
1
24
0
63
2
1
9
213
1.235
6.9
0.2
4.2
11.1
2.63


2012 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?year=2012)
20
Dayton (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=72de0194)
MIDW (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=a1207761)
A
CIN
2
0
1.000
2.55
4
4
0
0
0
0
24.2
22
8
7
2
7
0
27
0
1
2
98
1.176
8.0
0.7
2.6
9.9
3.86


2013 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?year=2013)
21
Dayton (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=084c30c2)
MIDW (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/league.cgi?id=8da34e1e)
A
CIN
7
8
.467
4.75
27
26
0
0
0
0
121.1
95
72
64
14
95
0
134
1
1
26
539
1.566
7.0
1.0
7.0
9.9
1.41




I know he is national league but he has a live arm.

Spicoli
10-10-2013, 04:10 PM
Honestly they wont get anything for either of them. Maybe a prospect that will never see the MLB and if they do it will be for a pinch hit.

AM.
10-10-2013, 04:35 PM
Potentally, yes. I'm definafely not a fan of watching Clete Thomas types accumulate ABs in 2014.

But that decision doesn't have to be made yet.

Basically I am in favor of waiting to make room for better players until such time as those better players exist.

I am also a "buy low, sell high" advocate, so getting rid of players who have peoven in the past to have value, just for the sake of getting rid of them, doesn't appeal to me.

Is the Twins' FO a "buy low, sell high" advocate?

Kwak
10-10-2013, 05:05 PM
I fall into the group that bellylaughs at the idea these two could be traded--unless it was for someone worse! The Twins picking-up all salary but rookie minimum would be a prerequisite--and for what? Good teams already have guys who do what these two do and bad teams can't use them anyway.

Doumit and Willingham taking ABs away?--from whom? Those that we saw from August didn't convince me they "earned" any more ABs than these two.

iastfan112
10-10-2013, 05:43 PM
Willingham is poor defensively but he's not so bad as to be an AL only player. The fact that he only had a .700 OPS last year really means his value is trivial though, he's the one of the two I'd hold on to and hope for a rebound to close to his career numbers. If that were to happen he'd have more value at midseason anyways.

jokin
10-10-2013, 06:12 PM
Well then I respect that, certainly. Considering them beyond 2014 is interesting to me. I do think that there has to be playing time for players to be able to force the oldsters out though.

And you don't need to tell me about Clete Thomas. You do NOT have to tell me about that debacle.

Now I honestly don't hate the idea of Parmelee (learn LF, damn it)-Hicks-Arcia with Pressly as the 4th OF and Herrmann as the 5th. There's DH room there to improve the defense (best defensive alignment is likely Pressly-Hicks-Herrmann). At least this would give more data on who should be around long term IF Willingham and/or Doumit are not going to be here in 2015.

Either one too many "Pres-lees" on this roster or I just wasn't aware that Ryan Pressly was multi-talented.....:o

ashburyjohn
10-10-2013, 06:33 PM
Wilingham has never really had any trade value; even after his 30+ homer season. We signed him for 3 years at 7 million and he wasn't a hot name then.

The Hammer closed the 2012 season hurt, and given his injury history I'd have been surprised if fellow GMs had been receptive if Ryan brought the name up in conversation during the off-season.

Wookiee of the Year
10-10-2013, 09:21 PM
I don't care if you break the rules, of course. I wasn't referring to pitchers in the majors. I like the names actually mentioned, including Espinosa.
Yeah, I figured you wouldn't mind too much, or I wouldn't have bothered to post.

It's a pretty good exercise--you do have to wonder if some of these guys could be had, even with Doumit's limited value, considering how unlikely the are to develop.

Rcfarmer, whose system is Ismael Guillon in? I'm guessing the Reds', given it's the name of his Rookie Ball team?

kab21
10-10-2013, 10:15 PM
Well then I respect that, certainly. Considering them beyond 2014 is interesting to me. I do think that there has to be playing time for players to be able to force the oldsters out though.

And you don't need to tell me about Clete Thomas. You do NOT have to tell me about that debacle.

Now I honestly don't hate the idea of Parmelee (learn LF, damn it)-Hicks-Arcia with Pressly as the 4th OF and Herrmann as the 5th. There's DH room there to improve the defense (best defensive alignment is likely Pressly-Hicks-Herrmann). At least this would give more data on who should be around long term IF Willingham and/or Doumit are not going to be here in 2015.

If it's me I'm sending Arcia and Hicks to AAA for at least 2 months. they completely fell apart at the end of the season.

That leaves you with Mastro/Pressley/Parmelee as your OF starters and probably Colabello as your starting DH. Herrmann is not an MLB hitter imo and he shouldn't enter into any plans other than backup catcher with positional flexibility. I also have no idea how Parmalee can be considered as Plan A in the starting OF. He has done nothing in 2 seasons to deserve that.

There is absolutely no reason to dump Willingham so you can start the season with that mess unless you actually get something decent back for him. By the trade deadline I'm hoping that Hicks, Arcia, Buxton and Vargas are already up or are getting close.

Doumit I don't care much about since he shouldn't be a starting DH and he shouldn't be behind the plate much. At the same time I would have serious reservations starting the season with two rookies behind the plate (if Mauer moves to 1B). At that point you are one injury or one major disappointment away from a Danny Lehman type getting some serious playing time. We will be wishing that we had Doumit at that point.

stringer bell
10-10-2013, 10:16 PM
The 2012 versions of those guys had some value. The graph doesn't always go straight down (two ex-Twins, Torii and Cuddy, are evidence of that). Both are offense-first guys and if they don't hit, their value is next to nothing. I kind of expect one or both guys to have a good season in their walk year. Perhaps the Twins will get themselves something of value, buts the chances aren't great.

USAFChief
10-10-2013, 11:04 PM
The 2012 versions of those guys had some value. The graph doesn't always go straight down.
+1.

Alex
10-10-2013, 11:07 PM
Since I'm one who doesn't care much about corner OF defense, my position on this is probably in the minority.

IIRC the Twins OF defense was the worst in the league by a lot of metrics. Even if you don't buy into those, it should be obvious more range in the outfield is the difference not just between outs and hits but also singles and extra base hits. With. a team that has the worst strikeout rate in the league, you need good defense everywhere, not just up the middle.

Not sure if you watched Boston in their series but the number of balls these OF we're able to cut off and get to was notable.

i also think that Hammer's defense is a big reason he has so little value, both by metrics and the fact that he's still here, even with that 2012 season.

Just something worth considering.

jokin
10-11-2013, 12:00 AM
The Hammer closed the 2012 season hurt, and given his injury history I'd have been surprised if fellow GMs had been receptive if Ryan brought the name up in conversation during the off-season.

The Tigers accommodated us by taking Delmon off our hands, how about them repeating the favor and taking Willingham for Lefty SP Kyle Lobstein in return (both 2013 @ AAA and career Milb K/9 of 8.1- Rule 5 guy I lobbied for the Twins to take instead of Pressly)?

Probably would need to provide salary relief, but Lobstein is definitely blocked at the major league level and by superior prospects in the Tigers system. Product of the Rays system who took a big step in 2013 with a change in scenery- will be pitching in the AFL.

Trevor0333
10-11-2013, 01:23 AM
Concur with Kab. I don't understand the obsession with getting everyone with any history of major league success off the team.

I'd argue it's because their major league success is history but that also means they have little to no value.

However moving them to teams that needs depth and has plenty of $ to burn so that $10Mill can be spent on pitching I agree with 100%.

rcfarmer
10-11-2013, 06:48 AM
Yeah, I figured you wouldn't mind too much, or I wouldn't have bothered to post.

It's a pretty good exercise--you do have to wonder if some of these guys could be had, even with Doumit's limited value, considering how unlikely the are to develop.

Rcfarmer, whose system is Ismael Guillon in? I'm guessing the Reds', given it's the name of his Rookie Ball team?

He is in the Reds system, sorry forgot to include that.

shs_59
10-11-2013, 07:03 AM
Option #1

Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios, and Adam Brett Walker along with Duensing and Doumit

to San Francisco for Madison Bumgarner

(or Matt Cain and Martin Agosta)

Option #2

Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Alex Meyer, Michael Tonkin and Felix Jorge to Atlanta Braves

For Alex Wood and Lucas Sims.

mike wants wins
10-11-2013, 09:40 AM
If I could break teh rules, I'd deal both of them, just to dump salary. Then I'd sign other guys that might be better. Neither of these is good enough to help in 2015 and beyond.

TheLeviathan
10-11-2013, 11:17 AM
The biggest reason to trade these guys is our farm still needs more pitching and mediocre power hitters that are bad defensively are one of the easiest commodities to acquire.

spycake
10-11-2013, 11:53 AM
shs_59,

Bumgarner or Wood wouldn't be traded to us for anything less than Buxton or Sano, I think. Both are already quality left-handed MLB starters, and both are locked up cheaply for the next 6 years. (Wood is less proven, of course, but ultra-cheap for the next few years too).

I'd throw Cain in that group too -- even though he had a down year and makes more money, his long-term contract still has value and I don't see why the Giants would care about shedding salary right now.

And if you're willing to flip great prospects like Buxton and/or Sano for an ace, or 4+ good prospects like Rosario and Meyer, you may as well just sign an ace free agent when you have the chance. Sign Greinke or even Sanchez last winter and you don't have to give up any players, and both contracts will probably expire before any of these prospects hit arbitration much less free agency.

spycake
10-11-2013, 11:54 AM
The biggest reason to trade these guys is our farm still needs more pitching and mediocre power hitters that are bad defensively are one of the easiest commodities to acquire.

Unfortunately, that's also the biggest reason why they won't bring much back in return. Want another Duke Welker?

mike wants wins
10-11-2013, 11:59 AM
Unfortunately, that's also the biggest reason why they won't bring much back in return. Want another Duke Welker?

Trading them both brings back $10MM to spend on other FAs that might / probably have more value......imo.

ThePuck
10-11-2013, 12:25 PM
Trading them both brings back $10MM to spend on other FAs that might / probably have more value......imo.

That's good only of they actually do it on like one FA...or even do it at all.

spycake
10-11-2013, 01:53 PM
Trading them both brings back $10MM to spend on other FAs that might / probably have more value......imo.

This team doesn't need to trade anybody before it can spend $10 million on free agents.

Clearing the spots on the roster / in the lineup might help entice other free agents to come here, but I don't have a lot of confidence that this front office will pursue them or pursue the correct ones.

mike wants wins
10-11-2013, 02:09 PM
I share your doubts.......but it's why I would deal them.

Shane Wahl
10-11-2013, 05:21 PM
It's funny how there are those who think "we won't get much back for either of them" yet those same people actually want to hang onto those players for more wins in 2014 or something (Chief doesn't count here). I can see 2-3 more wins combined, yes. But that is why I think that "much back" is in the eye of the beholder. Think someone dead on between Sulbaran and Welker.

And I certainly do not like having both of them on the same roster. Both will start, which means one of them is going to cause defensive problems somewhere.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-11-2013, 06:54 PM
It's funny how there are those who think "we won't get much back for either of them" yet those same people actually want to hang onto those players for more wins in 2014 or something (Chief doesn't count here). I can see 2-3 more wins combined, yes. But that is why I think that "much back" is in the eye of the beholder. Think someone dead on between Sulbaran and Welker.

And I certainly do not like having both of them on the same roster. Both will start, which means one of them is going to cause defensive problems somewhere.

It's funny that you think people want Willingham and Doumit. Willingham can possibly contribute to the Twins in the future if put in the right situation (Think Danny V for the O's at worst), but what do you think teams will give up for a 34 year old OF coming off his worst season? You're not going to get a top 150 pitching prospect and those are the only ones worth trading for. No one wants to pay him 7 million a season, but we can so why not keep a high OBP guy? Hammer produced over 2 WAR for 5 years straight prior to 2013. Then, also consider that your replacement level guy is Clete Thomas and I think it adds some more. Doumit is terrible through and through and won't provide playing value or trade value. I don't think there's any question about him.

Trevor0333
10-11-2013, 08:13 PM
Well then I respect that, certainly. Considering them beyond 2014 is interesting to me. I do think that there has to be playing time for players to be able to force the oldsters out though.

And you don't need to tell me about Clete Thomas. You do NOT have to tell me about that debacle.

Now I honestly don't hate the idea of Parmelee (learn LF, damn it)-Hicks-Arcia with Pressly as the 4th OF and Herrmann as the 5th. There's DH room there to improve the defense (best defensive alignment is likely Pressly-Hicks-Herrmann). At least this would give more data on who should be around long term IF Willingham and/or Doumit are not going to be here in 2015.

A Parmelee/Plouffe platoon makes so much sense it will never happen.

TheLeviathan
10-11-2013, 08:27 PM
Unfortunately, that's also the biggest reason why they won't bring much back in return. Want another Duke Welker?

It's better than nothing. And I think there was more potential out there than that for both of them last year that we passed on.

This team forms unhealthy attachments very quickly with some types of guys.

kab21
10-11-2013, 10:31 PM
It's funny how there are those who think "we won't get much back for either of them" yet those same people actually want to hang onto those players for more wins in 2014 or something (Chief doesn't count here). I can see 2-3 more wins combined, yes. But that is why I think that "much back" is in the eye of the beholder. Think someone dead on between Sulbaran and Welker.

And I certainly do not like having both of them on the same roster. Both will start, which means one of them is going to cause defensive problems somewhere.

You put out a lineup of RF - Parmelee, CF - Mastro, LF - Pressley, DH - Colabello, SS - Florimon, 3B - Plouffe and C - Pinto/Herrmann and you are looking at a potential 110 loss team with this rotation. The only hope for the team is that Buxton, Sano and a couple of other rookies (that aren't blocked by Willy) come up and are awesome from day one.

Now if your goal is to be worse than the Marlins/Astros then it makes sense.

Shane Wahl
10-12-2013, 12:41 AM
It's funny that you think people want Willingham and Doumit. Willingham can possibly contribute to the Twins in the future if put in the right situation (Think Danny V for the O's at worst), but what do you think teams will give up for a 34 year old OF coming off his worst season? You're not going to get a top 150 pitching prospect and those are the only ones worth trading for. No one wants to pay him 7 million a season, but we can so why not keep a high OBP guy? Hammer produced over 2 WAR for 5 years straight prior to 2013. Then, also consider that your replacement level guy is Clete Thomas and I think it adds some more. Doumit is terrible through and through and won't provide playing value or trade value. I don't think there's any question about him.

Only current top 150 prospects are worth trading for? That is a preposterous claim. Travis Harrison, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, DJ Baxendale, Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Zach Jones, and on and on and on are not top 150 prospects right now.

Shane Wahl
10-12-2013, 12:42 AM
Also that Willingham could potentially mean two more wins for the Twins in 2014 is utterly meaningless.

Shane Wahl
10-12-2013, 12:43 AM
2013 BR WAR: Josh Willingham 0.3, Chris Parmelee 0.5.

Shane Wahl
10-12-2013, 12:44 AM
You put out a lineup of RF - Parmelee, CF - Mastro, LF - Pressley, DH - Colabello, SS - Florimon, 3B - Plouffe and C - Pinto/Herrmann and you are looking at a potential 110 loss team with this rotation. The only hope for the team is that Buxton, Sano and a couple of other rookies (that aren't blocked by Willy) come up and are awesome from day one.

Now if your goal is to be worse than the Marlins/Astros then it makes sense.

Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia? Not in your plans at all?

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-12-2013, 12:45 AM
Only current top 150 prospects are worth trading for? That is a preposterous claim. Travis Harrison, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, DJ Baxendale, Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Zach Jones, and on and on and on are not top 150 prospects right now.

Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, DJ Baxendale, and Trevor May will not be #3 SPs or better. Also, I didn't say "top 150 prospects". I said "top 150 pitching prospects" or pitching prospects who would rank in an overall top 150.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-12-2013, 12:51 AM
2013 BR WAR: Josh Willingham 0.3, Chris Parmelee 0.5.

Because 481 ABs takes precedence over a 5 year trend. If 2 wins is meaningless, how are you going to get those 2 wins back in a trade? You'd really have to cross your fingers that we don't get some Hendriks/Hernandez #6 pitcher in return.

Also I apologize for not multi-quoting, people.

Shane Wahl
10-12-2013, 12:55 AM
Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, DJ Baxendale, and Trevor May will not be #3 SPs or better. Also, I didn't say "top 150 prospects". I said "top 150 pitching prospects" or pitching prospects who would rank in an overall top 150.

My bad about sorta not understanding you. I read it as top 150 prospects who are pitchers. You then indicate that you mean strictly pitchers, but then say "overall top 150" so I still don't know what you mean, but even then it doesn't matter. Such prospect lists are pretty volatile. Players on the Twins top 50 list from last year have jumped up pretty far in one year. I don't know why anyone could see an actual detriment in getting two roughly 20-25 Twins org prospects in exchange for 10 million dollars of potential mediocrity from players who are likely to not be good at all after 2014. But those two players might serve actual contending teams well.

I don't want to reduce what I am saying to this, but maybe it needs to be said: there is a lot of room between a "bag of baseballs" and "top prospects."

glunn
10-12-2013, 12:55 AM
That is a preposterous claim.

Moderator note -- I realize that you guys are having a spirited discussion, but language like this is inherently disrespectful and potentially inflammatory.

It's OK to say you disagree, and forcefully argue why. But when you characterize someone else's idea a "preposterous", this actually weakens your argument and your ability to persuade the other person. It is better when you explain in a friendly way why you feel that their position is preposterous. Then, the other person might even be persuaded that they were wrong, or at the very least they will respond with respect.

You are having a good discussion. Please keep it within TD policy.

Shane Wahl
10-12-2013, 01:00 AM
Because 481 ABs takes precedence over a 5 year trend. If 2 wins is meaningless, how are you going to get those 2 wins back in a trade? You'd really have to cross your fingers that we don't get some Hendriks/Hernandez #6 pitcher in return.


Also I apologize for not multi-quoting, people.



They aren't the same age though, not even close. Willingham is clearly starting to decline and there is the potential still for Parmelee to become adequate. Shedding Willingham and Doumit has effects on Parmelee, Arcia, Pinto, and Herrmann (AKA players who could actually be around after 2014). It also sheds $10 million to spend elsewhere (could easily amount to 2 wins by itself!). And then the actual traded-for players are gambles, but it is something for the future, unlike keeping aging veterans who are only valuable at the DH on a REBUILDING team.

Shane Wahl
10-12-2013, 01:05 AM
Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.

USAFChief
10-12-2013, 01:15 AM
Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.

Maybe two of them start the season in AAA while Willingham and/or Doumit have a hot start and reclaim some trade value. Both were legit major league players as recently as 2012. Or maybe Hammer and/or Doumit contribute to a team that is better than we have any right to hope for. Or maybe they both tank even worse than they did in 2013, and you can't even get what little you'd get now for them. I think that's a risk worth taking...it's really not much of a risk at all.

In any case, if/when better players are on hand, I would guess the "problem" will resolve itself. Until then, I don't see the rush.

freshinthehouse
10-12-2013, 05:05 AM
I don't think it would be too far fetched for Willingham to have an OPS are .850 around mid-season. If so, I think the return you could get would make it worth keeping him around for 2-3 months, especially when he isn't really blocking anyone.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-12-2013, 05:32 PM
My bad about sorta not understanding you. I read it as top 150 prospects who are pitchers. You then indicate that you mean strictly pitchers, but then say "overall top 150" so I still don't know what you mean, but even then it doesn't matter. Such prospect lists are pretty volatile. Players on the Twins top 50 list from last year have jumped up pretty far in one year. I don't know why anyone could see an actual detriment in getting two roughly 20-25 Twins org prospects in exchange for 10 million dollars of potential mediocrity from players who are likely to not be good at all after 2014. But those two players might serve actual contending teams well.

I don't want to reduce what I am saying to this, but maybe it needs to be said: there is a lot of room between a "bag of baseballs" and "top prospects."

That's fine. What I mean is a player with top of the rotation potential will alone put him in a general top 150 (for all prospects). Not often do you see pitchers come out of no where.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-12-2013, 05:34 PM
Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.

Herrmann should, but the others should stay. Chris was bad with Twins and even worse with the Red Wings.


They aren't the same age though, not even close. Willingham is clearly starting to decline and there is the potential still for Parmelee to become adequate. Shedding Willingham and Doumit has effects on Parmelee, Arcia, Pinto, and Herrmann (AKA players who could actually be around after 2014). It also sheds $10 million to spend elsewhere (could easily amount to 2 wins by itself!). And then the actual traded-for players are gambles, but it is something for the future, unlike keeping aging veterans who are only valuable at the DH on a REBUILDING team.

My personal feeling is it was a clubhouse thing and the "suckage" was contagious. A few injury issues here and there for Josh too. What's 10 million to spend elsewhere when we currently have 50 million we aren't spending elsewhere? Also, you don't win a division with a bunch of 20 year old kids. You need veterans, especially since the coaching staff sure as hell can't teach these kids anything.

Shane Wahl
10-13-2013, 12:07 AM
That's fine. What I mean is a player with top of the rotation potential will alone put him in a general top 150 (for all prospects). Not often do you see pitchers come out of no where.

I just don't think those are the only players worth trading for. The Twins don't have more than one current clear-cut 3-5 person in their rotation for 2014.

kab21
10-13-2013, 03:37 AM
I just don't think those are the only players worth trading for. The Twins don't have more than one current clear-cut 3-5 person in their rotation for 2014.

Isn't this irrelevant? Neither Willy nor doumit is landing a clear cut starter for 2014. The best case is that they land an intriguing rk ball prospect that might be up in 3+ years. Despite people slamming the MiLB pitching depth the Twins actually have several intriguing low level pitching prospects.

I think a comparable for Willy is the Morneau trade and that was done in August when he was only owed a little money and he was currently healthy. That netted a 4th OF'er and an inconsistent MLB ready RP'er. That is hardly overwhelming.

Shane Wahl
10-13-2013, 08:29 AM
Isn't this irrelevant? Neither Willy nor doumit is landing a clear cut starter for 2014. The best case is that they land an intriguing rk ball prospect that might be up in 3+ years. Despite people slamming the MiLB pitching depth the Twins actually have several intriguing low level pitching prospects.

I think a comparable for Willy is the Morneau trade and that was done in August when he was only owed a little money and he was currently healthy. That netted a 4th OF'er and an inconsistent MLB ready RP'er. That is hardly overwhelming.

Sorry, I was just making the point that there is value in players who may only top out at bottom 3/5 of the rotation in general. That is, it is conceivable that the same problem presents itself to the Twins in 2015 without Correia and maybe Meyer, Gibson, and May as 1-2-3.

And yes there is a fairly loaded bottom third of the system in terms of starting pitching.

Shane Wahl
10-13-2013, 08:33 AM
I still think the very viable target lies between the Butera and Morneau trades. One reason I say that is because I think the Twins were actually looking for someone like Presley--someone MLB-ready to play every day in the OF. This focused the search in the Pirates system instead of targeting younger pitching.

kab21
10-13-2013, 12:29 PM
Sorry, I was just making the point that there is value in players who may only top out at bottom 3/5 of the rotation in general. That is, it is conceivable that the same problem presents itself to the Twins in 2015 without Correia and maybe Meyer, Gibson, and May as 1-2-3.

And yes there is a fairly loaded bottom third of the system in terms of starting pitching.

So this is your quest to find a bottom of the rotation arm in a few years and aim for 110 losses next season?

Shane Wahl
10-13-2013, 12:40 PM
So this is your quest to find a bottom of the rotation arm in a few years and aim for 110 losses next season?

No. First I realize it's a gamble to hope for two starters down the road. Second, it isn't clear to me that Willingham and Doumit and their 1,000 plate appearances is really going to be an improvement over those 1,000 plate appearances going to whatever combination of Arcia, Parmelee, Pinto, and Herrmann. It certainly isn't a matter of more than a couple wins. It could very well be the opposite. Third, I don't see how giving 1,000 plate appearances to those two does any good for the future of the Twins beyond 2014.

Shane Wahl
10-13-2013, 12:45 PM
And fourth, again, that $10.5 million or whatever would look better when given to a FA starting pitcher. It's conceivable that a straight up swapping out of Willingham and Doumit for one of those FA starters would balance the wins and losses. Plus getting playing time for actual future Twins and getting a couple minor league pitchers back . . .

kab21
10-13-2013, 10:02 PM
The Twins have so much money to spend in FA that it's not even a factor. 1 yr contracts basically have no effect on the Twins at this point. The problem with FA is that most (probably all) good FA pitchers are going to require 5 yrs.

You are still overestimating the quality of the prospect that you would receive especially in a Doumit trade.

Let's take some time to actually look at how awful the Twins lineup would be. Ranked roughly by ability.


Mauer (1B I guess)







Dozier - 2B
Arcia (should spend 2+ months in AAA)


Plouffe - 3B
Pinto - C
Colabello - DH
Parmelee - RF
Mastro - CF


Hicks - (should spend 2+ months in AAA)
Pressley - LF I guess
florimon - SS

This is a truly awful lineup. The only hope that the Twins have a top 20 offense is if the rookies and almost rookies (Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, etc...) are up earlier than expected and are really good immediately. 110 losses here we come.

Major Leauge Ready
10-14-2013, 08:45 AM
I can't come up with a good reason to keep Doumitt.
Willingham, I can see a few reasons.
1. His $7M is not likely to matter in terms of budget so there is likely to utility in terms of managing budget.
2. If he bounces back to somewhere near 2012, he could net a decent prospect.
3. He appears to be a good clubhouse guy and we already lack leadership.
4. He likely won't be blocking anyone. Even if all of the "prospects" are playing as well as we could hope, he can DH.

I see no reason to keep him after the trade deadline. Move him for whatever you can get, including nothing if that's all his performance warrants.

nicksaviking
10-14-2013, 09:06 AM
I'm a gambling man, at least when it comes to the assets the Pohlad's control, so I'm more inclined to hold onto Willingham and hope his trade value increases by July. Though I do wonder, even if he has a season akin to 2012, is his value for the last 2-3 months of the season going to be any higher than it will be now for a full season? Teams haven't been willing to part with much at the trade deadline lately, particularly for rentals. The difference on return might not be all that much, stats be damned.

Alex
10-14-2013, 01:20 PM
The Twins have so much money to spend in FA that it's not even a factor. 1 yr contracts basically have no effect on the Twins at this point. The problem with FA is that most (probably all) good FA pitchers are going to require 5 yrs.

You are still overestimating the quality of the prospect that you would receive especially in a Doumit trade.

Let's take some time to actually look at how awful the Twins lineup would be. Ranked roughly by ability.


This is a truly awful lineup. The only hope that the Twins have a top 20 offense is if the rookies and almost rookies (Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, etc...) are up earlier than expected and are really good immediately. 110 losses here we come.

The problem is the lineup doesn't get dramatically better with Doumit and Willingham in there. I mean, we all hope it does, but....

I do think that part of the assumption in trading them (at least my hope) is they bring in a younger, better hitter.

kab21
10-14-2013, 09:45 PM
The problem is the lineup doesn't get dramatically better with Doumit and Willingham in there. I mean, we all hope it does, but....

I do think that part of the assumption in trading them (at least my hope) is they bring in a younger, better hitter.

Doumit I don't really care about. He's not a good enough hitter unless he's catching and he's terrible at catching. But Willingham is the 2nd best hitter on the team. I don't see how that is even debatable. Perhaps he is injured again and sucks but when the next best hitter is Brian Dozier there isn't a lot of competition.

Alex
10-14-2013, 10:25 PM
Doumit I don't really care about. He's not a good enough hitter unless he's catching and he's terrible at catching. But Willingham is the 2nd best hitter on the team. I don't see how that is even debatable. Perhaps he is injured again and sucks but when the next best hitter is Brian Dozier there isn't a lot of competition.

Please note my use of the words "dramatically "and "hope." Saying someone is the second best hitter on this team is like saying, well, someone is the best pitcher on this team -- ie not much. I'd argue that Arcia will probably fit that bill next year, but again, that's hope.

But, more to the point, Willingham had one good month in 2013, one. I realize he was hurt some of the season and hopefully he comes back to some kind of form, but I think an .800 OPS is a questionable hope. Until he shows that last year was a fluke and not a sign of decline (not unusual in a 34 year-old power hitter -- 35 next season), I don't know how the notion that he improves the lineup "dramatically" or is the "2nd best hitter on the team" isn't debatable.

USAFChief
10-14-2013, 11:38 PM
Please note my use of the words "dramatically "and "hope." Saying someone is the second best hitter on this team is like saying, well, someone is the best pitcher on this team -- ie not much. I'd argue that Arcia will probably fit that bill next year, but again, that's hope.

But, more to the point, Willingham had one good month in 2013, one. I realize he was hurt some of the season and hopefully he comes back to some kind of form, but I think an .800 OPS is a questionable hope. Until he shows that last year was a fluke and not a sign of decline (not unusual in a 34 year-old power hitter -- 35 next season), I don't know how the notion that he improves the lineup "dramatically" or is the "2nd best hitter on the team" isn't debatable.
Willingham is a career .830 OPS, 122 OPS+ MLB hitter over 4200+ PAs. Prior to 2013, he last failed to put up an .800 OPS in his second big league season, 2005. He had an .890 OPS as recently as 2012.

Now maybe he has fallen off a cliff at age 34. Then again, he might just have had a down season, like thousands of big leaguers in the past, and he'll put up decent numbers again. If i were a betting man, I'd put even money on him having a higher OPS in 2014 than any current Twin not named Mauer.

He doesn't improve any teams lineup "dramatically." He has, however, certainly improved the Twins lineup over the alternatives in both his seasons here. In any case I see literally almost no downside to keeping him.

kab21
10-14-2013, 11:44 PM
Willingham has had one <.800 OPS season since 2005. It is far more likely that he OPS's better than almost every option the Twins have at LF/RF/DH. And that includes Arcia who I like a lot long term still.

I guess it just comes down the fact that I'm dead set against being in the position where Parmelee and some random guy like Colabello almost have guaranteed starting positions before spring training starts. I'm not even very excited about Arcia opening the year in the majors. If it was the case where the twins had 2 really good players at LF/RF/DH and we were just looking for one youngster to step up then Willy is expendable but the Twins could be starting the season with below average hitters at almost every spot in the lineup.

And we are talking about getting rid of Willingham for someone barely rated in the top 200? Really? How bad does everyone want next season to be? It's unlikely to be good but I really don't want a 110 loss season after 3 straight 90+ loss seasons.

TheLeviathan
10-15-2013, 06:27 AM
Injury prone players at 34 are a bad thing to plan on OPSing anything. And no field/some slug corner players are some of the easiest to find if you need to.

Alex
10-15-2013, 07:34 AM
Injury prone players at 34 are a bad thing to plan on OPSing anything. And no field/some slug corner players are some of the easiest to find if you need to.

Thanks, this was going to be my next point. It's not just that there's concern over whether he has declined but that if he doesn't hit well, he doesn't have much else he can do.

USAFChief
10-15-2013, 07:44 AM
Injury prone players at 34 are a bad thing to plan on OPSing anything. And no field/some slug corner players are some of the easiest to find if you need to.
So what's the upside of giving him away this winter? What's the downside of not giving him away?

Alex
10-15-2013, 07:58 AM
I guess it just comes down the fact that I'm dead set against being in the position where Parmelee and some random guy like Colabello almost have guaranteed starting positions before spring training starts. I'm not even very excited about Arcia opening the year in the majors. If it was the case where the twins had 2 really good players at LF/RF/DH and we were just looking for one youngster to step up then Willy is expendable but the Twins could be starting the season with below average hitters at almost every spot in the lineup.


It may have been missed, but I'm not for trading Willingham outright. I'm for trading him provided a suitable replacement bat and more flexible player (someone who isn't ideally suited to just DH) would be placed in his spot


He doesn't improve any teams lineup "dramatically." He has, however, certainly improved the Twins lineup over the alternatives in both his seasons here. In any case I see literally almost no downside to keeping him.

I think it's a bit much to say there is "no" downside but I definitely see more upside keeping him over Doumit.

kab21
10-15-2013, 10:08 AM
But what is the downside to keeping him? It's pretty much non-existent. Maybe he gets injured and completely sucks but the money is basically a sunk cost. I would be shocked if a team offered a trade where they took the whole salary. And the Twins already have 50M left to spend this winter and it's almost guaranteed that they don't spend all of that. Additionally there are almost no legitimate prospects that he is taking playing time from. If Arcia can't outhit the likes of Parmelee, Colabello, Pressley, Mastro then he shouldn't get a starting spot.


I do think that part of the assumption in trading them (at least my hope) is they bring in a younger, better hitter.

This really doesn't work since younger, better hitters usually are expensive in FA or you have to trade something valuable to get them. If this is your plan I hope that you reconsider because it's more likely that you are getting Clete Thomas part II as a replacement.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 10:30 AM
The downside is he is an awful defender, and they will continue to trot him out in LF. Oh, and he's old, and not likely to be really, really good.

kab21
10-15-2013, 10:37 AM
The downside is he is an awful defender, and they will continue to trot him out in LF. Oh, and he's old, and not likely to be really, really good.

Let's consider the alternatives and the downsides associated with them.

Pressley - can't really hit
Parmelee - hasn't hit in the majors and not a good defender
Colabello - basically a 30 yr old rookie that is not a good defender
Mastro - possibly playing CF and not much of a hitter
Arcia - completely fell apart in the 2nd half but should be up for good at some point next season

Willingham has his flaws but his competition (pick 3 as starters) completely sucks.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 10:51 AM
Actually, his competition includes:

Jacoby Ellsbury
Shin Shoo Choo
Nate McClouth
Grady Sizemore

and a few others that are also options.....if you think he is a LFer. Willingham can't field at all, and these pitchers are terrible. I'd rather have Pressley catch the ball, and not hit, than Josh hit (maybe) and not field.

Actually, I'd rather sign Ellsbury.....

USAFChief
10-15-2013, 11:46 AM
Actually, his competition includes:

Jacoby Ellsbury
Shin Shoo Choo
Nate McClouth
Grady Sizemore

and a few others that are also options.....if you think he is a LFer. Willingham can't field at all, and these pitchers are terrible. I'd rather have Pressley catch the ball, and not hit, than Josh hit (maybe) and not field.

Actually, I'd rather sign Ellsbury.....
If trading Hammer means the Twins end up with an OF of Ellsbury, Choo and Mcclouth, sign me up.

I'm skeptical that's what trading Hammer means though.

kab21
10-15-2013, 12:04 PM
Actually, his competition includes:

Jacoby Ellsbury
Shin Shoo Choo
Nate McClouth
Grady Sizemore

and a few others that are also options.....if you think he is a LFer. Willingham can't field at all, and these pitchers are terrible. I'd rather have Pressley catch the ball, and not hit, than Josh hit (maybe) and not field.

Actually, I'd rather sign Ellsbury.....

So Ellsbury fills one of those positions (or CF). There's still another corner OF position (or two) and DH to fill with crap. And I highly doubt the Twins are going to sign multiple FA OF'ers. For the record I am not really against signing an OF'er despite the MiLB depth. But I would also keep Willy (at least until the trade deadline) because the rest of the options completely suck.

mike wants wins
10-15-2013, 12:12 PM
So Ellsbury fills one of those positions (or CF). There's still another corner OF position (or two) and DH to fill with crap. And I highly doubt the Twins are going to sign multiple FA OF'ers. For the record I am not really against signing an OF'er despite the MiLB depth. But I would also keep Willy (at least until the trade deadline) because the rest of the options completely suck.

for me.....

Arcia in RF, FA in CF or LF, and one of their backup types in LF/CF, until Hicks or Buxton is ready. That's what I would do for the OF next year. For DH, I'd probably take a flyer on a guy that has more positional flexibility than Willingham. I think even if Hicks and Buxton and Arcia all work out, you still have room for a legit OF/DH type. And, I think there is more good FA available in the OF than in the starting pitching world. I'd be happy if they moved Willingham, and signed a legit OF. Frankly, I do not expect it to happen.

edit: I don't think they can fix everything in one year (well, they could, but they won't), so for me, signing a legit FA OF helps in 14 and beyond.

Shane Wahl
10-15-2013, 01:06 PM
Of those guys, only Grady Sizemore is within the Twins budget.

Alex
10-15-2013, 01:21 PM
Let's consider the alternatives and the downsides associated with them.

Pressley - can't really hit
Parmelee - hasn't hit in the majors and not a good defender
Colabello - basically a 30 yr old rookie that is not a good defender
Mastro - possibly playing CF and not much of a hitter
Arcia - completely fell apart in the 2nd half but should be up for good at some point next season

Willingham has his flaws but his competition (pick 3 as starters) completely sucks.

If by Arcia "falling apart completely in the second half" you actually mean increasing his OPS by 20 points, then yes, he fell apart. His OBP and AVG did leave something to be desired, but then, wasn't he hurt as well?

As for the rest, I won't disagree with you completely on Cola or Parmelee, but I don't think that Pressley or Mastro are really in the same category and shouldn't be considered fill ins because they can play any outfield position and should be 4th OF anyway.


This really doesn't work since younger, better hitters usually are expensive in FA or you have to trade something valuable to get them. If this is your plan I hope that you reconsider because it's more likely that you are getting Clete Thomas part II as a replacement.

As for this point, if we're talking about better than his career numbers, you're right. However, I was referring to a better hitter than he was last season (and better than I think he'll be next season). Not to mention that if we're just looking for a DH, it really wouldn't cost that much. "Younger hitters" is a pretty big group.

stringer bell
10-15-2013, 02:25 PM
Willingham is a career .830 OPS, 122 OPS+ MLB hitter over 4200+ PAs. Prior to 2013, he last failed to put up an .800 OPS in his second big league season, 2005. He had an .890 OPS as recently as 2012.

Now maybe he has fallen off a cliff at age 34. Then again, he might just have had a down season, like thousands of big leaguers in the past, and he'll put up decent numbers again. If i were a betting man, I'd put even money on him having a higher OPS in 2014 than any current Twin not named Mauer.

He doesn't improve any teams lineup "dramatically." He has, however, certainly improved the Twins lineup over the alternatives in both his seasons here. In any case I see literally almost no downside to keeping him.Agree 100% with the Chief. Or as his avatar might say "shazam" or "goolllliie"

TheLeviathan
10-15-2013, 05:27 PM
So what's the upside of giving him away this winter? What's the downside of not giving him away?

You play someone that MAY be a part of the future. Look at Brandon Moss as an example of a team investing at-bats in at least the possibility of future contributions. Willingham offers ZERO future productivity. At least give someone with a 1 or 5 or 20 percent chance a shot.

And, for the record, I was for dealing him last year. I maintain it was foolish to argue his value would be higher this year. His value (whatever it may have been) was highest last July. And he should've been dealt then.

Wookiee of the Year
10-16-2013, 09:39 AM
I'm going to derail (re-rail?) this conversation by jumping back to a response to my comment on page 1.


I would be in favor of this trade. I think Espinosa would be a good fit with the Twins. I doubt Nats GM would make trade straight up--we would probably have to throw one of our minor league hitters (DJ Hicks??) in.
The comments on Nick's 5 Offseason Predictions (http://twinsdaily.com/2408-five-offseason-minnesota-twins-predictions.html) article got me thinking: What if the Twins dealt Doumit and Duensing for Espinosa? Would that be enough? I know the Nats had a dearth of lefty bullpen options this past season.

diehardtwinsfan
10-16-2013, 10:46 AM
I'm going to derail (re-rail?) this conversation by jumping back to a response to my comment on page 1.


The comments on Nick's 5 Offseason Predictions (http://twinsdaily.com/2408-five-offseason-minnesota-twins-predictions.html) article got me thinking: What if the Twins dealt Doumit and Duensing for Espinosa? Would that be enough? I know the Nats had a dearth of lefty bullpen options this past season.

I know Espinosa's value has dropped, but that's a pretty big drop. Duensing will likely have some value to a pen starved team, but at the price of his arb contract he's not going to garner much. Doumit is probably worthless at the moment. I could see him getting a sulbaran type guy at next year's deadline if he hits more like 2012 Doumit than 2013.

kab21
10-16-2013, 11:16 AM
If by Arcia "falling apart completely in the second half" you actually mean increasing his OPS by 20 points, then yes, he fell apart. His OBP and AVG did leave something to be desired, but then, wasn't he hurt as well?

As for the rest, I won't disagree with you completely on Cola or Parmelee, but I don't think that Pressley or Mastro are really in the same category and shouldn't be considered fill ins because they can play any outfield position and should be 4th OF anyway.


Arcia struck out 35% of the time and walked just 5% of the time in the 2nd half. So his OPS might have increased a little because of a couple extra HR's but those K and BB numbers are absolutely awful. I consider awful plate discipline as falling apart. i think he has a special raw ability for hitting but it's going to take some time.

Pressley and mastro are 4th OF'ers and should be considered plan B or C for starting positions. The Twins should not start the season with either in a starting role unless there is an injury.

People continue to completely overlook the negative impact that having almost no good hitters in the lineup can have on young players like Hicks, Sano, Arcia and possibly Rosario. The last thing I want is to call up Arcia and Sano and be forced to bat them 3rd and 4th because the rest of the lineup sucks that bad.

I'm all for getting youngsters AB's but there is an uninspiring bunch of youngsters competing for multiples spots. If any of them look halfway decent then they will not have a problem getting AB's regardless if Willingham is on the team. Just look at how many AB's AAAA OF'ers got this year.

Wookiee of the Year
10-16-2013, 01:25 PM
I know Espinosa's value has dropped, but that's a pretty big drop. Duensing will likely have some value to a pen starved team, but at the price of his arb contract he's not going to garner much. Doumit is probably worthless at the moment. I could see him getting a sulbaran type guy at next year's deadline if he hits more like 2012 Doumit than 2013.
I wonder if we're too low on Doumit. The Nationals Baseball blog (a member, like Twins Daily, of ESPN's SweetSpot Network, so I assume it has some legitimacy) and its commenters actually seem somewhat positive about the idea of trading for Doumit. For examples, try here (http://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2013/10/monday-quickie-quick-shots.html) and here (http://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2013/10/offseason-position-discussion-first-base.html).

A quote from the blogger there:
"How about Ryan Doumit?
Not a bad idea. They guy can play 1B and C (though not well) and can sit in the OF as well as say, Tyler Moore can. He can also hit lefty to complement Ramos... Do the Nats have what it takes to get him? Not sure. The Nats don't have a deep system and can't afford to trade anything worthwhile."

And from some commenters (prompting the blogger's above quote):
"I agree the Doumit idea is not bad a bad idea at all imo. Very underrated hitter (albeit with defense leaving something to be desired, wherever you put him in the field)"

"Yeah, I like the Doumit idea too as as a catching/OF depth move, but I noticed he hasn't played 1st much in the last several years. He's only making 3.5 million, so I assume that they'll have to give up a legitimate player for him, but last year's numbers maybe dropped his value back to an reasonable target."

...Now obviously, posts on a fan blog and by fan commenters aren't the same as comments from a Front Office, but it does make me think Doumit could have some value to the right team.

mike wants wins
10-16-2013, 02:46 PM
Let's hope Doumit does.....

stringer bell
10-16-2013, 10:37 PM
I agree with much of kab's comments. Having the Hammer hitting in the middle of the order isn't all bad and I think he'll hit more like 2012 than 2013 mostly because of improved health and it will be a walk year. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Sano struggle much like Arcia in 2014--a good amount of power but a disturbing number of K's--when he is recalled. What is important is to develop the young future studs--Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Sano, Rosario. Whatever the plan for Hicks was last year, it didn't work. I would call the results for Arcia mixed, at best. Next year, we should see the debut of Sano (for sure) and probably Rosario and possibly Buxton. How those guys do, along with Hicks and Sano, will determine much of the success of 2014, at least from a position player point of view. If all five are top quadrant second year players, the future will look pretty bright.