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rcfarmer
10-08-2013, 10:22 PM
Reds rumors: Cincinnati could trade Homer Bailey | MLB Injury News (http://www.mlbinjurynews.com/2013/10/reds-rumors-cincinnati-could-trade.html)

If this is a payroll move the Twins have the prospects to get him.

Lets start with Travis Harrison or Trevor Plouffe, the Reds could use a 3rd baseman now or later. Add in Max Kepler and a catching prospect like Matt Koch.

Or dangle Eddie Rosario if they are really contemplating trading Brandon Phillips.

Physics Guy
10-08-2013, 11:17 PM
I think trading for Bailey would be a good move and is more in line with what I expect Ryan to do. Trade for him and then spend some of the money they are hoarding to sign him to a 4-5 year deal. Despite all of the talk, I have my doubts that Ryan spends big on a FA. I truly hope I am wrong, but think the best Ryan will end up with in FA is a Vargas/Feldman type.

Oldgoat_MN
10-09-2013, 12:23 AM
Homer Bailey - 11-12, 3.49 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 209 IP.

I cannot imagine why they would trade him, but if they are so inclined I would sure like TR to make an effort to land him.

Mr. Brooks
10-09-2013, 06:11 AM
Homer Bailey - 11-12, 3.49 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 209 IP.

I cannot imagine why they would trade him, but if they are so inclined I would sure like TR to make an effort to land him.

The article lays out some good thoughts on why they might trade him.
1) He seems intent on hitting FA, and the Reds don't feel they will have the money to sign him at that point, so they would rather get talent back than let him walk.

2) The Reds already have 4 comparable or better SP's as Bailey, and that number becomes 5 if they move Chapman into the rotation, so he is expendable.

Brock Beauchamp
10-09-2013, 07:22 AM
Lets start with Travis Harrison or Trevor Plouffe, the Reds could use a 3rd baseman now or later. Add in Max Kepler and a catching prospect like Matt Koch.

Starting negotiations with Plouffe and Harrison is just enough to get Jocketty to pick up the phone...

to tell you to go jump off a bridge.

But the idea of trading for Bailey is a good one, you'll just need to up the offer quite a bit. Someone more along the lines of Rosario is probably the starting point.

markos
10-09-2013, 08:15 AM
Starting negotiations with Plouffe and Harrison is just enough to get Jocketty to pick up the phone...

to tell you to go jump off a bridge.

But the idea of trading for Bailey is a good one, you'll just need to up the offer quite a bit. Someone more along the lines of Rosario is probably the starting point.

I think that the recent Garza trade is probably a good framework for the type of deal that Jocketty would expect. That leads me to think that the Twins could start with Berrios or Rosario to get the conversation started, but would probably require 3 or 4 players total. Maybe something like Berrios, Hicks and Plouffe, and maybe a pitcher like Baxendale. That is probably too rich for me, but it is a package that would get a return call from Jocketty.

It will obviously depend on the specifics, but in principal I would support this. It would amazing to have someone in the starting rotation that is above average once every five days. Long term, I see 4 outcomes in this offseason acquisition, and most of them are good for the Twins.

1) He signs a long-term deal to stay here. Yay! Their is finally an ace in the starting rotation.
2) The Twins flip him at the trade-deadline, and hopefully recoup most if not all of the prospect value sent to the Reds in the off-season.
3) The Twins keep him all year, offer him a qualifying offer, he don't resign, and get an extra first round pick. Hopefully he had a good year and they recoup some value.
4) He blows out his arm/shoulder, and has no value. The Twins end up with crap.

Brock Beauchamp
10-09-2013, 08:17 AM
Doesn't Bailey have two years of arb left? I don't think he's gone after 2014.

ThePuck
10-09-2013, 08:28 AM
Doesn't Bailey have two years of arb left? I don't think he's gone after 2014.

He's a free agent in 2015, so he can be gone after 2014 if they don't re-sign him

markos
10-09-2013, 08:54 AM
He's a free agent in 2015.

Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...

Brock Beauchamp
10-09-2013, 08:58 AM
Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...

No way.

1. Shields is quite a bit better than Bailey. Bailey is more Edwin Jackson than James Shields.

2. Given how the Shields trade has panned out (more about how Myers has played than any deficiency on the part of Shields), I don't see other teams approaching that kind of prospect trade for David Price, much less Homer Bailey.

ThePuck
10-09-2013, 09:05 AM
Well that changes things a bit. The Reds are probably looking for something similar to the Shields/Myers trade. This could get expensive...

That only gives them one year of control on him. When Shields was traded, he had two years of control and he's a much better pitcher.

stringer bell
10-09-2013, 09:31 AM
I agree with the theory of acquiring a good starter who is going to get expensive, because the Twins have the payroll flexibility to pay the guy and offer an extension. Is Baily the right guy? Not sure, but putting up the numbers he has pitching in a bandbox indicates he is a pretty good pitcher. He will get very wealthy in arb this winter, putting two very nice season back to back. If I were the Twins, I would try to give the Reds position playing prospects and limit the pitchers, but it seems the currency of the realm these days is young pitching.

nicksaviking
10-09-2013, 09:40 AM
I don't think Bailey is a fit. The main reason why Cincinnati is considering moving him is because he is refusing to talk extension. Do the Twins really want to give up a top 100 prospect and some other really good pieces just to have a #3 pitcher in what is shaping up to be another losing season?

Perhaps if the offseason works out great and the Twins magically get Tanaka, Kazmir and some offensive help that looks to make the Twins an immediate contender trading for him would be a wise move. But that doesn't look to be the case. Bailey is best suited for a contender in win-now mode who doesn't have eyes on him past 2014.

markos
10-09-2013, 09:43 AM
That only gives them one year of control on him. When Shields was traded, he had two years of control and he's a much better pitcher.

I misunderstood the "He's a free agent in 2015." to mean after the 2015 season, so I thought there were two years left. My bad.

SpitefulRabbit617
10-09-2013, 09:44 AM
Did Vance Worly get sucked up into a vortex like Ozzie Smith did on the simpsons?

rcfarmer
10-09-2013, 09:48 AM
I don't think Bailey is a fit. The main reason why Cincinnati is considering moving him is because he is refusing to talk extension. Do the Twins really want to give up a top 100 prospect and some other really good pieces just to have a #3 pitcher in what is shaping up to be another losing season?

Perhaps if the offseason works out great and the Twins magically get Tanaka, Kazmir and some offensive help that looks to make the Twins an immediate contender trading for him would be a wise move. But that doesn't look to be the case. Bailey is best suited for a contender in win-now mode who doesn't have eyes on him past 2014.

It could be very John Smiley circa 1992 like, but at some point you just have to take a chance that it could lead to bigger and better times. He is only 27 and right now he would be the Twins #1.

nicksaviking
10-09-2013, 10:18 AM
It could be very John Smiley circa 1992 like, but at some point you just have to take a chance that it could lead to bigger and better times. He is only 27 and right now he would be the Twins #1.

Yeah, but in 1992 the Twins were looking for a replacement for Jack Morris who just lead the team to the World Series. If the Twins were back in that situation again it would be a wise move as I previously stated, but the Twins are almost certainly not going to be contending next year. Would you really want to trade Alex Meyer for one season of Bailey when the Twins still will almost certainly miss the playoffs?

ThePuck
10-09-2013, 10:22 AM
I misunderstood the "He's a free agent in 2015." to mean after the 2015 season, so I thought there were two years left. My bad.

it's all good. we're all on the same page now. :-)

drivlikejehu
10-09-2013, 10:44 AM
A deal would have to be contingent on an extension. My guess is that most if not all teams would make that stipulation before trading for him, because the extension costs the Reds nothing and, if the talks fall through, they can just go to offer #2. And teams will offer more if it's not a rental situation.

Has the ship sailed on Chapman to the rotation? If they moved him out of the closer's role maybe Perkins would be an attractive piece (as part of a package).

rcfarmer
10-09-2013, 11:58 AM
Yeah, but in 1992 the Twins were looking for a replacement for Jack Morris who just lead the team to the World Series. If the Twins were back in that situation again it would be a wise move as I previously stated, but the Twins are almost certainly not going to be contending next year. Would you really want to trade Alex Meyer for one season of Bailey when the Twins still will almost certainly miss the playoffs?
With the one year deal the cost to acquire would be much less than Alex Meyer. The deal only works if you can get him for the right package.

Hosken Bombo Disco
10-09-2013, 12:29 PM
Did Vance Worly get sucked up into a vortex like Ozzie Smith did on the simpsons?

Yes.

Which many people fear is likely with next years' ace / opening day starter ..

nicksaviking
10-09-2013, 01:32 PM
A deal would have to be contingent on an extension. My guess is that most if not all teams would make that stipulation before trading for him, because the extension costs the Reds nothing and, if the talks fall through, they can just go to offer #2. And teams will offer more if it's not a rental situation.[QUOTE]

An extension isn't happening though, that is why the Reds are keen on moving him. Why would he be willing to sign an extension with an unfamiliar losing club when he won't with the only organization he has ever known which happens to be winning with a strong core?

[QUOTE=rcfarmer;171843]With the one year deal the cost to acquire would be much less than Alex Meyer. The deal only works if you can get him for the right package.

That's only because we as Twins fans value Meyer more than others do. A solid arm like Bailey will get a top 100 prospect. Even if it's not Meyer, do you want to give up Rosario and May, or Kepler or whatever other combination of top 12 orgainzational prospects to get one year of a guy on another likely losing team?

ashburyjohn
10-09-2013, 01:33 PM
If Bailey is unwilling to sign an extension with Cincinnati, it's not clear to me why he would sign one with the Twins. If he's focused on free agency, he'll likely view any Twins offer as something a bigger-market team will top.

Brock Beauchamp
10-09-2013, 01:46 PM
If Bailey is unwilling to sign an extension with Cincinnati, it's not clear to me why he would sign one with the Twins. If he's focused on free agency, he'll likely view any Twins offer as something a bigger-market team will top.

Well, for starters, the Twins have more money than the Reds.

But yeah, there's a good chance he won't sign an extension with anyone if he won't do it with Cincinnati.

rcfarmer
10-09-2013, 01:55 PM
If he is viewed as a 5th starter in Cincy, the offer from them is probably not enough to interest him. In Minnesota he would be a front end starter and the deal he could get would be more in line.

I would trade May in a second for him, providing they had worked out a long term deal.

nicksaviking
10-09-2013, 02:04 PM
If he is viewed as a 5th starter in Cincy, the offer from them is probably not enough to interest him. In Minnesota he would be a front end starter and the deal he could get would be more in line.

I would trade May in a second for him, providing they had worked out a long term deal.

May and who else, because the Reds will be wanting a top 100 prospect, so you're including Rosario too.

But now your arguing that not only won't he cost a prospect like Meyer, but that he will also sign an extension because he simply assumes the Twins will pay him more. If that is his hangup, why wouldn't he at least see what the Reds have to offer?

It's just not likely as his refusal to TALK extension means he has his sights on free agency. Whoever gets him, gets him for one year. Contract negotiations start in the 2014/2015 off season.

drivlikejehu
10-09-2013, 02:13 PM
Who says the Reds - a very small market - have made a strong effort to extend him? They have a lot of salary committed in future years already, not including Chapman and Latos, the latter of whom will take serious money to retain.

Pitchers are aware of the injury risks they face, and Bailey would almost certainly take a fair extension offer (though it is possible he wouldn't want to play for some teams).

nicksaviking
10-09-2013, 02:26 PM
Who says the Reds - a very small market - have made a strong effort to extend him? They have a lot of salary committed in future years already, not including Chapman and Latos, the latter of whom will take serious money to retain.

Pitchers are aware of the injury risks they face, and Bailey would almost certainly take a fair extension offer (though it is possible he wouldn't want to play for some teams).

Pitchers are also aware of the inflated contracts middle of the road arms get in free agency, and with another year like the one he just had, he likely knows he's in line for a contract closer to Anibal Sanchez than he is to Kevin Correia.

Mark Sheldon at MLB.com says he isn't interested in an extension. From my experience, our wishes and dreams for quality pitching always gets kicked to the curb as logical reports like this are generally accurate. Besides, Bailey willing to sign an extension would create a pretty big bidding war the Twins would be unlikely willing to win, and it would cost Meyer, and likely much, much more.

Siehbiscuit
10-09-2013, 02:46 PM
The Twins cannot afford to trade Meyer or May, IMO. They are too close to MLB to be moved now. I think if the Twins did offer him a 5-6 year deal at $13-14 per he would likely sign. Bailey was always on the verge of breaking out and finally has. For these guys it is all about the $$$$. The Twins would need to show him that they are committed to him. In 5-6 years when his deal is winding down Meyer, Gibson, May, Stewart, Berrios, etc will just be getting into the arb process. Bailey is a good pitcher that as he hits his prime could and should be our #2 (behind Meyer). When Stewart gets up here in two years he can work his way up into the top 2 conversation. You can trade or draft for young pitching. Be aggressive, TWINS!!

diehardtwinsfan
10-09-2013, 02:56 PM
I don't have a problem going after him, but I don't see why the Twins would trade a top 100 prospect and another prospect for a guy who is going to be around up until the point when the next wave gets good.. and in so doing they weaken the next wave. This makes sense for a contending team, not for the Twins.

ericchri
10-09-2013, 03:08 PM
Seems to me that if you go get him, you try like mad to get him to sign an extension. If he doesn't, he's gone at the deadline for some return prospect (yeah, it might not be quite what you gave up, but assuming he's not terrible it would be something) to make room for Meyer/May if they're not up already. Not sure the Twins operate that way, but that's what I'd like to see them do.

Shane Wahl
10-09-2013, 03:46 PM
Kohl Stewart and Trevor Plouffe for Homer Bailey?

ThePuck
10-09-2013, 03:51 PM
Kohl Stewart and Trevor Plouffe for Homer Bailey?

Stewart can't be traded yet, but hypothetically...I hope not. I'm pretty high on Stewart.

Shane Wahl
10-09-2013, 03:52 PM
Kohl Stewart won't be starting with the Twins until 2017 at the earliest. Maybe he gets a shot for the Reds at the end of 2015, likely 2016.

I would trade Stewart, Plouffe, and Deduno right now for Bailey, with the expectation that the Twins are going to pay Bailey.

Shane Wahl
10-09-2013, 03:53 PM
Stewart can't be traded yet, but hypothetically...I hope not. I'm pretty high on Stewart.

Oops.

Shane Wahl
10-09-2013, 03:55 PM
My thinking was that Bailey is going to be damn good for the next four years. And Stewart won't even be up yet.

Oh well. Plouffe, Deduno, and Santana?

ThePuck
10-09-2013, 03:58 PM
My thinking was that Bailey is going to be damn good for the next four years. And Stewart won't even be up yet.

Oh well. Plouffe, Deduno, and Santana?

I get the reasoning, but for me...I'm not that big of a fan of Bailey's. Not that I wouldn't want him, not that he hasn't become good, but I wouldn't give up our shiny new #4 overall pick for him even if we could.

Your revised offer I'd be fine with, but not sure the Reds would do it.

Shane Wahl
10-09-2013, 04:06 PM
I get the reasoning, but for me...I'm not that big of a fan of Bailey's. Not that I wouldn't want him, not that he hasn't become good, but I wouldn't give up our shiny new #4 overall pick for him even if we could.

Your revised offer I'd be fine with, but not sure the Reds would do it.

Yeah, I actually read the article and realized that a 5th starter included wouldn't matter. What about Santana, Harrison, and Plouffe?

ThePuck
10-09-2013, 04:12 PM
Yeah, I actually read the article and realized that a 5th starter included wouldn't matter. What about Santana, Harrison, and Plouffe?

To be 100% honest, I don't know too much about the Reds' needs to give a real answer. I'm sure there are others in here who can give a more informed opinion on the subject, so I'll have to defer to them. Sorry :-)

BG816
10-09-2013, 04:38 PM
This is totally anecdotal, but trading any talent of value for Bailey would be a mistake. How Bailey has a few no-hitters is stunning to me. I lived in Cincinnati for 3 years coinciding with the rise of the Reds as a power team and the call up of Bailey. It felt like every time I went to a Reds game over those years Homer was the starter, and I remember on at least 2 occasions he gave up more than a few home runs and just a ton of hits. I don't know what it is about him, but he's shown me he is true to his first name.

(I'd make a terrible GM)

Shane Wahl
10-09-2013, 04:47 PM
This is totally anecdotal, but trading any talent of value for Bailey would be a mistake. How Bailey has a few no-hitters is stunning to me. I lived in Cincinnati for 3 years coinciding with the rise of the Reds as a power team and the call up of Bailey. It felt like every time I went to a Reds game over those years Homer was the starter, and I remember on at least 2 occasions he gave up more than a few home runs and just a ton of hits. I don't know what it is about him, but he's shown me he is true to his first name.

(I'd make a terrible GM)

Hahaha. No, I know since he was another player (along with, I am not kidding, Phil Hughes, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, and Chris Young (player)) that I was all kung-ho and proud about drafting in my fantasy league back in that era. Oh my GODDDDDD.

But that ship has been righted these past two seasons. I am not strongly serious about it, but wondering what it would take.

BG816
10-09-2013, 05:56 PM
Hahaha. No, I know since he was another player (along with, I am not kidding, Phil Hughes, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, and Chris Young (player)) that I was all kung-ho and proud about drafting in my fantasy league back in that era. Oh my GODDDDDD.

But that ship has been righted these past two seasons. I am not strongly serious about it, but wondering what it would take.

Yeah, I know he's gotten better. And I don't hold grudges, but I guess this is one that just won't go away. He was so hyped when he came up and just crapped his pants in front of me far too many times. Who knows, maybe it was me.

And I love it when the inevitable bidding war starts every year for Delmon in my league's auction draft. I just sit back and watch the incompetence draft the incompetent. The irony last year is that the guy you got him is Jewish.

Thrylos
10-09-2013, 06:40 PM
My thinking was that Bailey is going to be damn good for the next four years. And Stewart won't even be up yet.

Oh well. Plouffe, Deduno, and Santana?

That would not bring much :)

And I have no idea why the Reds would want prospects. Last time I checked, the Reds were a contending team that just fired their manager for not making it to the post-season. The Twins do not have much spare MLB level talent. Will they be willing to trade Perkins (maybe even straight up?) Will something like Dozier, Fien and/or Burton interest the Reds? Or maybe Willingham and/or Doumit in the trade?

I just do not see a match here...

Shane Wahl
10-09-2013, 06:45 PM
That would not bring much :)

And I have no idea why the Reds would want prospects. Last time I checked, the Reds were a contending team that just fired their manager for not making it to the post-season. The Twins do not have much spare MLB level talent. Will they be willing to trade Perkins (maybe even straight up?) Will something like Dozier, Fien and/or Burton interest the Reds? Or maybe Willingham and/or Doumit in the trade?

I just do not see a match here...

Well, Fien or the return of Burton could spice it up. The Reds could be interested in prospects though, Plouffe and Deduno wouldn't qualify there. Certainly, Willingham and Doumit . . . uh, a team in the NL would have to be rather dumb to trade for those two . . .

gunnarthor
10-09-2013, 07:35 PM
I like the idea but I agree that the Reds would want more "win now" pieces than prospects. Ryan tried to trade for Cueto a few years ago but couldn't get it done so at least we know Ryan will look at the Reds.

If they do want to move Chapman to the pen, I think Perkins would be a real nice piece for them and, if he was healthy, Willingham would be what they need in LF. Unfortunately, they have Phillips signed long term at second so, unless they somehow moved him (unlikely) Dozier isn't a fit. I guess wait and see who their new manager is, how he wants to use Chapman and then try and make some sort of package around Perkins. I'd do Perkins, Willingham and a solid prospect but I don't think Willingham has the value right now to push a trade.

Oxtung
10-09-2013, 07:53 PM
I think there are some interesting possibilities for trades with the Reds, though most would be creative, big trades.

Starting simple first though, if the Twins just want to move prospects Meyer, Rosario or Gibson would have to front the package. Assuming the Twins don't want to move pitching that leaves Rosario but Reds have Brandon Phillips signed through 2017.

If the Reds, and more specifically their new manager, are looking to move Chapman back into the rotation then Perkins seems like a nice fit. As an organization we know they value closers and they are cash strapped so his cheap salary would be a plus. I'm not sure a single season of Bailey moves the needle for the Twins though.

What if the Twins included Rosario, in addition to Perkins, and the Reds sent back Bailey and their top pitching prospect Robert Stephenson. He is extremely highly regarded, he will probably be ranked ahead of Rosario and potentially ahead of Meyer. The Twins end of that deal is probably a little light so some other player(s) would have to be added to even things out but the Reds could have their pick of our next tier as far as I'm concerned. I would even offer up Berrios if that is what it took.

So what do people think of a Perkins + Rosario + one or two of Kepler/Santana/Polanco/Harrison/Berrios for Homer Bailey and Robert Stephenson? As other have said if Bailey is unwilling to sign long term we could still look to move him at the deadline or extend him a qualifying offer but the Twins would also be able to come out of this with another long term building block and this one has front of the rotation potential. I know I would feel much better with 3 potential #1 starters instead of the 2 we currently have. Of course this is all predicated upon the Reds moving Chapman to the rotation which is anything but a given.

The other option is to try and get a third team involved if the Reds aren't interested in Rosario (presumably because of Brandon Phillips). Bailey to the Twins, Rosario + others to [Insert team here], [Insert team here] players/prospects back to the Reds.

TheLeviathan
10-09-2013, 08:15 PM
Why would anyone, much less Cincy, want Plouffe? Even as a throw-in?

markos
10-10-2013, 08:14 AM
Why would anyone, much less Cincy, want Plouffe? Even as a throw-in?

Some smart team is going to do with Plouffe exactly what Baltimore did with Danny Valencia. They will snatch him up someday for next to nothing, give him 200 at bats a season against lefties, watch him hit .275/.350/.500 for a couple years, and look like geniuses.

kab21
10-10-2013, 09:01 AM
It's extremely unlikely that he's signing an extension so it would be silly to trade for him. Just wait for him to hit FA a year from now and spend the big bucks. Despite everyone's complaints about payroll there is a reason that it is dropping and it's so they can spend on some legitimately good players instead of filling a bunch of holes with marginal older players.

nicksaviking
10-10-2013, 09:09 AM
People are talking about moving Perkins, Rosario and other top prospects. Why is this even a consideration for a 1 year rental? As Kab above said, if we want him, why not wait until he hits free agency as he appears dead set on? Then you get to keep the prospects and the Twins will hopefully be another year removed from this quagmire.

I'm not giving up anything of value for one year of a guy who can't realistically get this club to the playoffs singlehandedly.

ThePuck
10-10-2013, 09:25 AM
[QUOTE=kab21;172001 Despite everyone's complaints about payroll there is a reason that it is dropping and it's so they can spend on some legitimately good players instead of filling a bunch of holes with marginal older players.[/QUOTE]

That's an assumption. We don't know they'll do that.

That's similar to saying we can't sign guys to 4-6 contracts because we need to save money for the prospects we have coming up who will be due big contracts...an argument that's been flown around. First, we don't know how many, if any, will be worthy of big contracts to begin with...but there's an assumption quite a few will (another ties to the assumption that so many of our prospects will be so good we'll be competitors by 2015)...and Mauer's contract will coming off the books in that time frame as.

So I'm not sold on the idea that for sure we'll be spending money on legitimately good players down the road...not ones we get in FA at least.

kab21
10-10-2013, 10:14 AM
It would take them 5 years to come close to 100M payroll again if they were only signing their own guys. You can have your opinion but I really don't think they will wait that long. Will it happen this offseason? Maybe, maybe not.

ThePuck
10-10-2013, 10:23 AM
It would take them 5 years to come close to 100M payroll again if they were only signing their own guys. You can have your opinion but I really don't think they will wait that long. Will it happen this offseason? Maybe, maybe not.

I don't think we'll only sign our own guys, my doubt comes from the belief they will sign 'legitimately good players instead of filling a bunch of holes with marginal older players.'. I don't think they'll spend the money it needs to get those kind of players in FA.

And yeah, I think it'll be awhile before they reach 100M again. The guys they are counting on to take us to the promised land won't be due any kind of real raise for a few years, seeing as how most of them aren't in the majors yet...and then Mauer's contract comes off the books..

ashburyjohn
10-10-2013, 10:38 AM
do with Plouffe exactly what Baltimore did with Danny Valencia. They will snatch him up someday for next to nothing

Yes, that looks like the right price for that kind of talent. If the team you're trying to acquire said talent from asks too much in return, you set your sights on a Randy Ruiz type as an equivalent alternative. Righties who can handle lefty pitching but not do much else are there to be found, on the minor-league free agent pile, if a GM wants to look.

Still hoping Plouffe does something to raise his value to the world, of course, and while he's still a Twin.

ericchri
10-10-2013, 11:00 AM
People are talking about moving Perkins, Rosario and other top prospects. Why is this even a consideration for a 1 year rental? As Kab above said, if we want him, why not wait until he hits free agency as he appears dead set on? Then you get to keep the prospects and the Twins will hopefully be another year removed from this quagmire.

I'm not giving up anything of value for one year of a guy who can't realistically get this club to the playoffs singlehandedly.

I probably agree with you for the most part, I wouldn't want to straight up trade Rosario for 1 year of Bailey, knowing that Bailey was gone after the year for certain and I had nothing to show for the trade but that 1 year of him pitching. But it's along the lines of not knowing what will happen next year and taking a chance things will break right. Cleveland was good this year because essentially their entire starting pitching staff all improved simultaneously. There's no way you can expect that to happen, but apparently it can.

The question comes down to how much do you really have to give up for that 1 year. Would it be similar to what KC did to get Ervin Santana for the year, maybe a little more? I'm not good at guessing that type of thing. But if you trade for him now, you get a chance to convince him this is the kind of place he'd want to sign for longer. If you wait til the offseason you're just bidding against everyone without anything to show in favor of Minnesota (arguments about how our team is lousy right now is kinda beside the point I'm trying for at the moment). If you still don't have any success getting him to want to sign a long-term contract and the team is lousy again, trade him at the deadline to get something back. Different piece than what you traded to get him, but still something.

If we come back next season and Hicks has learned how to hit, Gibson knows how to pitch in the majors, and Plouffe, Willingham, and Arcia start bombing home runs, maybe having Bailey there to front the rotation makes them competitive. It's a long-shot of course and I certainly don't expect it to happen, but weird things happen sometimes, and if you can find the right deal for Bailey it's worth trying.

TheLeviathan
10-10-2013, 11:26 AM
Some smart team is going to do with Plouffe exactly what Baltimore did with Danny Valencia. They will snatch him up someday for next to nothing, give him 200 at bats a season against lefties, watch him hit .275/.350/.500 for a couple years, and look like geniuses.

It's the next to nothing part that makes this different. We are suggesting landing a very solid young starter. Far from nothing.

Shane Wahl
10-10-2013, 11:38 AM
I am operating on the assumption that the Twins would work out a deal to keep him for 4 years.

Making a trade to the Reds without giving up top prospects would be fantastic in my view. They don't want to pay the salary and they are looking to help out their offense for 2014.

Nick Nelson
10-10-2013, 02:36 PM
The more I think about it, the more I love the idea of pursuing Bailey, if indeed he's made available. He has everything the Twins should be looking for: youth, durability, front-of-rotation ability. A contract extension would be a prerequisite of any trade, and I'm sure it'd be costly, but the Twins can afford it. As Doogie noted (https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/388383573184499712), there's a tie within the organization -- Wayne Krivsky drafted Bailey when he was GM of the Reds.

DomeDog
10-10-2013, 03:35 PM
To re-but the previous Bailey anecdote: I watched, with my own two eyes, Homer Bailey throw a no hitter using only his fastball. The man can pitch. We need that.

Would he want to sign an extension with the 2013 Twins? No. Would he want to sign an extension to pitch 3 more years with the Twins? Probably. With two of the top 3 prospects in the game and more slated to arrive in those three years, not a bad place to stick around. That's where I'd want be.

Interesting that Scherzer and Price have been thrown around as potentially available too, recently.

markos
10-10-2013, 04:15 PM
It's the next to nothing part that makes this different. We are suggesting landing a very solid young starter. Far from nothing.

I was referring to teams not wanting Plouffe even as a throw in. I agree that he isn't going headline any trade for Bailey, but I feel like he would be much more attractive than a Pedro Hernandez or a Eduardo Escobar as the 3rd or 4th piece in a trade.

Willihammer
10-10-2013, 04:19 PM
If the Reds are going to shift Chapman into his spot then maybe Perkins or Thielbar would be a starting point.

Trevor0333
10-11-2013, 01:17 AM
Plouffe has very little trade value other than being possible filler at a position of need if the other team needed a versatile INF who can hit lefties.

Kohl Stewart is not being given up on for Homer Bailey. Harrison is a good start though. Harrison & Dozier would prob be a good base package but personally I think I'd want a deal in principle being set to resign Bailey atleast before making the trade.

rcfarmer
10-20-2013, 10:17 AM
I still would like the Twins to acquire Homer Bailey but this article points out just how lucky some teams were to not acquire Eric Bedard in 2008.
The Erik Bedard Trade And What Could Have Been - Orioles Blog - Baltimore Sports Report (http://baltimoresportsreport.com/erik-bedard-trade-orioles-44886.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=erik-bedard-trade-orioles)

The highlights for those that don't want to read the whole article:

Adam Jones (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-baltimoresportsreport.com) was the centerpiece of the deal, while George Sherrill (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sherrge01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-baltimoresportsreport.com) was the frosting on the cake. Chris Tillman (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tillmch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-baltimoresportsreport.com)? He was the kicker, the added piece that pushed the teams to sign the paperwork.

The names floating around should raise some eyebrows such as Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and Jonathan Broxton (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3140986&name=winter_meetings) from the Dodgers or Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller (http://nypost.com/2007/12/04/eyeing-as-os/) from the Tigers.

an SB Nation post from December of 2007 (http://www.faketeams.com/2007/12/10/16522/884) claims that a Reds insider is 75 percent sure the Reds will deal Josh Hamilton (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-baltimoresportsreport.com), Homer Bailey, and Joey Votto to the Baltimore Orioles for Erik Bedard.

Maybe I will push for him next year as a free agent.